Raheem
Well-Known Member
Could alternatively be that we needed much tighter restrictions before.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
MrSki
Who am I to say you're wrong
Reviewed 16/12/20 so could change for a week before the Christmas 5 day plan comes in on 23rd. It says they are reviewed every two weeks but Hancock said in the HoCs this morning that it will be weekly after that so don't know who to believe.So they review in the middle of December then the Christmas stuff kicks in then they review after the end of the Christmas thing or just go back to whatever it was from mid December..?
andysays
Love and solidarity
I agree that we needed tighter restrictions before "lockdown 2", but I also think "lockdown 2" itself wasn't as tight as it should have been, and that it's too soon to relax it.
Fuck's sake. I'm trying to keep track off what's going on in different bits of Scotland too. Think I'm failing at all of it tbh.
tea at three is basically the same as lockdown two, except you can go to Primark as well.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And purely from a data point of view, I dont think now is the best moment to have to make these tier decisions or for national restrictions to be lifted on December 2nd. There is some positive data they can find now, but only just. If I had the misfortune of having to publicly sell the results of the current measures and the plan for the next phase to people, I would have wanted at least another week before having to do so, and hopefully I would have more graphs pointing downwards by then than I have right now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
If we strip away all the chosen rhetoric, regional, national aspects and various government and media framing of the various measures of recent months and for the rest of winter, we could have told a simple story of having to shut pubs and restaurants to keep schools open and compensate for winter. And how we were late with restrictions so had to go further by shutting various shops too, but now those can reopen.
To the untrained eye it looks to me that this second lockdown has had a mixed effect at best. Some good news in the North but infections have increased throughout the last month in pretty much all of the South. I suppose the best thing you could say is that it has slowed the problem and brought a little time which is the strategy I guess.
Supine
Newt Member
From what I understand that is far from certain.
elbows
Well-Known Member
People weren't very happy with what success looked like with the first lockdown either. Which was understandable but also a shame because it contributes to fatigue if people can't see what was achieved. But probably the only way to show people what had been achieved would be to show them a parallel universe where the lockdowns didnt happen.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And we are about 1 or 2 weeks away from me forming a more complete opinion of quite what this period of extra national restrictions achieved. My primary means of judgement is daily covid-19 hospital admissions per region. And I simply require more time to see what happens next with those. The most recent picture I have is using data for admissions rates up to November 24th, smoothed using 7 day rolling averages. And I wait to see how the continued falls in the North and Midlands evolve, and what happens in the other regions that are either plateauing or increasing more slowly at the moment.
Using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
Using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
2hats
Dust.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The evidence can be found, if looked for.
Avoid magical thinking.
Children may transmit coronavirus at the same rate as adults: what we now know about schools and COVID-19
The risk associated with schools is tied to the level of community transmission. The more community transmission there is, the more transmission there will be in schools.
theconversation.com
Dr. Furface
One small step for me
I just bumped into Martin Fry in Camden. I asked him what he thought of the new restrictions. He said ‘Tiers are not enough’
To me the chart seems to be pretty conclusive - most of the north-west was in old tier 3 by early to mid october: 2-3 weeks after that, the hospitalisation figures plateaued and dropped. Yorkshire and the rest of the North East and parts of the midlands entered old tier 3 towards the end of the month, 2-3 weeks after that, and bingo - hospitalisations start dropping. So it's not that lockdown isn't working in the other regions - it's just that it's only just starting to show in the figures. Another week or so's data would be good before making any big changes I'd agree, but these guys are nothing if not risk-takers.
It's reasonable to assume from the last month's interventions and data that the current level of lockdown works, and that the old tier 3 works in reducing infections. Which means the new tier 3 certainly will, and the new tier 2 might well do, if not as well, I reckon.
miss direct
misfungled
This should help clear it up:
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
I don't think that comment follows from those maps.
The tier levels before lockdown 2 were a joke. Far too many places were in tier 1 and far too few in tier 3. This was largely because the government didn't want to pay for the support needed to put places into tier 3, as seen by the arguments in Manchester. They were too focused on keeping local/regional areas happy and not on what needed to be done. They only bought in the tier system to avoid having a 'circuit breaker lockdown' and the whole thing was such a disaster that in 3 weeks there had to be a national lockdown. Just because there's wider restrictions now doesn't mean lockdown 2 has been a failure. We need to wait a bit longer to make that judgment, but there's plenty of positive signs about.
Some credit where it's due: if we're going to have a tier system, I'm pleased to see around 97% of the population in tier 2 & 3, otherwise they'd just be repeating the same mistake as before. And all the right people are whinging loudly about the new tier levels - mainly anti-lockdown pro-business short-sighted right-wing shitfuckers from what I've seen.
Sure, there's plenty to pick at in the new system: another whole new set of rules to get used to; some areas clearly in the wrong tier (Redbridge with 302.4 per 100k, with cases rising put in tier 2, because London); whether now is the right time for this new system to come in (probably not, if it wasn't for Xmas lockdown would've probably been extended until cases came down some more). But the government have made many far worse decisions since March.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
You won’t be when the whole of London comes to visit
ddraig
kicking against the pricks...
Covered, apparently!
Covid: Cardiff police given random vehicle check powers
Officers are granted extra powers to search vehicles this weekend in Cardiff to stop Covid breaches.
www.bbc.co.uk
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I would have preferred another two weeks of lockdown but realistically that would lead to such a ruinous orgy of shopping in the week or so left between restrictions easing and christmas that any progress made would be swiftly undone. Cancelling christmas altogether, while perhaps the only sane and fair thing to do particularly in light of Eid having already been cancelled without warning, was never on the cards.
We're staying the fuck home for christmas anyway. I do miss my mum, but the important thing is to still have a mum this time next year, and for as many people as possible to have as many of their loved ones still with them as possible. Anyone talking about christmas spirit and goodwill to all men but forgetting the whole 'keep people alive' thing really needs to go fuck themselves.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Looks like the whole of Wales is heading towards the same restrictions as tier 3 in England.
Covid: Christmas tier rules being considered for Wales
Wales' first minister is looking at similar coronavirus rules as the top English and Scottish tiers.
www.bbc.co.uk
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I fear that tier 2 is just the waiting room until tier 3 is necessary, just like before. I hope not, but otherwise tier 3 for London before Christmas.
Where we are cases are still pretty low but hospital capacity is also very low so I'm happy to be in tier 2 and would be happier in tier 3.
BCBlues
Lend us a Twenner
Dont forget you can have alt-med tests on your eyes and such up in Durham
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
After this "lockdown" that isn't, despite being in very rural Northumberland, I'm lumped in with the Tyne/Wear conurbation and thus Tier 3.
Actually, not a problem, I'm still very much WFH and effectively still shielding. And I'm staying like that until 30+ days after the second jab.
I want other people to be able to hug their grannies next year ...
Actually, not a problem, I'm still very much WFH and effectively still shielding. And I'm staying like that until 30+ days after the second jab.
I want other people to be able to hug their grannies next year ...
20Bees
Well-Known Member
How will the 'travel window' to get students home for Christmas work? | ITV News
The government has announced after lockdown ends in England, students will have a limited window to travel home to spend Christmas with their families. | ITV National News
www.itv.com
The student travel window is from 3 to 9 December and will see countless spider-webs of journeys criss-crossing the U.K. during the tier system announced today.
‘Students will be encouraged to practice “refined behaviour” in the days between the end of lockdown and their return home.
More information about what “refined behaviour” entails will be released in a communication campaign by the government closer to the time’.
(From the link above, to the ITV article on 11 November).
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