Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Well that's all well and good but we can't be far away from herd immunity?

Due to an unfortunate hearing error it turns out that the only threshold that may be reached is that of herd buffoonery.

 

[Brainaddict]

Most people are still thinking about hand washing and physical distance because that's what they've been told to think about. The government has not bothered to educate them properly on transmission in enclosed spaces.

Most people are still thinking of covid as something you die from or survive, rather than something potentially debilitating to many survivors. Government doesn't like to talk about it.

And the government reject the circuit breaker lockdown that is the only thing that could make up (somewhat) for their previous negligence.

It's mass manslaughter caused by gross negligence. I can't think of it any other way now.

 

[quimcunx]

I wonder what is going into guidance for businesses? You would hope that at least would have a bigly section on shared spaces and ventilation. So probably one sentence about opening a window if there is one.

 

[pesh]

sounds like the whole country will be in the chips with your pint tier soon then.

 

[Brainaddict]

I wonder what is going into guidance for businesses? You would hope that at least would have a bigly section on shared spaces and ventilation. So probably one sentence about opening a window if there is one.

I think they're advised to ventilate well but many don't, and most people don't bother to check for it ime. Still plenty of places with doors shut when they could easily prop it open.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Most people are still thinking about hand washing and physical distance because that's what they've been told to think about. The government has not bothered to educate them properly on transmission in enclosed spaces.

In-laws are round now. Mrs SI set the room up to be distanced but her da has just sat near the TV, has been passing his phone to my lad, my lad has moaned he's cold so the patio door has been shut...ffs

 

[Oula]

I wonder what is going into guidance for businesses? You would hope that at least would have a bigly section on shared spaces and ventilation. So probably one sentence about opening a window if there is one.

Husband has been told to open the windows at work. It has been suggested that he shouldn't refuse to work due to covid fears but if keeping the window open makes the room too cold he should refuse to work on that basis.

 

[elbows]

The final graph of this weeks UK figures by date of actual death with colour-coded reporting dates.

I will stop with this particular graph for a while, until such a time as there is confusion that it can help explain, or the trajectory clearly changes, or if I have cause to compare it to some specific modelled predictions.

 

[frogwoman]

26th seems to have been a terrible day

 

[elbows]

26th seems to have been a terrible day

Subsequent days will be expected to be worse once more deaths are entered into that system. The 26th is just continuing the trend seen previously, as subsequent days will eventually and inevitably tend to reach new highs during periods when the trajectory is upwards.

I have a particular eye on the 26th but only because it was the date that certain modelling predictions looked at. Since the numbers for that date are still growing it is too soon for me to perform my final comparison between the two model estimates and the real number on that date.

 

[elbows]

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan believes a tier three London lockdown is “highly likely” in the coming weeks if the government does not introduce national circuit breaker restrictions, according to City Hall sources.

He has repeatedly called for a short nationwide lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus, arguing that early action would halt the worst health and economic consequences of a second wave.

Every borough now has more than 100 infections per 100,000 people, with more than 200 per 100,000 in three council areas – Ealing, Hammersmith and Fulham, and Kingston.

A source close to the mayor said: “The more we delay in implementing measures, the more stringent they need to be and the longer they have to be in place."

From earlier today, 13:54 of BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54745196

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Most people are still thinking about hand washing and physical distance because that's what they've been told to think about. The government has not bothered to educate them properly on transmission in enclosed spaces.

Most people are still thinking of covid as something you die from or survive, rather than something potentially debilitating to many survivors. Government doesn't like to talk about it.

And the government reject the circuit breaker lockdown that is the only thing that could make up (somewhat) for their previous negligence.

It's mass manslaughter caused by gross negligence. I can't think of it any other way now.

It's the complete failure to have a proper test and trace system in place that does it for me. Even if they did a circuit breaker it wouldn't mean much without a proper T&T after it ended. It seems that the only way this thing gets managed is if you cut levels down to manageable ones then really aggressively test and trace, thus doing what are effectively super aggressive but micro lockdowns, which leave the rest of society relatively free. But actually they'd rather just fuck about paying enormous sums to cronies who muff it and are amazingly getting worse.

 

[hash tag]

And what will happen, will anyone take any action

Evidence of Dominic Cummings offences in dossier, ex-chief prosecutor claims

EXCLUSIVE: Nazir Afzal claims his solicitors have uncovered new evidence they have submitted in a 225-page dossier to the Crown Prosecution Service

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[elbows]

It's the complete failure to have a proper test and trace system in place that does it for me. Even if they did a circuit breaker it wouldn't mean much without a proper T&T after it ended. It seems that the only way this thing gets managed is if you cut levels down to manageable ones then really aggressively test and trace, thus doing what are effectively super aggressive but micro lockdowns, which leave the rest of society relatively free. But actually they'd rather just fuck about paying enormous sums to cronies who muff it and are amazingly getting worse.

Its a significant part of how to do it properly, but I still think the concept has been oversold and so long as countries insist on reopening various things and keeping mass face to face teaching going, there come periods in the epidemic waves when test & trace has no chance. For example the first time around Germany got a lot of praise for amount of testing & contact tracing, but its probably far from the only reason they did relatively well. And its not been enough to allow Germany to prevent a resurgence and some form of milder lockdown in response to the resurgence, or from having to lockdown the first time around.

None of that is an excuse for doing it badly. But expectations of what even a good system could achieve have been oversold for sure. Most of the lights at the end of the tunnel are actually pretty dim in isolation, we need combinations.

I wouldnt expect short circuit breakers to bring the numbers down to a level where contact tracing could be really effective again, they dont tend to last long enough for that, but we shall see. On the testing side of things the numbers game can be changed by bringing in the other forms of testing, but this will only lead to a sea change if the self-isolation compliance side of things improves a lot.

 

[scifisam]

It was shocking that it t&t over a week to get to me, though. The actual isolation was down to my friend calling me, not them.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Its a significant part of how to do it properly, but I still think the concept has been oversold and so long as countries insist on reopening various things and keeping mass face to face teaching going, there come periods in the epidemic waves when test & trace has no chance. For example the first time around Germany got a lot of praise for amount of testing & contact tracing, but its probably far from the only reason they did relatively well. And its not been enough to allow Germany to prevent a resurgence and some form of milder lockdown in response to the resurgence, or from having to lockdown the first time around.

None of that is an excuse for doing it badly. But expectations of what even a good system could achieve have been oversold for sure. Most of the lights at the end of the tunnel are actually pretty dim in isolation, we need combinations.

I wouldnt expect short circuit breakers to bring the numbers down to a level where contact tracing could be really effective again, they dont tend to last long enough for that, but we shall see. On the testing side of things the numbers game can be changed by bringing in the other forms of testing, but this will only lead to a sea change if the self-isolation compliance side of things improves a lot.

Yeah, no, none of the aspects are solutions in themselves and all need to be part of an overall system; this is just the particular thing that's making me cross at the moment. I'm sure I will move on to something else. It's not like they are doing any of it right that I can see, so plenty of opportunities.

And that in itself makes things worse because when it's so obvious there's no plan or real effort, just an array of half-hearted and apparently random regulations which they seem to personally break as and when they feel like it, nobody trusts a central message anyway. I mean I don't, why should anyone else?

 

[SpookyFrank]

And what will happen, will anyone take any action

Evidence of Dominic Cummings offences in dossier, ex-chief prosecutor claims

EXCLUSIVE: Nazir Afzal claims his solicitors have uncovered new evidence they have submitted in a 225-page dossier to the Crown Prosecution Service

www.mirror.co.uk

It actually says in that article that nobody will take any action.

 

[hash tag]

No surprises though

 

[StoneRoad]

It actually says in that article that nobody will take any action.

That's not a surprise, despite it probably being the trigger for a lot of the non-compliance problems that are developing.

More a case of Us & Them (as in rules for the plebs don't apply to me)

 

[platinumsage]

Lockdown coming next week

 

[Steel Icarus]

In what fucking way is keeping schools, colleges and unis open a lockdown

 

[Steel Icarus]

In a sane universe this should be the ruin of this lot, simply for pretending not to see what was coming. But of course there's no sanity here any more.

 

[zora]

Wow, I didn't expect to see non-essential retail on there!

 

[Steel Icarus]

Plus that surely should read "essential shops"

 

[zora]

Oh yeah, I see, it actually says the opposite, but yeah that must be a typo? Otoh, all retail closing has not been on the cards for a long time...interesting...

 

[Orang Utan]

I bet I still have to go to work, but tbh, that’s better than staying at home

 

[LDC]

In what fucking way is keeping schools, colleges and unis open a lockdown

I think school for under-16s is a fair one though, keeping them open is a priority for many different groups of people. Sixth forms and universities though should totally close/move to online teaching.

At fucking last though.

 

[planetgeli]

At fucking last though.

It's a newspaper headline that no other paper is running with yet.

I wouldn't go counting chickens quite yet.

 

[Elpenor]

I’m currently working for a company that supplies school cleaners so I expect I will still need to work as the staff will still want paying.

However I do expect this to delay my house move again!

 

[LDC]

It's a newspaper headline that no other paper is running with yet.

I wouldn't go counting chickens quite yet.

The pressure has significantly built the last few days though, even been a change in tone in the media today, I do think they'll have to crack very soon.