Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Roadkill]

My summary of article is that the government expect Councils to deal with homelessness and the Tories aren't going to put any money into this.

One of the things about the pandemic is that its local Councils along with volunteers who have stepped in to deal with the social consequences of the pandemic/ lockdown. With little support from Boris.

What support there is the Tories are making clear now is temporary. The lifting of the lockdown will see government telling Councils its your problem now.

Also the article points out the no eviction period ends soon and its likely there will be an increase in people made homeless.

As far as I can see, they're going to use the crisis to tip local authorities into even more financial trouble, and force an even greater retrenchment of services than ten years of unnecessary austerity have already caused.

'Never let a good crisis go to waste.' Tory scum.

 

[teuchter]

One option, in a scenario where public transport becomes unsafe, would be to requisition all private cars and redistribute their use to those who need to travel most. Key workers need to get to work safely, and you can't afford to keep the buses running at a high enough capacity? Then they get your audi until this is all over, and sorry but this means you can't use it to drive 50 miles to a national trust car park. Any cars not needed for essential stuff are dumped somewhere out of the way, and the space freed up is used to create wide walkng/running/cycle lanes on every street.

 

[Roadkill]

One option, in a scenario where public transport becomes unsafe, would be to requisition all private cars and redistribute their use to those who need to travel most. Key workers need to get to work safely, and you can't afford to keep the buses running at a high enough capacity? Then they get your audi until this is all over, and sorry but this means you can't use it to drive 50 miles to a national trust car park. Any cars not needed for essential stuff are dumped somewhere out of the way, and the space freed up is used to create wide walkng/running/cycle lanes on every street.

This isn't really the thread for this, is it...

 

[teuchter]

This isn't really the thread for this, is it...

Why not?

 

[Roadkill]

Why not?

Your own words here.

 

[kabbes]

One option, in a scenario where public transport becomes unsafe, would be to requisition all private cars and redistribute their use to those who need to travel most. Key workers need to get to work safely, and you can't afford to keep the buses running at a high enough capacity? Then they get your audi until this is all over, and sorry but this means you can't use it to drive 50 miles to a national trust car park. Any cars not needed for essential stuff are dumped somewhere out of the way, and the space freed up is used to create wide walkng/running/cycle lanes on every street.

Why not? My Skoda has been sat idle for 7 weeks now. It no longer starts as its battery is completely flat. I wouldn’t be averse to it being used by somebody who has a real need for it.

I need the Panda every two weeks to get to the nearest town that has a proper shop, though. I wish I didn’t, but that’s how life is set up.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's a crap plan in London. Even if everyone who could did it would never work. Imagine every retail worker in the west end going to work by car.

I agree not great for workers in central London, but it's not all about London, there is a whole country beyond London.

 

[teuchter]

Your own words here.

I've changed my mind. Transport issues are completely on topic for a discussion of covid impacts.

 

[Cid]

I think a voluntary app where you can list your car, and with some small stipend/free clean/service would work.

 

[Cid]

But what might work better is to put some of the onus on businesses and government to work out phased working hours, maximise work from home etc.

 

[Gramsci]

I've not had time to read this yet, but London Reconnections pieces are usually very well informed and well written.

TfL: THE IMPOSSIBLE FINANCES OF FIGHTING A PANDEMIC - London Reconnections

The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.

www.londonreconnections.com

This morning thought another issue that this article raises is tha TFL is a public authority in its own right. As such it plays an important role in the economy of London and beyond. Its infrastructure projects are among the biggest in Europe. So its supply chain helps keep manufacturing going. Unlike most of London economy which is based on Financial sector and services allied to it TFL is part of the "real" economy.

If this is the way Boris sees of kickstarting the economy it doesnt bode well. The "bailout" was given in grudging fashion. Instead of one oppurtunity to see public sector infrastructure projects for public transport as way forward post lockdown. Re orient the economy away from Finance.

 

[Roadkill]

I've changed my mind. Transport issues are completely on topic for a discussion of covid impacts.

Absolutely they are, but fantasising about hypothetical measures which will never happen seems rather less so. Anyway, I've no wish for an argument over this and too much work on to indulge in one if I had - it just struck me as an idea better aired on the thread you pointed to.

On a different subject, a paper here by Lawrence Freedman giving an early assessment of the UK government's response to the virus. I've only read the first few pages so far, but it looks rather good.

 

[teuchter]

This morning thought another issue that this article raises is tha TFL is a public authority in its own right. As such it plays an important role in the economy of London and beyond. Its infrastructure projects are among the biggest in Europe. So its supply chain helps keep manufacturing going. Unlike most of London economy which is based on Financial sector and services allied to it TFL is part of the "real" economy.

If this is the way Boris sees of kickstarting the economy it doesnt bode well. The "bailout" was given in grudging fashion.

Yes, and as you say the supply chain extends outside of London.
Interesting article about Wrightbus, from a year or so ago, also from LR

The Rise and Fall of a Vision: Wrightbus Enters Administration - London Reconnections

The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.

www.londonreconnections.com

 

[teuchter]

Absolutely they are, but fantasising about hypothetical measures which will never happen seems rather less so.

Better cancel 90% of urban75 discussions then

 

[A380]

 

[bimble]

I don’t know what to make of this. Can it possibly be true that London now has the lowest infection rate in the country?
Very strange.

Coronavirus could be 'wiped out in London in weeks' - but what's the picture in the rest of England?

The R value in England is 0.75, firmly under 1.0 - which the prime minister named as a requirement for the easing of lockdown.

news.sky.com

 

[Gramsci]

One option, in a scenario where public transport becomes unsafe, would be to requisition all private cars and redistribute their use to those who need to travel most. Key workers need to get to work safely, and you can't afford to keep the buses running at a high enough capacity? Then they get your audi until this is all over, and sorry but this means you can't use it to drive 50 miles to a national trust car park. Any cars not needed for essential stuff are dumped somewhere out of the way, and the space freed up is used to create wide walkng/running/cycle lanes on every street.

Cycling through central London see a lot of Lamborghini loving the empty roads. All for them being requistioned.

In London buses are basically free to use now. Less traffic means they go from A to B quicker.

Central London is heaviy built up area where reduction in private car use is possible. This woud not apply to rural areas.

I agree that the lockdown has delivered an experiment in a car free urban area. And Im llking it.

In Lambeth pavements are starting to be temporarily widened to help social distancing. Social distancing - ie pedestrians- are now seen as a priority above car users. Measures that would have taken months of acrimonious debate and opposition from the car lobby are being undertaken with little opposition.

Its one of the better unintended consequences of the pandemic.

So yes transport is a relevant issue. The pandemic isnt going away soon.

 

[Cerv]

Which, I guess, proves that we are going to be in the shit for a bloody long time.

so is that how long the government think it's going to replenish the emergency stock piles. great

 

[teuchter]

Measures that would have taken months of acrimonious debate and opposition from the car lobby are being undertaken with little opposition.

Yes - it's really taken me by surprise and it's very welcome.

Trying to remain optimistic that it won't all get reversed if/when things get back to 'normal'.

 

[teqniq]

NHS Labs Were Frozen Out Of Coronavirus Testing Programme, Says Top Scientist

 

[2hats]

Do you mean 99.63%?

I did indeed (as the CI would infer). Typo corrected.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Compared to westminster

Today's The Arselick* is highly critical of Scotland's handling of the crisis.

* The National

 

[teuchter]

Pleased to see this positive response to the situation from the London mayor's office

Car-free zones in London as Congestion Charge and ULEZ reinstated

One of the world’s largest car-free zones will be created in central London as Congestion Charge and ULEZ reinstated

www.london.gov.uk

The bit I have highlighted is particularly interesting.

• ‘Monumental’ effort required from all Londoners to enable social distancing on public transport as lockdown is eased
• Car-free streets set to enable millions of journeys to be safely made on foot or by bike
• Londoners asked to walk or cycle for journeys from mainline rail stations rather than use the Tube
• The Congestion Charge, Ultra Low Emission Zone and Low Emission Zone will be reinstated on Monday (18 May) to prevent London’s roads from becoming unusably blocked
• To support NHS staff, the Congestion Charge reimbursement scheme is being extended and will also be open to care home workers
• As a Government condition of TfL funding deal it is proposed to review the Congestion Charge. As a temporary measure and to support the transformation of London’s streets, it is proposed that the Congestion Charge will increase to £15 next month and the hours of operation extended
• Public transport must now be a last resort. Londoners must continue working from home and spend more leisure time in local areas.

 

[killer b]

The Arselick*

* The National

How do you get from National to Arselick? As pun names for things go its... a stretch.

 

[teuchter]

And statement on the funding deal:

Statement from the Mayor of London regarding Transport for London

Statement from the Mayor of London regarding Transport for London

www.london.gov.uk

Sadiq Khan said:
“We have just reached agreement with the Government on a funding package to allow TfL to run public transport safely in London for the next four and a half months. This was necessary because Covid-19 has had a catastrophic impact on TfL’s finances – as it has on every transport provider in the UK.
“I want to be completely honest and upfront with Londoners – this is not the deal I wanted. But it was the only deal the Government put on the table and I had no choice but to accept it to keep the Tubes and buses running.
“In the last few years, London has been the only major city in western Europe that hasn’t received direct Government funding to run day to day transport services since it was cut by the last Government. This means we rely very heavily on passenger fares to pay for the services we run. Fares income has fallen by 90 per cent in the last two months because Londoners have done the right thing and stayed at home – so there simply isn’t enough money coming in to pay for our services.
“We are running as many services as humanly possible given the number of staff off sick, shielding or self-isolating. As staff are returning to work we are increasing services as fast as possible to get back to 100 per cent. From Monday we aim to run around 85 per cent of buses, 75 per cent of Tubes, restore the Circle line and re-open some of the 37 closed stations.
“The Government is, in effect, making ordinary Londoners pay the cost for doing the right thing on Covid-19. They want fares to go up next January – ending the four years fares freeze I delivered after the last election. They have insisted that free travel is temporarily suspended for Freedom Pass and 60-plus card holders at peak times. We agreed it was the right thing to review the Congestion Charge.
“The Government has also insisted that, unlike the deals done elsewhere in the country, TfL takes on £505 million of additional debt. This will undo the hard work we’ve put in to fix TfL’s finances over the last four years – when TfL’s operating deficit has reduced by 71 per cent.
“This deal is a sticking plaster. The old model for funding public transport in London simply does not work in this new reality – fares income will not cover the cost of running services while so few people can safely use public transport. Over the next few months we will have to negotiate a new funding model with Government – which will involve either permanent funding from Government or giving London more control over key taxes so we can pay for it ourselves - or a combination of both.
“TfL and City Hall will do all that we can to enable London’s recovery. We will run as many trains and buses as possible. But we need Londoners’ help. We must not use public transport unless absolutely necessary. People who can work from home must do so. Everyone must walk and cycle more. People should wear a face covering throughout their journeys.
“I promise to continue being as upfront and clear as possible with Londoners about the challenges facing our city. This is not the deal I wanted for our city, but together we can overcome the challenges we face.”

 

[teqniq]

The Fail, going after the unions in an effort to get the proles back to work, also indulges in a little Photoshopping:

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Fail, going after the unions in an effort to get the proles back to work, also indulges in a little Photoshopping:

It's a shit rag, but that isn't Photoshopping, the image is just cropped to fit with the text on the page.

 

[teqniq]

It's a shit rag, but that isn't Photoshopping, the image is just cropped to fit with the text on the page.

Yes, it is. Look at the image under the text.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yes, it is. Look at the image under the text.

Having clicked on the twitter link & seen the full width of the photo, I see what you are getting at, but the image is just faded/cropped to allow the text to stand out, from a design point of view, it would be very messy otherwise.

 

[elbows]

I don’t know what to make of this. Can it possibly be true that London now has the lowest infection rate in the country?
Very strange.

Coronavirus could be 'wiped out in London in weeks' - but what's the picture in the rest of England?

The R value in England is 0.75, firmly under 1.0 - which the prime minister named as a requirement for the easing of lockdown.

news.sky.com

Ah yes, the press have noticed the model that I posted about on Monday.

#11,711

I dont know if some report came out that makes use of it, or if someone drew attention to it, or whether they just found the original study details.

Given the way the epidemic exploded in London and the way the graphs of hospital admissions, intensive care and deaths went up and down rather steeply for London compared to elsewhere, I think we would expect them to be at a more advanced stage of things now, which at this stage means less cases. But whether its anything like the numbers mentioned by that model is very much open to question, it was hard to resist mocking the number when I saw it on Monday, dont know what to think really.

This sort of thing is one of the reasons I am still taking things one week at a time.

Also in the press today is a study which suggested 19 million had already been infected. eg:

19 million people in UK ‘likely to have been infected with coronavirus already’, study finds

University of Manchester study claims 29 per cent of British population may already have had the disease – but sceptics urge caution over findings

www.independent.co.uk

This is massively at odds with the sorts of initial studies using actual antibody testing we hear a bit more about these days. So it generates some headlines and some head scratching. It is possible to reduce the gap if we claim that lots of people who got infected didnt end up with antibodies, but this is not an assumption I am prepared to make, its just another thing to consider. Its probably more likely that the methodology of the study, which seems to have been based off of the ratio of severely ill cases compared total cases, does a poor job of reflecting reality. I havent read the study itself yet, I will comment again if there is useful detail in it.

So yeah, much is still unknown and I am relying on various real data over time to either support or destroy the conclusions of various studies. More reasons for me to take it one week at a time, and to continue to resist most asumptions about what the rest of the year will look like. I still hope for some 'surprises' of a positive kind, none of these studies get me there, some of them point in interesting directions but assumptions based off of them are far from safe.

If I had hospital admission data on an English regional basis then it would help, but I dont. I might even have to start looking at regional confirmed cases stuff at this rate, which I had previously avoided due to our crappy testing regime. But when a model spits out exceedingly low new case figures for London like that, I'll have to use whatever data I can get to test their results. I think I am expecting them to fail that test in quite a notable way, but this is my assumptions showing.