Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Pickman's model]

The headline put dread in me. I didn't really pull it apart and I really hope you are right.

i'm not sure lbj's 'nothing to see here' really works when you're talking about a virus which where it doesn't kill can damage lungs and other organs with what long-term effects we do not know. with two large-scale movements of people into confined spaces - schoolchildren and students - in the next six weeks i'd say caution was the better part of valour.

 

[Wilf]

Corbyn says government lectured him on 'herd immunity' in Spring:

Jeremy Corbyn: government lectured me about herd immunity

Former Labour leader describes idea of letting Covid spread across population as ‘eugenic’

www.theguardian.com

I'm sure they did exactly that, but what strikes me is that Corbyn is an utter wanker not saying anything publicly at the time (unless he did and I missed it of course). Presumably he thought the talks were confidential, but hiding behind that bullshit meant he missed a chance to call them out as abject liars over the herd immunity thing back in March or so.

 

[andysays]

[

Is it though? Eighteen cases in a week, eight of those in one school, two others teachers who tested positive before the schools returned, and no suggestion of in-school transmission. Tbh I wouldn't even count the two teachers as they were tested before the school had even reopened. That's merely an example of a system in place working.

At the very least I'd want to wait a week or two before making any big judgements on that - it may well be that these are cases being found because a whole new set of people is now being tested that wasn't being tested before. Is 16 in the first week a bad number?

I think eight pupils from one school being forced to self isolate the day after they returned to school is concerning.

On 12 August, eight pupils at Bannerman High School in Baillieston, Glasgow were forced to self-isolate after they tested positive for the respiratory disease.

I don't whether all pupils are being tested on or before their return, although I think that might be a good idea, as much to reassure people as anything.

But if there are significant levels of Covid19 in the pupil population which are apparently not picked up until they've returned to school and potentially infected some of their class/school mates it's difficult to argue that's not a cause for concern, even if it doesn't reflect anything beyond that one school.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think eight pupils from one school being forced to self isolate the day after they returned to school is concerning.



I don't whether all pupils are being tested on or before their return, although I think that might be a good idea, as much to reassure people as anything.

But if there are significant levels of Covid19 in the pupil population which are apparently not picked up until they've returned to school and potentially infected some of their class/school mates it's difficult to argue that's not a cause for concern, even if it doesn't reflect anything beyond that one school.

What are 'significant levels'? We know it's still around so what would be the expected level given the current estimates of population wide infection? Is 16 above, below, or about at that level? How many tests were carried out last week? Without that context, a small cluster in one school plus a handful of isolated cases doesn't mean much. It may be indicative of a system working well more than anything.

 

[andysays]

What are 'significant levels'? We know it's still around so what would be the expected level given the current estimates of population wide infection? Is 16 above, below, or about at that level? How many tests were carried out last week? Without that context, a small cluster in one school plus a handful of isolated cases doesn't mean much. It may be indicative of a system working well more than anything.

As I've said, I think eight pupils from one school being forced to self isolate the day after they returned to school is concerning, and far more concerning than eight pupils from one school being forced to self isolate because they tested positive before they returned to school.

The latter would be an indication of a system working reasonably well, at least as regards not spreading it through the return to school, though it would still leave questions about why that number of pupils in that area have tested positive.

But having to send pupils home after they've already had the chance to infect their school mates doesn't strike me as a system working well, unless you're a government minister or an apologist for one

 

[Santino]

Corbyn says government lectured him on 'herd immunity' in Spring:

Jeremy Corbyn: government lectured me about herd immunity

Former Labour leader describes idea of letting Covid spread across population as ‘eugenic’

www.theguardian.com

I'm sure they did exactly that, but what strikes me is that Corbyn is an utter wanker not saying anything publicly at the time (unless he did and I missed it of course). Presumably he thought the talks were confidential, but hiding behind that bullshit meant he missed a chance to call them out as abject liars over the herd immunity thing back in March or so.

And the British press would have reported this accurately and in good faith, and would not have branded him a traitor for revealing the information and talking Britain down.

 

[Wilf]

And the British press would have reported this accurately and in good faith, and would not have branded him a traitor for revealing the information and talking Britain down.

Undoubtedly some would have, but iirc the government was getting plenty of bad press as they went from herd immunity to a panicked lockdown in a matter of days. So if you want to look at it in those terms, it was just the right moment to break free of Chatham House Rules or whatever game they were all playing at the time. But most of all, if he now says the government admitted they were doing herd immunity and he recognised the dangers of that, he had a duty to pipe up - regardless of anticipated press reactions. Might not have made much difference in practice, but he had a duty to be on the right side of something that killed thousands needlessly.

 

[Pickman's model]

And the British press would have reported this accurately and in good faith, and would not have branded him a traitor for revealing the information and talking Britain down.

No one talks Britain down like Boris Johnson

 

[Cloo]

[

Is it though? Eighteen cases in a week, eight of those in one school, two others teachers who tested positive before the schools returned, and no suggestion of in-school transmission. Tbh I wouldn't even count the two teachers as they were tested before the school had even reopened. That's merely an example of a system in place working.

At the very least I'd want to wait a week or two before making any big judgements on that - it may well be that these are cases being found because a whole new set of people is now being tested that wasn't being tested before. Is 16 in the first week a bad number?

Is anyone expecting there not to be cases in schools?

 

[frogwoman]

I'd say 8 cases in one school is quite bad tbh.

 

[Thora]

Secondary school age children are infected/transmit it at the same rates as adults don't they? If we're getting outbreaks in factories and pubs then there will definitely be outbreaks in schools.

 

[elbows]

Well yes, I would hope that she would be saying something a bit different in private, but as you say, this kind of gaslighting, which is what it is really, does nobody any good, and frankly it makes the officials spouting the bullshit look ridiculous. Why should anyone listen to someone saying such obvious bollocks?

I'm pleased to say that at least she got some subsequent stick over the comments:

Coronavirus: Repeat tests for Covid-negative Greencore workers

A second set of tests will see if Covid-negative workers are incubating the virus, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Mrs Wightman said Public Health Northamptonshire had considered closing the Greencore factory, but after consulting the Food Standards Agency and virologists had decided the risk to the general public was "extraordinarily low".

She said Greencore "prides itself" on how it deals with infections.

Mrs Wightman has been criticised for previously saying the outbreak was "about how people behave outside of Greencore, not at work".

She had mentioned car sharing and the number of Greencore employees who lived in single properties as reasons for the outbreak.

Save our Services Northampton said she had shifted "the blame on to the workers' shoulders and let employers and the Government off the hook".

In a statement, the protest group said many workers "cannot afford their own cars or houses and would most probably face disciplinary measures, for endangering food output, if they were late to work or miss shifts because of transport difficulties".

Mrs Wightman said it was "not about apportioning blame, but about helping workers and other members of the public to understand where transmission risks lie".

 

[elbows]

Whatever we think of the Sottish school cases so far, the balancing act isnt going to be much fun.

Entire class of Glasgow schoolchildren to self-isolate after positive Covid-19 test

Pupils and teacher at St Albert's Primary, Pollokshields, sent home following positive coronavirus case.

www.scotsman.com

 

[Cloo]

Whatever we think of the Sottish school cases so far, the balancing act isnt going to be much fun.

Entire class of Glasgow schoolchildren to self-isolate after positive Covid-19 test

Pupils and teacher at St Albert's Primary, Pollokshields, sent home following positive coronavirus case.

www.scotsman.com

Oh yeah, it's gonna suck. Like I said, I think we might see more local/school level shutdowns than a national one - I think the gov is going to drive hard not to shut down schools. The most nuclear option they might be prepared to go for is, as they have suggested, to shut pubs to make it easier for schools to stay open, though i don't necessarily see it'll help that much.

 

[SpookyFrank]

That actually reads like a made-up story or at least journalistic licence has been employed. There are inconsistencies and oddness.

Init. Is she out of work, or self employed?

 

[frogwoman]

Just seen a weird post on fb by someone who claims she knows someone who died of cancer but whose family have been 'fighting for months to have Covid-19 taken off the death certificate'. This sounds like absolute bollocks to me but how do you reply to those sort of arguments? LynnDoyleCooper elbows

 

[weepiper]

Tbh if they tested positive the day after schools went back then they didn't catch it at school, did they? I think it's impossible we won't have cases in schools, but I don't think schools are less important to keep open than pubs, for example. If we can keep community transmission right down children and staff will be safer.

 

[William of Walworth]

I think the gov is going to drive hard not to shut down schools. The most nuclear option they might be prepared to go for is, as they have suggested, to shut pubs to make it easier for schools to stay open, though i don't necessarily see it'll help that much.

I'd like to throw out the question here -- would shutting the pubs (in particular!) help the situation with schools?

I'd genuinely like to see the logic of this thinking (it's been suggested a few times), and I'm honestly attempting to understand what direct connection there might be?

I'm honestly trying not to wear my 'sometimes goes to one or two pubs' hat here, but I'm failing to see the logic of specifically shutting pubs in the hope that this would protect schools.

I'm probably missing something big though? -- I'm not a parent after all

 

[iona]

I'd like to throw out the question here -- would shutting the pubs (in particular!) help the situation with schools?

I'd genuinely like to see the logic of this thinking (it's been suggested a few times), and I'm honestly attempting to understand what direct connection there might be?

I'm honestly trying not to wear my 'sometimes goes to one or two pubs' hat here, but I'm failing to see the logic of specifically shutting pubs in the hope that this would protect schools.

I'm probably missing something big though? -- I'm not a parent after all

(Aiui) It's not that they're directly connected, but both provide more opportunity for infection to spread than if they were closed. It might be that having both schools and pubs open leads to enough new cases for things to start really going to shit but having one or the other open is just about manageable, in which case you could close the pubs in order to keep schools open (or vice versa, depending on your priorities!)

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'd like to throw out the question here -- would shutting the pubs (in particular!) help the situation with schools?

I'd genuinely like to see the logic of this thinking (it's been suggested a few times), and I'm honestly attempting to understand what direct connection there might be?

It's more an indirect connection, if it starts spreading in both pubs & schools it's likely to take the infection rate, the 'R' number, above 1, i.e. each person infects more than 1 other person, and then the number of cases increases exponentially, so it snowballs again. Therefore it could be a choice of keeping only one or other open, in order to keep the 'R' number down.

The current 'R' number across the UK is estimated at between 0.8 - 1, so not much wiggle room.

ETA - beaten to it by iona

 

[cupid_stunt]

William of Walworth, there's a big debate going on about Oldham, and if it should be put into a proper lockdown again, closing non-essential shops, businesses and pubs, but according to several reports I've read, the main spread is in the community, between different households, and not many, if any, new cases are actually being traced back to the likes of pubs.

The closure of bars, restaurants and shops would make no “measurable difference” to the transmission of the virus in Oldham, Fielding [leader of Olham council] said, because the vast majority of new cases were spreading between households. “I don’t think it would be based on science or based on evidence if we were to be pushed into a local lockdown.”

LINK

There're fears that if they go into lockdown it will fuel racism, as already the blame game is happening between different communities.

Council leader Sean Fielding said that a major concern about lockdown measures being brought in was around its impact on ‘social cohesion’.

“There are examples of people in communities who are pointing the finger of blame at other communities, using that to justify their own non-compliance with the restrictions,” he added.

“We’ve had house parties in various parts of the borough. We’re taking enforcement against several businesses that aren’t in the central Oldham areas.

“We have got a particularly high incidence of cases in central Oldham areas, and those are areas where there are more people from the south Asian community.

“However also in those communities you have high levels of poverty, high levels of cramped and overcrowded housing, high levels of people that work in public facing occupations that never shut down because they were essential workers. “To label it as an ethnicity issue is quite crude and not accurate, there are many more underlying factors.”

He said that he had received a ‘postbag’ of letters about a possible lockdown containing ‘really unpleasant language’. “Often in that correspondence I receive, people are using words that I thought had gone out of fashion in the 70s to describe people of other ethnic backgrounds,” he said.

“I do have concerns that if we were to have a local lockdown it would fuel even greater tensions in the town.

Council leader warns Oldham lockdown would 'inflame community tensions'

It is understood a decision will be made by Thursday on whether stricter measures are required to tackle the infection rate

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[William of Walworth]

I understand both your logics, iona and cupid_stunt -- thanks.

Will get back to this subject -- but dare I (provocatively?) question whether shops and parents' workplaces, etc., etc., might also play a role here?

Honestly not on a windup -- but I was genuinely questioning why pubs had been singled out ...

More when not heading to work!

 

[William of Walworth]

No time to get stuck into this now. Big questions/discussions involved.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I understand both your logics, iona and cupid_stunt -- thanks.

Will get back to this subject -- but dare I (provocatively?) question whether shops and parents' workplaces, etc., etc., might also play a role here?

Honestly not on a windup -- but I was genuinely questioning why pubs had been singled out ...

More when not heading to work!

It's not really our logic, it came from Chris Whitty, when explaining the limits of opening up, although I don't think he actually mentioned pubs, certainly not in the actual briefing I watched.

England's chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, warned the UK may have hit its limits on easing restrictions.

Appearing alongside the prime minister at a special Downing Street briefing, Prof Whitty said the "idea that we can open up everything and keep the virus under control" is wrong.

Asked whether it was safe for England's schools to fully reopen to all pupils in the autumn, he said it was a "difficult balancing act" but "we have probably reached near the limit, or the limits, of what we can do in terms of opening up society."

BBC LINK

IIRC the pubs came up in a question, which could have been to Whitty or a Minster, who was asked if it could be a question of closing pubs in order to keep schools open, and the reply was 'possibly'.

 

[Cloo]

I'd like to throw out the question here -- would shutting the pubs (in particular!) help the situation with schools?

I'd genuinely like to see the logic of this thinking (it's been suggested a few times), and I'm honestly attempting to understand what direct connection there might be?

I'm honestly trying not to wear my 'sometimes goes to one or two pubs' hat here, but I'm failing to see the logic of specifically shutting pubs in the hope that this would protect schools.

I'm probably missing something big though? -- I'm not a parent after all

I don't see the logic of it either - I think it's mostly the government trying to think of something it can be seen to be doing to 'help schools stay open', given the flack they got for opening them before schools (though tbf, by the time they opened them there was only 3 weeks of term left in England so I actually don't think it was some ideological message that pubs were more important than education)

 

[LDC]

Just seen a weird post on fb by someone who claims she knows someone who died of cancer but whose family have been 'fighting for months to have Covid-19 taken off the death certificate'. This sounds like absolute bollocks to me but how do you reply to those sort of arguments? LynnDoyleCooper elbows

Conspiracy nonsense. And like all of that pretty impossible to directly argue against and win people over on. It's so often not them, but someone they know. Does it come with a history of other conspiracy stuff around Covid 19 frogwoman ?

 

[frogwoman]

I don't know her but it seems so. Apparently the real death count shows covid deaths have been exaggerated by 82%? And that since March 'nobody is allowed to die of cancer or a heart attack'

My mum's friend's relatives in South Africa have also been 'fighting to get Covid-19 taken off the death certificate' to the point of abusing doctors because they are religious fundamentalists and were just carrying on as normal, refusing to believe they had it despite a family member dying

Conspiracy nonsense. And like all of that pretty impossible to directly argue against and win people over on. It's so often not them, but someone they know. Does it come with a history of other conspiracy stuff around Covid 19 frogwoman ?

 

[frogwoman]

Conspiracy nonsense. And like all of that pretty impossible to directly argue against and win people over on. It's so often not them, but someone they know. Does it come with a history of other conspiracy stuff around Covid 19 frogwoman ?

Yeah and the problem is if you argue that it couldn't have happened you seem like a bit of a cunt.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't know her but it seems so. Apparently the real death count shows covid deaths have been exaggerated by 82%? And that since March 'nobody is allowed to die of cancer or a heart attack'

As far as the UK is concerned, this is absolute bollocks, just look at the ONS data for registered deaths, and the number of excess deaths this year.

If these approx. 50,000 extra deaths, compared to the 5-year average, are not down to Covid, WTF has been killing all these people?

 

[frogwoman]

As far as the UK is concerned, this is absolute bollocks, just look at the ONS data for registered deaths, and the number of excess deaths this year.

If these approx. 50,000 extra deaths, compared to the 5-year average, are not down to Covid, WTF has been killing all these people?

Totally agree, but her argument (and I've seen this elsewhere tbh) is that the lockdown itself has been killing people, leading to more suicides etc and these deaths are being ascribed to covid, or people are 'dying of the underlying conditions' and covid is being blamed