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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Update on the excess mortality estimating we spoke of yesterday. With todays ONS data it turns out that the model used for the estimates came up with a figure that was lower than the reality.

 
Matt Hancock has broken it to the British people they may have to cancel their summer holidays this year :rolleyes:

Matt Hancock said:
“We will seek to reopen hospitality from early July if we keep successfully reducing the spread of this virus but I think social distancing of some kind is going to continue,” Hancock said.

“And the conclusion from that is that it’s unlikely big lavish international holidays are going to be possible for this summer. I just think that’s a reality of life.”
[/quote}

So no Tuscany for us this year. :(
 
I’m probably being stupid here but doesn’t the extension of the scheme add more confusion to the waffle that came out on Sunday night? I’m furloughed so happy about it.
A large amount of people who aren't working (like myself) are not working because there's no work to do. I can do my job from home but if there was no furlough I probably would have been made redundant.
 
I’m probably being stupid here but doesn’t the extension of the scheme add more confusion to the waffle that came out on Sunday night? I’m furloughed so happy about it.

Why would it? If anything surely it makes it less stressful and easier, more options than just having to go straight back to work.
 
A large amount of people who aren't working (like myself) are not working because there's no work to do. I can do my job from home but if there was no furlough I probably would have been made redundant.
Same for me only I can work from home but my employer decided I couldn’t. I suppose how long you’re on the scheme will depend on government advice and employers decisions.
 
All cause deaths compared to Covid-19 on death certificate deaths continues to show the same sort of relationship during the decline phase as it did earlier.

Its completely correct to consider the indirect deaths that may be part of the picture, eg deaths caused by lockdown side-effects rather than the disease itself, when talking about excess mortality. However, when I see graph like this, my conviction that the bulk of the excess is from Covid-19 rather than indirect stuff remains intact. Whether it will be possible to spot more of what could be indirect deaths later on I cannot say, I suppose it depends what level the deaths return to once the Covid-19 deaths are no longer a very large part of the picture.

Screenshot 2020-05-12 at 13.15.03.png
 
A large amount of people who aren't working (like myself) are not working because there's no work to do. I can do my job from home but if there was no furlough I probably would have been made redundant.
I know a few furloughed people who were expecting to get made redundant when the current period came to an end so hopefully this buys a little time if nothing else.
 
I wonder if the terms of the furlough extension being more generous than expected has anything to do with the public reaction to the clusterfuck of the last 48 hours or so?

Several possibilities I suppose.

General ineptitude leading to a forced rethink.
Games between competing factions within government (some ministers want faster lifting of lockdown etc).
Behavioural unit not having a clue what the public response will be so wanting stuff like this floated to test public sentiments.
Trying to sound pro-business to keep those types onside, but mostly just for show, because they had little of substance to offer them in terms of reopening.

Aside from those possibilities, I think my favourite remains the one where they actually understand how long it is going to take to return certain aspects of life to something approaching normal. So they start pushing some of the public messages far ahead of what they actually expect to achieve. Because its still a start. Maybe only a few percent of workers respond in the desired way and start to have different attitudes about whether they should try to go back to work, but its still a start. Its just groundwork, eg for a later step where they might get some kids back to school, increasing the number of workers who might be able to return because childcare issues are reduced. The schools reopening stuff is a similar kind of thing in itself, I bet they know that only a fraction of kids will actually go back when the opportunity to do so first arises, but its still something, and they need to start getting the idea into peoples heads early.
 
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