Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[platinumsage]

At the time I fixated on Vallance saying the UK was 4 weeks behind Italy (when it was really 2). But he said something else at the same time, that may seem even more bizarre given the actual timing we are hoping our peak has now

Huffington Post have now picked this up:

"The miscalculation leading to the four-week claim can be laid squarely at the door of the mathematical modelling sub-group of Sage. So why weren’t SPI-M’s world-leading modellers better able to calibrate their models to the early UK data. It turns out that some of groups who contribute to SPI-M did calculate significantly shorter and more realistic doubling times at an earlier stage in the UK’s epidemic, but that their estimates never found consensus within the group. Members of SPI-M have communicated their concerns to me, that some modelling groups had more influence over the consensus than others.

On March 16, Neil Fergusson’s Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team published their infamous report, which used effective estimates of the doubling time of over five days – way, way too slow. This figure seems to have dominated proceedings in SPI-M. It was a long time before more accurate doubling time figures eventually made their way up through SAGE and on to policy-makers."

The UK Was Never Four Weeks Behind Italy. How Did 'Following The Science’ Go So Wrong?

 

[LDC]

Support bubbles. Sure they'll be welcome, but urgh.

 

[Petcha]

Boris clearly has no fucking idea what a support bubble means. It sounds like he's learning about it during the press conference.

 

[ska invita]

Having a bubble

 

[Petcha]

He almost seems to pride himself on being 'bad on details'. Just what we need right now. A PM who doesn't like detail.

 

[LDC]

Boris clearly has no fucking idea what a support bubble means. It sounds like he's learning about it during the press conference.

He just totally fucked answering that second question from the public up. Totally confused the whole issue. And missed the chance to call meeting up with a partner a sex bubble.

 

[weltweit]

WTF is this bubbling business?

Does it finally mean I can drive to see my son, and stay the night?

 

[Petcha]

He just totally fucked answering that second question from the public up. Totally confused the whole issue. And missed the chance to call it a sex bubble.

Lol. Yes, my flatmate just called it a sex bubble. Not quite sure how this is going to work for those of us in flatshares. If the household can only choose one other household.

 

[Petcha]

WTF is this bubbling business?

Does it finally mean I can drive to see my son, and stay the night?

Yep

 

[LDC]

Yep

Depends. Only for single adult households, not for either of you unless you both live alone.

 

[Petcha]

You can nominate one other household to visit and stay overnight at without observing social distancing. But you can't interchange the household.

 

[LDC]

Lol. Yes, my flatmate just called it a sex bubble. Not quite sure how this is going to work for those of us in flatshares. If the household can only choose one other household.

Not at all if you're in flatshares.

 

[Petcha]

Not at all if you're in flatshares.

Fuck that

 

[LDC]

I think...

One adult living alone can go into another adult's house who also lives alone. (Also allowed if you have kids in the households).

Must be exclusive, you can only both do that together, not with any other houses.

 

[LDC]

Fuck that

It's partly for that reason, how can you do it in a controlled way in mixed households? It then massively increased risk of infection spread.

 

[Petcha]

Sorry to repost this, but... I can't unsee it.

 

[weltweit]

My son lives with his mother and stepfather. So I guess that is a no. Grr

 

[LDC]

My son lives with his mother and stepfather. So I guess that is a no. Grr

Rightly it's a no currently though. Infection rates are still really high. As Whitty has just said, we're not near the end, we're in the middle of it. Still plenty of room for another, maybe even bigger, disaster.

 

[maomao]

So basically people are allowed to get laid but they're not allowed to put it about. Us married people aren't allowed extra marital affairs yet.

 

[LDC]

So basically people are allowed to get laid but they're not allowed to put it about. Us married people aren't allowed extra marital affairs yet.

I have wondered how people having affairs have managed with lockdown. As in loads must have stopped? Or people suddenly left partners maybe?

 

[Petcha]

Lol. He's a fucking idiot. He's a liability. Listen to this bullshit...

 

[Teaboy]

I have wondered how people having affairs have managed with lockdown. As in loads must have stopped? Or people suddenly left partners maybe?

I know of a couple of fairly promising relationships that have failed during this period. Both scenarios was because at least one party had housemates who were not keen on them meeting partner during the really lockdown phase.

 

[LDC]

He just always sounds like the person that had some important and detailed preparation to do for a meeting/briefing, but actually couldn't be arsed, then had a quick flick through the paper before and thought 'fuck it, I can wing this' and then very quickly gets caught out so waffles to try and hide it.

 

[Petcha]

He just always sounds like the person that had some important and detailed preparation to do for a meeting/briefing, but actually couldn't be arsed, then had a quick flick through the paper before and thought 'fuck it, I can wing this' and then very quickly gets caught out so waffles to try and hide it.

Yes, I agree. In that respect, we're kindred souls. I'm guilty of that all the time - I often just wing it during a meeting and obfuscate because I hate my job and have no interest in reading up, I usually get away with it too.

But I'm not dealing with tens of thousands of lives.

 

[Teaboy]

He sounds as he is. You want a man to go out a make a rousing speech, high on enthusiasm and short on detail than he's good at that. You want him to make a speech that's accurate on the detail than he's hopelessly out of his depth. In this situation he's trying to be be accurate in his message and you can see him floundering for every word.

 

[Chilli.s]

Of course, as a responsible parent, I'll apply the Cummings method of interpritation to this.

 

[Numbers]

So basically people are allowed to get laid but they're not allowed to put it about. Us married people aren't allowed extra marital affairs yet.

Grow a beard. My wife has been having an affair with a very noble bearded gentleman the past cpl of months.

 

[Petcha]

Well. Zoos will reopen. That's the main takeaway from that. Phew.

 

[Numbers]

Rightly it's a no currently though. Infection rates are still really high. As Whitty has just said, we're not near the end, we're in the middle of it. Still plenty of room for another, maybe even bigger, disaster.

He’s the only one I have any form of trust with.

 

[Petcha]

He’s the only one I have any form of trust with.

Why? He's one of the architects of this shambles. He said 20,000 deaths would be a 'good result'

We're at 40k, and in reality more like 70k.