belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
caused a mass outbreak of laryngitis in Sunnydale twenty odd years ago.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Not the same vaccine.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Will give that a listen, ta.
It's a bit of a mess, stat-wise, cos the ONS stats seem only to cover England and Wales, not Scotland or NI. So there are a few different methodologies mixed up together.
It's hard to say this, cos it's Hancock and the Cunts, but this is actually a sensible thing to change.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
It's okay. You don't have to give credit to Hancock for this. This statistical anomaly was highlighted by Professor Yoon K Loke, of the University of East Anglia, and Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care back in the middle of July. It was all over the newspapers on 17th July, some shouting loudly about overcounting deaths. On the day of the publicity Hancock announced an urgent review and this change to the stats is the outcome of that.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Best band name ever!
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure that that supplier got shut down.
But it all got hushed up
elbows
Well-Known Member
The NRS is Scotlands ONS equivalent. Their weekly updates come out on a Wednesday.
Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland | National Records of Scotland
National Records of Scotland
www.nrscotland.gov.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wouldnt attribute that difference between Englands deaths and elsewhere to just the one reason.
I would, for example, be very tempted to include the fact our severe outbreaks and deaths were spread around large parts of the country in the explanation. Because some of the countries you could compare to England probably had outbreaks mostly centred on particular regions and a few cities etc in particular, so I'm not surprised their decline in deaths looked different to Englands.
There's a thing on social media that a lot of people died of something else but since they were suspected of having Covid19 or actualy tested post mortom and found positive, it's that goes on the death cert. This sounds like obvious bollocks but an extreme example I heard, a guy die in a motorcycle accident. Suspected of having Covid19, no symptoms, just assumed and that went on the death cert. Fucking up an insurance claims for his relatives in the process.
This is obviously so wack but how are Covid19 deaths recorded. What counts as dieing of Covid19?
This is obviously so wack but how are Covid19 deaths recorded. What counts as dieing of Covid19?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That's basically not 100% clear. And it can't be really - comorbidities and that - hence the phrase 'dying with Covid-19'.
But this isn't quite what some people are making it out to be. Up to now, anyone who has ever tested positive for C19 who subsequently dies has been counted on the England stats, and that does explain why those stats have been staying a bit high in the last few weeks. And people who die of covid after more than 4 weeks will still be counted, but only after having been individually evaluated as dying from c-19, rather than in the proverbial car crash. Up to now, it appears to have been a semi-automated process in which c-19 positive test at any time plus death equals a c-19 death, which is anomalous now that we're many months into the pandemic.
(It's not really crashes, though, really, in most cases. In most cases it is people who were taken ill some months ago with c-19, many of them very old or already very ill, who then die of something else.)
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
The NRS is Scotlands ONS equivalent. Their weekly updates come out on a Wednesday.
Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland | National Records of Scotland
National Records of Scotland
As far as I know neither of the stats counters (worldometers and jhu) are using the ONS figures in their calculations but I could be wrong on that.
I am sure there are various arguments for the change and I'm sure some have been incorrectly recorded as covid when it is not, but I find it really hard to believe it's as much as 5000 and we all know this lot will try and fiddle the figures for just about anything to make themselves look better.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Worldometers uses the daily releases, so not ONS. I think JHU is the same, but can't swear by it.
But they do adjust periodically when better data comes out. Sweden's death distribution got rearranged significantly (same number, but very different dates) on Worldometers when the Swedish authorities released new figures a few weeks ago.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yeah i read Sweden's numbers are often back dated from a while ago I think (I think some other countries do it the same way).
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbf I know it sounds like I might be making excuses for the authorities, but I don't think most countries, even England, are trying to fiddle the figures. It's just not that easy to keep track of it all. Worldometers and others also try to keep things as consistent as they can, but with methodologies varying across countries and time, it's not easy.
And 41,000 is still fuckloads. Plus you can't hide from the most basic figure, which is the excess deaths figure. That's the best one really, as it also catches the collateral damage of those killed by the response to covid rather than covid itself. It won't be changed by this adjustment. It's still horrible reading.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
It's ridiculous to argue that someone didnt die of covid if they died in hospital and died after 5 weeks instead of 4 though. I really hope that the BBC has misreported that part.
And yeah 41000 is still loads, I wasnt arguing otherwise. Just that it seems dodgy to me especially since we know from death certificate numbers marked with covid that way more than that have died.
And yeah 41000 is still loads, I wasnt arguing otherwise. Just that it seems dodgy to me especially since we know from death certificate numbers marked with covid that way more than that have died.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No, that's not what will happen. They won't be included in the rather mechanical part of the process that gives the daily figure, but their death will be added later.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It's still a bit mechanical. A 28 day figure daily, plus a 60 day figure weekly, but no time limit if c-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.
It's fair enough if that's what everyone else is doing, tbh. Cos we're all going on Worldometers or JHU and comparing countries.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
It's still a bit mechanical. A 28 day figure daily, plus a 60 day figure weekly, but no time limit if c-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.
It's fair enough if that's what everyone else is doing, tbh. Cos we're all going on Worldometers or JHU and comparing countries.
That makes a bit more sense, the way the bbc reported it sounded like more attempts at covering shit up (I know other countries do it too , it doesn't necessarily make it better). I really hope it is true.
Thing is covid causes long term issues and increases the risks of blood clots and strokes, I've heard of people ending up in hospital from those sort of complications a month or few weeks later, and there is that illness a small number of children get weeks later.
I guess if they aren't 100% what caused it the covid illness could be mentioned as a possible contributing factor.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
It's fair enough if that's what everyone else is doing, tbh. Cos we're all going on Worldometers or JHU and comparing countries.
Worldometers and JHU only go by what countries report obviously. We probably won't know the real numbers for years but they give you kind of an idea.
How? Where will it be added? I’m sure the ONS data will pick it up but not the figures that most media report on regularly. It just seems an attempt to slightly reduce the regularly reported data to make things look better and remove an inconsistency and some errors but introduce others that won’t be reported or focused on widely when those errors are corrected by others. Maybe this is why there is talk of removing these daily figures to avoid future underreporting of deaths under the new methodology.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yep.
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