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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

quimcunx said:
My brother is doing the tests in dundee. And is quite annoyed because they're meant to be bacterial infections he works on but the viral people don't have the level 3 something something so they're doing it and having to do all the extra protocols while the viral people are getting off with it. Rumours are saying it someone in dundee. Maybe he'll find out tomorrow at work.
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My only updates on this are

It wasnt my brother who did the test as he hasnt done any for a week* and they were all negative and allegedly the covid19er has been sent to edinburgh.

*quite glad of this as I've just been visiting him.
 
UK Govt 'Plan'
  • If police lose "significant staff" numbers to illness, they would "concentrate on responding to serious crimes and maintaining public order".
  • In a "stretching scenario", it is possible that up to one fifth of employees may be absent from work during peak weeks.
  • Everyone will face increased pressures at work, as well as potentially their own illness and caring responsibilities. Supporting staff welfare "will be critical" for businesses.
  • The UK has stockpiles of medicines for the NHS, plus protective clothing and equipment for medical staff.
  • The public can help delay the spread of the virus by washing hands with soap regularly, not spreading misinformation and relying on trusted sources. They should also ensure family vaccines are up to date and check on family, friends and neighbours. They should also check Foreign Office advice before travelling abroad and be understanding of the pressures the health service is under.
  • The public will be asked to accept that "the advice for managing Covid-19 for most people will be self-isolation at home and simple over the counter medicines".
  • If coronavirus becomes established, there will be a focus on essential services and helping those "most at risk to access the right treatment".
  • During the mitigation phase, when the virus is much more widespread, "pressures on services and wider society may become significant and clearly noticeable".
  • The Ministry of Defence will provide support as needed, including to essential services.
  • There will be increased Government communication with Parliament, the public and the media if the virus becomes more widespread.
  • All Government departments to have a lead person for coronavirus.
  • If the virus takes hold, social distancing strategies could include school closures, encouraging greater home working, reducing the number of large scale gatherings and closing other educational settings.
  • It is possible that an outbreak or pandemic of Covid-19 could come in multiple waves.
  • Non-urgent operations and other procedures could be cancelled, and hospital discharges monitored to free-up beds, with appropriate care in people's homes.
  • Hospital worker shifts could be altered and leavers or retirees called "back to duty".
  • Measures exist to help businesses with short-term cash flow problems.
  • There is a distribution strategy for sending out key medicines and equipment to NHS and social care.
  • This strain of coronavirus is new and people have a lack of immunity to it, meaning "Covid-19 has the potential to spread extensively".
  • Everyone is susceptible to catching the disease and thus it is "more likely than not that the UK will be significantly affected".
  • There could be an "increase in deaths arising from the outbreak, particularly among vulnerable and elderly groups".
  • While most people will suffer mild to moderate symptoms, similar to seasonal flu, some will need hospital care due to pneumonia developing.
  • Young children can become infected and "suffer severe illness", but overall the illness is less common in the under-20s.
 
I wont have time to read the plan till later. But from the sounds of media reports, the government are indeed planning to save the draconian measures for the time when the first big peak wave is beginning to ramp up.

If there is a widespread transmission - which seems highly likely at this stage - it could take two or three months to peak. The peak would last two or three weeks and around 50% of people who become infected could become infected in those peak weeks.

There would then be a period of two or three months of declining cases, although the battle plan acknowledges there could be multiple waves.

The government is likely to use its most drastic measures at its disposal just ahead of the peak in an attempt to flatten it.
Click to expand...

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Up to fifth of UK workers 'could be off sick at same time'

Non-urgent NHS care may be delayed if the coronavirus outbreak worsens, the government says, as the number of UK cases rises to 51.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
bimble said:
How is that anything but post-horse barn door shutting ??
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Mostly because the plan does not really involve trying to completely eliminate transmission of the disease, just reducing it with the aim of hugely flattening the peak. Its the peak(s) they are bothered about, because thats when the strain to various sytems will become immense.

As expected there is no fixed timing baked into the plan. Having now read it, there was nothing much for me to comment on. Other than thinking that having Research as its own phase is a bit of a fudge really, research will actually carry on at its own pace throughout all the phases, and I get the impression they only included it as its own phase so they could go on about it explicitly using the phase structure.
 
A bit more on the latest UK cases:

Eight patients had recently travelled from Italy, one from Germany, one from Singapore, one from Japan and one from Iran. The patients are from London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside and Kent. All are being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

The total number of confirmed cases in England is now 48 (one previously reported positive case was retested and found to be negative) and with each of the previously reported single cases in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, the total number of UK cases has reached 51.
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1h ago 15:37

Not sure what to make of the positive case that subsequently tested negative being removed from the tally - my opinion would depend on more detail, such as whether they had any particular reason to think the positive test was faulty.
 
quimcunx said:
My brother is doing the tests in dundee. And is quite annoyed because they're meant to be bacterial infections he works on but the viral people don't have the level 3 something something so they're doing it and having to do all the extra protocols while the viral people are getting off with it. Rumours are saying it someone in dundee. Maybe he'll find out tomorrow at work.
Click to expand...
My dad (retired, but still loves a bit of sticking his oar in) has just asked this, can your brother shed any light?

IMG_20200303_193132.jpg
 
I expect it is down to bad organisation and that with practice and increases in demand they will probably up their game.
 
Is it actually taking a week? I havent kept up with that aspect at all so I am utterly unsure.

The only check of this I have had time to do is that I notice that 2 Bury cases that were reported to have tested positive today are said to be known contacts of the first Bury confirmed case, whose positive was reported 2 days ago.
 
I wonder how many isolation beds the NHS could make available if they needed to? China apparently bought in a lot of ventilators and in severe cases were taking the patient's blood outside the body to re-oxygenate it. (probably not the right terminology, I am not medical). And in Wuhan of course (a city the size of London) they made two and a half thousand extra beds available with the two new hospitals that they built.
 
Well even if you can get the space and equipment, you need the people too. Hence the plans for calling up retired doctors and nurses, an idea thats had a very mixed response due to the number of people in that category who no longer feel they could perform the physically demanding aspects of the job, not to mention the number of them that will be in the at risk category for serious Covid-19 complications themselves.

China has a lot of people and also because it was a mostly localised outbreak, they could move resources and people from other parts of the country, giving them surge capacity. Whether that sort of thing will be any sort of option in the UK will depend on outbreak wave timing & geographical spread.
 
Sure, it all depends on may things, and it is early days in the UK story so far.

Do we have any travel restrictions in place yet? Last I heard there were still flights arriving from Italy without any special temperature checks being made on the passengers, though if they were just at the incubation stage of course that wouldn't detect anything. But is it wise not to have any travel restrictions in place while the virus has expanded around the world as it has?
 
Regarding surge capacity by moving resources around the country, unfortunately I have to say I am not very optimistic that many other countries will have the relative 'luxury' of having the main initial large outbreak in one place like China did. Because with Wuhan that was the very initial seeding event. Everywhere else since then has had multiple opportunities for multiple seeds to be planted, so there could be a lot of independent outbreaks that build off the back of all these seeds, and I would assume a bunch with rather similar timing.

I've got nothing much to say about travel restrictions or lack thereof. I wouldnt quite call it a red herring, but its of relatively little interest to me, and things that are less than outright bans (such as flight cancellations and public perceptions of risk) have some impact anyway.
 
I genuinely at a bit of a loss at what to say to my elderly parents , (both late 80s), about the virus. My natural instinct is to offer reassurance but I fear the reality may prove to be very bleak for the elderly. :(
I suppose I'm most concerned that if they both fall ill together, they will look to the NHS to come to their aid and, who knows...by such a stage...we may be well into rationing by cohort and, as for the oldest...well...hmmm.
Apols if this is all a bit dark...just not liking the look of this.
 
elbows said:
Well even if you can get the space and equipment, you need the people too. Hence the plans for calling up retired doctors and nurses, an idea thats had a very mixed response due to the number of people in that category who no longer feel they could perform the physically demanding aspects of the job, not to mention the number of them that will be in the at risk category for serious Covid-19 complications themselves.
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Indeed, and the fact that the media hasn't really challenged the Government on that rather important point (or other points like how they can recall them, whether they would come back anyway, how they'd renumerate them, what hours they'd work or how they will deal with what may be several years worth of training that might need to be delivered) is pretty worrying.

That said its not as bad an idea as this latest one of moving kids around when a particular school is closed because of an outbreak there, something that might actually be designed to infect as many schoolchildren as possible.
 
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