Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[teuchter]

View attachment 242210

First look at new NHS Covid-19 vaccination identity card

Human Rights advocacy group Liberty fear those without the Covid-19 vaccination ID card could be blocked from accessing from 'essential public services, work or housing' in Britain.

www.dailymail.co.uk

i see they aren't including wales in the first tranche of vaccinations

I see you're kind enough to link us to the Daily Mail for this information.

 

[Pickman's model]

I see you're kind enough to link us to the Daily Mail for this information.

you are a master at pointing out the bleeding obvious. however do you manage to do it?

 

[Pickman's model]

That's okay. According to that map they appear to be moving Wirral Hospital over the Dee into Wales. They also seem to be moving Epsom Racecourse to Tonbridge Wells and the Excel Centre to Canvey Island. I know Johnson loves big projects, but this is really ambitious...

sadly that's only because mail hacks aren't that proficient with computers

 

[StoneRoad]

sadly that's only because mail hacks aren't that proficient with computers

Nor are they especially good with locating places on maps

 

[cupid_stunt]

Nor are they especially good with locating places on maps

Let's be honest, they are just fucking hopeless all round.

 

[planetgeli]

Mate is keeping his own graphs (like elbows ) - sent me this today showing actual daily reported cases and 7 day rolling average now above firebreak levels.

(Wales, obviously)

There are apparently rumours the Senedd may close down schools a week early this Friday.

 

[frogwoman]

Is any of that down to higher testing?

 

[planetgeli]

Is any of that down to higher testing?

I don't think so. At least I'm not aware of any greatly increased testing since the firebreak.

 

[elbows]

There does seem to have been an increase in testing according to the official Wales dashboard, but that may be primarily down to an increase in demand and I would certainly not let it distract from the fact that Wales has problems again that the authorities know they will have to act on.


from Tableau Public

I'd suggest thats whats happening in most places is a reasonable fit for opinions of how much various measures would achieve, when those opinions were fairly balanced between pessimism and optimism.

Wales firebreak stopped the rise and somewhat stabilised the situation for a time, but it was a short firebreak so the amount of time bought as a result was relatively modest. It is entirely unsurprising that they have been forced into further measures again recently and may yet have to go further still. Northern Ireland was a similar story, they used measures to stop a bad situation getting too much worse, but didnt buy themselves enough wiggle room to relax for a prolonged period. I'm a bit out of date with regards Scotland but much like England I'm not overjoyed by the data, some real achievements show up but I'm not sure as they are enough for me not to have to sound the alarm again till 2021, the situation in December is fragile and could yet deteriorate quickly.

Some combination of earlier, stronger and longer would have been better in all these places, with a more cautious and prolonged set of relaxations afterwards. Overall most actions resemble the bare minimum to me, which usually means that at some point they will have to do more.

 

[elbows]

For example the following represents the latest data I have for number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in English regions. And for example there is no situation in which I can imagine being happy for pubs and restaurants to reopen in regions where the number of people in hospital has not fallen but has only plateaued for a time before rising further.

I expect data on this front over the next 5-10 days to further develop my sense of where I think things are going, how well previous measures worked, how ill-advised the current restrictions/lack of restrictions are in various places etc.


Using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[elbows]

Another danger for Wales is if they try to hang on till after Christmas before having to go further with measures. I mean they've already panicked and stopped pubs serving alcohol, and would now like to do the standard 'we need to wait 2 weeks to see the results of this' but I'm not sure they will end up with the luxury of not going further with measures in the meantime.

Wales considers new Covid lockdown amid rapid rise in infections

Welsh health minister refuses to rule out more restrictions as hospital cases hit new high

www.theguardian.com

 

[belboid]

My welsh hospitality working mates are basically saying its all gonna be fucked and shut until March, they are largely accepting of it.

 

[William of Walworth]

View attachment 242210

First look at new NHS Covid-19 vaccination identity card

Human Rights advocacy group Liberty fear those without the Covid-19 vaccination ID card could be blocked from accessing from 'essential public services, work or housing' in Britain.

www.dailymail.co.uk

i see they aren't including wales in the first tranche of vaccinations

I'd be surprised if that's actually the case about Wales.
There's nothing more up-to-date (yet) thatn 2nd December on the gov.Wales site but there was this

Also, this statement on the Public Health Wales site from Vaughm Gething (Wales Health minister)

Mail Map Misleading shocker.

ETA : More up-to-date BBC Wales story .....

And (also BBC Wales) a less than opitimistic timescale for Wales is predicted here

 

[William of Walworth]

That's okay. According to that map they appear to be moving Wirral Hospital over the Dee into Wales. They also seem to be moving Epsom Racecourse to Tonbridge Wells and the Excel Centre to Canvey Island. I know Johnson loves big projects, but this is really ambitious...

Mail in Crap Map as Well shocker

 

[planetgeli]

I think the thing about that Mail map was that it was a list of NHS sites. And Wales has a completely separate NHS to England.

 

[William of Walworth]

My welsh hospitality working mates are basically saying its all gonna be fucked and shut until March, they are largely accepting of it.

That not until March thing sounds like a definite risk for sure , but I've heard mixed views round here myself, so 'not a certainty' would be my speculation.

 

[elbows]

Lots of Scottish data explored in this article.

Covid in Scotland: Have the level four restrictions worked?

As people in Scotland wait to hear what Covid alert level their area will be put in to, we analyse the statistics and ask whether the toughest measures have been working.

www.bbc.co.uk

In regards my concerns expressed yesterday which included Scotland, its not that I am totally unhappy with progress made, but that I have concerns about relaxing measures when levels are still relatively high.

 

[steveo87]

SHOW EMOTION! MAKE IT LOOK LIKE WE CARE, THE PLEBS WILL *DEFINITELY * VOTE FOR US THEN:
(was also going to go with 'look at this Thunder Cunt', but as Pierce Morgan is there too, the point may have been missed)

 

[LeytonCatLady]

SHOW EMOTION! MAKE IT LOOK LIKE WE CARE, THE PLEBS WILL *DEFINITELY * VOTE FOR US THEN:
(was also going to go with 'look at this Thunder Cunt', but as Pierce Morgan is there too, the point may have been missed)

And modern William Shakespeare is also from Warwickshire, apparently.

 

[StoneRoad]

Still trying to work out the cause of our local "spike" in cases (OK, it is "only" 30 in the past week, compared to single figures or zero/less than three suppression level until a few cases in mid-October, this good run was from April)

Doubt it is the local plastic bottle making plant - people from all over work there, and the case rates in neighbouring areas are going down .
We do have some "hospital / elderly care" facilities ...
alternatively, the local schools have not been totally clear of cases, either.

Some discussions today suggest that the bottle plant may well be the current culprit, even if the original source was the local secondary school - we're getting an army unit doing testing tomorrow (they've requisitioned the far side of the yard outside the workshop (again).

The lack of current / uptodate information really makes a mockery of trying to plan work-based activities ...

 

[tommers]

SHOW EMOTION! MAKE IT LOOK LIKE WE CARE, THE PLEBS WILL *DEFINITELY * VOTE FOR US THEN:
(was also going to go with 'look at this Thunder Cunt', but as Pierce Morgan is there too, the point may have been missed)

I didn't clock that he had said "it makes you so proud to be British" as he was welling up.

That. Is. Outstanding.

What an absolute pillock.

 

[steveo87]

Its like one of your man of twitter's (Micheal Spider, I think his name is) skits, just real. Horribly real....

 

[StoneRoad]

And, cases are up today ...

(not surprised)

 

[cupid_stunt]

And, cases are up today ...

(not surprised)

The government dashboard is reporting 12,282 new cases, that's lower than last Tuesday - 13.430, and everyday in-between.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Cases have levelled out around 14k a day for the last week or so, down from many weeks over 20k. That hides a few details - cases have fallen massively (from a very high high) in the NW, NE of England. Cases in London, SE are more level, but never reached the highs of the NW, NE.

Similar stories with hospitalisations and deaths.

So it's good news generally, but more mixed when you drill down into it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Some discussions today suggest that the bottle plant may well be the current culprit, even if the original source was the local secondary school - we're getting an army unit doing testing tomorrow (they've requisitioned the far side of the yard outside the workshop (again).

The lack of current / uptodate information really makes a mockery of trying to plan work-based activities ...

tbh when you drill right down to local level, it's easy to be alarmed. Everywhere goes up and down at the very local level because, as you suggest, single infection events can cause an apparent surge. I'm not sure it is a good thing to fixate on it too much.

 

[StoneRoad]

I was looking at this ...



the red on the uplift at the tail ...

 

[StoneRoad]

tbh when you drill right down to local level, it's easy to be alarmed. Everywhere goes up and down at the very local level because, as you suggest, single infection events can cause an apparent surge. I'm not sure it is a good thing to fixate on it too much.

When the local area had managed to stay relatively clear for most of the summer, to now be getting a high peak (now over 45 cases in last seven days to 2nd December and a case rate of over 640 per 100k) does become worrying ...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This shows cases by specimen date. It's flattened out certainly, but as I said, that hides some more local trends.

 

[elbows]

Putting London in tier 2 wasn't the only mistake they made with setting the level of restrictions, but it was the most obvious one, and so stories like the following one are entirely unsurprising to me.

Londoners have been urged to "stick by the rules" amid fears the capital may be put into tier three restrictions following a rise in Covid-19 cases.

Two-thirds of the capital's boroughs registered an increase in coronavirus cases in the week to 3 December.

Outer London now has a higher infection rate than some areas in tier three, according to Public Health England (PHE) figures.

Officials are due to meet on 16 December to review the tier system.

Coronavirus: Londoners 'must stick to rules' amid tier 3 fears

Rising Covid-19 cases, especially in outer boroughs, could see tighter restrictions imposed.

www.bbc.co.uk