Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[komodo]

Isn’t the talk of a future ‘lampshade’ graph rather than a hump. I.E numbers go up ( to something less than the spring peak) and stay up over the winter....

 

[Roadkill]

I have seen the possibility of a tier 4 being introduced being reported. Don't know if it has come from government or just some journalist talking shit.

It'll probably have to happen at some point. It was obvious from the moment they announced the tiered system that tier 3 doesn't go far enough. So there'll have to be more changes, probably announced at short notice, which will just create more confusion and resentment, and higher levels of non-compliance. It's criminal incompetence.

 

[elbows]

Isn’t the talk of a future ‘lampshade’ graph rather than a hump. I.E numbers go up ( to something less than the spring peak) and stay up over the winter....

Thats one of the possibilities.

I dont have a prediction because it depends what measures are taken in future and how the epidemic waves evolve in different regions.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Covid rules: Confusion as social clubs serve alcohol in tier 3 areas

But government says social clubs cannot sell alcohol on site unless served with a substantial meal.

www.bbc.co.uk

Mill Hill Working Men's Club in Blackburn posted on Facebook that it is planning to reopen on Friday, prompting some to celebrate and others to condemn the move.

Blackburn with Darwen has the highest rate of new cases of Covid-19 in England, with 1,176 new cases recorded in the seven days to October 23 - the equivalent of 785.6 cases per 100,000 people.

Fucking dickheads.

 

[Spandex]

Where the figures go next and what the graphs will look like depends on what action is taken. Most of the hospital admission and death figures at the moment will be people who caught the virus two or three weeks ago. Any effects from the new tier restrictions introduced a fortnight ago will only start to show up from now. I don't think anyone expects them to bring R below 1 and cause the numbers to decrease, but the question is if and how much they'll cause the line to stop going up. Probably a bit, and not just from the restrictions but also people in high risk areas changing their behavior regardless of what the government says. Assuming death figures continue to rise the government will have to do something eventually: introduce a tier 4 or a circuit breaker or a national lockdown or whatever they manage to agree amongst themselves. And that should bring the line down a bit more.

The problem with the current measures slowing the increase without stopping it is there isn't that oh my fucking god pressure on the government that caused them to take decisive action when there was the massive spike in March. And were past the point where something effective should happen to stop the second wave killing another huge number of people.

 

[Supine]

30k cases a day or 1000 deaths a day is where I'm thinking the pressure will be impossible for the Gov to avoid full lockdown. Too late in my books.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

30k cases a day or 1000 deaths a day is where I'm thinking the pressure will be impossible for the Gov to avoid full lockdown. Too late in my books.

Those are quite different, though. We could conceivably reach 30k cases a day next week. We're still nowhere near 1000 deaths a day. To reach that, you'd first need to have had a period of perhaps 80k new cases a day.

 

[Supine]

Those are quite different, though. We could easily reach 30k cases a day next week. We're still nowhere near 1000 deaths a day. To reach that, you'd first need to have had a period of perhaps 80k new cases a day.

I meant one or the other not both at the same time. One of the stats will cause lockdown.

 

[Wilf]

Hey, hey, LBJ BJ, how many kids oldies did you kill today?

 

[Wilf]

In terms of when will they act, in a way they are not under that much pressure. Of course they are facing major pressures in the sense of this being a deadly disease, 'balancing' that with jobs/accumulation (take your pick). But whilst the government are under scrutiny and a generic 'pressure', I wouldn't characterise it as significant political pressure. Labour are no more than drawing in the polls and we are 4 years from an election. However much anger there is about specific fuck ups, the desire that they act decisively comes up against that amorphous world weariness that is out there. People want a lockdown... people want their jobs... people want a social life. That doesn't add up to real pressure to do x. So they'll bumble on and even more will die that need be the case. Everything is shit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I meant one or the other not both at the same time. One of the stats will cause lockdown.

Don't think I agree. We really are quite likely to hit 30k cases next week. I don't think we'll lock down next week. There will be processes gone through first. Not saying that's right or sensible, just that that is what I expect to happen.

 

[Supine]

Don't think I agree. We really are quite likely to hit 30k cases next week. I don't think we'll lock down next week. There will be processes gone through first. Not saying that's right or sensible, just that that is what I expect to happen.

Any thoughts as to what would tip them over? I was just reading about the French lockdown and reckon that can only add pressure on Boris. If he wasn't so focused on fucking us over with brexit he might have taken action sooner.

 

[Yossarian]

Hey, hey, LBJ BJ, how many kids oldies did you kill today?

Hey, hey, Boris Blue, shame the virus didn't kill you too.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Any thoughts as to what would tip them over? I was just reading about the French lockdown and reckon that can only add pressure on Boris. If he wasn't so focused on fucking us over with brexit he might have taken action sooner.

France is locking down two weeks after first hitting 30k cases a day. They went through a series of measures first - curfew etc.

I may be wrong. But the UK and France have acted in similar ways, even if their specific measures have been different. Truth is that there is zero evidence that any of the measures - rule of six, pubs closing early here; curfew, mandatory masks outside, etc, in France - has made much difference. That hasn't stopped them from going through these processes.

France has handled the pandemic very badly as well, remember. They had their own PPE and testing scandals in the first wave, and they've been impotently reactive in this second wave, as here.

One thing that could change the calculation here would be clear evidence emerging from Wales that its lockdown has made a difference. Problem is that it will take a couple of weeks before we can really tell.

 

[Supine]

A lot of info on T&T to take in here. Pasted ready for a proper read tomorrow.

i-sense COVID Response Evaluation Dashboard

covid.i-sense.org.uk

 

[Wilf]

France is locking down two weeks after first hitting 30k cases a day. They went through a series of measures first - curfew etc.

I may be wrong. But the UK and France have acted in similar ways, even if their specific measures have been different. Truth is that there is zero evidence that any of the measures - rule of six, pubs closing early here; curfew, mandatory masks outside, etc, in France - has made much difference. That hasn't stopped them from going through these processes.

France has handled the pandemic very badly as well, remember. They had their own PPE and testing scandals in the first wave, and they've been impotently reactive in this second wave, as here.

One thing that could change the calculation here would be clear evidence emerging from Wales that its lockdown has made a difference. Problem is that it will take a couple of weeks before we can really tell.

It's pretty much beyond doubt now that we need a full lockdown, almost certainly with school closures, to even turn the tide. Find it crazy that I'm writing this when the government know this full well, but won't do the one thing needed to save lives. It's beyond even being an issue of saving profits/their mates, every route is crazily expensive.

In terms of the lack of political pressure, organised demands for a lockdown, just about the only consistent pressure is coming from scientists. So a government that hid behind science early on is now ignoring that same science. Sage should resign on mass. Might not make any difference, but its worth trying anything.

 

[William of Walworth]

One thing that could change the calculation here would be clear evidence emerging from Wales that its lockdown has made a difference. Problem is that it will take a couple of weeks before we can really tell.

Two sort-of related stories today from BBC Wales :

More deaths here :

A further 37 people have died with coronavirus, a Welsh Government briefing has been told.

However, it seems that Wales lockdown : Shops, pubs and gyms to reopen after firebreak (that is, from Monday 9th November onwards)

Non-essential shops, pubs, restaurants, cafes, gyms and leisure centres will reopen after Wales' firebreak lockdown ends, the first minister has promised.
The venues will be able to reopen on "essentially the same terms", Mark Drakeford said.
But there were issues to be resolved on what rules there should be on household gatherings and travel, added.

 

[StoneRoad]

I would not want SAGE to resign.
Instead, I think they should publish at least a regular summary of their papers and advice - and when it was given - to BJ and co.

 

[elbows]

One thing that could change the calculation here would be clear evidence emerging from Wales that its lockdown has made a difference. Problem is that it will take a couple of weeks before we can really tell.

Unlike you they dont really need further evidence that lockdown works. Or that various other measures add up to a much reduced R compared to R when people behave totally as if no pandemic is happening.

The question is only whether various versions of lockdown that are weaker than the original lockdown are enough to bring R below 1. The lockdown France announced today is weaker than the original one in some areas.

 

[elbows]

Or to add a further question to that, there is also the question of whether even a lockdown as strong as the original one (with as much compliance) will be enough to bring R below one given the other variables that are changed by it being autumn and then winter as opposed to spring.

Its not shocking for me to imagine countries ending up having to go further than last time, so I'm not going to be surprised if weaker versions dont get the job done.

 

[Wilf]

I would not want SAGE to resign.
Instead, I think they should publish at least a regular summary of their papers and advice - and when it was given - to BJ and co.

I'm not convinced it would make much difference, though it would be a spectacularly big news story. All I'm saying I'd prefer any kind of stunt/demo/pressure/divine intervention to get some action, rather than the thing will eventually trigger it: mass death.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Unlike you they dont really need further evidence that lockdown works. Or that various other measures add up to a much reduced R compared to R when people behave totally as if no pandemic is happening.

The question is only whether various versions of lockdown that are weaker than the original lockdown are enough to bring R below 1. The lockdown France announced today is weaker than the original one in some areas.

You misunderstood my post rather. I was commenting on the political decisions of this government, nothing else - demonstrable changes in Wales would change the political calculation.

It's also a bit of a false dichotomy to contrast my questioning of various measures with what would happen doing nothing at all. Both here and in France, the R number in many areas has actually gone up following the introduction of certain measures - eg rule of six here, mandatory masks in the street in France.

 

[elbows]

Well it rarely sounds like you are convinced that any measure does anything so its easy to get frustrated.

I dont know as the results from Wales will change the political equation much, other factors should have a much bigger impact. Hospital data milestones and various modelling for a start. Having said that I'm still trying to work out which daily data from Wales I will best be able to use to judge firebreaker impact. Id expect a lot of the sucess to be easier to spot if we could compare it with Wales not having a firebreaker at all, which obviously we cannot.

Same with France. New measures introduced at the same time that things are spiralling out of control are not going to prevent things looking worse for some time.

Every day there is less time with daylight

 

[elbows]

How badly they shit themselves over whats happened in France is likely to influence the politics in the days ahead. I'll be looking out for indicators about that next week, once chunks of the establishment have finished their holidays. Since the establishment here saw the half term not as a firebreaker opportunity, but the opportunity to have a break themselves as usual.

 

[frogwoman]

Are there any decent articles on what's went wrong in France? I can't really find very much on it.

 

[elbows]

There will be specific stories of failure but it will broadly be the same story as everywhere else thats getting bad, too much contact between people, too many sectors kept open, loss of seasonal advantage, and the numbers really get going after months of gradually building a base, just as exponential growth demands. Any country that failed to keep its numbers really low during summer (or suppress the number of infections later) is likely to meet the same fate this autumn & winter, especially when plenty of summer holiday seeding was done. Timing of european relaxations varied a little but was broadly similar, so the resurgence across the continent has a broadly similar timetable too.

It shouldnt be a surprise. We already got to see this stuff happening in some states of the USA months ago, especially where original measures were poor and relaxation timetables were swift. And that was without the additional factors of winter.

 

[elbows]

I could also describe things as 'If you want to keep schools, colleges and universities open then you have to go further than before with other measures, not weaker than before, in order to even hope to maintain the balance, otherwise R inevitably ends up where it needs to be to cause another wave'. Likewise the idea we can get away with weaker measures in a winter than in a spring/summer is a joke.

 

[elbows]

A small snapshot of parts of some newspaper front pages also imply that change looms. And no prizes for guessing that its the pandemic disgrace that is the fucking daily mail that is responsible for the don't do it, Boris headline.

 

[elbows]

REACT-1 has produced some eye watering numbers:

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - study

England is at a "critical stage" with infections doubling every nine days, a major analysis estimates.

www.bbc.co.uk

The study compared the latest swabs collected between 16 and 25 October with the last round of swabs, between 18 September and 5 October.
It suggests:

• The number of people infected has more than doubled since the last round, with one in every 78 people now testing positive.
• The hardest hit area is Yorkshire and the Humber, where one every 37 people has the virus, followed by the North West region.
• Three times as many people aged 55-64 are infected and twice as many over 65s.

• The pace of the epidemic has accelerated with the R number - the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to on average - increasing from 1.15 to 1.56.
• Overall, the number of people infected is doubling every nine days.
• The South East, South West, east of England and London all have an R above 2.0. London has an estimated R of 2.86.
• Cases are spiking in young people in the South West in a repeat of the pattern seen in northern England just over a month ago.
• 96,000 people are now catching the virus every day.

And quite the understatement in the BBC piece:

"If we are going to consider at some point over the winter something much more stringent it becomes a question of timing. I think these results do argue for something sooner rather than later," Prof Riley said.

 

[cupid_stunt]

REACT-1 has produced some eye watering numbers:

TBH 'eye watering numbers' is quite the understatement too, those R numbers are fucking frightening, surely with that, plus Spain declaring a 'national state of emergency', and both France & Germany following the Republic of Ireland into national lockdowns, we can't be far behind doing similiar now.