Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[8ball]

I'm at Paddington now. It's very very quiet and it ll feels a bit melancholy. Loads of the usual shops are closed. The railway companies must be losing an absolute fortune.

Are you meant to be masked on the platforms etc.? At my local station there are signs telling travellers to muzzle up, but on the outside of the ticket barriers there seem to be few people wearing them.

 

[killer b]

Common expectation? Not exactly but I know what you mean. There were nerves about the policy and I still would not have done that bit when they did it, but not because I expected millions of people to abandon social distancing entirely. My concern was for specific chains of transmission, individual spread, local clusters etc. Some people take these ideas to their extreme and expect mass non-compliance and spikes within weeks. The reality is almost always far more mixed than that, and we have mostly only had anecdotal evidence about behaviours over these months. Also we havent really been given much data about compliance in general, press conferences tended to focus on transport figures where it was easy to show a massive and sustained change to behaviours. In fact it is likely that there has been plenty of non-compliance with all manner of rules all the way along. Some of it through no fault of peoples own instincts, but rather the situations they were placed in with their financial situation, jobs, accommodation etc. But in other areas there have been some people 'cheating' all the way through, and compliance has varied by region, age, etc.

I dont know exactly how much of a problem the minority who react very badly to mask stuff will cause. I suppose I expect there will be specific incidents that get highlighted in the news, and some of these will be quite ugly. But no matter how bad such incidents are for the people (eg shop workers) involved, there is a difference between a bunch of incidents and non-compliance on a scale that will force a rethink about how compliance is enforced. When it came to other issues of policing the pandemic in past months, the likes of Hancock would fall back on the rhetoric about 'public consent based policing', which often involved a somewhat hands-off approach. The masks stuff could test that somewhat illusory stance, or it could be dealt with via the usual absurdities and turning a blind eye.

My objection was to the kind of attitude that we've seen throughout this - from government, from SAGE advisors, from people on social media and posters here, that the british people just won't comply with whatever measures are being proposed: because we're thick and racist, because of some 'british exceptionalism', because of our bloody-minded independent spirit - it's an attitude that's at least partly responsible for the delay to lockdown, and likely responsible for the delay to these new mask rules. And so far it's an attitude that by and large has been proved wrong. I'm confident it'll be proved wrong again this time too.

 

[editor]

Are you meant to be masked on the platforms etc.? At my local station there are signs telling travellers to muzzle up, but on the outside of the ticket barriers there seem to be few people wearing them.

Just about everyone I can see is masked up. Same on the train but the masks go down when the food comes out!
The service I'm on is usually rammed - but it must be running at something like 15% from my guesstimate. By sheer coincidence a friend has just sat almost next to me!

 

[8ball]

Just about everyone I can see is masked up. Same on the train but the masks go down when the food comes out!

The advice is to not touch the outside of the mask for the periods you are wearing it. I'm guessing this is almost entirely unfollowed.
I know it's not a popular opinion, but this (and the lack of very clear emphasis) is one of the things that makes me think the chief purpose of the masks business is to fit more people into shops and other businesses.

(with apols to BristolEcho for the late edit, since this post may now be less 'like'able )

 

[Wilf]

I think come Friday people will be wearing them in shops and it will be the minority that are not wearing them that will stand out.

Whether it will be a task for security on the doors not only to restrict access but also to stop people entering without a mask I don't know, but for the larger stores it might come to that.

Part of the problem is the lack of continuity about these things. The Tesco I mentioned is a good point of comparison as I only come down to Rochdale every couple of weeks. When I visited the store a month ago they had the full rigmarole in place - queue, staff on the door, one way system, spaced out queue for the tills. As of today, that's all gone - a shift in what staff do in the store, but also a big shift in what shoppers think about how shopping 'happens'. If we go back to security on the door for masks, something like proper queue discipline, something gets lost every time. I don't mean people have stopped thinking about covid and don't think the majority are behaving badly. It's just that government are shit at managing our behaviour, even with the relative goodwill that a crisis generates.

 

[Orang Utan]

The advice is to not touch the outside of the mask for the periods you are wearing it. I'm guessing this is almost entirely unfollowed.

Blimey, I touch mine all the time as it needs constant adjustment. does touching it make it not work? Don’t see how

 

[8ball]

Blimey, I touch mine all the time as it needs constant adjustment. does touching it make it not work? Don’t see how

If you have the virus, you will get it on your hands; the mask gets moist making it an ideal transmission medium.
If sanitising really regularly I guess that might reduce risks.

 

[LDC]

Blimey, I touch mine all the time as it needs constant adjustment. does touching it make it not work? Don’t see how

When you're taught to use them in a medical environment once it goes on you don't touch it until you take it off, then you carefully use the straps to do so without touching the actual mask, and then drop it straight in a waste bin. For the reasons above, not that it makes the mask not work, but you transfer the virus from the outside of the mask on to your hands potentially.

 

[elbows]

My objection was to the kind of attitude that we've seen throughout this - from government, from SAGE advisors, from people on social media and posters here, that the british people just won't comply with whatever measures are being proposed: because we're thick and racist, because of some 'british exceptionalism', because of our bloody-minded independent spirit - it's an attitude that's at least partly responsible for the delay to lockdown, and likely responsible for the delay to these new mask rules. And so far it's an attitude that by and large has been proved wrong. I'm confident it'll be proved wrong again this time too.

A fair chunk of it was bollocks that they clung to because it was actually the establishment that was struggling to think the unthinkable during the first weeks of the really crucial period.

The closest they came to being right about anything on that front was the concept of lockdown fatigue. Again they used that shit to justify doing far too little, so I wont defend their stance on it. But it had some grains of truth to it, in that we eventually saw all sorts of signs of lockdown fatigue, including on this forum, by a period in May. This did not lead to widespread utter collapse of lockdown and social distancing, it caused a change of mood and the balance of pressures a bit, and some people did start to loosen their behaviours too much but they were a minority. And now it blends in with this general sense that too many people think its all over and want to go back to actual normality, but again I am with you in getting annoyed when this is overstated and feeds into a false sense of how 'everyone' is behaving right now. And no matter if this phenomenon grows, the government are increasingly aware that they have big big problems due to the opposite phenomenon, all the people who have no intention of going back to normal economic activities in a hurry, and will thwart the governments most reckless economic ambitions as a result.

In my mind the lessons learned about lockdown fatigue actually provide more reasons why they should have acted sooner and more strongly in the first place. We've seen that people were quite prepared to turn their lives upside down during the worst period of outbreak. So push down fast and hard in transmission at that stage, and you can go further, faster towards the suppression goals. Leaving us in a better position to cope with the relaxation phase because the levels of infection will have been pushed lower at that point, creating a bit more wiggle room with how people behave from that point onwards.

 

[two sheds]

I'm at Paddington now. It's very very quiet and it ll feels a bit melancholy. Loads of the usual shops are closed. The railway companies must be losing an absolute fortune.

Would have been an ideal time to nationalize lots of companies in trouble. If only there had been a way we could have got a government that would consider it.

 

[editor]

For the record: the only reason I'm travelling on a train - the first time I've left London since March - is to see my sister in law who is critically ill.

 

[elbows]

From looking at the literature, I'm not sure the benefits of masks were necessarily "obvious" early on. Even now there seem to be plenty of dissenters from the science world, and the most vocal advocates seem to have strong links to bodies with the existing messaging. Usually we'd get picky about that sort of thing.

It wasnt obvious if you bought into years and years of misleading conventional wisdom in the west. Not that such conventional wisdom actually extended to our healthcare, where the importance of masks has long been understood.

I'm not in agreement with you at all about this and will be taking a break shortly before I get worked up. Because yes the UK acted on masks because they wanted to compensate for relaxing other stuff, but this balancing act only works if the masks do actually do something to reduce transmission. And I think they do, and I have always thought they do, and citizens in some countries far from europe have known this for a very long time indeed.

 

[8ball]

It wasnt obvious if you bought into years and years of misleading conventional wisdom in the west. Not that such conventional wisdom actually extended to our healthcare, where the importance of masks has long been understood.

I'm not in agreement with you at all about this and will be taking a break shortly before I get worked up. Because yes the UK acted on masks because they wanted to compensate for relaxing other stuff, but this balancing act only works if the masks do actually do something to reduce transmission. And I think they do, and I have always thought they do, and citizens in some countries far from europe have known this for a very long time indeed.

Really no need to get yourself worked up. The idea that even discussing whatever new rule comes along is actively harmful is having a generally infantilising effect, as can be seen by anyone's Facebook feed.

The reason health workers wear masks has always been solidly based on bacterial transmission (why do you think anti-bacterial masks have been around for ages but not anti-viral ones?). Also, when health workers use them, they use them far more rigorously than the general public. The masks seem to go straight under the chin and a lot of the time they are under the nose when in active use. I doubt these movements occur by telekinesis.

I hope they help, and also hope they don't lead to major lapses in other measures we have been taking.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm at Paddington now. It's very very quiet and it ll feels a bit melancholy. Loads of the usual shops are closed. The railway companies must be losing an absolute fortune.

I've just assumed that the government is paying for it all.

I live next to a line where several services meet and terminate at Waterloo. At the start of June it was notable that a lot more services were operating than during lockdown. They are all still pretty empty. Forlornly passing by as commuters have no intention of going back to the office.

 

[elbows]

The reason health workers wear masks has always been solidly based on bacterial transmission (why do you think anti-bacterial masks have been around for ages but not anti-viral ones?).

Garbage! We had a pandemic stash of masks for healthcare workers (that was not large enough) that was all based on influenza virus transmission.

I'm done. I talked about mask attitudes here a lot on April, which is when the UK governments shit mask stance first came under pressure (leading to Hancocks 'a front door is better than any mask') and then I reviewed that stuff again a month ago. I'm just repeating recent history and I've done it too much, the end.

 

[Wilf]

For the record: the only reason I'm travelling on a train - the first time I've left London since March - is to see my sister in law who is critically ill.

Sorry to hear that Ed, hope she pulls through.

 

[8ball]

Garbage! We had a pandemic stash of masks for healthcare workers (that was not large enough) that was all based on influenza virus transmission.

I'm done. I talked about mask attitudes here a lot on April, which is when the UK governments shit mask stance first came under pressure (leading to Hancocks 'a front door is better than any mask') and then I reviewed that stuff again a month ago. I'm just repeating recent history and I've done it too much, the end.

Wevs. Enjoy your self-righteousnes.

If you come back and happen to have any decent literature reviews on the subject I'm happy to update my opinions.

 

[Smangus]

For the record: the only reason I'm travelling on a train - the first time I've left London since March - is to see my sister in law who is critically ill.

Sorry to hear that, best wishes etc.

 

[elbows]

Wevs. Enjoy your self-righteousnes.

If you come back and happen to have any decent literature reviews on the subject I'm happy to update my opinions.

Theres a bunch of links to various studies, and a US perspective on the changing story to maks and reasons for resistance, in the following article if you want to have a look. I havent looked for further studies because it just seems obvious to me that masks are better than no masks, in terms of reducing amount of infectious droplets. They certainly arent perfect, far far from it, but they are especially important now that there is less denial about the likely role of asymptomatic cases in spreading the virus. And thats another area where you will still find conflicting scientific opinion. Because such varied opinions always exist, but I am mostly interested in where the mainstream opinion has shifted to on particular subjects, not whether there is still some doubt (there is nearly always doubt!) or questions over just how effective a particular measure is. There are a lot of questions in this pandemic and I fear we wont actually get solid answers for many of them. eg we may never be able to identify the precise effects of one thing in isolation, and are mostly dealing with complex combinations of things that can only truly be separated in artificial situations that may come with their own flaws in methodology that distort the results.

Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus

We talked to UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford, MD, and infectious disease specialist Peter Chin-Hong, MD, about the CDC’s reversal on mask-wearing, the current science on how masks work, and what to consider when choosing a mask.

www.ucsf.edu

I like science but I dont need to rely on it too mch on this one. Because I use an ecig and I see how far that stuff goes when it leaves my mouth. And there have been moments in my life where I have seen with horror how some small amount of liquid has left my mouth and landed on the person I am talking with. And I have no trouble believing that the same virus that causes severe illness or death in one person can cause no symptoms at all in another, whether that virus is SARS-CoV-2 or influenza etc. So with several routes of transmission and the possibility of being infected and infectious without knowing it due to lack of symptoms appearing obvious and true to me, the whole wear a mask thing becomes a no-brainer to me as a result. Sorry that I got too overheated about this.

 

[8ball]

Cheers - I'm basically a little wary of measures that seem "intuitively obvious" where data is lacking, but I get what you mean - it's not like we ever needed a blinded randomised study on whether parachutes have an effect on death by blunt trauma after falling out of a plane.

I've looked at a few reviews so far and to my mind the actual evidence is about as good as that for recommending the fluoridation of drinking water (as in it is limited and gives a "probably, sort of, maybe" result), but with the virus perking up again I'd agree on trying everything plausible that doesn't negate anything we have been doing so far (which I have a bit of a concern about).

I'll certainly take a look at your link. However it pans out, we should get some useful data for next time.

 

[cupid_stunt]

... but with the virus perking up again...

It is?

 

[8ball]

It is?

Maybe 'perking up' was overstating a little - you decide.

(for the less patient, there has been a small increase, but it is within confidence intervals)

 

[xenon]

The advice is to not touch the outside of the mask for the periods you are wearing it. I'm guessing this is almost entirely unfollowed.
I know it's not a popular opinion, but this (and the lack of very clear emphasis) is one of the things that makes me think the chief purpose of the masks business is to fit more people into shops and other businesses.

(with apols to BristolEcho for the late edit, since this post may now be less 'like'able )

Have to touch mask to remove it. SO better just to say, don't touch it unless you've washed your hands.

Which I wouldn't have thought needed to be stated explicitly being as it's kinda obvious and of a piece with early advice about not touching your face.

 

[8ball]

Have to touch mask to remove it. SO better just to say, don't touch it unless you've washed your hands.

Which I wouldn't have thought needed to be stated explicitly being as it's kinda obvious and of a piece with early advice about not touching your face.

I'd hope "for the periods you are wearing it! would have covered that.

 

[xenon]

For the record: the only reason I'm travelling on a train - the first time I've left London since March - is to see my sister in law who is critically ill.

Sorry to hear this Ed.

I did go and visit family last week, since travel restriction advice has been lifted a bit. Never seen Victoria station so quiet.

 

[Supine]

It is?

Little bit. Not much / TBD

 

[cupid_stunt]

Little bit. Not much / TBD

View attachment 223108

Yes, but there's been an increase in testing, particularly focused on areas of concern, so that's bound to show a increase, I am a bit surprised it's not showing a bigger increase TBH.

On the 1st July 7-day average was 857 new daily cases, whereas yesterday it was down to 621, there was a bit of a dip in-between, but generally speaking it's been floating around the 600 mark over the last 2 weeks, despite the increased targeted testing.

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[8ball]

Yes, but there's been an increase in testing, particularly focused on areas of concern, so that's bound to show a increase, I am a bit surprised it's not showing a bigger increase TBH.

On the 1st July 7-day average was 857 new daily cases, whereas yesterday it was down to 621, there was a bit of a dip in-between, but generally speaking it's been floating around the 600 mark over the last 2 weeks, despite the increased targeted testing.

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Fair point, happy to retract 'perking up'.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, but there's been an increase in testing, particularly focused on areas of concern, so that's bound to show a increase, I am a bit surprised it's not showing a bigger increase TBH.

On the 1st July 7-day average was 857 new daily cases, whereas yesterday it was down to 621, there was a bit of a dip in-between, but generally speaking it's been floating around the 600 mark over the last 2 weeks, despite the increased targeted testing.

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Yep, and encouragingly, a large majority of positives are coming from Pillar 2 now, with only around 100-odd Pillar 1. That means most positives are coming from people who are not seriously ill, or even ill at all.

I had a look at Spain's numbers this morning, and it's a similar story with the recent Catalunya/Aragon outbreak: thousands of positives in Catalunya the last week, but only 18 new hospital admissions in that time and no deaths.

This is all very different from back in March or April, when only those who were really ill were getting tested. Catalunya's recent spike would not have been detected back then, and neither would Leicester's. Hopefully showing the ability to catch things before they cause damage.

 

[elbows]

I need a broader range of data over a longer period before I can judge, but yeah, I wouldnt say there is much in the current numbers that would make me conclude that we actually have a real increase of note. This is one of the reasons I want sewage monitoring though, changes to the testing system over time means I need other data too, to rule out testing system changes as being responsible. But hospital data lags behind the infection picture by some weeks, and can miss increased spread amongst groups that arent so vulnerable to the worst health effects, so we need something else like sewage data for a more timely and complete indication.

Those case numbers for me should be interpreted in the same way we interpret news about outbreaks being detected in specific locations. The question of whether these are happening now with a changed frequency or magnitude, or whether we are just getting better at detecting them now that we are zooming in, sharing more data, in a position to actually try to deal with outbreaks at this level etc.