Looby
Well-Known Member
Absolute madness, especially when you consider that a lot of people on the IOW travel to Southampton, Portsmouth and surrounding areas daily for work, healthcare, shopping.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I replied to you the other day, saying I expected both you & us would be going into tier 4 soon.
Glad you are as pleased as I am that it has happened.
I've got idiots around here moaning about it, because our numbers are still fairly low, despite the fact they are more than doubling every week, bloody idiots.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
They could transport the Pfizer vaccine in Pritti Patel’s heart.
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
I don't expect she is that big hearted, we are going to need a lot!!
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Logistics, the one we have now is stored at -70 degrees or something, bloody cold anyway, plus just plain manufacturing and distribution bottlenecks
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
I replied to you the other day, saying I expected both you & us would be going into tier 4 soon.
Glad you are as pleased as I am that it has happened.
I've got idiots around here moaning about it, because our numbers are still fairly low, despite the fact they are more than doubling every week, bloody idiots.
Yeah, shame the pubs will close as I love a pub, plus I’ve been getting well in to swimming and that will close too, but small price to pay. We’re having Xmas with just us now, both our mums are in tier 4 areas and we binned them off on Saturday. Seems everyone has a good reason, a valid excuse and so on. This thing is never going to end unless we just lock ourselves away and stop giving it the chance to keep spreading.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
It has to exist to be a viable transport option
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
What are the raw numbers like because an increase from 2 to 8 is 200%?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
My worst months were early on due to a family bereavement. Now it's more of a deep depression about the whole thing. Didn't think the vaccine would be a panacea, but the government's continuing failures and the emergence of the new strains make it look like we'll be in shit street for a long time.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I think we have about 3 months before it feels like we're really emerging from the doldrums, or that's how it'll feel at least. Dealing with short nights and crap weather and isolation is going to be rough. Once spring is here it will be easier to cope.
Fatigue for everyone has long set in at this point, if there wasn't an increase in mental health issues before there will be. Fatigue is also what's contributing to lockdown violations.
Maybe 6 months until we get 50% vaccinated but things will start to feel easier before then I think.
New strains are standard, the vaccine should work fine against them for foreseeable. Long term it'll be like the flu-jab in identifying which strains are out there each year or so.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Went past a couple of local testing centres today, out on an emergency "click and collect" foray. Essential - not seasonal - stuff missed off the food delivery, mainly, so needed a bit of a search.
Both places were a) very soggy as it has pelted down with rain all day and b) almost deserted. ie staff only - especially so at the more local establishment.
Annoying, as some of my team were interested in getting tests, but you had to have symptoms to book and they didn't accept walk-ups.
Doubly annoying as the local case rate was nearly 1450 / 100,000 on approx 100 cases in the last seven days ending c15th December (or thereabouts)
e2a - that rise started around the 27th November, when local cases were in in single figures ...
Both places were a) very soggy as it has pelted down with rain all day and b) almost deserted. ie staff only - especially so at the more local establishment.
Annoying, as some of my team were interested in getting tests, but you had to have symptoms to book and they didn't accept walk-ups.
Doubly annoying as the local case rate was nearly 1450 / 100,000 on approx 100 cases in the last seven days ending c15th December (or thereabouts)
e2a - that rise started around the 27th November, when local cases were in in single figures ...
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I care about the shape, the trajectory, far more than the absolute numbers when it comes to measuring effect of different restrictions and relaxations. Paying too much attention to how low a base level the rises may be starting from is one of the mistakes not to make when setting tiers.
But here are both for the Isle of Wight from the dashboard. The numbers have since gone higher than the text in the box shows, eg 32 on the 19th.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I suppose given that I already advised in the past that I wasnt really sure quite how bad the pandemic could get in winter in advance of actually experiencing a winter with this virus, the growing fears about the mutations are simply more unknowns on top of that. Plus the added unkowns about quite how far the government will go, which the variant strains clearly add to. eg it gives them an excuse to ditch previous weak plans and u-turn on various matters, and can affect public attitudes towards the pandemic, so in some senses it could actually help. But if the early analysis is right then these mutations can really make the numbers game much harder to balance, its going to be grim. As for the Welsh and South African strains, I havent read enough on those yet.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think it's one of those 'the hope that gets you' scenarios. When the vaccine was approved, few people thought 'that's it, game over'. But it did add the idea that there was a way out. The real worry now is the vaccines don't work or work as well I suppose.
For me, it's more that even if everything goes completely to plan, it's going to take ages for people to be vaccinated so we've at least another what, three/four/more? months of this.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
If we shoot past spring I'll be pissed, it's what I've focused on all year. I knew this was a marathon not a sprint but it's hard to keep going emotionally and psychologically even if you know on paper it'll take time. Emotions > Logic so that raw experience still leaves you drained.
The government's constant fuck ups are not helping the stress levels, people aren't meant to live under constant strain.
I'm going to pretend you didn't just say that.
There's a little bit on this vaccine question, and much more else about the new strain more generally, in today's Guardian piece by Sharon Peacock-- IMO it's pretty good, detailed, and explanatory.
Guardian headline said:
Sharon Peacock said:
Also, just a small bit about possible vaccine resistance of the neww strain -- reassuring, I thought :
I know there's also been other scientists discussing the risk of vaccine resistance already, and in more detail.
Maybe others have relevant links? (I think 2hats posted a link earlier up??) ....... cheers
What I've seen has been all 'what's known so far' stuff, but I haven't yet seen any piece being really pessimistic about vaccine efficacy declines with the new strain ...
I said so far!
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Embarassingly, I haven't been aware of the recently-started Covid Mutations thread, which contains a lot more detailed science.
Lots of links on that thread to various articles, plenty found by 2hats , and some containing vaccine-resistance information
Not something I often do, this, but I'm going to cross-post my above post ( #28,880 ) about Sharon Peacock's article onto the Covid Mutations thread as well.
Because it's good and relevant IMO
Lots of links on that thread to various articles, plenty found by 2hats , and some containing vaccine-resistance information
Not something I often do, this, but I'm going to cross-post my above post ( #28,880 ) about Sharon Peacock's article onto the Covid Mutations thread as well.
Because it's good and relevant IMO
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Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yep. If things do go to plan I suspect it isn't going to be simply a weekly improvement as more people get vaccinated. Awful thing to say, but infection rates and deaths are going to get dramatically worse over the next month. I'd guess that even if they get to the point of rolling out a couple of million vaccines a week, infections will still be higher at the end of January. And when we start getting a significant number vaccinated, social distancing will just about disappear for the young and able bodied. Back to thinking about feelings though, I think I'll start felling better when it looks like we are 'winning', even if we are still under lockdown at that point.For me, it's more that even if everything goes completely to plan, it's going to take ages for people to be vaccinated so we've at least another what, three/four/more? months of this.
What does that actually mean though, stopping interactions?
No one leaves their home at all?
Or back to what we had in March?
I wish I had a convincing contradiction to your pessimism about vaccines in particular.
But weak and over-general though this is, it is a fact that 100 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine have been pre-ordered in the UK (to be manufactured in this country mainly, too
).Admittedly, it's being projected that 'just' 40 million of that will be available by March -- see next link..
That's still a fucking big number though, which if/when Oxford/AZ is approved by the MHRA, is surely a positive and encouraging thing ......
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weltweit
Well-Known Member
I think they permitted one person per household or block per couple of days out to buy food and medicines, everyone else remained at home. Some time into their lockdown they permitted some work places to reopen I believe. They had security staff on every residential block to ensure no one entered or left without written authorisation. I think public transport was stopped, essential workers like nurses and doctors were ferried to their hospitals by volunteers in private cars.
I remember a news story from a few weeks ago about previous mass inoculations. It's not an instant thing - can take a while to really take effect - up to a decade.
Covid-19: Will a vaccine give us our old lives back? - BBC News
Covid-19: Will a vaccine give us our old lives back? - BBC News
I read that BBC article (above) a little while ago, and I've just had another look.
There's some good stuff in it, but I'm failing to agree that new Covid vaccine(s) will take 'up to a decade' to 'really take effect'
I'd not argue in any way that all will be fine by Easter (2021
), but even despite the Tories' incompetence, the more vaccines get distributed and given, and in large numbers (see my previous post), the more there will be a radical effect.
IMO, etc., but I refuse to interpret all I read about he vaccine over-pessimistically, because I genuinely think there's a fair few grounds for positivity/optimism over the coming several months ......
There's some good stuff in it, but I'm failing to agree that new Covid vaccine(s) will take 'up to a decade' to 'really take effect'
I'd not argue in any way that all will be fine by Easter (2021
), but even despite the Tories' incompetence, the more vaccines get distributed and given, and in large numbers (see my previous post), the more there will be a radical effect.IMO, etc.
, but I refuse to interpret all I read about he vaccine over-pessimistically, because I genuinely think there's a fair few grounds for positivity/optimism over the coming several months ......
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AverageJoe
...
Pretty much this.
If. And thats a big IF, we manage to get to 1 million Covid injections a week, the population of the UK is about 56 million.
So, to give everyone their first vaccine jab at that level will take over a year.
We're e not out of this until mid 2022.
I called it a while ago that we'll have a civil war, and some scoffed and told me to calm down. But with the emotions for everyone being on a roller-coaster ("there's a vaccine - yay!, soz you're in Tier 4 - boo) and the increasing aggression between maskers and non maskers, plus the general lack of money people have and the associated increase in a lack fo tolerance.... Well we're just cooking up a perfect storm of hatred amongst ourselves for next year.
Im battening down the hatches. See you when this is over.
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