Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Claiming we are about 4 weeks behind Italy. Hmmmm.

 

[Wilf]

"Many of you will lose loved ones before their time"

Not news, but still chilling to hear.

Unbelievable that advising against cruises is the response so far. We're fucked.

Yeah, so many people were poised to head off on a cruise....

 

[elbows]

Yay, slides! Graphs! Clickers not working! It's just like being at work...

Hopefully their efforts to press the peak down will be more successful than the attempt to show the graph of that happening!

 

[Brainaddict]

I don't get why they aren't talking about at least closing universities. A much easier thing to do than schools, and a much higher risk environment.

 

[agricola]

It's weird, the whole tone of his speech was very sombre as though he was announcing catastrophic measures, but then almost nothing announced, like they wrote the speech for a series of stronger measures.

like T.May's speech that sounded very much as if she was going to resign, but didn't

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Claiming we are about 4 weeks behind Italy. Hmmmm.

How many cases did Italy have 4 weeks ago? Looks like they were around 600 about 30 days after the first case was discovered, which was the end of December.

 

[agricola]

I don't get why they aren't talking about at least closing universities. A much easier thing to do than schools, and a much higher risk environment.

Loads of them are already in financial problems; taking out a big bit of their income from rents etc and probably a chunk of the tuition fees would probably tip some of them over the edge.

 

[PD58]

For all the BBC conspiracy theorists, 'Pointless' follows the government's news briefing - you could not make it up

Edit

Looks like they have changed the schedule - sensible!

 

[Smangus]

The govt response is all about cutting losses, not prioritizing public health.

 

[elbows]

The testing regime is dead.

 

[agricola]

No testing unless you've been admitted to hospital, apparently. Can see the point of it but it is probably going to do in a load of nurses / doctors etc.

 

[Fez909]

How many cases did Italy have 4 weeks ago? Looks like they were around 600 about 30 days after the first case was discovered, which was the end of December.

None, basically

 

[elbows]

How many cases did Italy have 4 weeks ago? Looks like they were around 600 about 30 days after the first case was discovered, which was the end of December.

Other people have been crunching the numbers on this sort of thing here for some time, so they are better placed to comment on that than me. But generally people have been working with the assumption that we are a few weeks behind Italy, not 4. I dont know what my opinion will be when I have time to think about it properly myself, but provisionally 4 weeks sounds too long.

 

[Wilf]

I don't get why they aren't talking about at least closing universities. A much easier thing to do than schools, and a much higher risk environment.

It's happening by stealth. Durham has said they are finishing physical teaching a week early (moving to virtual); where I work is hurriedly putting in place plans to do the same and I've heard of similar happening elsewhere. But yeah, exactly, universities/colleges can be closed without needing parents to be off work and, depending on the course, it's relatively easy to complete the year/degree remotely.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

None, basically

Where do you get 'none' from? They had 600 cases 30 days after the end of December, i.e. at the end of January, which was almost 6 weeks ago. Edit, see planetgeli post below.

 

[agricola]

The testing regime is dead.

they really have to stop going on about number of infections / deaths then, as a statistic its meaningless now

 

[planetgeli]

None, basically

Well...

On 31 January, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Rome. A Chinese couple, originally from Wuhan, who had arrived in Italy on January 23 via Milan Malpensa Airport travelled from the airport to Verona, then to Parma, arriving in Rome on 28 January.

 

[Brainaddict]

It's happening by stealth. Durham has said they are finishing physical teaching a week early (moving to virtual); where I work is hurriedly putting in place plans to do the same and I've heard of similar happening elsewhere. But yeah, exactly, universities/colleges can be closed without needing parents to be off work and, depending on the course, it's relatively easy to complete the year/degree remotely.

Yep, this is true, the university I'm linked to is moving lectures online from 23rd March. Lecturers have been told to start prepping for that now. I suspect they've been told to do it by the government. But if they recognise the risks of universities (international students, highly mobile academics, crowded lecture theatres) it feels like they should act now rather than in two weeks.

 

[Lord Camomile]

It's happening by stealth. Durham has said they are finishing physical teaching a week early (moving to virtual); where I work is hurriedly putting in place plans to do the same and I've heard of similar happening elsewhere. But yeah, exactly, universities/colleges can be closed without needing parents to be off work and, depending on the course, it's relatively easy to complete the year/degree remotely.

Latest from our place was "business as usual", but within our department they've been asking us who has capabilities to work from home. Will be interesting, because a lot of my team are still based on the frontline so there's only so much we can do, and curious as to whether they'll actually close the libraries or those who do the frontline will still be asked to come in. I would hope they wouldn't be daft enough to do the latter, but y'never know.

 

[marty21]

Clever. I don't think there are any cases there yet.

Great contingency planning tbf

 

[elbows]

they really have to stop going on about number of infections / deaths then, as a statistic its meaningless now

I was never a huge fan of the case fatality rate stats from around the world because I had no way to judge the actual number if infections, as opposed to detected cases.

It was always likely that the testing regime would change. The same thing happened with swine flu when they judged that we had entered the epidemic phase.

I dont really know what useful stats we will get moving forwards, sadly my attention has turned to simple data about number of serious cases and deaths, and I will wait for serology surveys and other clues and hindsight about broader levels of infection. For monitoring the situation day by day, a lot of what I will want will be hospital stats, and I dont know to what extent we will get them.

 

[Fez909]

Well...

Hence the "basically".

 

[cupid_stunt]

As well as upping the testing regime for anyone with suspected cv, they should be doing random testing to get even a vague sense of community transmission (not just the extent, but also the routes and probable methods of transmission). There are clearly a minimum of several thousand infections in the UK at the moment, but Johnson et al just don't want to know. Cunts.

Are you actually watching or listening to the press conference?

Only, they have said the current number infected in the UK is likely to be between 10 & 12k.

 

[Orang Utan]

My first thought with that is 200,000 farmers coughing on each other for 4 days.

That reminded me how delighted I am that they're bringing back The Fast Show:

 

[agricola]

Are you actually watching or listening to the press conference?

Only, they have said the current number infected in the UK is likely to be between 10 & 12k.

That they said that, and then said they weren't going to give a number based on a guess was absolutely infuriating. With the current testing regime its really difficult to know how widespread it is, and with the proposed one its going to be impossible.

 

[Brainaddict]

I missed the bit where they said they're stopping testing. Why are they doing that?

 

[elbows]

That they said that, and then said they weren't going to give a number based on a guess was absolutely infuriating. With the current testing regime its really difficult to know how widespread it is, and with the proposed one its going to be impossible.

Actually they will still have methods for estimating stuff under the new regime. Whether they share the detail with us I dont know, probably they will share a number or two from it in regular updates rather than leave a void.

 

[Fez909]

I missed the bit where they said they're stopping testing. Why are they doing that?

They didn't say that. They relaxed the rules around testing that means you can now get tested without having a history of travel to an affected country or exposure to a confirmed case.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

I missed the bit where they said they're stopping testing. Why are they doing that?

There was something about moving the testing resources to hospitals so they can test the people that have symptoms, I think.

 

[elbows]

I missed the bit where they said they're stopping testing. Why are they doing that?

They want to use all their testing capacity on sick people who need hospital treatment, they dont want to use resources on people who will only have a mild illness. There will be exceptions.