maomao
普費斯
ONS does hospital admission by age but is two weeks behind. Current latest figures are up to 18th December.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The ONS publishes such data, but that's always a couple of weeks behind, whereas it's only been in the last week that I've noticed an increasing number of medics commenting on the situation.
I see no reason not to trust them on what they are saying about what is happening on the front-line.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
I'm not saying I don't trust them, but they're still anecdotes. There could be lots of explanations for what they're seeing, such as younger people being funneled to particular hospitals or whatever.
maomao
普費斯
It will take at least 2-3 weeks for data on new variant to show up on those graphs.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Not really, the new variant was spread quickly during November. The greater the difference in age profile, the sooner it would start showing up.
andysays
Love and solidarity
From what I've seen, the reports from doctors about much greater numbers of younger people being hospitalised have only happened in the past couple of weeks (there may be a number of reasons for this, not just connected to the new variant).
Do you at least accept that this reported increase won't yet have shown up in the official figures?
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Of course not, the ONS figures are from the 18th of December, why would I expect anything from the last two weeks to show up there?
andysays
Love and solidarity
So why are you still arguing the toss about it?Of course not, the ONS figures are from the 18th of December, why would I expect anything from the last two weeks to show up there?
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
FFS I just asked for data to support the anecdotes. I appreciate such data might not be available yet. Why do you have to try and make everything into an argument?
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andysays
Love and solidarity
It looked to me like you were trying to make it into an argument by suggesting that the reports from doctors aren't significant, but I'm glad to hear that this isn't the case.
prunus
Tick tock.
FWIW I believe this is the latest matched cohort analysis of NVcovid vs original, published 28th Dec
[edit: apologies, said this was 21st Dec, that was technical briefing 1, this one was 28th]
https://assets.publishing.service.g...cal_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf
In summary it says that that the new variant appears to be behaving similarly to the original in clinical outcomes, but is spreading more rapidly in younger age groups (if I’ve read it right).
It is preliminary data of course, and as it says itself clinical outcomes are fluctuating data, as some people not hospitalised at the time of the report may become so later. Hopefully they’ll update with a new report soon (if they haven’t already - anyone?).
[edit: apologies, said this was 21st Dec, that was technical briefing 1, this one was 28th]
https://assets.publishing.service.g...cal_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf
In summary it says that that the new variant appears to be behaving similarly to the original in clinical outcomes, but is spreading more rapidly in younger age groups (if I’ve read it right).
It is preliminary data of course, and as it says itself clinical outcomes are fluctuating data, as some people not hospitalised at the time of the report may become so later. Hopefully they’ll update with a new report soon (if they haven’t already - anyone?).
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
New UK COVID-19 vaccine recommendations say 'it is reasonable' for people to mix and match different shots, even though there's not yet evidence that works
The British government has authorized its second COVID-19 vaccine, and now suggests people could get one shot of each.
www.businessinsider.com
This seems a bit reckless honestly
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
I was reading about the "mix and match" thing earlier and it does seem that it's really just for situations where it simply is not possible to deliver a second dose of the same vaccine.
New UK COVID-19 vaccine recommendations say 'it is reasonable' for people to mix and match different shots, even though there's not yet evidence that works
The British government has authorized its second COVID-19 vaccine, and now suggests people could get one shot of each.
This seems a bit reckless honestly
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Sorry, haven't been following this thread very well, so this has probably been posted New COVID-19 variant growing rapidly in England | Imperial News | Imperial College London
"The new variant has a transmission advantage of 0.4 to 0.7 in reproduction number compared to the previously observed strain"
That's pretty scary, given the lowest we got r in the summer was 0.7. Seems to me that means the new variant can't be controlled without very strick lockdowns. Surely they'll have to stop most people going to work as well as to schools. As in, it needs to look more like the first lockdown when the streets were empty than the second, when the roads seemed as busy as usual.
"The new variant has a transmission advantage of 0.4 to 0.7 in reproduction number compared to the previously observed strain"
That's pretty scary, given the lowest we got r in the summer was 0.7. Seems to me that means the new variant can't be controlled without very strick lockdowns. Surely they'll have to stop most people going to work as well as to schools. As in, it needs to look more like the first lockdown when the streets were empty than the second, when the roads seemed as busy as usual.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
But families were getting together for Christmas, not during November.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Thanks, that makes sense.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
We wouldn’t see Christmas infections in hospital yet anyway, so that’s irrelevant as far as the anecdotes of young people in hospitals are concerned.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
But it's a useful harbinger, and indicative of what we might expect, even if it doesn't prove anything right now.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Depends on when they started getting together. Two of my housemates went home to their families over a week before.
In any case, we don't yet have the data, as you say.
purenarcotic
Conveniently Pocket Sized
People started breaking Covid rules when they saw those with privilege ignore them | Daisy Fancourt
Compliance must be seen as the norm, or people will not stick to the restrictions, says Dr Daisy Fancourt, leader of the UK Covid-19 Social Study
maomao
普費斯
If people were meeting from the 23rd (or earlier, I have classmates who claimed to be back with their families from the 18th) then some infections through family meetings would have been hitting hospitals by now. Though maybe not most of them.
prunus
Tick tock.
Well, assuming doing that creating a higher ratio of intra-youth to intra- or inter-other-age-group infection opportunities, then yes it will have to some extent, by definition. It doesn’t mean that this variant came as a result of that selection pressure though - evolution is not perfectly reactive; many organisms live slightly mal-adapted to their niches, especially when niches change rapidly (eg the anthropocene).
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planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Well, ok, maybe.
But let's see how well this tweet ages. 'Standard plans' having gone so smoothly so far in this pandemic.
Also lots of 'likely' 'when additional info becomes available' etc in that.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
Saw a scientist on Twitter saying they now think that rise in <19 year-old new variant cases in November might just have been because schools were the only thing open. More work to be done before they know for sure.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
Some observations on the test and trace system from personal experience.
Background - our family (me, Mrs W, daughters W1 (15) and W2 (13)) are taking part in the ONS study. This involves weekly PCR swab testing for 5 weeks then monthly for a year.
On 16 Dec W2 tested positive (we got the results on the 21st) so the family went into isolation. She only had mild cold symptoms - we certainly wouldn't have gone for a test off the back of them. W1 then developed the same cold symptoms so we got her a postal test on the 24th and Mrs W the same so she went for a walk-in test on 27th - both were positive. I stayed symptom free and we all had the ONS weekly test on the 29th which found that W2 was now negative and the rest of us positive.
The testing regime has been pretty efficient and of course we are lucky to be on the ONS study - without that we wouldn't have gone for tests as none of us have had classic Covid symptoms.
The trace bit has been less good; there are two main problems:
1. It is set up on the basis that you are the first to be positive in your household. You are required to give details of people you have been in contact with and they are required to isolate for the relevant period. The problem comes when you have had it and gone through your isolation period and have no further symptoms. The guidance is clear that you are no longer required to isolate even if someone else in your household tests positive. However if they do, they are required to give your name and details and you then get further texts/emails telling you to self-isolate, which is incorrect.
2. It does not handle children well. I had to deal with the NHS when W1 was positive because she is under 16 (Mrs W did W2). That's all fine. However, I had to give my mobile number, and then received texts telling me to self-isolate rather than her. This is a known bug and I was told to ignore them by the NHS person i.e. they related to her not to me. Not ideal. Worse, when I subsequently tested positive and received another text saying 'you have recently tested positive and need to self-isolate' I assumed it was for her not me (I did get a call later that day which cleared up the confusion).
Finally, I still haven't received the code from the NHS to put into the tracker app to alert people that I might have come into contact with. I assume this is due to the system being overwhelmed and struggling to cope with numbers rather than the systemic problems above.
Background - our family (me, Mrs W, daughters W1 (15) and W2 (13)) are taking part in the ONS study. This involves weekly PCR swab testing for 5 weeks then monthly for a year.
On 16 Dec W2 tested positive (we got the results on the 21st) so the family went into isolation. She only had mild cold symptoms - we certainly wouldn't have gone for a test off the back of them. W1 then developed the same cold symptoms so we got her a postal test on the 24th and Mrs W the same so she went for a walk-in test on 27th - both were positive. I stayed symptom free and we all had the ONS weekly test on the 29th which found that W2 was now negative and the rest of us positive.
The testing regime has been pretty efficient and of course we are lucky to be on the ONS study - without that we wouldn't have gone for tests as none of us have had classic Covid symptoms.
The trace bit has been less good; there are two main problems:
1. It is set up on the basis that you are the first to be positive in your household. You are required to give details of people you have been in contact with and they are required to isolate for the relevant period. The problem comes when you have had it and gone through your isolation period and have no further symptoms. The guidance is clear that you are no longer required to isolate even if someone else in your household tests positive. However if they do, they are required to give your name and details and you then get further texts/emails telling you to self-isolate, which is incorrect.
2. It does not handle children well. I had to deal with the NHS when W1 was positive because she is under 16 (Mrs W did W2). That's all fine. However, I had to give my mobile number, and then received texts telling me to self-isolate rather than her. This is a known bug and I was told to ignore them by the NHS person i.e. they related to her not to me. Not ideal. Worse, when I subsequently tested positive and received another text saying 'you have recently tested positive and need to self-isolate' I assumed it was for her not me (I did get a call later that day which cleared up the confusion).
Finally, I still haven't received the code from the NHS to put into the tracker app to alert people that I might have come into contact with. I assume this is due to the system being overwhelmed and struggling to cope with numbers rather than the systemic problems above.
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
Slightly puzzled to see a sweet shop and cash converters open when I was in town earlier. Not sure where they stand in terms of the regs though.
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