Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

These are the numbers I'm looking at
View attachment 236428View attachment 236429View attachment 236430

But yes I see their headline estimate for today is 43,000 (based on 11th-25th Oct data)

Oh you were on about 20,000 because you were comparing the difference between each days total number of cases in that graph?

Dont do that, because thats total number of people they think have Covid-19 on a given day. And you cant just subtract one days number from another to get a number for new daily infections because their total number infected includes the removal of the large number of people they deem to have recovered each day.

 

[teuchter]

Oh you were on about 20,000 because you were comparing the difference between each days total number of cases in that graph?

Dont do that, because thats total number of people they think have Covid-19 on a given day. And you cant just subtract one days number from another to get a number for new daily infections because their total number infected includes the removal of the large number of people they deem to have recovered each day.

Ah, I see. That makes sense.

 

[elbows]

Looks like there's a lot of opposition to a lockdown from won't somebody think of the economy types. The Mail has a big headline today shouting 'Don't Do It Boris', The Telegraph reports "senior Tories" urging the prime minister to "protect the economy". I think there'll be a battle in government over the coming days over what to do. We can expect every wobble in the upward line of doom to be reported as it flattening, either 'showing the tier system is working' or calling for more time to let it work. Today's Express is leading with the 'Covid Cancer Timebomb', emphasising the downsides of lockdown. I suspect we'll see more of that kind of thing. Probably some choice quotes from Barrington adjacent people. And it'll all lead to more dithering and the minimum possible being done while the death rate continues to climb.

Alternatively, when the level of noise from those quarters rises its an indicator that they realise the game is lost and that events are rendering their shit opinions irrelevant.

Speaking of the noise:

Food chain Pret a Manger has given a testy response to its founder's comments on the possibility of another national lockdown in the UK.

Julian Metcalfe, who founded Pret as well as Itsu, told the Daily Mail a tightening of nationwide restrictions would be "impossible", adding: "Society will not recover if we do it again to save a few thousand lives of very old or vulnerable people."

He said young people in Britain would face the impact of the virus for "the next 20 to 30 years" and that just because France is soon to begin a second national lockdown, "doesn't mean we have to".

Pret distanced itself from Metcalfe's words, saying on Twitter: "He has not run the business for over 10 years and we do not agree with his opinion. We at Pret strongly believe we must take steps to stop the spread of the virus and tackle the new wave of infections."

From 11:26 of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54730092

 

[editor]

Brixton this Saturday Windrush Square rally against the government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, Sat 31st Oct 2020

 

[elbows]

I support that cause but rallies and handshake logos dont seem very appropriate right now.

 

[planetgeli]

The number of patients in hospital with coronavirus in Wales has increased by nearly a quarter on last week.

Latest figures from NHS Wales show 1,110 Covid-19 patients are currently in hospital - which is more than 80% of the level at the pandemic's peak in April.

 

[bimble]

This is really good, a visual explainer of how aerosol transmission works (and likely outcomes in homes school restaurants depending on measures taken)

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

 

[Doodler]

This is really good, a visual explainer of how aerosol transmission works (and likely outcomes in homes school restaurants depending on measures taken)

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

Information like that combined the graphic skills of a modern-day Abram Games could do some good.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Looks like B’ham will be in tier 3 next week.

 

[Teaboy]

This is really good, a visual explainer of how aerosol transmission works (and likely outcomes in homes school restaurants depending on measures taken)

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

For so long now the ventilation thing has seemed so important. Its very frustrating that the government have largely not talked about it, they should have been banging on about it.

I had the misfortune to have to stay at a hotel with work the other day. At breakfast the hotel had made a real effort to have the all the windows slightly open and it felt well ventilated. Then the other guests all pitched up and the first thing they did was close all the windows. The lack of basic covid literacy is really beginning to piss me off.

 

[Teaboy]

Looks like B’ham will be in tier 3 next week.

And probably London the week after showing what a roaring success Tier 2 is.

 

[andysays]

I support that cause but rallies and handshake logos dont seem very appropriate right now.

What I find slightly concerning is that they appear to have absolutely nothing to say about the government's failure to limit infection rates, hospital admissions and deaths.

 

[planetgeli]

For so long now the ventilation thing has seemed so important. Its very frustrating that the government have largely not talked about it, they should have been banging on about it.

I've said it before but it's worth criticizing twice. The Welsh government's back-to-school guidance in September, a 51 page report that included 3 pages on register codes for absentee pupils, spent a lot of time denigrating the use of face masks and JUST ONE LINE on the importance (lack of in their case) of ventilation.

They spent all summer preparing that guidance.

 

[teuchter]

For so long now the ventilation thing has seemed so important. Its very frustrating that the government have largely not talked about it, they should have been banging on about it.

I had the misfortune to have to stay at a hotel with work the other day. At breakfast the hotel had made a real effort to have the all the windows slightly open and it felt well ventilated. Then the other guests all pitched up and the first thing they did was close all the windows. The lack of basic covid literacy is really beginning to piss me off.

Also, people on trains who not only have their masks on their chins but are jabbering away loudly on trivial phone conversations.

And the stupid face shields which likely are as good as nothing.

 

[elbows]

I expect this will get picked up by the media more and I dont know what misleading stories will be spun out of it:

2h ago 11:16

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries, including 80% in the UK, the Financial Times (paywall) reports.

An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

How about it raising questions about whether summer holiday etc travel should have been allowed at all?

I expect this is the paper in question: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf

It includes detail that demonstrates that there is one thing the UK does well compared to many other countries, for a change. We do lots and lots of genome sequencing of this virus. But much care needs to be taken not to misinterpret the results.

 

[two sheds]

This is really good, a visual explainer of how aerosol transmission works (and likely outcomes in homes school restaurants depending on measures taken)

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

That's really good, thanks. Among other things it's cleared up half an idea that has hung around for me from the beginning, on 'superspreaders' and '20% of people being responsible for 80% of cases'.

It's less to do with how infectious the person is (although that presumably does influence it, particularly if they're sneezing, or at the other end of the scale if they've only just themselves been infected or have nearly recovered). It's the situation people find themselves in - described as a superspreader scenario in that piece.

 

[elbows]

And the stupid face shields which likely are as good as nothing.

I would expect face shields to have a role in reducing infection via the eyeballs, a different job to that of masks. It is inappropriate to use them instead of masks, and there hasnt been enough education about that.

 

[Teaboy]

I expect this will get picked up by the media more and I dont know what misleading stories will be spun out of it:

2h ago 11:16



How about it raising questions about whether summer holiday etc travel should have been allowed at all?

Abso-fucking-lutely!

 

[miss direct]

Looks like B’ham will be in tier 3 next week.

Welcome to the club, an exclusive one in which almost every pub is shut and there's nothing to do after 4:30pm.

 

[LDC]

I would expect face shields to have a role in reducing infection via the eyeballs, a different job to that of masks. It is inappropriate to use them instead of masks, and there hasnt been enough education about that.

Especially when loads of people wear them in a ridiculous way at some 45 degree angle from their forehead. Why the fucking fuck has there not been some national public health messaging about masks, visors, and ventilation etc.? Some A level graphics or media student could probably knock up a decent animation with voice-over covering that in a few days. Fucking stunning lack of care and incompetence.

 

[bimble]

That's really good, thanks. Among other things it's cleared up half an idea that has hung around for me from the beginning, on 'superspreaders' and '20% of people being responsible for 80% of cases'.

It's less to do with how infectious the person is (although that presumably does influence it, particularly if they're sneezing, or at the other end of the scale if they've only just themselves been infected or have nearly recovered). It's the situation people find themselves in - described as a superspreader scenario in that piece.

oh yeah, it does help explain that too.
For people like me visual explanations like that are really helpful, i think just seeing that will actually help me to move away from unsafe situations, ask people to open a window and put a jumper on even. I don't know whether the gov is doing tv public info broadcasts but there definitely should be more of this sort of easy to grasp visual information.

 

[editor]

 

[klang]

There are easier ways to break the rules if people feel the need to do so. They could just have their family around and not boast about it. Meanwhile the virus keeps spreading.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

For so long now the ventilation thing has seemed so important. Its very frustrating that the government have largely not talked about it, they should have been banging on about it.

I had the misfortune to have to stay at a hotel with work the other day. At breakfast the hotel had made a real effort to have the all the windows slightly open and it felt well ventilated. Then the other guests all pitched up and the first thing they did was close all the windows. The lack of basic covid literacy is really beginning to piss me off.

We have mechanical ventilation at work, and every single day the first person in, switches on the 'heating & circulating' button, but not the 'fresh air intake' one.

(in mitigation, the buttons have fairly incomprehensible symbols, but their significance has actually been explained to us).

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another 280 deaths reported today, up from 189 last Thur.

23, 065 new cases, and 10, 308 patients in hospital - more than 50% at the peak.

Grim.

 

[two sheds]

We have mechanical ventilation at work, and every single day the first person in, switches on the 'heating & circulating' button, but not the 'fresh air intake' one.

(in mitigation, the buttons have fairly incomprehensible symbols, but their significance has actually been explained to us).

Worth doing a sticker with "Press THIS one please, it brings in fresh air"?

At the risk of being added to the annoying office e-mail thread.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Worth doing a sticker with "Press THIS one please, it brings in fresh air"?

At the risk of being added to the annoying office e-mail thread.

I really should, shouldn't I - I usually just switch it on when I get in, if I remember

 

[editor]

I support that cause but rallies and handshake logos dont seem very appropriate right now.

There's oodles of space in Windrush Square.

 

[StoneRoad]

We have mechanical ventilation at work, and every single day the first person in, switches on the 'heating & circulating' button, but not the 'fresh air intake' one.

(in mitigation, the buttons have fairly incomprehensible symbols, but their significance has actually been explained to us).

I used to work in a building which could be sealed up. We tried it a few times, to see if anyone noticed ... what they did notice was the smell of fresh air when we re-opened the ventilation system to admit fresh air ...

 

[elbows]