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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

frogwoman said:
elbows I've seen some claims recently on the lines of 'herd immunity is the strategy of every government' and I don't see how that can be when countries like New Zealand and South Korea are making such an effort to stamp out the virus, unless there's something I've missed. Do you know what could be meant by that? Surely the strategy of every government isn't to make everyone catch it until there's a vaccine?

Obviously having had it does give you some partial immunity but I don't see how the aim of every government can be herd immunity lol when policies have been introduced which seem to want to get rid of it entirely.
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Who's claiming that? It's bollocks. By most estimates, we've had 50k deaths with perhaps 10 million infected here. That still leaves another 55 million of us to go. On course for the initial estimates of perhaps 300,000 dead, in fact, if we had just let it rip. That particular model by Imperial is looking more and more like the right one, sadly, and could still hold some future terrors for the world.

There's no guarantee of any vaccine, but best hope long term may be that the virus itself evolves to become less deadly, which could very well happen, as it has happened before with other viruses. If that happens, killing a few hundred thousand people to give herd immunity to one of the common cold viruses will look rather silly.
 
its lazy and irresponsible to chuck this back to the employers and workers with such wishy washy and legally opaque guidelines- expecting a firm to do its own rought and ready background and then voluntarily publish its risk assesment, rather than mandating that a location is checked independently and signed off - there is so much scope for shitey employers to skim this just to tick the boxes. utter wank . show some fucking leadership and direction you utter weapon
 
not-bono-ever said:
its lazy and irresponsible to chuck this back to the employers and workers with such wishy washy and legally opaque guidelines- expecting a firm to do its own rought and ready background and then voluntarily publish its risk assesment, rather than mandating that a location is checked independently and signed off - there is so much scope for shitey employers to skim this just to tick the boxes. utter wank . show some fucking leadership and direction you utter weapon
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I was thinking this earlier then saw Johnson mention plans to make workplaces 'Covid-secure' using HSE inspections.


However...can anyone imagine how long it will take to inspect businesses and workplaces? The announcements about going back to work are just licence to exploit and to put people's lives in danger. :mad:
 
Honestly construction sites are pretty much (in normal times) the most dangerous places to work with bosses and foremen often showing a lackadaisical approach to health and safety at best - and that is when it is in respect to measures to prevent people having accidents involving piles of bricks or a JCB.

I don't trust construction firms to suddenly exhibit a perfect record when implementing social distancing. We all know they are going to be "fuck that, get on with it". They can barely manage "try not to drop that on someone" a lot of the time.

Sorry if that is a bit cynical.
 
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frogwoman said:
elbows I've seen some claims recently on the lines of 'herd immunity is the strategy of every government' and I don't see how that can be when countries like New Zealand and South Korea are making such an effort to stamp out the virus, unless there's something I've missed. Do you know what could be meant by that? Surely the strategy of every government isn't to make everyone catch it until there's a vaccine?

Obviously having had it does give you some partial immunity but I don't see how the aim of every government can be herd immunity lol when policies have been introduced which seem to want to get rid of it entirely.
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There is probably nothing sensible in such claims that I could help explain. I'd expect any claims like that which are still being made now, to then go on to reveal some crappy agenda or worldview that explains the stance, rather than it being a fact-based stance.

Earlier on I would not quite have said this, for example there was quite a period on threads like this one where we couldnt be at all sure exactly what the UK stance really was. This was after they had u-turned from their original plan, but when they still hadnt tipped their hand about how far they wanted to go with testing, contact tracing etc in future. That moment passed some time ago though, although there are still some reasons to question the level of government commitment to certain things at times. I suppose theres always a chance that new virus facts or epidemic circumstances could eventually lead governments to a position where it might become somewhat relevant to talk about this stuff again, to have certain suspicions again. But for me at the moment it would be a waste of suspicion and my suspicion is more likely to turn towards the motives of those who want to make claims that herd immunity is the strategy of every government now. What else are they saying, are they just into being contrarian for the sake of it or is this stuff an essential ingredient for some larger story they are peddling?

If it wasnt already silly enough, the 'every government' bit is what makes me write it off so totally at this point. What possible basis is there for such a broad claim?

I'd be happy to claim that there would be a long list of governments who would have been really happy if the sort of 'dont do very much' strategy that has become known as the herd immunity approach was actually viable in this pandemic. But they mostly decided it wasnt and had to change tact pronto, and that was long enough ago now that it shouldnt have escaped anyones attention. A few countries are still giving it as much of a go as they dare. They might get away with it more than certain very worst case scenario modelling would have suggested, and I do not rule out the possibility that the rest of this year will not unfold quite as many imagine it will. But I just dont know, I take it one week at a time for this and other reasons. There is currently nothing on the radar that makes me think governments can try to revert to their old default position for flu pandemics in the next stages of this coronavirus pandemic.
 
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elbows littlebabyjesus well the guy i know whose saying this wants to lift the lockdown and that trying to restrict the spread is pointless since 'we're all going to get it anyway'.

But I've read similar stuff saying that 'every government's strategy is herd immunity' and that every government is ultimately aiming for everyone to catch covid in a controlled way, that locking down is ultimately aimed at a controlled number of people to get it rather than stopping the spread of the coronavirus altogether. And that therefore the controversy on herd immunity is misplaced. One person claiming this in an article I saw claims to be a scientist lol.

I don't really know how that can be true because South Korea and China seem to be pouring resources into making sure hardly anyone gets it, and therefore hardly anyone would be immune. Unless there's something I've missed about the argument?
 
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frogwoman said:
elbows littlebabyjesus well the guy i know whose saying this wants to lift the lockdown and that trying to restrict the spread is pointless since 'we're all going to get it anyway'.

But I've read similar stuff saying that 'every government's strategy is herd immunity' and that every government is ultimately aiming for everyone to catch covid in a controlled way, that locking down is ultimately aimed at a controlled number of people to get it rather than stopping the spread of the coronavirus altogether. And that therefore the controversy on herd immunity is misplaced. One person claiming this in an article I saw claims to be a scientist lol.

I don't really know how that can be true because South Korea and China seem to be pouring resources into making sure hardly anyone gets it, and therefore hardly anyone would be immune. Unless there's something I've missed about the argument?
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He's just a dick, and he's wrong.
 
elbows said:
Given the news about the Scottish study on how many deaths an earlier lockdown could have prevented, I thought I would quickly place it into a context I have mentioned before.

First the story about the Scottish study again:

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Earlier Scottish lockdown 'could have prevented 2,000 deaths'

Scientists suggest that earlier action could have reduced the Covid-19 death rate in Scotland by about 80%.
www.bbc.co.uk
...
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Interesting study...apart from the fact that there haven't been 2000 deaths in Scotland so far.
 
Somebody I know is getting a test today and says he thinks it’s because he reported feeling a bit unwell on that app day before yesterday. Says he’s been told to expect the result in ‘between 48 hours and 5 days”. :rolleyes:
 
frogwoman said:
. That might be including excess deaths of ppl who died without being tested tho.
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Then it wouldn't be a scientific study. (I'm not arguing with you frog, it's the bbc reporting I have problems with)

In Scotland corona is noted when someone has/had had it when they die, just the same as with any drugs/alcohol etc. found in the system when you die - it doesn't mean death by drugs/booze or corona, it's recording the patient's situation for more accurate long-term information.

The bbc regularly use this difference in recording methods to try and make Scotland look worse statistacally. England doesn't use this method afaik and only records offical cause of death.
 
Gus O'Donnell , crossbench peer and ex-cabinet secretary (i.e. top civil servant) was on Radio 4 just now. He made the point that what we should talk/should have been talking about about is physical distancing and social cohesion.

Physical distancing is a very simple and effective message. Social cohesion - listening to and looking after each other based on a respect for one another as equals - is very a laudable aim. Both are preferable to the potentially suspicious and alienating 'be alert' and 'social distancing'.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
 
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The academy chain that runs my daughter's school has sent an email saying they will try for a 'phased reopening' but they may have trouble staffing it. I'm not sure whether this means they layed half the staff off already or that they'll have trouble doing it while maintaining social distancing.

Our school is new and only has four out of seven years filled so presumably they could at least spread out across some extra classrooms. But I'm wondering what the point would be. Have they ever met a five year old?
 
maomao said:
The academy chain that runs my daughter's school has sent an email saying they will try for a 'phased reopening' but they may have trouble staffing it. I'm not sure whether this means they layed half the staff off already or that they'll have trouble doing it while maintaining social distancing.

Our school is new and only has four out of seven years filled so presumably they could at least spread out across some extra classrooms. But I'm wondering what the point would be. Have they ever met a five year old?
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Probably means lots of staff will be vulnerable or won’t come in, and they need double staff to cover twice as many classes as usual.
 
Thora said:
Probably means lots of staff will be vulnerable or won’t come in, and they need double staff to cover twice as many classes as usual.
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We're not sending her back this year anyway. Her birthday's at the end of April so I don't think they could make us till September and by the sounds of it they'll be glad of an absence.
 
I'm lucky enough to work in a university where the VC trained as a hospital specialist and used to be dean of the nursing faculty where they have been training volunteers for the Nightingale hospital - , so I will be taking my cues about life in general from there.
 
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