Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Of course . I think there are some countries now where you have to have proof of a negative test before you can fly .
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
Tests for people arriving here would have been a good plan, bit late now though
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Closing the borders earlier would have been better, then tests to re-open.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The list of 67 additional locations for mass testing provides some guide as to what locations they are most worried about at the moment. It is included in the latter part of this article.
Covid: Mass testing for 67 local areas in England
Areas including Nottinghamshire, Yorkshire and parts of the West Midlands will receive new rapid tests.
www.bbc.co.uk
The list of 67 additional locations for mass testing provides some guide as to what locations they are most worried about at the moment. It is included in the latter part of this article.
Covid: Mass testing for 67 local areas in England
Areas including Nottinghamshire, Yorkshire and parts of the West Midlands will receive new rapid tests.www.bbc.co.uk
Looking at the London boroughs there is also a crossover with where they have existing drive thru testing facilities as well which can be scaled up. Which makes sense.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes, various practicalities are the other consideration I suppose.
My focus on hospital infection control means I was also pleased to hear Hancock mention twice weekly testing for staff being rolled out, although I dread to think how long it will take to make that comprehensive. Should have been in place months ago really.
UK to roll out twice-weekly testing for health service staff
Britain will start rolling out twice-a-week COVID-19 tests to all National Health Service (NHS) staff from Tuesday, health minister Matt Hancock said, in order to protect patients and health workers.
www.reuters.com
Johnny Doe
Well-Known Member
So at my old house you weren't far from us and at my new one your folks are similarly near
Cloo
Approved by toads
Obviously in some strange orbit around one another!So at my old house you weren't far from us and at my new one your folks are similarly near
miss direct
misfungled
532...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The figure of deaths reported on a Tuesday is always high, but that's well up on last Tuesday's figure of 397.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Anyone got any ideas what's going on with the daily new cases numbers?
For the last 3 weeks they've hovered between 20,000 and 25,000 per day. It looks like new cases have leveled off, which would be great. But other things might be going on.
The new cases figure has always reflected the testing system. The number of tests processed in that time dropped significantly before going back up again. Could it be that the current testing system has reached the limit of new cases it can detect.
Could it be that while new cases are dropping in some badly affected areas - parts of the north? universities? - that masks rises in other areas - London? the south?
These figures will be for people who caught the virus before the new national 'lockdown'. That only came in 5 days ago, about the incubation period of the virus, so people who caught it since then will only be showing up from now. Did the regional lockdowns have an impact, either by working as intended, or by causing people to change their behavior or take more care in those areas?
Something else?
Obviously time will tell but while we wait, any speculation or insights?
For the last 3 weeks they've hovered between 20,000 and 25,000 per day. It looks like new cases have leveled off, which would be great. But other things might be going on.
The new cases figure has always reflected the testing system. The number of tests processed in that time dropped significantly before going back up again. Could it be that the current testing system has reached the limit of new cases it can detect.
Could it be that while new cases are dropping in some badly affected areas - parts of the north? universities? - that masks rises in other areas - London? the south?
These figures will be for people who caught the virus before the new national 'lockdown'. That only came in 5 days ago, about the incubation period of the virus, so people who caught it since then will only be showing up from now. Did the regional lockdowns have an impact, either by working as intended, or by causing people to change their behavior or take more care in those areas?
Something else?
Obviously time will tell but while we wait, any speculation or insights?
Steel Icarus
we move
625 per 100,000 cases in NE Lincs now. Fucking hell. 950 cases last week.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
What you mean is 625 (and 80.5) new positive test results in the past 7 days per 100,000 population, isn't it?
Not cases.
According to Zoe (if you believe it), NE Lincs is currently estimated at about 2400 active cases per 100,000 population, and Worthing at about 500.
Meanwhile most of London seems to be wobbling around between about 600 and 800.
Not cases.
According to Zoe (if you believe it), NE Lincs is currently estimated at about 2400 active cases per 100,000 population, and Worthing at about 500.
Meanwhile most of London seems to be wobbling around between about 600 and 800.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
The Zoe project - again, if you believe it's getting it right, as these are estimates - seems to think there has been a drop off in total active cases in the past wee or so.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont think I have anything new to add, I already talked about that stuff for weeks.
Use the weekly surveillance reports to look at positive cases broekn down into age ranges and by region, and to see things like positivity rate.
National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports
National influenza and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.
And even then, dont rely on positive case data alone, since like you said we wont nevessarily be able to tell the difference between cases plateauing and the system reaching the limits of how many cases its likely to pick up. Although some clues can be found by looking into the case data in more detail, as per my previous point with the weekly surveillance report.
Augment the picture by using survey-testing type surveillance, such as zoe covids figures and the weekly ONS report.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
Estimates for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust.
www.ons.gov.uk
Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE
COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app
covid.joinzoe.com
At times like these I end up paying more attention to hospital data, although admissions stats arent perfect either and they can be influenced by multiple factors. All the same they indicate what is happening at the sharp end of things.
I dont find it that easy to pick the right moments to try to describe the picture accurately. There is always a fair chance that tomorrows data will leave me with a different impression than the data I have now, especially when searching for signs of a levelling off or meaningful and sustained drop.
I will still force myself to talk about the hospital admissions picture at some point in the coming days, because there are some indicators there of a picture that has been changing in the last few weeks, but the detail matters and there is some notable regional variation. I can see why some have described a levelling off in recent times, but when I look deeper it is no way near that simple and so I think such a characterisation ends up being quite inappropriate. I will try to explain better when I have a graph or two on a regional basis, and several days more data.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And yes just to put it bluntly, it is reasonable to think there may have been a peak and subsequent fall in younger people very much including uni students, and that this may obscure the infection picture in more vulnerable age groups. I tend to talk about it on a Thursday or Friday, once the weekly surveillance report is out and I have time to look at it.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
Are the English from over the border flocking to the pubs now ?
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
I have my own lockdown atm
ddraig
kicking against the pricks...
Dunno! Safely in Cardiff a fair distance from the border here
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
A relatively short trip for desperate for a pint Bristolians
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Bad; so even with the 28 day stipulation that's >50k dead.595 further deaths reported, brings the UK over the 50k mark (50,365)
God know what the true figure is now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Bad; so even with the 28 day stipulation that's >50k dead.
God know what the true figure is now.
If I use ONS figures where Covid-19 is mentioned on death certificate, and where they added other organisations figures for Northern Ireland and Scotland to their publication since the ONS only covers England and Wales, then the highest UK number I get is 63005. Thats for the period up to 30th October.
If I try to use excess deaths as a guide then there are some complications, such as less people dying of other things during some parts of the year, including before the pandemic deaths started because the winter flu season was early and so deaths were lower than normal early on. If I fiddle around a bit with the time periods I use for excess death, to avoid the pre-pandemic period, then I can get very close to 69,000 excess deaths so far. But its not possible for me to account for everything, including less deaths of various sorts than normal due to lockdown, reduced economic activity, reduced pollution etc. I know people were often looking for more deaths of other sorts due to lockdown, and there may have been some of those, but the documents from experts trying to predict this stuff thought there would initially be a decrease in non-covid deaths rather than an increase, since thats what happens at the start of recessions etc, less death not more. Longer term the economic consequences make that flip eventually. And then there is also the picture with people not seeking or receiving the same medical care they would have without the pandemic.
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