littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Everywhere stayed relatively clear for most of the summer.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Well relative to now, certainly.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
littlebabyjesus & elbows
I'm comparing to the area's cases (&case rate) being in low enough numbers to be in the "data suppressed" or "less than 3 cases" category.
I'm comparing to the area's cases (&case rate) being in low enough numbers to be in the "data suppressed" or "less than 3 cases" category.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It does drive me a little crazy when people describe their local rates as quite good at the moment, when similar rates would have been seen as bad anywhere they happened in summer.
I dont think Leicester qualified for the 'everywhere' mentioned earlier.
Putting London in tier 2 wasn't the only mistake they made with setting the level of restrictions, but it was the most obvious one, and so stories like the following one are entirely unsurprising to me.
Coronavirus: Londoners 'must stick to rules' amid tier 3 fears
Rising Covid-19 cases, especially in outer boroughs, could see tighter restrictions imposed.www.bbc.co.uk
It always looked like the economics won out over the health with that decision. A bit worrying that that was in the week running up to the end of lockdown 2. Rather suggests a notable degree of non-compliance with the rules.
My borough is currently at 83 cases per 100,000 so still comparatively low but far from ideal but its double or more that in the neighbouring boroughs.
It always seemed certain that London would go into tier 3 on Jan 1st or near as possible. Will they shut down it all down before Christmas? Hmmmm.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Moving over 50 per 100,000 was initially the benchmark for taking action in the summer. A couple of weeks ago, Liverpool marked the point it dropped below 100 as hugely significant, so perspectives are certainly changed on that score.
Drill down so far that you're watching individual infection events unfold and you can see your local rate quadruple within a week and start to be alarmed. But these kinds of mini-explosions are taking place all over the place. It's the nature of the infection that it's extremely uneven at that level of focus.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah despite all the times I went on about zooming in, I dont usually go further than the NHS trust level of zoom. For example I've never found the very local data (eg MSOA maps where cases are suppressed below a certain level) to be very compelling for my purposes. My opinion might be different if such data could actually capture close to every case and outbreak, but that sort of data often ends up telling me as much about access to testing and local health team cluster detection and institutional outbreaks as anything else, and I dont use the evolving figures for the MSOA where I live as a guide to my own personal pandemic risk. And the numbers in small areas are often very small, which can make trends harder to spot in amongst the natural random noise.
Last Thursday when the weekly NHS trust data came out, there were a number of trusts around the country where, in contrast to many others, I wasn't really happy with what the admissions data showed. Some were in areas that are now tier 3, some are in tier 2 areas so bother me especially. But that data only went up to November 29th so I decided to give it till another weeks worth of data is available this coming Thursday before pointing out some examples.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
At some point, we'll be working to control these individual outbursts of infections - which is when T&T would actually work.
But not knowing where these infections are coming from in my local area makes it very difficult to avoid them (ie deciding on shopping trips, getting fuel for the car ...)
Most of the early autumn we deliberately avoided the local conurbation when purchasing supplies.
elbows
Well-Known Member
My preferred personal local risk approach is not to focus on the idea of actually finding out how many infected people there are in a particular place, just assume it is everywhere and instead concentrate on the risk from specific behaviours and settings. Distance, crowding, ventilation etc. I would factor in a general sense of how prevalent the virus was in the region and country too, but not really a local sense of the present situation, because I just dont believe the local info will be complete and timely enough to be safe from the risk of being misleading.
People who placed too much hope in how much pandemic burden test & trace could carry in this country, and how much we would learn about outbreaks and spread in specific settings, have been left disappointed so far. I'd suggest that only a portion of this failure to live up to expectations is down to Johnson & Co incompetence, profiteering, centralised approach, funding etc. Dont get me wrong, lots could be done better in those areas, it was reasonable to demand more. But even if they had made a more thorough attempt, I still think such things are only likely to pick up a proportion of the picture, and there is much unease about how far to pry when it comes to tracing outbreaks and trying to join every potentially available dot. And the establishment in this country have never shown any genuine signs of trying to play a complete viral suppression game. So we never get close to the sort of test & trace efforts that we've famously seen in countries that have only ever had limited outbreaks and so are playing a very different game, of trying to keep the virus out of their country completely and totally squash local transmission ASAP when outbreaks begin. I dont see the UK establishment changing on that front because there is the whole 'we are an open country with so many international links' angle, and indeed the whole suppression subject overlaps with border infection control policies stuff, where again its the same story as far as UK plc is concerned, a slack story of 'its way too much effort and conflicts with our other priorities so lets just not consider it viable and move on'.
Having said that there are still real outbreak detection efforts that have been part of the picture in England for a long time. There are lots of outbreaks in specific settings detected and reported and to some extent managed, especially since local teams got better access to some data than they had in the early months of the testing regime. But again these clusters they detect are sort of low-hanging fruit, they dont represent anything like enough of the picture to help with my own personal sense of risk when interacting with other people. They are often tales of outbreaks that happen in an institution that is large enough that these things are large enough to be noticed, and where formal processes for the institution reporting the outbreak are in place. And a lot of the time these sorts of outbreaks are not actually the source of growing levels of infection elsewhere in the community, rather they are just a big warning sign that levels of infection in the wider community are growing. In other words the tip of the iceberg is noteworthy for being visible, rather than being the cause of the rest of the iceberg that lurks beyond view.
What I just described also has similarities with how new pandemics tend to be discovered in the first place, if you dont have a huge, well tuned and ever-present surveillance effort that leaves no stone unturned. The outbreaks are detected only once they reach a size large enough to cause an unusual strain on hospitals, and then some enquiring minds are still required to notice and respond appropriately rather than resting on prior assumptions such as blaming it on another known disease
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
He also looks like he’s been dead for 400 years
Seems inevitable really. I would have expected that to happen anyway to a degree but given the season and shopping and everything.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The only way is up now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
If my job was to report the news, very much including pandemic news and tier restrictions news, then I wouldn't fancy the chances of keeping my job after breaching the regulations. It was only December 1st when I went on about the intelligentsia having dinner party and restaurant weaknesses when I was moaning about the London tier 2 decision. Apart from still not being happy that I only managed to come up with the word intelligentsia rather than some broader term that I was searching for but my mind failed to deliver, it didnt take long for an example of this point to wander into view. I was going to mention it when the first details of the story broke but didnt get round to it, but I see it has expanded in scope since then.
I dont make a habit of watching Sky News but anyone who has forced themselves to watch many of the press conferences in full has probably seen that Beth Rigbys questions were often far from the worst of the bunch. Its hard for me to currently imagine her being able to ask such questions in future, it would be too awkward surely. Like Angus Deayton trying to carry on presenting Have I got News For You after becoming part of the news himself.
I dont make a habit of watching Sky News but anyone who has forced themselves to watch many of the press conferences in full has probably seen that Beth Rigbys questions were often far from the worst of the bunch. Its hard for me to currently imagine her being able to ask such questions in future, it would be too awkward surely. Like Angus Deayton trying to carry on presenting Have I got News For You after becoming part of the news himself.
Kay Burley: Sky News presenter off air during Covid breach inquiry
The TV journalist and Sky News political editor Beth Rigby are among four people taken off air.
www.bbc.co.uk
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It would be a big Christmas bonus if they sacked Kay Burley.
I can see that lot having loads of dinner parties but I'm surprised they can still rent out clubs etc. It was the same with that party Rita Ora had, just rented a club out no questions asked.
I increasingly feel like we're the mugs here for following the rules.
ETA: I do wonder how much influence it had on tier allocation the fact that so many of the wealthy and influential live in London.
I increasingly feel like we're the mugs here for following the rules.
ETA: I do wonder how much influence it had on tier allocation the fact that so many of the wealthy and influential live in London.
Last edited:
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I sort of broke one of the rules yesterday. Saw my mate who lives on his own in Marlow, has family in London, only been seeing them outside etc and has been on a train twice since March, both times to see me lol. I went to an Indian restaurant with him as my 'support bubble'. He's the first one of my mates I've seen since about the end of October and the only one I've seen indoors since like august.
It's breaking the rules because my dad is supposed to be in the support bubble and my mum's been shopping with him a week ago, he never comes in the house tho and ive not seen him in about two months. I won't be seeing anyone else this side of Christmas tho.
It's breaking the rules because my dad is supposed to be in the support bubble and my mum's been shopping with him a week ago, he never comes in the house tho and ive not seen him in about two months. I won't be seeing anyone else this side of Christmas tho.
Last edited:
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
These venues are supposed to be slapped with £10k fines.
I do find the situation with flying and holidays quite odd at the moment.
The Government advice is that all foreign travel should be avoided unless essential. Also Tier 3 restrictions basically say you shouldn't leave your local area unless under very certain circumstances.
Yet, I keep getting bombarded by emails from the airlines promoting their Christmas and winter holidays. The one from Wizz this morning tells me I cam turn this Christmas into the highlight of 2020 by jetting off to Spain from Doncaster (tier 3).
Its quite clear to me that loads of people are off on holiday as per usual. That fuckwit Kay Burley followed up her hedged none apology with a (now deleted) fuck you mugs I'm off on safari tweet.
Its likely that from next week I won't be able to sit in the corner of an empty cafe but its still OK to carry on with my foreign travel as normal.
The Government advice is that all foreign travel should be avoided unless essential. Also Tier 3 restrictions basically say you shouldn't leave your local area unless under very certain circumstances.
Yet, I keep getting bombarded by emails from the airlines promoting their Christmas and winter holidays. The one from Wizz this morning tells me I cam turn this Christmas into the highlight of 2020 by jetting off to Spain from Doncaster (tier 3).
Its quite clear to me that loads of people are off on holiday as per usual. That fuckwit Kay Burley followed up her hedged none apology with a (now deleted) fuck you mugs I'm off on safari tweet.
Its likely that from next week I won't be able to sit in the corner of an empty cafe but its still OK to carry on with my foreign travel as normal.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
When I flew back for my operation in November both Faro and Manchester airports were like a ghost town . Only one terminal in use at Manchester , three shops open and possibly 50 people plus staff in the entire terminal . 15 people on the flight to England , ten on the way back .I do find the situation with flying and holidays quite odd at the moment.
The Government advice is that all foreign travel should be avoided unless essential. Also Tier 3 restrictions basically say you shouldn't leave your local area unless under very certain circumstances.
Yet, I keep getting bombarded by emails from the airlines promoting their Christmas and winter holidays. The one from Wizz this morning tells me I cam turn this Christmas into the highlight of 2020 by jetting off to Spain from Doncaster (tier 3).
Its quite clear to me that loads of people are off on holiday as per usual. That fuckwit Kay Burley followed up her hedged none apology with a (now deleted) fuck you mugs I'm off on safari tweet.
Its likely that from next week I won't be able to sit in the corner of an empty cafe but its still OK to carry on with my foreign travel as normal.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Sounds like a paradise tbh.
Fuck me I might start respecting her at this rate. The messaging for airports and travel has been fucking shameful.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Discussion with mate, a couple of weeks ago. His bratts want to see their nan (*who is in pretty good health for 87).
I told him, not until after the jabs ...
If you go hug Nan now, you risk killing her. (especially as their school has had several of the bubbles isolating recently)
Much better to wait and be able to have several more years of hugging Nan.
I told him, not until after the jabs ...
If you go hug Nan now, you risk killing her. (especially as their school has had several of the bubbles isolating recently)
Much better to wait and be able to have several more years of hugging Nan.
Looks like someone in the EU in reading my posts and taking note:
www.theguardian.com
Holidaymakers from Great Britain barred from EU after 1 January under Covid rules
European commission indicates Britons will face ban on non-essential travel at end of Brexit transition
She was doing this in the summer as well. I don't know how much impact it has had.
Similar threads
