Raheem
Well-Known Member
But that logic only ever seems to apply in the Home Counties.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
It's been too long. Perhaps some latter day john felton can do unto him what the famous puritan did unto George Villiers, erstwhile duke of Buckingham in 1628
Hope not, I was planning on filling my freezer for the January lockdown
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
When did South Gloucestershire become part of the home counties?
Raheem
Well-Known Member
What part of South Gloucestershire is getting special treatment?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
The speed it's all moved is a worrying indicator that this variant is something they've very concerned about.
Pingety Pong
Well-Known Member
I just read the German coverage of this, and they said that the new strain is very similar to the Danish mink outbreak 
Weren't they really worried about the Danish strain a few weeks ago because it was so dangerous?
Weren't they really worried about the Danish strain a few weeks ago because it was so dangerous?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
It's a bit brexit like.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wouldnt put it quite like that. Data started to suck and cause alarm even before national measures ended. Data that followed in December caused a ramping up of alarm, and by Monday they were already starting to set the scene for what happened today.
It will probably be some time before I feel we have a good understanding of the new strain, so I'll probably have to keep an open mind about various details for quite some time. That wont stop me commenting on how this aspect has been used in regards the politics and public health messages and news management, because those aspects can be done quite cynically without casting any judgement on whether the underlying science regarding the new strain is valid or not.
Or to put it another way, its data such as number of positive cases, hospitalisations that really causes alarm and forces them to act. Part of the detail of this data was alarming trajectories seen in some areas, including before national measures ended. The stuff about a new strain offers an explanation for some or all of that data. But if we were not a nation that does genomic analysis much, and had not spotted this new strain at all at this stage, they would have had to speculate about other reasons and would still have been forced into tougher measures and Christmas u-turns.
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bimble
floofy
Have you got a link?I just read the German coverage of this, and they said that the new strain is very similar to the Danish mink outbreak
elbows
Well-Known Member
The mink strain concerns tend to involve stuff such as whether the virus is sufficiently different that it could more easily evade people immune responses, regardless of whether those responses are down to previous infection or vaccination.
When it comes to such concerns and this new UK strain, these are areas that will be high on the research list. In the meantime officialdom will tend to give us template answers where we need to pay attention to the language used - when they say there is currently no evidence for something, that is not the same as saying its untrue or that there is evidence that its untrue. Studies will be done and new evidence will come in, and judgements can then firm up over time.
When it comes to such concerns and this new UK strain, these are areas that will be high on the research list. In the meantime officialdom will tend to give us template answers where we need to pay attention to the language used - when they say there is currently no evidence for something, that is not the same as saying its untrue or that there is evidence that its untrue. Studies will be done and new evidence will come in, and judgements can then firm up over time.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
oh no, I hope she is better soonMt older sister has tested positive today. Fingers crossed for her. Could not handle losing both my brother & sister in less than a year.
editor
hiraethified
So I think my ex can get away tomorrow as Tier 4 comes into force on Monday
Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?
Plans for Christmas bubbles in the UK have been scaled back - so who can you see over the festive period?
www.bbc.co.uk
bimble
floofy
It’s sobering to read other countries’ coverage of the shit we are in.
This for instance,
www.bloomberg.com
I don’t know what “virtually unique to the uk’ might mean, of the new strain of virus.
Worst recession since the Great Frost of 1709 tho.
This for instance,
London Begins Emergency Lockdown as U.K. Fights New Virus Strain
www.bloomberg.com
Worst recession since the Great Frost of 1709 tho.
magneze
🎧
Tier 4 starts tomorrow. SorrySo I think my ex can get away tomorrow as Tier 4 comes into force on Monday
Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?
Plans for Christmas bubbles in the UK have been scaled back - so who can you see over the festive period?www.bbc.co.uk
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
So I think my ex can get away tomorrow as Tier 4 comes into force on Monday
Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?
Plans for Christmas bubbles in the UK have been scaled back - so who can you see over the festive period?www.bbc.co.uk
Sunday first thing that is, one minute past midnight Sunday morning.
0.01 GMT on Sunday is one minute after midnight tonight.So I think my ex can get away tomorrow as Tier 4 comes into force on Monday
Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?
Plans for Christmas bubbles in the UK have been scaled back - so who can you see over the festive period?www.bbc.co.uk
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
There's no 'parts' of SG, it's one council area. The special treatment, is it's the only council area in tier 3 in the region, the rest of Gloucestershire remains in tier 2, and both Bristol & North Somerset has dropped to tier 2.
It's part of the transition from county council area restrictions, to being more local unitary/borough/district council area restrictions if it seems more logical to them.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its not quite the language I would use. Partly because there is a very variable amount of genomic analysis conducted on samples in different countries. the UK does rather a lot, so has a stronger eye on such matters. But even we only test a small fraction of positive cases, so our picture is far from complete.
It is possible we are the only country with a large percentage of cases of this particular strain. But its also possible that this strain was imported from somewhere else, such as a country that didnt have the capabilities to detect it specifically.
I still expect the relevance and importance of this new strain in the grand scheme of things may not become clear to me for some time. Or we may find out much quicker than that. My expectations on this are fairly neutral at the moment. The implications could be huge, or not.
editor
hiraethified
Oh fuck. I'd always thought it the other way around.Tier 4 starts tomorrow. Sorry
Hang on - the BBC changed its text hence my confusion!
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I'm very happy I got my shopping done by post at the start of the month, chocolate for everyone, job done, good luck
In many ways this us actually the least stressful Christmas ever but I can't go out to enjoy my time off which is depressing.
not a trot
Well-Known Member
Still in tier 2, but a half hour walk with the dog I can enter 2 counties, surrey and berkshire, both in tier 3.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I also note that when presenting slides of how the percentages of this strain in their samples increased over time in the south, they didnt put any numbers on the levels being seen in the other regions, preferring instead to say vague things about it being present in those other regions too, but at much lower levels of incidence. Maybe they will wait till it reaches high levels in those other places before giving us the figures 
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