Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cloo]

Interesting thing about local stats is that now, unlike in March, you see them rising, then falling back again now - so a rise to 24 new cases one week doesn't become 48 the next week, it might drop back to 8

 

[Hyperdark]

There has been no significant change in the testing methodology over the past few weeks, yet the number of cases per day continues to rise slowly. We are now seeing roughly 1,050 new cases per day, and at the start of August, when the same testing methodology was in place, and the same number of tests per day were being conducted, we were seeing roughly 750 new cases per day. That's an increase of about 40% in new case numbers over a period of about 3 weeks.

...and its still summer, I'm very worried at what I see in my town centre, the majority are behaving as if nothing has happened.
I live in a small/medium sized town and don't personaly know anyone who has died, this gives a warm fuzzy feeling untill I looked at the figures and found out that up until the end of june 22 people living less than a mile from me have died from Covid19 (its semi rural not a very crowded place)

 

[cupid_stunt]

There has been no significant change in the testing methodology over the past few weeks...

I disagree, there's been a big increase in targeted testing in areas of major concern, which could explain the increase in new cases across the UK, it's too early for doom & gloom, we need a few more weeks, before the picture becomes clearer.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I think people largely have stopped caring. They mainly wear masks where they mainly should but social distancing is piss poor. My college is on top of it - had my COVID back to work induction today and it was comprehensive - but I'm not looking forward to the students coming back really.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think people largely have stopped caring. They mainly wear masks where they mainly should but social distancing is piss poor.

Not around here, I mentioned the other day that I was impressed that people even waiting to cross a level crossing, were all maintaining social distancing.

 

[Hyperdark]

I disagree, there's been a big increase in targeted testing in areas of major concern, which could explain the increase in new cases across the UK, it's too early for doom & gloom, we need a few more weeks, before the picture becomes clearer.

I have heard that also, but can find no evidence it is true.

I have just watched Mr Hancock on BBC Breakfast, the man simply denies any facts that don't fit the message with phrases like "I don' t recognise those figures".
The man is a pathological liar

 

[Steel Icarus]

Not around here, I mentioned the other day that I was impressed that people even waiting to cross a level crossing, were all maintaining social distancing.

Tell you what, there is no way when students come back to college that I'm going maskless outside of my office. Whatever good it does or doesn't do. I feel like I need to do something. I'm a bit surprised it isn't college policy - the H&S offucer who did my COVID induction yesterday hinted strongly she would like to see it but "it's not the law". Students will be encouraged to wear a mask but should not be challenged if they don't.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I have heard that also, but can find no evidence it is true.

The areas that have seen local lockdowns have also had extra drive-in and walk-in test centres set-up, and they are even carrying our door-to-door testing in specific areas.

Here's just couple of examples...

Door-to-door coronavirus testing is being carried out in Leicester - the first such move in the UK.

NHS teams and volunteers are in affected areas of the city dropping off test kits for people even if they do not have symptoms.

Since the local lockdown began, eight fixed test centres have opened across the city where up to 2,000 tests have been carried out daily.

Leicester lockdown: Door-to-door Covid-19 tests run for first time

Leicester's mayor said increased testing in this way would help bring down the infection rate.

www.bbc.co.uk

One of the new measures being brought in to help stem the tide of infections is door-to-door testing in certain areas that have already seen an uplift in cases.

However for all residents of the borough there is already a full testing centre in Oldham town centre at the Southgate Street car park, behind Oldham Library. Bosses say there is ‘good availability’ at this site, and home testing kits are also available for residents.

And this week there will be a military testing unit in residence in Shaw from Tuesday to Thursday at the Marketplace/Westway car park.

New coronavirus testing centre opens in Oldham after spike of cases

It will offer ‘walk-through testing’ so residents don’t need to be in a vehicle to access the site

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[hash tag]

First I saw reports of people making bookings and not showing now I see several reports like this. Arent some people just shitty.

Eat out scheme causing 'hostility towards staff'

Some restaurants and pubs are opting out of the scheme because of the stress being put on staff.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

I disagree, there's been a big increase in targeted testing in areas of major concern, which could explain the increase in new cases across the UK, it's too early for doom & gloom, we need a few more weeks, before the picture becomes clearer.

Often these days when I find myself saying we need a few more weeks, the picture isnt much clearer once those weeks have passed.

My usual stock answers in this area are that this is why I wish I had access to sewage-based data. And that I wish the random population survey sampling (that the ONS reports on once a week) was being done at greater scale. We heard more about the sewage stuff recently, although I still have no sense of when data from it will be shared publicly. And now I see they have a proper aim to increase the number of people who are tested for the random population survey each week:

Coronavirus: UK to ramp up coronavirus monitoring programme

More swabbing will reveal how many people in the general population are infected at any given time.

www.bbc.co.uk

(The population survey is also the source of comments the other week about how case numbers seemed to be 'levelling off' after a rise.)

 

[elbows]

For some strange reason I am not reassured.

As someone who had spent the majority of her business career in the retail industry, starting out at Kingfisher and Thomas Cook before moving to Sainsbury's and Tesco, she was seen as being well placed to help drive long-term transformation and integration while maintaining patient service and safety levels.

Baroness Harding's grandfather, Field Marshal John Harding, commanded the famous Army division the Desert Rats during World War Two. Her father was also an Army officer, as well as a hereditary peer.

Dido Harding's meteoric rise from telecoms to test and trace, and beyond

Who is the former businesswoman and jockey chosen to head the UK's new public health agency?

www.bbc.co.uk

Drifting off-topic, hmm John Harding...

Harding took strict measures to improve the security situation in Cyprus, EOKA having declared an armed struggle against the British on 1 April 1955. To this end, Harding instituted a number of unprecedented measures including curfews, closures of schools, the opening of concentration camps, the indefinite detention of suspects without trial and the imposition of the death penalty for offences such as carrying weapons, incendiary devices or any material that could be used in a bomb. A number of such executions took place often in controversial circumstances (e.g. Michalis Karaolis) leading to resentment, in Cyprus, the United Kingdom and in other countries

Facing growing criticism in the United Kingdom about the methods he used and their lack of effectiveness, Sir John Harding resigned as Governor of Cyprus on 22 October 1957 and was replaced by Sir Hugh Foot.[48]

John Harding, 1st Baron Harding of Petherton - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The areas that have seen local lockdowns have also had extra drive-in and walk-in test centres set-up, and they are even carrying our door-to-door testing in specific areas.

Here's just couple of examples...

The wider stats back up this idea. Three points in particular.

The Zoe Covid study has found infection levels to be falling again in the last couple of weeks, back down to the early-July low after a slight increase.

Numbers in hospital with C19 continue to fall.

And all the increase in the daily new cases figure is due to increases in Pillar 2, with Pillar 1 staying low. This article is a couple of weeks old, but explains what this means regarding the rises in the headline figure.

COVID cases in England aren’t rising: here’s why - CEBM

 

[Teaboy]

For some strange reason I am not reassured.

Thomas Cook = bust. Kingfisher have had years of financial problems and may not be far behind. Tesco had a massive accounting scandal when they had been found out to be cooking the books for a number of years, what did she know?

Working fro companies that actually turn a profit is so last decade.

 

[elbows]

And all the increase in the daily new cases figure is due to increases in Pillar 2, with Pillar 1 staying low. This article is a couple of weeks old, but explains what this means regarding the rises in the headline figure.

COVID cases in England aren’t rising: here’s why - CEBM

For me Pillar 1 data also shows what I would expect to see if we have developed far more of a grip on hospital transmission of the virus now.

Even though my 'holiday' from posting about the pandemic still involved making some posts, it now seems clear that I've been able to extend this well beyond June, there isnt much in the UK data for July or August so far that would require me to make endless gloomy posts. Most of the gloom has come from the picture in various other countries, and its still relatively early days in plenty of those places too.

I will be very pleased indeed if it turns out that I am able to say the same for September-November. It seems reasonable to anticipate that by some stage in October I will be describing a quite different picture to the one seen in June-August, one where I can fully revert to my default woe mode. But other possibilities exist too and I dont intend to jump the gun.

 

[two sheds]

I wish I had access to sewage-based data

There's a statement you don't often see. You could try the exam grades as a starter though

 

[Cloo]

I think I feel like you elbows - the data at the moment is encouraging, but that may well be due to seasonal mitigation factors rather than treatment or general tailing off of the virus.

All the same, I do begin to wonder whether we're not going to see another national school shutdown and if it might move to local area/school level closures over autumn and winter. I also start to think that saying people mustn't go into other households at all when things are bad seems over the top, given even at peak the vast majority of people won't have it (and many of those who do will be symptomatic). It seems sensible enough to me to say as official guidance 'You can see one other household indoors every fortnight', which would give you time to see if you or the other household develop anything before you go to see anyone else at close quarters. It would give guidance to the unsure who want to be sensible... and frankly there's a consitutency of people who will ignore any advice regardless of what you say. Christmas is going to be a real test of all this, of course.

 

[elbows]

Scotland provides early clues as to what may lie ahead regarding schools:

Coronavirus in Scottish schools: the primary and secondary schools in Scotland where there are confirmed cases of Covid-19

Schools in Aberdeenshire, Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Inverness and Renfrewshire have all confirmed coronavirus cases

www.scotsman.com

 

[SpookyFrank]

Probably needs a new thread really. PHE gone to be replaced by a body overseen by Dido Harding, a Tory peer and who has a husband on a think thank that called for the NHS to be scrapped. FFS.

This is classic 'shock doctrine' stuff. The choice of a tory blueblood with no relevant experience and direct links to anti-NHS interests is all part of the plan. The focus will be on that and not on the decision to scrap a public health organisation in the middle of the biggest public health crisis in a century. And all while everyone's heads are still spinning from the exam results clusterfuck. Instead of waiting for events to bury bad news for them, they're now just creating a bad news landslide on purpose.

 

[frogwoman]

It's deliberate culture war / 'trigger the lefties' nonsense

 

[SpookyFrank]

It's deliberate culture war / 'trigger the lefties' nonsense

The Dido Harding thing, absolutely. Chief executives don't actually do anything, which is why they can skip merrily from travel agencies to supermarkets to quangos without so much as a job interview and why their careers aren't noticably affected by success or failure.

 

[Brainaddict]

Has this been posted yet? Corbyn saying that officials tried to push the idea of herd immunity on him: WATCH: Jeremy Corbyn briefed on herd immunity by government during early days of coronavirus outbreak

 

[editor]

Oh well.

'My world came crashing down': how 2020 took me from a six-figure salary to universal credit

When I was made redundant, I thought I would easily get another great job. Then the pandemic hit …

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh well.

'My world came crashing down': how 2020 took me from a six-figure salary to universal credit

When I was made redundant, I thought I would easily get another great job. Then the pandemic hit …

www.theguardian.com

tbh i lost a lot of sympathy after i saw a) she worked in hr, and b) she was reconsidering how she'd treated people she'd dealt with while working in hr, which suggested she hadn't been wholly nice to them.

 

[nagapie]

Scotland provides early clues as to what may lie ahead regarding schools:

Coronavirus in Scottish schools: the primary and secondary schools in Scotland where there are confirmed cases of Covid-19

Schools in Aberdeenshire, Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Inverness and Renfrewshire have all confirmed coronavirus cases

www.scotsman.com

Sounds like an absolute headfuck

 

[Pickman's model]

Scotland provides early clues as to what may lie ahead regarding schools:

Coronavirus in Scottish schools: the primary and secondary schools in Scotland where there are confirmed cases of Covid-19

Schools in Aberdeenshire, Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Inverness and Renfrewshire have all confirmed coronavirus cases

www.scotsman.com

we're supposed to be heading back into work again in about a month's time. which seemed remarkably optimistic anyway but seems ludicrously rose-tinted now. and that's before we let any of your actual students into the library, which i doubt will happen before next year.

 

[Teaboy]

Oh well.

'My world came crashing down': how 2020 took me from a six-figure salary to universal credit

When I was made redundant, I thought I would easily get another great job. Then the pandemic hit …

www.theguardian.com

That actually reads like a made-up story or at least journalistic licence has been employed. There are inconsistencies and oddness.

 

[maomao]

tbh i lost a lot of sympathy after i saw a) she worked in hr, and b) she was reconsidering how she'd treated people she'd dealt with while working in hr, which suggested she hadn't been wholly nice to them.

I lost all mine about halfway through the headline.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

[

Sounds like an absolute headfuck

Is it though? Eighteen cases in a week, eight of those in one school, two others teachers who tested positive before the schools returned, and no suggestion of in-school transmission. Tbh I wouldn't even count the two teachers as they were tested before the school had even reopened. That's merely an example of a system in place working.

At the very least I'd want to wait a week or two before making any big judgements on that - it may well be that these are cases being found because a whole new set of people is now being tested that wasn't being tested before. Is 16 in the first week a bad number?

 

[nagapie]

Is it though? Eighteen cases in a week, eight of those in one school, two others teachers who tested positive before the schools returned, and no suggestion of in-school transmission. Tbh I wouldn't even count the two teachers as they were tested before the school had even reopened. That's merely an example of a system in place working.

At the very least I'd want to wait a week or two before making any big judgements on that - it may well be that these are cases being found because a whole new set of people is now being tested that wasn't being tested before. Is 16 in the first week a bad number?

The headline put dread in me. I didn't really pull it apart and I really hope you are right.

 

[Pickman's model]

[

Is it though? Eighteen cases in a week, eight of those in one school, two others teachers who tested positive before the schools returned, and no suggestion of in-school transmission. Tbh I wouldn't even count the two teachers as they were tested before the school had even reopened. That's merely an example of a system in place working.

At the very least I'd want to wait a week or two before making any big judgements on that - it may well be that these are cases being found because a whole new set of people is now being tested that wasn't being tested before. Is 16 in the first week a bad number?

this sounds like the sort of thing i'd expect from matt hancock of westminster.