Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Hollis]

So if public transport is going to be rammed/reduced capacity, am I meant to spend 2 hours walking each way to work, or go and get my bike repaired...

 

[killer b]

Mass unemployment and a Great Depression

this is coming anyway tbf

 

[Orang Utan]

Kevbad the Bad can meet his son, while his son can meet Mrs Kevbad. Just, sort of all at the same time.

I should've been a lawyer.

it would be fun to Confuse-A-Cop with that argument

 

[Edie]

this is coming anyway tbf

Yes. It’s not gonna be pretty. So let’s try and minimise it, cos as of right now the NHS is coping, and with capacity. What we’ve done so far has worked. So it’s time to take the next step and cautiously move forward.

 

[elbows]

Don't think it will happen that quickly. That's when we're supposed to go into the next phase - conveniently just before the consequences of entering the current phase become apparent.

They have an increasing number of data sources for doing things like attempting to measure R.

There are various degrees of lag in various ways we have to estimate things like R, and the ones available early on were especially crude and laggy. But even some of those arent quite as laggy as some people think, and the new ones that involve regular population surveys (including surveys based on actual tests of several varieties, not just the sorts of surveys people fill in themselves based on symptoms) should have less lag still.

But there is of course the question of how much of the new data we will get to see, and in what form. It looks a bit like they only want to give up simplified indicators, but its hard to predict what data might get added to daily press conference slides. So there may be a big difference between governments private view of the situation, and what we get to see and when.

Scotland already publishes various useful bits of data every day that are helpful to understanding the picture there. For example, daily number of NHS 111 calls, daily calls to the Coronavirus Helpline (oh they actually have one of those), proper ICU numbers, daily number of ambulance attendances overall, for COVID-19 suspected attendances and also number of suspected COVID-19 patients taken to hospital every day.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

Scottish Government past data and trend charts for the daily updates on COVID-19.

www.gov.scot

eg:

 

[quimcunx]

So you’d be okay if all this was happening in a weeks time? If not, when? What conditions must be satisfied in your opinion? Cos genuinely, there isn’t a perfect solution, is there. Every decision has risks, and there’s risk associated with staying locked down too. Mass unemployment and a Great Depression will cost lives with poverty believe me.

Enough virology tests being done. Enough serology tests being done. Enough appropriate PPE and social distancing for NHS, care workers and anyone else having to work outside the home. Points systems for admitting people to hospital or getting a ventilator set at a lower level. Contact tracing happening. Quarantine for anyone entering the country. Lorry drivers not crossing borders. Actually knowing what the R0 is.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

We need to make a difficult compromise here or we’re all gonna be out of a job and with no economy, income, or food. So yes some people are gonna have to take a bit more risk. There is no “safe” option, it’s a pandemic. Agree about more practical solutions though, although they may well come. There’s been plenty of practical help offered so far.

Not some people; it will disproportionately affect the people who are already disadvantaged through low wages, cramped living conditions, precarious employment contracts and under regulated working conditions. So more difficult compromises for those already compromised.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Edie]

Not some people; it will disproportionately the people who are already disadvantaged through low wages, cramped living conditions, precarious employment contracts and under regulated wrking conditions. So more difficult compromises for those already compromised.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

Agreed. What’s the alternative?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

But it’s not unnecessary. It’s necessary. Can you not see that? We have to restart the economy.

What if the 'economy' isn't up to it?

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Edie]

Enough virology tests being done. Enough serology tests being done. Enough appropriate PPE and social distancing for NHS, care workers and anyone else having to work outside the home. Points systems for admitting people to hospital or getting a ventilator set at a lower level. Contact tracing happening. Quarantine for anyone entering the country. Lorry drivers not crossing borders. Actually knowing what the R0 is.

That’s a partial answer to the question, and I’d agree it would be good if all those things happened (with the exception of the lowering of the criteria for level 3 care, as far as I’m aware anyone who would clinically benefit from it has been given it and at no point have we not had capacity to do so. Not everyone would benefit from intensive care, it can be harmful if there’s not a realistic chance of survival to discharge?).

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Agreed. What’s the alternative?

Fundamentally change the economic settlement as was done after WW2; shift from economic liberalism to interventionist social democracy. It would at least be a step in the right direction.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Epona]

Oh really. Definitely not all though as both my ex and my current own businesses, have furloughed, and not got anything. Wages must still be paid.

All I keep hearing is "people I know who own businesses" - so what you are really saying is that you and yours need their employees to put themselves at risk to carry on making them profits so they themselves don't have to pack it in and go work in a supermarket.

(Have to say every time I hear the phrase "owns a business and may lose it" I feel less and less sympathy)

 

[Louis MacNeice]

No. And maybe this is a real opportunity for change for the better. But the reality is our Government needed a plan, today, of what is going to happen. In the context of the current global political and economic situation. And taking money from billionaires is not realistically going to happen. Although would maybe not be a bad plan all else being equal.

No they didn't need a plan today - there is nothing special about today - and they haven't given a plan today. They have blathered and obfuscated in order to deflect and protect themselves. There are other alternatives.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Edie]

Fundamentally change the economic settlement as was done after WW2; shift from economic liberalism to interventionist social democracy. It would at least be a step in the right direction.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

Economic interventionism might well be a way out. I’m afraid I don’t know enough about economics to know. You mean like the New Deal?

 

[Duncan2]

Yep-they don't really do plans-just as they left it to employers to decide whether to furlough-or not.

 

[Edie]

All I keep hearing is "people I know who own businesses" - so what you are really saying is that you and yours need their employees to put themselves at risk to carry on making them profits so they themselves don't have to pack it in and go work in a supermarket.

(Have to say every time I hear the phrase "owns a business and may lose it" I feel less and less sympathy)

I’m ignoring you I’m afraid.

 

[keybored]

Listen again. Some things have changed. For example, if you have a job that can’t be done from home you should go back to work. And the bare bones of how those changes will progress if conditions are met was outlined.

Hasn't that always been the advice?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Economic interventionism might well be a way out. I’m afraid I don’t know enough about economics to know. You mean like the New Deal?

I mean like the post war settlement across western Europe which worked for decades.

Louis MacNeice

 

[killer b]

Yes. It’s not gonna be pretty. So let’s try and minimise it, cos as of right now the NHS is coping, and with capacity. What we’ve done so far has worked. So it’s time to take the next step and cautiously move forward.

I think you're right and a lot of small businesses are on the brink right now (some large ones too tbf) - and much longer on lockdown with current government support risks huge numbers of them going under. It feels like it's that that's driving the push to reopen, not whether it's safe to do so - in which case, more wide-ranging support for businesses from the government so they can stay closed until it is safe to reopen is one option that you don't seem to be considering?

 

[Duncan2]

Hasn't that always been the advice?

That is just one example of where the message has been deliberately left open to different interpretations.

 

[MickiQ]

All I keep hearing is "people I know who own businesses" - so what you are really saying is that you and yours need their employees to put themselves at risk to carry on making them profits so they themselves don't have to pack it in and go work in a supermarket.

(Have to say every time I hear the phrase "owns a business and may lose it" I feel less and less sympathy)

my nephew works for a small manufacturing company that employs about 3 dozen people that furloughed all its staff a month ago, The Govt may be paying my nephew (who has a mortgage, a partner and a child to support) but the company is still paying out rent, bank loans etc and no money is coming in. (And they can't stop customers going elsewhere)
If it doesn't re-open soon it will probably not re-open at all. Now I have never met my nephew's boss and don't know whether he is a good employer or a bad one and whether anyone will feel sorry if his business goes bust.
But if it does my nephew (and presumably 35 other people) is in deep shit.
There are tens of thousands of companies like that employing millions of people not all business owners are Sir Philip Gropealot or the Bearded Wonder.

 

[flypanam]

Hasn't that always been the advice?

I was working from home till my employer decided I couldn’t work from home and put me on furlough. It’s not going to be a decision workers will get to make. Go in or lose the job. Is what we’re facing.

 

[Orang Utan]

I mean like the post war settlement across western Europe which worked for decades.

Louis MacNeice

A new Beveridge report?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

A new Beveridge report?

Well the five giants are still with us and are only set to get a whole lot bigger in the future.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Edie]

I think you're right and a lot of small businesses are on the brink right now (some large ones too tbf) - and much longer on lockdown with current government support risks huge numbers of them going under. It feels like it's that that's driving the push to reopen, not whether it's safe to do so - in which case, more wide-ranging support for businesses from the government so they can stay closed until it is safe to reopen is one option that you don't seem to be considering?

Can we afford that though?

 

[killer b]

Can we afford that though?

yeah.

 

[Orang Utan]

Can we afford that though?

we always seem to be able to use the magic money tree to finance wars, so why not this one?

 

[Epona]

my nephew works for a small manufacturing company that employs about 3 dozen people that furloughed all its staff a month ago, The Govt may be paying my nephew (who has a mortgage, a partner and a child to support) but the company is still paying out rent, bank loans etc and no money is coming in. If it doesn't re-open soon it will probably not re-open at all. Now I have never met my nephew's boss and don't know whether he is a good employer or a bad one and whether anyone will feel sorry if his business goes bust.
But if it does my nephew (and presumably 35 other people) is in deep shit.
There are tens of thousands of companies like that employing millions of people not all business owners are Sir Philip Gropealot or the the Bearded Wonder.

I think fundamentally I have a different view of the way society should be organised - there are tasks in society that either need doing or don't need doing and who owns the "business" is a matter down to the economic focus in society - I disagree with the notion of business owners as "job-creators" at a very fundamental level - it is in some way pertinent to this thread but possibly not the discussion that people want.

 

[Edie]

yeah.

I’m gonna need to see some working out that doesn’t involve an international revolution and redistribution of billionaires wealth. Because I’m not that keen that people starve in food bank queues whilst people discuss theoretical possibilities.

 

[Orang Utan]

A reminder for workers:

Section 44 of the Employment Rights Act 1996: you can walk out of your workplace with no repercussions or recriminations if you reasonably believe your health and safety is at risk

Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999, Regulation 3: employers have to do a risk assessment to protect your safety, and they must provide these risk assessments to you under Regulation 10

Personal Protective Equipment at Work Regulations 1992: your employer has to provide you with the right PPE