maomao
普費斯
One's a rolling average (ONS) and one's the actual last seven days (graun).
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I cant make that claim yet because when going by date of death, daily figures have so far in the second wave maxed out at under half the level of the first wave peak. And there is not a straightforward mapping between how many deaths the number of people in hospital with covid-19 implies, and its probably a fair bit different in the 2nd wave compared to the first wave. I can still say that I expect number of daily deaths to rise in response to numbers of cases and admissions increasing again, but I wouldnt try to guess what levels it will hit.
So far for me the second waves horrible number of deaths is more about how long high rates of death persist rather than quite how high the peak is, and the real picture is obviously a combination of both of these things.
I'm annoyed that media etc arent counting second wave deaths in a way that allows people to get a sense of the second wave compared to the first.
If I count all deaths as being where the actual death happened from September 1st onwards, for the UK using the 'death within 28 days of a positive test' figures I have 41,559 first wave deaths and 27,487 second wave deaths so far. Using ONS 'covid-19 mentioned on death certificate figures' instead, I have 57,641 first wave deaths and 23,658 second wave deaths, but their figures currently only go up to December 11th. I cannot repeat the exercise properly using excess deaths instead, because the excess deaths figures are failing to capture all the second wave covid deaths, presumably because there are less people than normal dying for other reasons, including flu.
It is my intention not to be on here with graphs and figures for at least Christmas eve->Boxing day. So I'm getting this out of my system over the next hour or so and will then break with that side of things for as long as I can get away with.
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
and what i cannot figure out is that is rising like this when the only thing left to do is go to sainsburys! we all wear masks, space, face, blah blah. So how when London is like a ghost town, that these numbers are rising so fast.23/12: 881
I am seized by moments of terror, I have to admit - anyone else the same?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The 'burbs are not ghost towns; they're where we're shopping, living and dying.
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
i guess. One can only imagine what it'd be like if there were no restrictions?
elbows
Well-Known Member
And following up on the last post about deaths, here is the UK deaths by date of death graph, with colour-coding showing when those deaths were reported. I havent posted it for a while because there was quite a lengthly plateau/small decrease period and there is a fair amount of lag waiting to see if gaps will remain gaps or will be filled in by later data. I suppose there are now signs of the v-shape that we've already seen with bits of hospital data for that period.
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
or if they let a lot of people have a jolly ol family knees up at xmas! madness!
Not sure I'd quite call Hackney the 'burbs but... Still loads of people out and about, think the local street market is at least partially open, people are still meeting up (my upstairs neighbours had a load of people round at the weekend...
) and so on.Yeah, very much seized by terror.
In terms of the numbers rising for London, we have to consider that it was only put into Tier 3 then 4 a week ago, so the positive tests coming through now will be largely infections acquired under Tier 2. But the situation overall - grimmety grim
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
The numbers can change rapidly daily, and perhaps this is why we shouldn't take notice of one day's particular figure.
But, um, just checked mine again. My local town, which was 600 yesterday is 3200 today. Where I work has gone from 1300 to 4000.
Per 100,000 obvs.
But, um, bad round here, has been for a few weeks now.
But, um, just checked mine again. My local town, which was 600 yesterday is 3200 today. Where I work has gone from 1300 to 4000.
Per 100,000 obvs.
But, um, bad round here, has been for a few weeks now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And that same data but in the broader context including the first wave, just via simple screenshot of the official dashboard.
As mentioned previously, Im not too fixated on whether the levels reach the same peak as the first wave, its the area occupied by the graph that counts, and what this wave has lacked in height can easily be made up for with width(time).
As mentioned previously, Im not too fixated on whether the levels reach the same peak as the first wave, its the area occupied by the graph that counts, and what this wave has lacked in height can easily be made up for with width(time).
Numbers
an ting!
Where I am in Newham it’s ridiculous how people behave. Been like it the whole way through too.Not sure I'd quite call Hackney the 'burbs but... Still loads of people out and about, think the local street market is at least partially open, people are still meeting up (my upstairs neighbours had a load of people round at the weekend...
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
i have moved firmly and quickly over the last month or so to the "grass them up camp".Not sure I'd quite call Hackney the 'burbs but... Still loads of people out and about, think the local street market is at least partially open, people are still meeting up (my upstairs neighbours had a load of people round at the weekend...
elbows
Well-Known Member
This likely reflects both improved treatments, but also potentially different admissions policies, and also the large number of people who are probably in hospital for other reasons but then tested positive in hospital, either because they were positive before admission or because they subsequently caught it in hospital. Lag between hospitalisations and deaths/death reporting should also be considered to be a factor, but I cant tell how big a one until I see more of what is to come in future with all these stats.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Yeah, very much seized by terror.
In terms of the numbers rising for London, we have to consider that it was only put into Tier 3 then 4 a week ago, so the positive tests coming through now will be largely infections acquired under Tier 2. But the situation overall - grimmety grim
Incubation time is up to two weeks do there is a definite lag
That'll be because of some considerations including but not limited to
1) a lot of deaths* in the first wave were people who were already weak and quite poorly anyway - the virus gave them a shitty nudge.
2) in the first wave the hospitals didn't know what it was or how to treat it. They have learned an absolutely gobsmackingly huge amount through this whole thing
* No; not all of them, but a very lot.
Steel Icarus
we move
It's a horrible combo of vague shit from the gov and people who won't behave. Sometimes it's very hard to like people very much.Not sure I'd quite call Hackney the 'burbs but... Still loads of people out and about, think the local street market is at least partially open, people are still meeting up (my upstairs neighbours had a load of people round at the weekend...
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
The whole world wants them. We have only secured so many and we can't roll them out til we get them. The logistics are very complicated and it's this government.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I think supplies of the initial vaccine are not yet sufficient to do that, and the cold chain distribution also isn't there because it has to be kept at -70C.
Assuming the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine is approved (the data is with the UK approvals body at the moment) then, because it can be stored in a normal fridge, they might be able to significantly increase vaccinations.
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
weltweit
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
The following map is from an article about the latest tiers but I am posting it to demonstrate what an amazingly shit idea putting Cornwall and the Isle of Wight in tier 1 when the national measures ended was.
From Millions more join tier 4 Covid restrictions in England from Boxing Day
From Millions more join tier 4 Covid restrictions in England from Boxing Day
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
This is the link to the series: BBC Radio 4 - The Life ScientificI didn't either TBHGuessed it maybe takes 10 days for the first dose to have any appreciable effect. For enough antibodies to develop.
Link would be good. I'll give that Life Scientific podcast a go.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Hello from Wales
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Yes, my area was moved from tier 2 to 4 today (well, from Boxing Day), we have been on the border of a tier 4 zone since Sunday and the town is suddenly mobbed, Frau Bahn went to the gym today and the staff there were saying how nice it is to see so many new faces, none members, they’ve just piled in from Guildford. So glad we’re going to 4.
But once in four essential shops need to be essential, it was mostly that way in lockdown 1, lockdown 2 all manner of shops declared themselves essential and many more were doing click and collect, none of this is keeping people at home and away from each other, it needs to stop.
Nice to see you back BigMoaner hope you’re keeping well.
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