Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[teuchter]

From the REACT report



Round 5: 18/9 to 5/10
Round 6: 16/10 to 2/11

Round 6a: 16/10 to 25/10
Round 6b 26/10 to 2/11

In other words the left hand map illustrates change between late september and late october; the right hand map illustrates change between mid october and late october.

 

[elbows]

Maybe, although the Zoe app at least shows these trends continuing. Encouraging that the various methods broadly agree with one another.

Yes I dont think half term was the only significant thing likely to have made a difference at that time or subsequently. But it is equivalent to a quick jab quite hard on the brakes, so I feel bound to mention it when people are mostly considering the other stuff like regional restrictions, reduced opening times, and then the national measures.

 

[elbows]

Northern Ireland have extended their measures by a week but there was a lot of political disagreement involved.

Covid-19 restrictions in NI extended for one more week

A proposal from the DUP was supported as the executive faced pressure to reach a compromise.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[maomao]

An alternative explanation for seasonal rates of infection. I was pooh-poohed on these boards when I suggested this as one of the many possible explanations for seasonal waves of infection:

Seasonal rhythms within immune systems may explain infection rates – study

Study finds fluctuations in white blood cells according to time of day and season, suggesting stronger or weaker immune function

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

An alternative explanation for seasonal rates of infection. I was pooh-poohed on these boards when I suggested this as one of the many possible explanations for seasonal waves of infection:

Seasonal rhythms within immune systems may explain infection rates – study

Study finds fluctuations in white blood cells according to time of day and season, suggesting stronger or weaker immune function

www.theguardian.com

Its interesting stuff, one of the areas where it drives me mad that we still understand so little about it.

I'm pretty neutral on the subject due to the lack of study so I probably didnt pooh-pooh it, but I remember pooh-poohing ideas about the virus itself having its own rhythm that could explain epidemic waves.

 

[elbows]

Plus if they study it too hard and act on the implications, it could be the end of night shifts and we might consider spending less hours indulging in infection-prone activities at times of the year where there are less hours of daylight. But this is a rather crude interpretation on my part of those tentative findings.

 

[elbows]

The BBC have not currently found a nice, convenient, comforting reason for the increase in positive cases reported today.

BBC health and science correspondent James Gallagher said the spike in cases could have been driven by changes in people's behaviour in the run-up to England's four-week national lockdown, which began on 5 November but was announced on 31 October

Triggle doesnt have any sugar coating either.

We've not seen this kind of jump before - it is both 10,000 above Wednesday's figure and the current rolling average.

It's unclear why this is. The government says there was no backlog of tests that were processed, which could have explained it.

The mass testing in Liverpool is not thought to be feeding into the figure yet.
The number of tests processed has gone up, but that has happened previously without returning such a high number of positive cases.

An increase in socialising last week ahead of lockdown could be a factor.

Covid: UK daily cases reach new high of 33,470

The jump in cases comes a day after the UK became the first European country to pass 50,000 deaths.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

And there was a retail and recreation spike in UK google mobility data, before that figure then fell.



from https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-11-08_GB_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

 

[maomao]

Plus if they study it too hard and act on the implications, it could be the end of night shifts and we might consider spending less hours indulging in infection-prone activities at times of the year where there are less hours of daylight. But this is a rather crude interpretation on my part of those tentative findings.

It's already well established that working nights knocks years off your life but that knowledge hasn't lead to any decrease in night working. I don't think the findings prove anything about covid btw, it's just another 'could be' on the long list of possible reasons for seasonal variation that aren't as simple as 'cold weather'.

 

[elbows]

They updated the deaths on the dashboard and todays reporting figure is 563.

Assuming they havent made a mess of the data, by date of death the UK figure for November 9th is already 400.

 

[Teaboy]

I don't get this thinking at all. It's like people don't get how vaccines work. As if it can somehow retroactively make things better.

It really should make it easier, lock down hard now to save lives until the vaccine is ready and distributed. Having some light at the end of the tunnel should make it eraser for people to mange being locked down.

Yeah but you're looking at it from a different angle. There is already massive pressure to move on from this and whilst its primarily from business its much wider than that. There is a large movement to move on and start rebuilding and a vaccine is the catalyst for that.

I mentioned this before but the day after the vaccine announcement my partner watched the head boss of a major UK advertising agency go into a long rant about how everything should be back to normal ASAP now that a vaccine is on its way. Not when it arrives, not when enough people have been given it but now.

The pressure to get out of this malaise and move on is intense. You may not feel it and you're right it doesn't make logical sense from a healthcare perspective but I very much doubt the government will now impose any increased restrictions unless the situation becomes catastrophic.

ETA: But they should close the fucking schools.

 

[elbows]

The government already failed to act sufficiently and in good enough time to prevent healthcare in the North reaching terrible levels. They did not go far enough until the hospital limits that force them to act were in sight. The vaccine news doesnt change that fundamental calculation. I know it changes some of the pressure and noise, but ultimately there is a level of hospital pressure that trumps all else. And if the vaccine news leads to widespread stupid behavioural changes with consequences for the infection rate, then the government will end up having to go further to compensate for that.

 

[Teaboy]

The government already failed to act sufficiently and in good enough time to prevent healthcare in the North reaching terrible levels. They did not go far enough until the hospital limits that force them to act were in sight. The vaccine news doesnt change that fundamental calculation. I know it changes some of the pressure and noise, but ultimately there is a level of hospital pressure that trumps all else. And if the vaccine news leads to widespread stupid behavioural changes with consequences for the infection rate, then the government will end up having to go further to compensate for that.

Yes, well put.

I've no sympathy for the government but right now I wouldn't want to be in their shoes. They're in a horrible bind.

 

[Cid]

Yes, well put.

I've no sympathy for the government but right now I wouldn't want to be in their shoes. They're in a horrible bind.

Of their own making.

 

[Johnny Doe]

ETA: But they should close the fucking schools.

My main mates' whatsappb group has 21 of us on it. 4 of 21 have had kids sent home this week with classes or whole schools closed. All North London

 

[editor]

Yes, well put.

I've no sympathy for the government but right now I wouldn't want to be in their shoes. They're in a horrible bind.

This government should be held criminally negligent for their incompetent handling of the crisis, their dodgy 'jobs and fat contracts for pals' policy and the thousands of preventable deaths that their fucking idiocy has caused.

 

[Numbers]

Just been up my high street, it’s actually quite depressing how busy it is. The school kids don’t give a fuck about distancing and in general it’s very lax.

 

[Supine]

Prof Pagel's summary of the UK numbers on today's indy sage is probably the best explanation I've seen throughout the situation. Worth a watch.

 

[sojourner]

Went the tesco this morning. Absolutely rammed again, people queueing up each aisle for the checkouts.

 

[The39thStep]

Went the tesco this morning. Absolutely rammed again, people queueing up each aisle for the checkouts.

Aren’t there quotas on numbers in supermarkets in the U.K.?

 

[gentlegreen]

Aren’t there quotas on numbers in supermarkets in the U.K.?

My local Aldi has sensors and a red / green light.
the deli up the road has a limit of 5 in the shop and had a portable unit for a while ...

 

[Ms Ordinary]

There are more people in my office this month than last, a couple of people who were furloughed due to (mild) vulnerabilities returned to work at the beginning of November, more or less out of boredom. They drive & don't use public transport.

I know a few other people who worked at home through the first lockdown & right through the summer, who started commuting in by train a few days a week in October when their offices partially opened - none of those people have gone back to WFH this month.

To be fair, although I said boredom, most of those people were genuinely going a bit nuts from the isolation of WFH (they didn't start going out over the summer when a lot of other people did & were just getting confidence to head out again recently).

I don't know anyone who's restricted their work pattern, unless they were forced to (retail/hospitality).

 

[killer b]

Aren’t there quotas on numbers in supermarkets in the U.K.?

I think there might be in theory, but I've not seen them enforced since the summer. In supermarkets at least - other shops I've been in have operated fairly strict number controls.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Went the tesco this morning. Absolutely rammed again, people queueing up each aisle for the checkouts.

That's odd, my local Tesco reintroduced a queueing system a week or two before this 'lockdown' started.

 

[wtfftw]

Been out to my local shops. Much busier than I expected. And as I ducked into boots I heard a woman shout, "it's supposed to be lockdown".

 

[Johnny Doe]

That's odd, my local Tesco reintroduced a queueing system a week or two before this 'lockdown' started.

Yeah, just back from our big Asda* and it's quiet but well controlled. When it was busy last Saturday evening they were operating to a strict capacity and you had to queue.

*Incidentally, are we meant to hate Asda? Our local one is well run and the staff always seem quite happy. Could be forced customer service friendliness, but doesn't feel that way

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I went to Tesco last week and they were limiting numbers, I was quite lucky in timing as there was a queue round the building by the time I left. Guess it's down to the individual store whether they do it properly or not though.

 

[miss direct]

Been out to my local shops. Much busier than I expected. And as I ducked into boots I heard a woman shout, "it's supposed to be lockdown".

Lol so what was she doing out then?

 

[wtfftw]

Lol so what was she doing out then?

Panicking by the sound of it.

 

[brogdale]

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