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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I think holidays are very important to take a break from work, relax and do something different. I don’t think holidays overseas are sensible right now but I do understand why some have gone and assume that they know the risks.

I agree.
 
Just been into an emergency work meeting.

Company are concerned about lockdown easing and people’s complacency in the uk. For the future we are doubling down on covid restrictions, working from home where possible for the foreseeable and being asked to challenge any unsafe behaviours on site, even if it’s from the management team.

That’s how it should be done :thumbs:
 
I think holidays are very important to take a break from work, relax and do something different. I don’t think holidays overseas are sensible right now but I do understand why some have gone and assume that they know the risks.
I agree, but I'm not so sure about "they know the risks" - if you listen to most people making a (non-professional) assessment of risk, a lot of it boils down to a fairly binary "Argh, no" vs "Feh, it'll be FINE". My guess is that for a lot of people making (or assessing) holiday plans, the presumption will be in favour of continuing with the original plan, ie. going.

Of course, if the government wanted to back up its "let's get back to normal" message with, you know, actual action, they'd have done more to indemnify people against the financial implications of having to quarantine beyond suggesting that they take annual leave or rely on the iniquitous UC system.

FWIW, I wouldn't even be making plans to go abroad on holiday right now, and I do find it remarkable (if not surprising) that people are.
 
It's not just France though is it, it's anybody who drives through France to get to a port. So my friends in Italy, who chose to drive not fly, also have to quarantine.
Surely they could just drive right through without stopping, ok maybe for petrol and not talk to anyone, or something? You know, like how Cummings crossed the country with a symptomatic person in the car.
 
Surely they could just drive right through without stopping, ok maybe for petrol and not talk to anyone, or something? You know, like how Cummings crossed the country with a symptomatic person in the car.

They almost certainly could do that, it'd be a bit shit though and not (AFAIK) following the rules. I really don't like this let's find loopholes and contradictions we can exploit attitude among some people. I understand the reasons why it's there, but I do think it's a bit selfish and quite entitled.

For some kind of anarchist I'm a terrible stickler for the rules. :facepalm:
 
They almost certainly could do that, it'd be a bit shit though and not (AFAIK) following the rules. I really don't like this let's find loopholes and contradictions we can exploit attitude among some people. I understand the reasons why it's there, but I do think it's a bit selfish and quite entitled.
Yes. I was definitely suggesting that as an actual course of action.
 
I think holidays are very important to take a break from work, relax and do something different. I don’t think holidays overseas are sensible right now but I do understand why some have gone and assume that they know the risks.
Yeah, I meant overseas. Holidays are important. I'm having one very soon but not leaving the country.
 
I havent checked the dates thoroughly but that was weeks ago so his quarantine period probably ended already. He was certainly at the scene of the train crash recently.


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He was on Radio 4 this morning saying he quarentined and it ended then he went straight to Scotland.
 
So two weeks ago we were at "the outer edge of what we can do and therefore choices are going to be made" according to Whitty. There was talk of closing pubs so that schools can reopen. From tomorrow casinos, soft play and indoor theatre, live music and performance venues can reopen.

Has the situation changed significantly in the last fortnight or is it just that choices have been made?

It remains an awkward stage of the pandemic where I dont think they've quite figured out whether the pictures shown by various different parts of the surveillance system are spot on, and how far they can actually go with various things. Its also possible that they thought doing some of the relaxing at the same time they were imposing restrictions on a big chunk of the north west wasnt the best idea, although that didnt stop them reopening shops around the same time Leicester had its 'local lockdown' imposed.

And the tone from the likes of Whitty has always been different to Johnson, eg I think Whitty made it fairly obvious that reopening the pubs made him nervous. And even someone like Johnson who wants to press on is very occasionally going to take the opportunity to look like he is taking things seriously and not being reckless.

As for what could actually have changed in recent weeks, I have to scrape around to find things. Its possible they were waiting to see if the increased cases detected turned into anything that would show up in hospital and death data. And one part of our surveillance system, the general home population sampling where they test a bunch of people every week, most recently leads to language in ONS reports about it such as:

There is evidence that the incidence rate for England has increased in the most recent weeks following a low point in June and appears to have now levelled off.

Levelled off being the key phrase there.

From Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot - Office for National Statistics

Since its a balancing act I suppose its also possible that any data they have that leads to more confidence in the track & trace system, or things like greater compliance with mask-wearing, would also affect how they see the balance and what they think they can get away with.

As for schools and what they do to the balancing act, I doubt we have heard the last of that.
 
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I havent checked the dates thoroughly but that was weeks ago so his quarantine period probably ended already. He was certainly at the scene of the train crash recently.


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Which is interesting, given transport is, I believe, a devolved issue.
 
The media should not have stopped going on about care homes. I mentioned this in regards last weeks surveillance reports but this weeks report is more explicit about the care home stuff.

The majority of COVID-19 surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity remained stable at a national level during week 32. Case detections in England increased slightly from 5,019 in week 31 to 5,401 in week 32. Increases in activity were noted in the North West, Yorkshire and Humber and the East Midlands. At a local authority level, incidence was highest in Oldham, followed by Blackburn with Darwen which continues to decrease. Case detections remain highest in adults aged 85 and over and cases in this age group have increased in recent weeks, which may be related to ongoing care homes incidents.

Screenshot 2020-08-14 at 14.34.51.png

 
That report also has a handy graph in relation to the changing measurement of deaths, relating to number of days since the person who died tested positive.

Screenshot 2020-08-14 at 14.40.05.png
 
The media should not have stopped going on about care homes.
Some of that is presumably just correlation, though, no? Older people are affected more than younger; older people are more likely to live in care homes; ergo instances of Covid in care homes are disproportionately high compared to other housing/businesses.
 
But when the media stop talking about them it creates the impression that outbreaks involving care homes have ceased. Likewise in the last month or so there are plenty of media reports that make it sound like the people currently testing positive are mostly young, and thats not right either. Whats actually more likely to have been seen is bigger rises in younger people, but the 85+ category still seem to have the most confirmed cases whenever I've looked at the weekly ONS report, and some rises in the older group also recently.

I mention these things mostly to try to keep the full picture and detail in view, not to make any dramatic claims. Because the current rate of death does not resemble the terrible levels seen earlier in the year and the numbers of people testing positive are also not comparable to that earlier dreadful phase, so I dont think there is a dramatic story to tell. The media are fickle though, we saw them get bored with lockdown and ready to move on to the next set of pandemic stories well before the masses reached the same stage of fatigue. Same with PPE.
 

I presume there will be some jostling for places on UK bound ferries tomorrow....

Ferries, planes and trains stuffed as full as they can be with people coming back from a place with increasing levels of infection. Can’t possibly see any downside to this...
 
For comparison, the survey test based stuff that I linked to earlier that was the source of the 'levelling off' comment I quoted, has this as their estimate of number of cases, but note this only includes the 'community population' (private homes etc):

During the most recent week (3 to 9 August 2020), we estimate there were around 0.69 (95% credible interval: 0.42 to 1.08) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people in the community population in England, equating to around 3,800 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 2,300 to 5,900).

They've started covering Wales too:

We have extended the survey to Wales; during the most recent week (3 to 9 August 2020), we estimate that 1,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 400 to 3,500), which is around 1 in 2,100 people.
 
For comparison, the survey test based stuff that I linked to earlier that was the source of the 'levelling off' comment I quoted, has this as their estimate of number of cases, but note this only includes the 'community population' (private homes etc):



They've started covering Wales too:

do you have rate of change over time for those? I’d be interested to see them. Pretty sure I remember less than 1 in 2100 being infected in the UK. If that’s what it is in Wales at the moment the numbers are definitely worse than a month or so ago.
 
The people that I know who are holidaying abroad and will have to quarantine aren't complaining about it. Obvs they're not overjoyed about it, but they knew it was a possibility when they left, and only went if they could manage potential quarantine afterwards.

Tempted to pretend to work I've been to France so I can have 2 weeks at home with the cat and reading tbh.
 
Tempted to pretend to work I've been to France so I can have 2 weeks at home with the cat and reading tbh.
Eggzakery, possibly the easiest way to get 2 weeks of work that's ever come along. "No I don't have proof, sorry a family friend paid the tickets, kept no receipts due to contaminants, it's the responsible thing to do ... bla bla bla".
 
Eggzakery, possibly the easiest way to get 2 weeks of work that's ever come along. "No I don't have proof, sorry a family friend paid the tickets, kept no receipts due to contaminants, it's the responsible thing to do ... bla bla bla".
Good luck getting paid in that situation...
 
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