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I wonder about the timing though. National Tier review on the 16th, so earliest new Tiers would be in is the 17th, but then the Xmas infection bonus break is only 6 days later on the 23rd, so wonder if they'll hold off until after that's over? I expect they'll be huge pressure from the hospitality industry to leave that week in Tier 2...
I’d hope that they won’t be thinking too much about “saving” Christmas when reviewing the tiers and instead focus on the infection rates and what the experts advise. But I’m not that naive!
I wish they’d delayed laying out the plans for Christmas until nearer the time because they have put people’s hopes up about Christmas, some have already started/done food/gift shopping in preparation for 3 households getting together for how ever long.So this makes me think that the government won’t change their minds no matter the covid trend prior to Christmas ( incoherent rambling over)
 
What's the situation in English high schools with mandatory face masks?

I dont have the detail firmly in my brain but I'm pretty sure the same shitty attitudes towards masks in the classroom still exists in the minds of the English establishment.
 
I call pubs and restaurants being shut quite a notable difference. Buy yes, in various ways tier 3 is not enough either. But I'd much rather be in a tier 3 area, which I currently am (Warwickshire) than a tier 2 area.
And at least pubs and restaurants forced to close will have to be helped. Right now it's "Oh, you can serve booze but only with a substantial meal" which most pub goers can't afford to do; or in other words "You can stay open but too bad if it ain't a viable business model!"
 
What's the situation in English high schools with mandatory face masks?
Compulsory outside of classrooms but not inside them where I work. About as well enforced as tie wearing (in that 99% of kids will have them on but a sizeable minority are wearing them wrong in some way).
 
What's the situation in English high schools with mandatory face masks?

Where we are masks are mandatory indoors in corridors etc, optional in classrooms. Staff have to wear masks in corridors and other shared spaces and when close to students in classrooms, but not while teaching at the front of the class. Much of this is adhered to and enforced indifferently.
 
I dont have the detail firmly in my brain but I'm pretty sure the same shitty attitudes towards masks in the classroom still exists in the minds of the English establishment.
it's sentimentality that's the barrier as far as I can tell. We can't allow our darlings to be isolated from each other like this!
 
Why do they tie shit like reviews to set dates? I mean obviously it does make sense to say 'we're going to have a review on x date regardless', but if the situation changes, shift the damn thing. I do also realise that it makes sense to time things according to when you have a full picture of the data, maybe that's partly the case here... But it's something that has been there to an extent throughout. Like starting measures after a last weekend down the pub. Clunky centralised responses. There is emergency legislation you can use. It's a fucking virus, it's not working to a timetable.
 
I’d hope that they won’t be thinking too much about “saving” Christmas when reviewing the tiers and instead focus on the infection rates and what the experts advise. But I’m not that naive!
I wish they’d delayed laying out the plans for Christmas until nearer the time because they have put people’s hopes up about Christmas, some have already started/done food/gift shopping in preparation for 3 households getting together for how ever long.So this makes me think that the government won’t change their minds no matter the covid trend prior to Christmas ( incoherent rambling over)

The most they would have considered doing before 2020 ended was via the tier system, and almost all of the tier rules do not change over the Christmas relaxation period.

The Christmas relaxations involve travel and families meeting in private. They dont affect whether pubs or restaurants are open and whether multiple households are allowed to meet in such settings.

So if everyone is making plans based on what they are really allowed to do under the announced Christmas rules, those plans should not be affected by any tier allocation changes made before Christmas.

So its all the other usual pressures that I would blame for any crap tier decisions, rather than pressure because there is a Christmas relaxation incompatibility with certain tiers rules. The way they've set things up means they cannot be incompatible, the Christmas rules work in all tiers and indeed across the four nations.
 
So if everyone is making plans based on what they are really allowed to do under the announced Christmas rules, those plans should not be affected by any tier allocation changes made before Christmas.

So its all the other usual pressures that I would blame for any crap tier decisions, rather than pressure because there is a Christmas relaxation incompatibility with certain tiers rules. The way they've set things up means they cannot be incompatible, the Christmas rules work in all tiers and indeed across the four nations.

Erm...you sure?

I live in Wales. My grandchildren live on the edge of London. They are currently Tier 2. If they move to Tier 3 before Christmas I can't see them as we're banned from travelling to tier 3 areas.
 
Why do they tie shit like reviews to set dates? I mean obviously it does make sense to say 'we're going to have a review on x date regardless', but if the situation changes, shift the damn thing. I do also realise that it makes sense to time things according to when you have a full picture of the data, maybe that's partly the case here... But it's something that has been there to an extent throughout. Like starting measures after a last weekend down the pub. Clunky centralised responses. There is emergency legislation you can use. It's a fucking virus, it's not working to a timetable.

In general when trying to make judgements based on data its always tempting to want an extra weeks data, but that temptation never really stops. Sometimes there is a logic to waiting a particular period of time, eg to allow enough time to see the result of some previous measures or relaxations. For example part of the current alarm is that recent data doesnt even reflect too much of the post-national-measures period yet, we are seeing bad signs from data for London etc because things seemed to have taken a bad turn there before the national measures even ended. And it was also possible to judge that putting London in tier 2 looked like a bad idea when they made that decision, never mind waiting till the next review for confirmation.

The other reason they like to put timetables on things is to provide some business certainty for planning purposes. Even when its bad news for the business in question, at least they end up with a sense of when things could next change. This is useful although it sometimes leads to people feeling like they are just being strung along. When Leicester was placed under stricter measures the likes of Johnson tried to make noises about how they hoped things would only last a matter of days and would be frequently reviewed, but as of the previous tier decisions made in late November, Leicester had been under restrictions for 150 days.
 
Erm...you sure?

I live in Wales. My grandchildren live on the edge of London. They are currently Tier 2. If they move to Tier 3 before Christmas I can't see them as we're banned from travelling to tier 3 areas.

Are Tier 3 people allowed to visit Tier 2 people at Christmas?

Yes and I'm sure and they crafted the whole thing this way deliberately, to offer certainty in very specific and limited ways that wont be spoilt by tier decisions. Only an emergency of great intensity and immediacy that quickly forced new national measures could scupper this stuff.

Wales version of the guidance:


Travel to/from bubble bits, my bold:

Between 23 and 27 December:

  • you can form an exclusive ‘Christmas bubble’ composed of no more than three households
  • you can only be in one Christmas bubble
  • you cannot change your Christmas bubble
  • you can travel anywhere within the UK for the purposes of meeting your Christmas bubble

If you are travelling away from home, you should meet your Christmas bubble and return home within the designated window (23-27 December). Anyone travelling to or from Northern Ireland may also travel on the 22 and 28 December, but cannot meet up with the bubble outside the 23-27 December window.

Between 23 and 27 December, you may travel anywhere within the UK if necessary to meet with other households in your Christmas bubble or return home. Once at your destination, you should follow the rules in place there.

You should not travel to see your bubble before 23 December, or travel back after 27 December except in exceptional circumstances (for example, if you develop coronavirus symptoms while you are staying with your Christmas bubble far from home and are required to self-isolate, in which case you should continue to stay where you are if you can do so safely until you have reached the end of the self-isolation period).

Anyone travelling to or from Northern Ireland may travel on 22 and 28 December, and may stay in hotels in Wales on the nights of 22 and 27 December.

Transport routes may be busier than normal. Plan your journey and check for disruption before you leave to help keep everyone safe when travelling for Christmas. You should avoid making unnecessary stops during your journey. Where possible, avoid public transport and avoid sharing a car with people not in your household.

If you plan to travel to England, Scotland or Northern Ireland, you should read guidance from England, Scotland or Northern Ireland before you travel.

If you need to travel with your Christmas bubble, wherever you are, you should follow travelling safely guidance. You should:

  • plan, and avoid the busiest routes, as well as busy times
  • keep your distance when you travel, where possible.
  • wash or sanitise your hands regularly
  • wear a face covering on public transport in Wales unless you are exempt
Different rules may apply in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

And a travel bit from the England guidelines to help confirm what I'm on about:


Between 23 and 27 December, you may travel between tiers and other nations of the UK if necessary to meet with other households in your Christmas bubble or return home. Once at your destination, you should follow the rules in that tier.

You should not travel to see your bubble before 23 December, or travel back after the 27 December except in exceptional circumstances (for example, if a member of your Christmas bubble develops symptoms of COVID-19 and you are required to self-isolate). Anyone travelling to or from Northern Ireland may travel on the 22 and 28 December.

And Scotland:


You can travel anywhere in Scotland and the rest of the UK to meet people in your bubble – but you should follow local travel rules once you arrive
 
Yes and I'm sure and they crafted the whole thing this way deliberately, to offer certainty in very specific and limited ways that wont be spoilt by tier decisions. Only an emergency of great intensity and immediacy that quickly forced new national measures could scupper this stuff.

Wales version of the guidance:


Travel to/from bubble bits, my bold:







And a travel bit from the England guidelines to help confirm what I'm on about:




And Scotland:


Cheers. I never knew that.
 
I think I can forego seeing my S-i-L and her extended household in person this "festive season" . I would much rather wait for a few weeks (month or three) until we've all had our jabs. There are two small kids (one with serious health issues, and the other is a real hugger) and of the adults, three have serious health issues of their own. I've managed without visits for more than nine months ...

OH could rig up something like zoom ... if we really needed the contact.
 
When I think of the extent to which the country might 'get away with' the Christmas relaxations, or the extent to which they make things much worse, there are two big factors in my mind. The number of people infected at the time the relaxation begins, and the number of people who decide not to have all the family meetups that the Christmas rules allow. And the governments full Christmas guidance does include bits where they try to discourage people from physically meeting.

So as with various other things in this pandemic, I do allow myself to be slightly reassured when I hear people talking about how they are not going to push their behaviour and contact micing patterns right up to the maximum limits of what the rules allow. When people are sensible and go further with precautions than they have to, they are helping to compensate for all the people who wont or cant behave in a perfect pandemic-suppressing manner at all times.
 
the number of people who decide not to have all the family meetups that the Christmas rules allow.
My mum and dad, who have had a fairly lax approach throughout, told me they aren't having anyone. Quite surprised tbh.

I've no idea how common this is likely to be, but they're the bellwether for the average boomer for me, so it might be more widespread then expected...
 
My mum and dad, who have had a fairly lax approach throughout, told me they aren't having anyone. Quite surprised tbh.

I've no idea how common this is likely to be, but they're the bellwether for the average boomer for me, so it might be more widespread then expected...
My sister's parents-in-law were exactly the same. Said they wouldn't be having anyone in their house till they'd been vaccinated. She was very surprised as they've been pretty relaxed about it up till now too. (My sister's quite pleased as the logistics were going to be very difficult.)
 
When I think of the extent to which the country might 'get away with' the Christmas relaxations, or the extent to which they make things much worse, there are two big factors in my mind. The number of people infected at the time the relaxation begins, and the number of people who decide not to have all the family meetups that the Christmas rules allow. And the governments full Christmas guidance does include bits where they try to discourage people from physically meeting.

So as with various other things in this pandemic, I do allow myself to be slightly reassured when I hear people talking about how they are not going to push their behaviour and contact micing patterns right up to the maximum limits of what the rules allow. When people are sensible and go further with precautions than they have to, they are helping to compensate for all the people who wont or cant behave in a perfect pandemic-suppressing manner at all times.

I should think this pattern would be part of the modelling?
 
My sister's parents-in-law were exactly the same. Said they wouldn't be having anyone in their house till they'd been vaccinated. She was very surprised as they've been pretty relaxed about it up till now too. (My sister's quite pleased as the logistics were going to be very difficult.)
That is interesting - I guess now things aren't so open ended, it's gone from 'what purpose is there to life if I can't see my beautiful grandchildren' to 'actually we're getting vaccinated in a month or so, probably best not risk dying in the meantime'
 
My mum and dad, who have had a fairly lax approach throughout, told me they aren't having anyone. Quite surprised tbh.

I've no idea how common this is likely to be, but they're the bellwether for the average boomer for me, so it might be more widespread then expected...
I reckon and hope it could be quite common. Speaking to a couple of friends today, both usually host quite big and lovely family get togethers. But both battening down the hatches and keeping things simple. Much more simple than technically allowed. That seems good to me, we've nearly done a year of this crap, why blow it now.
 
I reckon and hope it could be quite common. Speaking to a couple of friends today, both usually host quite big and lovely family get togethers. But both battening down the hatches and keeping things simple. Much more simple than technically allowed. That seems good to me, we've nearly done a year of this crap, why blow it now.
Yeah, we've thought about the various options available to us and all of them involve more risk than we're prepared to take, so me and Mrs B are most likely just having christmas with the two of us. It was a fairly simple decision once we'd actually sat down and looked at it.
 
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