Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[ricbake]

I am not making that case and I do expect the broad lockdown to have some additional effect. I am merely showing what the figures show on the basis of Lancet-published data on the delay between infections and death reports. If you think the Lancet author was wrong and infections lead to reported deaths in 3 weeks, then you are free to believe that the main lockdown caused deaths-per-day to peak. But I think the Lancet was right, because it is very hard to see how the timescales could be contracted to get from an initial infection to death being reported by the government in three weeks. And the growth in the death rate slowed considerably at the beginning of April. That must have been due to the instruction to isolate at home with symptoms in early March, tending to confirm the 4-week response time of the death rate to policy measures.

Infection rate slowed the 1st week of April, not the mortality rate...
4 weeks from lock down takes us to today. Weekend death reports have additional lag and will take at least 2 weeks to be anything like complete.
While the virus is out there and there is no vaccine, infection risk remains for anyone not isolating.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I am not making that case and I do expect the broad lockdown to have some additional effect. I am merely showing what the figures show on the basis of Lancet-published data on the delay between infections and death reports. If you think the Lancet author was wrong and infections lead to reported deaths in 3 weeks, then you are free to believe that the main lockdown caused deaths-per-day to peak. But I think the Lancet was right, because it is very hard to see how the timescales could be contracted to get from an initial infection to death being reported by the government in three weeks. And the growth in the death rate slowed considerably at the beginning of April. That must have been due to the instruction to isolate at home with symptoms in early March, tending to confirm the 4-week response time of the death rate to policy measures.

But, many thousands of deaths in care/nursing homes, and indeed in the wider community, are not included in those figures, which are mainly just deaths in hospitals.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Infection rate slowed the 1st week of April, not the mortality rate...

Daily death rate levelled off first week of April. It's been pretty much level for the last two weeks. I think it is right that the weak measures in place in the two weeks before lockdown probably did have an effect.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But, many thousands of deaths in care/nursing homes, and indeed in the wider community, are not included in those figures, which are mainly just deaths in hospitals.

afaik, it's only deaths in hospitals in those figures at them moment, not just mainly. We should still be able to spot trends, though. eg the fact that the numbers in hospital with c19 are finally falling is indicative of a reduction in wider infection rates over the past two to three weeks.

 

[Wilf]

Tbf, that really is superb.

You are quite the wordsmith and I applaud this post.

Oh, lord, you've got yourself a little friend now.

 

[existentialist]

The link to the BBC News website publication of the 4-week delay is in my post. The BBC's graph cites "The Lancet, PHE" as their source.

I think you might have to do slightly better than that. I don't know how much of this thread you've read before you posted, but you will note that there are one or two contributors whose attitude towards attribution and data could be quite reasonably described as "rigorous, and then some". They're probably worth a careful read. Word to the wise taps nose

 

[2hats]

The link to the BBC News website publication of the 4-week delay is in my post. The BBC's graph cites "The Lancet, PHE" as their source.

Methinks you need to look up the definitions of cite and credit.

The chart you proffer up is a BBC graphic of an "example" case. It's not from a Lancet paper which isn't even cited properly in the BBC piece you link to.

A study published in the Lancet (reported here: When will we know if the UK lockdown is working?) shows that there is a 4-week delay between a fatal infection and publication of the resultant fatality as a hospital death (see attached graph).

The most relevant study in The Lancet (DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7) indicates a "mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2)". Add on to that varying times for reporting, and then incubation being anything from 1-5, or even up to 14 days, and you have too broad a peak to draw conclusions.

 

[PD58]

Not relevant to the virus discussion but it needs to be said; having worked in education for 40 years he is the worst Secretary of State in this time, who appointed him...embarrassing.

 

[treelover]

I applied for a European Health Card last year, within 2 weeks i had a DlA to PIP form, co-incidence, the application form said it would share, I have family senior in the Dept, who tell me all govt depts now share, the DWP at their Long Benton Labs are developing bots to do this, think cummings but more, sharing is the holy grail now.

I wonder how many of its supporters, of the app, have things to be concerned about, for many disabled and sick people it can be a matter of life and death, but then social security just hasn't been a priority for some time with them.

 

[Maltin]

Methinks you need to look up the definitions of cite and credit.

The chart you proffer up is a BBC graphic of an "example" case. It's not from the Lancet paper which isn't even cited properly in the BBC piece you link to.

The most relevant study in The Lancet (DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7) indicates a "mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2)". Add on to that varying times for reporting, and then incubation being anything from 1-5, or even up to 14 days, and you have too broad a peak to draw conclusions.

Interesting with the 17.8 days mean duration per their study. The peak daily reported deaths so far in Italy, UK and Spain came 16, 17 and 18 days respectively after their lockdowns, so fairly close to their figures. As you say, reporting times have an impact on when the peaks actually were and obviously the peak may be in the future too when things start to open up again.

 

[treelover]

Not relevant to the virus discussion but it needs to be said; having worked in education for 40 years he is the worst Secrretary of State in this time, who i appointed him...embarrassing.

You appointed him?

 

[kalidarkone]

'If I happened to be working on the frontline, today...I would need to understand the agreed guidance on PPE...'
'It's actually quite complex, which is why as a professional there is a responsibilty on me to understand that.'... more guilt trips around reusing PPE

She's NOT working on the fucking frontline though, is she?

Shameless.

And it's not that complex....just the guidance is bullshit. If there was an accessible and unlimited supply of ppe the guidance would be different.

 

[Azrael]

'If I happened to be working on the frontline, today...I would need to understand the agreed guidance on PPE...'
'It's actually quite complex, which is why as a professional there is a responsibilty on me to understand that.'... more guilt trips around reusing PPE

She's NOT working on the fucking frontline though, is she?

Shameless.

We're also an "international exemplar" of preparedness, and apparently our testing policy has been correct all along.

Harries has always been one of the biggest roadblocks to suppressing the coronavirus via community testing and tracing, and infuriating to see she's not accepted her earlier errors. Even her boss and Vallance have been less stubborn. How a medical doctor formed these egregiously wrongheaded views is a question for an inquiry/trial/inquisition: crucial now is that she's overruled once and for all, because she's clearly dug deep into her foxhole and isn't budging.

After today's comments, if the GMC don't step in, they're enabling this disaster.

 

[ice-is-forming]

Tbf, that really is superb.

You are quite the wordsmith and I applaud this post.

I reported it..

"some feminist drudge, no man would afford a second glance to"

 

[Azrael]

And it's not that complex....just the guidance is bullshit. If there was an accessible and unlimited supply of ppe the guidance would be different.

Worse, this has been admitted!

Harries' string of disastrous misjudgments go beyond merely shilling for the government. She goes further than ministers, and even the original advocates of "herd immunity" have shown more willingness to consider alternatives.

Her M.D. infuses what she says with a dangerous level of authority. If the medical profession's regulators don't step in, it could sway ministers who'd started edging towards improved policy, and lead to untold disaster.

 

[sheothebudworths]

But

afaik, it's only deaths in hospitals in those figures at them moment, not just mainly. We should still be able to spot trends, though. eg the fact that the numbers in hospital with c19 are finally falling is indicative of a reduction in wider infection rates over the past two to three weeks.

But we do also have to account for the fact that there is also, apparently, a drop downwards in people accessing emergency health care in general (where cases may or may not be covid-19 related) out of fear, I think?
Along with that, that the situation in care homes follows that, too, when we have no numbers to illustrate the growth in cases and/or deaths there, while care homes have largely been left to manage this alone.
Isn't it right that lockdown may have offered a decrease in cases and deaths in wider society but that it also ignores lots of others, when we have such shit data on that (the average deaths, over time, however they are currently recorded, seeming to be more important in terms of all of that).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But


But we do also have to account for the fact that there is also, apparently, a drop downwards in people accessing emergency health care in general (where cases may or may not be covid-19 related) out of fear, I think?
Along with that, that the situation in care homes follows that, too, when we have no numbers to illustrate the growth in cases and/or deaths there, while care homes have largely been left to manage this alone.
Isn't it right that lockdown may have offered a decrease in cases and deaths in wider society but that it also ignores lots of others, when we have such shit data on that (the average deaths, over time, however they are currently recorded, seeming to be more important in terms of all of that).

Yeah, there's all kinds of stuff to account for. Some of it no doubt won't be accounted for a long time yet. All we can know is that the reality is worse than the stated figures.

But those figures are all we have to go on atm, and I don't see a reason why the general shape of the official figures won't reflect the general shape of the infection's progress.

I agree with you about non-c19 deaths and general hardship, though. I know from the situation of someone close to me that social services have ground to a halt - people aren't getting emergency housing, for instance. Not to mention all the other operations put on hold. There is a lot of collateral damage going on.

 

[Weller]

The whole tone is patronizing as fuck, Williamson is terrible.

Hes my local MP where I now live in Souths Staffs they call him Alan Partridge or Private Pike here
Ive seen him 3 times local events hes utterly useless at speaking we did have a few funny videos of him wandering around looking at potholes with 3 big security chaps couple of years back they were carrying buckets with a few tools in which included a large tin of wd40 spray paint and some motor oil for some reason they didnt seem to have done anything this was before he got sacked from defense and dont see much of him now unless he visits his office which used to be the police head quarters for donkeys years until he moved in and sent them to offices in the council head quarters almost everyone Ive spoke to here is agreed that he clueless
He moved here from Yorkshire apparently as it is an extremely safe tory seat so is bound to remain he talks about his pet tarantula a lot and posts this sort of stuff on local groups

I think its worth noting that the world cup was in summer and he appeared to have a cosy blanket ready on his chair and strategically placed Historically local beers including the Speckled Hen which is named after the shutdown MG Rover Factory where many worked and the Staffordshire Marstons pedigree yeah hes a bit of a cockwomble

 

[FridgeMagnet]

''Politically Correct'' apparatchiks... Orwellian agendas... feminist drudge, no man would afford a second glance to...

Yeah I can't see this working out for any of us, really.

 

[sheothebudworths]

And it's not that complex....just the guidance is bullshit. If there was an accessible and unlimited supply of ppe the guidance would be different.

We're also an "international exemplar" of preparedness, and apparently our testing policy has been correct all along.

Harries has always been one of the biggest roadblocks to suppressing the coronavirus via community testing and tracing, and infuriating to see she's not accepted her earlier errors. Even her boss and Vallance have been less stubborn. How a medical doctor formed these egregiously wrongheaded views is a question for an inquiry/trial/inquisition: crucial now is that she's overruled once and for all, because she's clearly dug deep into her foxhole and isn't budging.

After today's comments, if the GMC don't step in, they're enabling this disaster.

Yep, to be clear - I understand how massively goalposts have been moved in the changing explanations of how PPE is supposed to be used and also how she's manipulating our 'preparedness' measures, based on plans and stocks put in place before austerity, over ten years ago, before those stocks were massively diminished by the huge shortages in funding, allowing them to go out of date and/or not be replenished.
It's equivalent to me, on an individual scale (they like that, don't they) telling my children I have been well prepared for this by having a head of broccoli in the fridge for the last ten years.

Solid lies. Big, sad faces - soft and understanding, or stark/warning voices, to 'the viewers' (I find it interesting how they each relate to 'us' very differently - also how different ministers are rolled out and/or kept back for a time, after they always fuck up) - it's always briefing hour rage for me.

 

[Azrael]

Loathsome as they are, I can endure the ministers, I expect them to BS their way through it, and they deploy the usual vague sloganeering to duck questions.

The doctors are another league of danger. I've had people who sneer at ministers tell me how much they like the medics (and a look on Twitter confirms that Harries' fanclub -- invariably laypeople -- is undented by the latest briefing). They sound so sure and authoritative. It's dangerous beyond the telling of it, and can only be stopped if the GMC or their college sets aside procedure and steps in before they take the county down another ruinous path.

 

[PD58]

Hes my local MP where I now live in Souths Staffs they call him Alan Partridge or Private Pike here
Ive seen him 3 times local events hes utterly useless at speaking we did have a few funny videos of him wandering around looking at potholes with 3 big security chaps couple of years back they were carrying buckets with a few tools in which included a large tin of wd40 spray paint and some motor oil for some reason they didnt seem to have done anything this was before he got sacked from defense and dont see much of him now unless he visits his office which used to be the police head quarters for donkeys years until he moved in and sent them to offices in the council head quarters almost everyone Ive spoke to here is agreed that he clueless
He moved here from Yorkshire apparently as it is an extremely safe tory seat so is bound to remain he talks about his pet tarantula a lot and posts this sort of stuff on local groups

I think its worth noting that the world cup was in summer and he appeared to have a cosy blanket ready on his chair and strategically placed Historically local beers including the Speckled Hen which is named after the shutdown MG Rover Factory where many worked and the Staffordshire Marstons pedigree yeah hes a bit of a cockwomble

I don't see him ever featuring on any lists of the 1,000,000 greatest Yorkshire folk....

 

[two sheds]

Hes my local MP where I now live in Souths Staffs they call him Alan Partridge or Private Pike here
Ive seen him 3 times local events hes utterly useless at speaking we did have a few funny videos of him wandering around looking at potholes with 3 big security chaps couple of years back they were carrying buckets with a few tools in which included a large tin of wd40 spray paint and some motor oil for some reason they didnt seem to have done anything this was before he got sacked from defense and dont see much of him now unless he visits his office which used to be the police head quarters for donkeys years until he moved in and sent them to offices in the council head quarters almost everyone Ive spoke to here is agreed that he clueless
He moved here from Yorkshire apparently as it is an extremely safe tory seat so is bound to remain he talks about his pet tarantula a lot and posts this sort of stuff on local groups

I think its worth noting that the world cup was in summer and he appeared to have a cosy blanket ready on his chair and strategically placed Historically local beers including the Speckled Hen which is named after the shutdown MG Rover Factory where many worked and the Staffordshire Marstons pedigree yeah hes a bit of a cockwomble



View attachment 207741

His dog loves him though ((( Gavin)))

 

[SheilaNaGig]

When people tell you that something is "complicated in terms of the science", they're using science's supposed complexity to cloud the issue. There's always a way to explain the science clearly, provided there's a willingness to do so, and a willingness to listen when they do. Just look at Angela Merkel's clear, unambiguous setting out of the realities as an example.

This shower are more than happy to hide behind the "complicated...science", because it suits their laissez-faire agenda very nicely to do so.

It’s also very patronising and belittling: to assume that no one listening knows eneoug( to know better.

 

[PD58]

This is a sobering read....with no answers

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

 

[Weller]

I don't see him ever featuring on any lists of the 1,000,000 greatest Yorkshire folk....

forgot about this "Putin shut up " when he was defense secretary maybe we should just tell the virus to go away and shut up too

 

[Sasaferrato]

The Stones were remarkably prescient when they recorded this in 1972.



When your spine is cracking and your hands, they shake
Heart is bursting and your butt's gonna break
Woman's cussing, you can hear her scream
Feel like murder in the first degree
Ain't nobody slowing down no way
Everybody's stepping on their accelerator
Don't matter where you are
Everybody's gonna need a ventilator
When you're trapped and circled with no second chances
Code of living is your gun in hand
Can't be browed by beating, can't be cowed by words
Messed by cheating, ain't gonna ever learn
Everybody walking 'round
Everybody trying to step on their Creator
Don't matter where you are, everybody, everybody gonna
Need some kind of ventilator, some kind of ventilator
Come down and get it
What you gonna do about it, what you gonna do?
What you gonna do about it, what you gonna do?
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it

 

[Steel Icarus]

Coronavirus memes thread thataway ------------------>

 

[LDC]

The Stones were remarkably prescient when they recorded this in 1972.



When your spine is cracking and your hands, they shake
Heart is bursting and your butt's gonna break
Woman's cussing, you can hear her scream
Feel like murder in the first degree
Ain't nobody slowing down no way
Everybody's stepping on their accelerator
Don't matter where you are
Everybody's gonna need a ventilator
When you're trapped and circled with no second chances
Code of living is your gun in hand
Can't be browed by beating, can't be cowed by words
Messed by cheating, ain't gonna ever learn
Everybody walking 'round
Everybody trying to step on their Creator
Don't matter where you are, everybody, everybody gonna
Need some kind of ventilator, some kind of ventilator
Come down and get it
What you gonna do about it, what you gonna do?
What you gonna do about it, what you gonna do?
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it
Gonna fight it, gonna fight it

FFS, not news and not even interesting non-news.

 

[treelover]

Disabled people left off coronavirus vulnerable list go without food

Large numbers excluded from government’s food delivery scheme due to strict criteria

www.theguardian.com

not good

“We’re hearing from people that their GP won’t put them on the list after they tried to self-register as MND isn’t listed,” said Susie Rabin, the head of policy and campaigns for the MND Association. “I’ve seen responses from MPs to people saying that not everyone with MND needs to be in the list as ‘some may have a mild form’. I’ve never seen a mild form of a terminal illness.”

FFS, MND is horrendous.