Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[MrSki]

 

[elbows]

So subtracting the total figures from last april from the total figures from this april should give you the excess deaths for that month, is that right? If so, there's almost exactly twice as many deaths this april than last (in england and wales) - 44 thousand last year, 88 thousand this year.

variations as you'd expect - low density areas are mostly less hit, high density areas hit harder.

Nearly. They use an average of the previous years numbers, over for example the previous 5 years. But its a pain in the arse to do this with data that covers this level of geographical detail, by the time I get back to 2017 some of the list of locations has changed in a few places, so I havent bothered yet. You can still get a pretty good idea by just taking one previous years numbers instead of the average over a longer period, although I wouldnt make a habit of quoting any of the resulting numbers as gospel.

 

[MrSki]

Nearly. They use an average of the previous years numbers, over for example the previous 5 years. But its a pain in the arse to do this with data that covers this level of geographical detail, by the time I get back to 2017 some of the list of locations has changed in a few places, so I havent bothered yet. You can still get a pretty good idea by just taking one previous years numbers instead of the average over a longer period, although I wouldnt make a habit of quoting any of the resulting numbers as gospel.

I have heard experts on the radio saying that the average deaths should have been lower this year cos it was such a mild winter. What is you opinion?

 

[elbows]

At the end of that statistical note from the daily number 10 briefing which you just posted an image of, they say that PHE have revised their daily series to show when these deaths were reported. I havent really seen evidence of that in the data yet, so I went looking for more detail. I found some in this document, including some graphs:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/889025/Technical_Summary_PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths_20200601.pdf

 

[elbows]

I have heard experts on the radio saying that the average deaths should have been lower this year cos it was such a mild winter. What is you opinion?

Excess winter mortality can be influenced by weather conditions for sure. The cold no doubt influences deaths at that time of year, and really extreme periods of cold in the winter can show up more dramatically in excess death stats. I think when I was looking at the historical data it was possible to see the heat wave of 1976 in that summers data too.

But its often influenza epidemics that really drive the yearly cycles of death in a more obvious manner. On this occasion our flu season was really early this last winter, it shows up in the numbers for the last months of 2019 more than the first months of 2020, although it is no doubt still some part of the picture in the numbers for January and February. And this last winter was already described quite widely at the time as the most challenging the NHS has faced, although all the details of why didnt really get a satisfactory airing at the time if I remember.

Its difficult for me to say exactly what level of deaths I would have expected in various months of this year so far if it was not for this pandemic. I think its quite reasonable to think that the numbers would have been on the lower end of things for the reasons already mentioned. I also seem to recall that when I was looking at the raw numbers the economist have been collecting in regards excess deaths all around the world in this pandemic, they showed a similar thing in plenty of other countries in the weeks after their flu seasons were past the worst and before the pandemic really took its toll. Their deaths were running below the average until Covid-19. I need to check that again though.

 

[Raheem]

I have heard experts on the radio saying that the average deaths should have been lower this year cos it was such a mild winter. What is you opinion?

I've also heard experts on the radio (one, at least) give the opposite argument: that the mild winter should lead to slightly higher excess mortality, because it will have allowed more people close to death to survive into the spring.

 

[elbows]

I've also heard experts on the radio (one, at least) give the opposite argument: that the mild winter should lead to slightly higher excess mortality, because it will have allowed more people close to death to survive into the spring.

I'm sure all sorts of things like that are possible, but there is also the question of just how large a difference these things actually make. Perhaps a graph of some recent years will help. This one is from the weekly surveillance report. Maybe it illustrates that certain things arent worth spending too much time taking into consideration given the scale of this pandemic, maybe not, people can judge for themselves. Helpfully it does feature several previous winters that didnt have large spikes in excess mortality, so you can see what effect that had on subsequent periods after those winters ended. And note that I'll still stick to my point that I would generally expect the nature of influenza outbreaks to be the main difference between a lot of these years. But its also true that I dont have time to actually go and find examples of which years may illustrate winters where the weather had an obvious influence too.



From National COVID-19 surveillance reports

I'd certainly suggest that at least in those years, the idea that if deaths dont happen over winter then most of them will still happen within months, doesnt really show up to a large degree in this data. Its a more minor phenomenon than may be imagined. Which fits really with influenza deaths - although such things do kill people who were near the end anyway, a lot of the people that die from them during a bad flu epidemic could have carried on for quite a long time otherwise, perhaps for years until another bad flu season got them. Although note that when I say a more minor phenomenon, I only mean it isnt large enough to stand out in overall numbers above or below the normal. Given how many thousands of deaths we always have every week all throughout the year, a lot of the sorts of deaths we can imagine are, from a stats and graphs point of view, absorbed into this normal base of deaths that we arent even thinking that much about when looking at graphs like that.

 

[little_legs]

 

[MrSki]

Excess winter mortality can be influenced by weather conditions for sure. The cold no doubt influences deaths at that time of year, and really extreme periods of cold in the winter can show up more dramatically in excess death stats. I think when I was looking at the historical data it was possible to see the heat wave of 1976 in that summers data too.

But its often influenza epidemics that really drive the yearly cycles of death in a more obvious manner. On this occasion our flu season was really early this last winter, it shows up in the numbers for the last months of 2019 more than the first months of 2020, although it is no doubt still some part of the picture in the numbers for January and February. And this last winter was already described quite widely at the time as the most challenging the NHS has faced, although all the details of why didnt really get a satisfactory airing at the time if I remember.

Its difficult for me to say exactly what level of deaths I would have expected in various months of this year so far if it was not for this pandemic. I think its quite reasonable to think that the numbers would have been on the lower end of things for the reasons already mentioned. I also seem to recall that when I was looking at the raw numbers the economist have been collecting in regards excess deaths all around the world in this pandemic, they showed a similar thing in plenty of other countries in the weeks after their flu seasons were past the worst and before the pandemic really took its toll. Their deaths were running below the average until Covid-19. I need to check that again though.

Thank you.

 

[redsquirrel]

Note on excess death data the FT, Economist and New York Timeshave published the data sets they are using on githubs if it is any interest to people.
Financial-Times/coronavirus-excess-mortality-data
nytimes/covid-19-data
TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker

 

[teqniq]

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Apparently, in the UK, we can end a pandemic just by believing it is over and the government declaring a wind down of restrictions because people are bored of it now. Who knew? Silly rest of the world thinking it took a huge effort to control and eradicate infection.

 

[andysays]

View attachment 215789

#BlackLivesDon'tMatterUK...

 

[MrSki]

So not only were yesterday's figures misleading there were also more deaths in hospital than the total number.

 

[maomao]

So not only were yesterday's figures misleading there were also more deaths in hospital than the total number.

6 people came back to life in care homes?

 

[gentlegreen]

There's a woman near me with COPD - probably 70-ish - has carers visit several times a day, regular oxygen deliveries.
those people put on masks.
The poor woman never steps outside her door and I wonder if that was ever the intention.
She could at least have been sitting out in the afternoon sunshine - she'd be 3 metres from light foot traffic...

Neighbours helping her with shopping stay outside, but today I watched a delivery guy go inside and stay there for a while.

I confess that as a fit and healthy 60 year old I was perhaps more cautious at first than I strictly needed to be and I'm now making a point of walking through the park every day and am starting to cycle a bit.

What I want to know is who the new cases are and how they contracted the disease.

 

[Sue]

She could at least have been sitting out in the afternoon sunshine - she'd be 3 metres from light foot traffic...

Maybe she doesn't like sitting in the sun -- I certainly don't!

 

[elbows]

Stay Absurd. Stay Reckless. Stay out on a limb.

UK’s chief medical officers dashed PM’s ‘hopes’ to lower Covid alert

The government has relaxed the lockdown, despite advisers warning against reducing the Covid-19 alert level.

www.bbc.co.uk

On Wednesday last week, the prime minister told parliament's Liaison Committee that "we're coming down the Covid alert system from level 4 to Level 3 tomorrow, we hope, we're going to be taking a decision tomorrow".

That was in reply to a question from the Northern Ireland Select Committee chair Simon Hoare about the PM's adviser Dominic Cummings.

But the next day, the government decided instead not to lower the alert level.

"It was clear that government wanted to change it and scientists and the chief medical officer didn't," said one political source involved. This account was later confirmed to me by a scientist involved in pandemic planning.

The government itself has not confirmed or denied this account, only suggested that it was "always clear" that the alert level was not the primary reason for easing lockdown.

Over the weekend, a series of senior members of the Sage advisory committee announced that the easing of lockdown was premature.

Then there is a more significant question about who actually decides the alert level. The prime minister had said last month that it should be the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC).

When I asked at Friday's government briefing what the centre had said, NHS Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis replied that the JBC was "currently under development setting itself up" and "feeding information into the four chief medical officers who have to think about alert levels".

And this is another key problem.

It is my understanding that there are some tensions between administrations, and some of this spilt out into the teleconference last Thursday. The Joint Biosecurity Centre has not been signed off by the devolved administrations.

 

[LDC]

Everyone ready for a second spike in September then?

 

[David Clapson]

I subscribe to the daily Spectator email newsletter. (Know your enemy.) Just got some very bleak Covid news:

We have taken a financial hit but nothing as bad as I feared. We remain a profitable and growing company, now with strengthening cash flow.

 

[gentlegreen]

Maybe she doesn't like sitting in the sun -- I certainly don't!

OK she could sit out there in the morning - it faces West ...

 

[Sue]

OK she could sit out there in the morning - it faces West ...

Or maybe she's okay as she is.

 

[maomao]

Everyone ready for a second spike in September then?

I reckon October/November. A few weeks after we start filling those enclosed spaces on tubes and buses and in offices and classrooms again.

 

[gentlegreen]

Or maybe she's okay as she is.

Fair enough.
Her life before this happened involved going out in her car several times a day.
At least recently she has her front door ajar so she can feel more in contact with people.

 

[Sunray]

What I want to know is who the new cases are and how they contracted the disease.

I do too, this question is at the heart of the pandemic response.

Even if the people recruited to do track and trace aren't ready, they could at least try to get some idea where people are getting the infections now. If we know the answer to the above question, we can go all out tackling it rather than a UK wide approach where everyone is locked into their homes for 11 weeks.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Government has released its BAME report.

First the good news.

Some evidence also suggests the risk of death from COVID-19 is higher among people of BAME groups (15) and an ONS analysis showed that, when taking age into account, Black males were 4.2 times more likely to die from a COVID-19-related death than White males (16). The risk was also increased for people of Bangladeshi and Pakistani, Indian and Mixed ethnic groups. However, an analysis of over 10,000 patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care in UK hospitals suggests that, once age, sex, obesity and comorbidities are taken into account, there is no difference in the likelihood of being admitted to intensive care or of dying between ethnic groups (17)

Now the bad news.

The relationship between ethnicity and health is complex and likely to be the result of a combination of factors. Firstly, people of BAME communities are likely to be at increased risk of acquiring the infection. This is because BAME people are more likely to live in urban areas (18), in overcrowded households (19), in deprived areas (20), and have jobs that expose them to higher risk (21). People of BAME groups are also more likely than people of White British ethnicity to be born abroad (22), which means they may face additional barriers in accessing services that are created by, for example, cultural and language differences.

Secondly, people of BAME communities are also likely to be at increased risk of poorer outcomes once they acquire the infection. For example, some co-morbidities which increase the risk of poorer outcomes from COVID-19 are more common among certain ethnic groups. People of Bangladeshi and Pakistani background have higher rates of cardiovascular disease than people from White British ethnicity (23), and people of Black Caribbean and Black African ethnicity have higher rates of hypertension compared with other ethnic groups (24). Data from the National Diabetes Audit suggests that type II diabetes prevalence is higher in people from BAME communities(25)

The worse news is that Liz Truss is apparently going to lead a further inquiry. The subtle racism news is how that report uses language to obscure the issue, which is poverty and income and yes class.

People of BAME groups are also more likely than people of White British ethnicity to be born abroad (22), which means they may face additional barriers in accessing services that are created by, for example, cultural and language differences.

See that, thats putting the blame on the victims. Never mind the different living and working patterns along with systemic poverty, no lets blame cultural differences.

 

[DotCommunist]

.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not going well for the muppets.

 

[wayward bob]

have the advisers ditched the briefings now?

 

[cupid_stunt]

have the advisers ditched the briefings now?

I don't think they can be trusted to lie & back-up the government.