Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Sue]

With impeccable timing as ever, my work was trying to encourage people to go back to the office earlier...

 

[magneze]

It's a newspaper headline that no other paper is running with yet.

I wouldn't go counting chickens quite yet.

The Mail has it too it seems.

 

[zora]

With impeccable timing as ever, my work was trying to encourage people to go back to the office earlier...

I settled for the "wow" emoji, but could have just as well gone for laughing, crying or don't know whether to laugh or cry anymore one..

 

[magneze]

Now breaking news on the Mirror too.

 

[Cloo]

Just in time for my birthday! Woo! It's the right thing to do though. Have already organised a Zoom party anyway.

But a bit pointless to try to do it so people can have Christmas though - the message should be (and I know I'm a fucking broken record on this) - no big family Christmas this year, it's not an option in any circumstances.

 

[Sue]

I settled for the "wow" emoji, but could have just as well gone for laughing, crying or don't know whether to laugh or cry anymore one..

Yeah, it didn't go down very well. It makes no sense whatever -- it's a technology company and we've all been working from home since March, really, really don't understand. (They tried this before, right before the Government told everyone who could to start working from home again. )

 

[William of Walworth]

If that Times story is accurate at all, it looks like some sort of lockdown in England will start next Wednesday -- 4th November.

That is, not far ahead of Wales' one being lifted -- end of Welsh lockdown due to come in on Monday 9th November ....

Just saying!!

 

[planetgeli]

The Mirror story says "According to The Times"

The Times story says "No final decision has been made."

Wednesday 4th is "could be" in The Times article.

Just saying.

 

[planetgeli]

If that Times story is accurate at all, it looks like some sort of lockdown in England will start next Wednesday -- 4th November.

That is, not far ahead of Wales' one being lifted -- end of Welsh lockdown due to come in on Monday 9th November ....

Just saying!!

Indeed. How does this fit in with the co-ordinated approach to Christmas that Drakeford is claiming Johnson wants?

The UK government intends to hold a meeting to discuss a UK-wide approach to Covid rules at Christmas, the Welsh first minister has said.
Mark Drakeford said PM Boris Johnson had told him to expect an invitation to talks on a "common approach".
Mr Drakeford said there was a need for leaders to "get round the table" and "share ideas".

 

[Artaxerxes]

With impeccable timing as ever, my work was trying to encourage people to go back to the office earlier...

We've 200 odd people returning from furlough on Monday.

 

[ska invita]

It's a newspaper headline that no other paper is running with yet.

I wouldn't go counting chickens quite yet.

 

[Wilf]

Eat out to help out may have lead to up to 1/5 of the August clusters:

'Eat out to help out' may have caused sixth of Covid clusters over summer

Treasury rejects researcher’s claim that its scheme was closely linked to rise in cases

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

I see the BBC fact checking service did a real number on the dangerous, shitty and entirely self-interested claims of sir cunt Rocco Forte.

Contains quite a lot of interesting graphs of pneumonia and flu deaths. Not that those graphs tell the whole story properly, but I will save my tedious lecture about that for some other time.

Covid: Sir Rocco Forte's claims fact-checked

The hotelier says the government "overreacted" and "panicked" in its response to the pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Eat out to help out may have lead to up to 1/5 of the August clusters:

'Eat out to help out' may have caused sixth of Covid clusters over summer

Treasury rejects researcher’s claim that its scheme was closely linked to rise in cases

www.theguardian.com

Seems like a good opportunity for me to repeat some Johnson quotes from October 4th, where I'm sure his language was far too much of an admission for the Treasuries liking:

Mr Johnson also stood by the Eat Out to Help Out restaurant discount introduced in August, which some critics have said added to the rise in coronavirus cases in September.

"In so far as that scheme may have helped to spread the virus then obviously we need to counteract that and we need to counteract that with the discipline and the measures that we're proposing," he said.

But he insisted it was "right to reopen the economy" as the government tries to "strike the right balance".

Mr Johnson said he took "full responsibility for everything that has happened since the pandemic began".

From a Marr interview detailed at Covid: Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

 

[PursuedByBears]

Guardian has it now as well

 

[elbows]

Guardian has it now as well

National Covid lockdown expected across England next week

Boris Johnson bows to pressure from experts who warned worst-case scenario could soon be surpassed

www.theguardian.com

Yes and I'm focussing on the timing in regards Christmas from the Guardian article, because there is a real possibility the Christmas angle could end up being used by the government.

Tildesley, an epidemiologist from the University of Warwick, helped produce a “reasonable worst-case scenario” for the modelling sub-group of Sage, which warned that 85,000 people could die from Covid this winter.

He told the Guardian: “As epidemiologists we need to think about the impact on public health and that’s really key, but I think it’s important for us to acknowledge that the general public has had a pretty rotten year [but] I don’t think any of the science group would advocate that we should remove all restrictions at Christmas – it’s clear that that’s not possible.

“But speaking on behalf of myself, what I would like to see is that we are in a position to do a minor relaxation, for example allowing slightly larger family groups to be together, maybe having the rule of 10 or 12 instead of six. To do that we have to do something like a circuit break or something on a more national scale to bring incidents down … sooner rather than later.”

Dr Julian Tang, a consultant virologist at Leicester Royal Infirmary, said: “If we started now I would say you’d need at least six weeks of lockdown with total compliance across the nation. The government would have to fund that because the economy would be catastrophically hit.

“Unfortunately after Christmas and new year the cases are going to rise again, but if we want that break we might have enough drop in [the reproduction number] to give everyone a break … If you say ‘if you want to save Christmas from the coronavirus Grinch’, then I think people will do it.”

Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said tighter restrictions in the devolved nations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland seemed to be working and that England should follow suit with a national circuit breaker.

“I think it should be done, I don’t really see any other options, but I don’t think it would allow us to have a normal Christmas,” she said. “However, I would hope if you did have a circuit breaker it would bring the whole country in line with tier 1 by Christmas.

“I’m cautiously optimistic here in Scotland that we might be able to meet people indoors from two or three households, say. It’s not normal, but it would allow you to see immediate family.”

 

[Miss-Shelf]

With impeccable timing as ever, my work was trying to encourage people to go back to the office earlier...

my work told us all to go back to campus again next week after two weeks teaching online - cynically I think it's just a pr for students so they don't withdraw now before a lockdown - it's a London university and London is said to have a 2.36 R rate at the moment

 

[Sue]

my work told us all to go back to campus again next week after two weeks teaching online - cynically I think it's just a pr for students so they don't withdraw now before a lockdown - it's a London university and London is said to have a 2.36 R rate at the moment

Yep, utterly stupid or cynical or both. The R rate in London was mentioned to management in a company meeting this afternoon and they were still saying they were 'encouraging' people to come back to the office. Ridiculous.

 

[Tankus]

maybe the Welsh one will get extended ?

 

[SlideshowBob]

maybe the Welsh one will get extended ?

I think they've stated quite definitively for now that it won't be extended, although that's not to say new measures won't come into place in a few weeks again if the situation doesn't improve.

 

[maomao]

IMO opinion this is a reaction to the economic situation not the death figures. The first lockdown happened because the economy was already collapsing (London was a ghost town well before we were all told to work from home, plenty had lost their jobs before the furlough scheme was brought in) and now the same thing is happening. The economy is in free fall again and they will be handing out just enough money to ensure rents and bills are paid.

Schools staying open will guarantee that transmission continues to some extent, probably with an R over 1, but it's understandable to do this, there is evidence of school closures causing widespread harm to children. But there's no excuse whatsoever for keeping universities open for face to face teaching.

I also note that the Daily Mail is still counting the lockdown from day 1 at the top of its front page. Today is LOCKDOWN DAY 222' apparently. Which suggests that to them any restrictions at all count as a 'lockdown'. I'm not expecting much from this new set of restrictions at all. Maybe pubs will close at 9.30?

 

[kabbes]

I don't understand their workings. The current daily death rate is probably now getting close to 100, will possibly hit that this week. And may continue to rise for next week, but why would it explode like that, given that the R numbers around the country, while still above 1, have been falling? Looking at hospital admissions, only two regions currently - NW and NE - are at levels much higher than around 10% of first wave peak. Most regions are not increasing rapidly. So in 12 days, it could be 150-odd perhaps. No way it could be 690. That just makes no sense at all. But they judge 690 to be more likely than 230!!!

Re looking at things regionally, of course that's important anywhere bigger than a single town, but doing that for Spain, for example, shows various places past peak now. Spain's overall rate of infection is now on its way down, but its rate of increase fell for a while first. It wasn't a sudden turnaround.

Any considerations for hospital infections also apply in Spain and France.

Like all good actuaries, I like to do a bit of backtesting of estimates. The 26 October death rate is probably reasonably represented by the 7-day average as at 30 October, which was 237 for the official reported count. So that 230-690 confidence interval for 26 October that we were talking about on 14 October looks like it did encapsulate the true number after all. Sadly, 150 was woefully short.

 

[bimble]

I see the headlines everywhere but no actual content - what sort of a lockdown are they talking about will it be like March?

 

[Badgers]

Leaking news to the press is the Tory policy so it is likely accurate

Also it is needed so I don't doubt it. Likely this will give people a chance to go mental again for a few days.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I see the headlines everywhere but no actual content - what sort of a lockdown are they talking about will it be like March?

That is being discussed over the weekend and will probably be finalised on Monday morning, then I guess announced in the Commons as I see a 'General Debate on Covid-19' is scheduled in the afternoon, followed by a Downing Street press briefing.

On a side note, having a drink with my brother yesterday afternoon, I said I expected some form of national lockdown to announced next week or the following, he disagreed, we have a £20 bet on it.

 

[bimble]

Silver linings, you win £20 and I get to feel smug about not caring at all whether the gyms close or not.
really hope this is a proper lockdown and that it actually works, not some more tinkering.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Silver linings, you win £20 and I get to feel smug about not caring at all whether the gyms close or not.
really hope this is a proper lockdown and that it actually works, not some more tinkering.

Nothing to be smug about, he offered the bet, so I took it.

Nothing to do with gyms either, I too hope it's a proper lockdown now, the only reason I used the words 'some form of....', is because I expect schools to remain open.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

So, a lockdown coming but schools and universities and workplaces will still be open.

So, not even a fucking lockdown then, is it?

 

[Badgers]

So, a lockdown coming but schools and universities and workplaces will still be open.

So, not even a fucking lockdown then, is it?

Is there details as to which businesses?

 

[cupid_stunt]

...not even the government ATM, nothing has been finalised.