Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[weltweit]

UK NO 10 press briefing 18/04/2020

888 UK fatalities since yesterday

 

[teqniq]

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[editor]

You fucking greedy WANKERS

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[elbows]

UK NO 10 press briefing 18/04/2020

888 UK fatalities since yesterday

Reported since yesterday. 784 of them were in hospitals in England. And these are the dates that the reported England hospital deaths in todays number actually happened on:


from Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

You can probably see why I am hesitant to take even the hospital death numbers at face value until some weeks have passed to allow reporting delays to have much less impact.

So far, the peak rate of hospital Covid-19 deaths in England is the 8th April with 799 deaths. No other day is close yet, the nearest currently being the day before with 729. These numbers should be expected to increase a bit too.

In terms of ONS data and the equivalents for Scotland and Northern Ireland, where non-hospital deaths are included, I cannot see beyond April 3rd with any clarity yet. So I shall wait till the next weeks release of data from them before making any posts going into detail about that side of the picture.

 

[weltweit]

Reported since yesterday. 784 of them were in hospitals in England. And these are the dates that the reported England hospital deaths in todays number actually happened on:

As presumably opposed to figures from England Wales & N Ireland

You can probably see why I am hesitant to take even the hospital death numbers at face value until some weeks have passed to allow reporting delays to have much less impact.

elbows I am not completely clear what the numbers in the table you posted represent?

 

[elbows]

elbows I am not completely clear what the numbers in the table you posted represent?

The numbers given each day are not simply the deaths that happened in hospital the day before. They are a bunch of deaths over a much longer period of time. The table I posted shows when all the England deaths announced today actually happened. 150 of them happened yesterday, 320 the day before that, etc. So it requires numerous days of reported deaths to be rearranged by actual date of death, in order to work out how many people died in hospital on a particular day.

I am working on a graph to show this in a different way, but it is not ready yet and I'm supposed to be taking a break (but am so far mostly failing).

 

[Chilli.s]

Pretty much as suspected, it's all about protecting capital and fuck the ordinary people:

damning indeed

 

[two sheds]

funny all that seemed to go out the window when he actually got it

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This link gives daily deaths in England, by day.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

It's very certainly levelled out over the last two weeks, fluctuating between 600 and 800, but shows little sign of going down yet.

ETA: Combining this with falling hospital occupancy levels, I think we can say with some confidence that we are at 'peak death' now, and reached it a while ago. Problem is that 'peak death' appears to last for a long period of time, and not just here. However, that model that predicted the UK's peak death to reach 3,000 was way, way off. About as bad as Italy, it is, as it looked like it would be.

 

[weltweit]

The numbers given each day are not simply the deaths that happened in hospital the day before. They are a bunch of deaths over a much longer period of time. The table I posted shows when all the England deaths announced today actually happened. 150 of them happened yesterday, 320 the day before that, etc. So it requires numerous days of reported deaths to be rearranged by actual date of death, in order to work out how many people died in hospital on a particular day.

so I am trying to understand..
You aren't saying the total number of deaths in hospital yesterday is 150?
You are saying 150 is all they have reported for yesterday so far - but that this will increase in coming days as more deaths for yesterday are reported?

So the 880 deaths reported for the last 24 hours, is deaths reported, not deaths that actually took place yesterday ..

How much of a difference is there between reported death per day and actual deaths on the day?

I am working on a graph to show this in a different way, but it is not ready yet and I'm supposed to be taking a break (but am so far mostly failing).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So the 880 deaths reported for the last 24 hours, is deaths reported, not deaths that actually took place yesterday ..

Yes. That. Follow my link and there's a spreadsheet there with daily deaths by day of death rather than day of report. Out of yesterday's number, only 150 (in England) actually died yesterday. One of the reasons I suspected the lower figures last weekend - the last few days' high numbers are in large part a result of catching up on Easter weekend.

Generally, reports are delayed by the weekend and even longer by a bank holiday, but some deaths are only reported weeks later.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So the 880 deaths reported for the last 24 hours, is deaths reported, not deaths that actually took place yesterday ..

Yes, that has always been the case.

 

[2hats]

It's very certainly levelled out over the last two weeks, fluctuating between 600 and 800, but shows little sign of going down yet.

Looking at the latest output of Imperial's Bayesian model, based on current inputs one might (at the 95% credible interval) begin to notice some dip in death figures by Tuesday this coming week (maybe clearer by Thursday considering data lag over the weekend).

So the 880 deaths reported for the last 24 hours, is deaths reported, not deaths that actually took place yesterday ..

The government briefing daily figures are, as has been explained several times, misleading. The ONS figures are correctly binned (well, eventually over time +/- some small, inevitable errors).

 

[tim]

Not having perused a newspaper since the demise of Auberon Waugh in 2001, or viewed a television set since the 2005 Oval Test Match, I can't help but wonder if the overwhelming urge for the now, not so huddled, masses to stock up on toilet paper was a direct result of their watching too much Sky news which culminated in giving them the shits.

There are a litany of conflicting views and differing death rate statistics relating to the current Coronavirus outbreak, with the only matter so called experts agreeing upon is that the casualties of the effects will far exceed those of the cause. During this recent mass hysteria generated by the media, has there been any mention of the circa 30,000 annual winter deaths incurred by elderly UK citizens as a direct result of hyper inflated heating costs, the aforementioned not being inclusive of those having died of normal common colds.

As I understand the current rules of engagement mandated by the gov. people should distance themselves from others by 2 meters. However, I have noticed that people are exaggeratedly crossing the street when approaching each other, or walking in the middle of the road to avoid potential contact. Is this an additional media recommendation, or is it merely a further self preservation precaution being practised as a result of fear being instilled by the aforementioned.

I actually find this latter practice to be a tad ironic, particularly in the vein that people are normally so fixated talking puerile detritus on their phones , they don't see a foot in front of them, thereby causing one to take evasive action to avoid bumping into them. Perhaps the old adage ''Every cloud has a silver lining'' has some merit after all.

I'd give you as wide a berth as possible, in the hope that one of those clouds also had a silver lightening bolt that might take you out. The last thing this place needs is a wannabe Auberon Waugh fogeying up the threads.

 

[two sheds]

I'd give you as wide a berth as possible, in the hope that one of those clouds also had a silver lightening bolt that might take you out. The last thing this place needs is a wannabe Auberon Waugh fogeying up the threads.

I tried to run the first paragraph of Diatribe's original text through a verbose generator

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but it just hung up and broke it

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I tried to run the first paragraph of Diatribe's original text through a verbose generator

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but it just hung up and broke it

Diatribe is a fine example of that particular kind of troll that is really very thick but genuinely thinks it is clever. It doesn't realise that its stupidity is exposed by every sentence of every post.

 

[andysays]

...Combining this with falling hospital occupancy levels, I think we can say with some confidence that we are at 'peak death' now, and reached it a while ago. Problem is that 'peak death' appears to last for a long period of time, and not just here. However, that model that predicted the UK's peak death to reach 3,000 was way, way off. About as bad as Italy, it is, as it looked like it would be.

More of a plateau than a peak then

 

[littlebabyjesus]

More of a plateau than a peak then

Yeah. It's a pattern repeating everywhere, pretty much. As all the other indicators get better, new deaths stays at a high level for quite a stubbornly long period.

It's a flat-topped peak, but it should still be a peak.

 

[two sheds]

Diatribe is a fine example of that particular kind of troll that is really very thick but genuinely thinks it is clever. It doesn't realise that its stupidity is exposed by every sentence of every post.

I edit and there you want to get across the most information you can in the fewest words. Not the least information in the most words .

Eta: I think that's why I find his style so annoying

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

More of a plateau than a peak then

Yeah, it's more Table Mountain than Matterhorn. I expect there'll be a few more plateaus/peaks before this is over though.

 

[elbows]

My graph is ready.

So, as usual, this is only for hospital deaths in England because I dont have the right data to do exactly this for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland at the moment.

So the dates on the x axis are the actual date of death. The colours are the date that the death was reported to us, the public, as part of the daily number. So the light purple bars on the far right of the graph are from the daily number that was given today. And the nearer to that right side of the graph we get, the more there is missing data that we wont get for a number of days (so be careful reading too much into the shape of the graph for the last ~5 days).


As I've said before, dont ask me what the story is with the end of March. I can only work with the data they provide, I dont know what mistakes they made along the way, and that period also coincided with when they started offering the data in 'actual date of death' form.

 

[kazza007]

How long is the peak death rate supposed to last given we've been lockdown for nearly a month? The mortality rate appears to be not dropping in the overall picture.

 

[Part-timah]

Another three weeks, absolute minimum

If the Imperial study is anything to go by there will be periods of relaxation followed by lockdowns. This may go on for many, many months.

 

[elbows]

How long is the peak death rate supposed to last given we've been lockdown for nearly a month? The mortality rate appears to be not dropping in the overall picture.

I dont have 'actual date of death' graphs for key countries like Italy and Spain, so I will have to use 'deaths reported per day' instead. If you compare those to the UK equivalent, say from a site like worldometer, then a picture emerges, one where we probably shouldnt expect number of deaths to decline really quickly.

 

[teqniq]

This guy pulls no punches

 

[editor]

Thanks for your help in keeping us all updated and making sense of the stats
elbows

 

[editor]

Here's some real stupidity from Lambeth

Campaigners call for a halt to Olive Morris House demolition, citing safety fears and lack of consultation

Lambeth Council have been big on their coronavirus message: stay at home, save lives, protect the NHS. When people visited Brockwell Park, the council shut it claiming park users weren’t social di…

www.brixtonbuzz.com

 

[two sheds]

This guy pulls no punches

Not sure he'll have a job for much longer

 

[teqniq]

Not sure he'll have a job for much longer

Yes, i wondered that too.

 

[teqniq]