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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Tesco at the weekend, the girl didn't even have a mask, just gloves but there was a plastic screen separating her and the customers.
No plastics screens have made it up to the chain stores here at all, just lines that are impossible not to cross when paying etc. The local shops and pharmacy though have a 2 or 1 customer only policy, garages and pharmacy are entirely shut so customers can only come in the door way- most had this in place two weeks ago.
 
Im not sure the correlation is relevant. There could be numerous common factors between these countries, from genetics to experience with SARS. Also note the high mask wearing in HK yet thr low mask wearing in Singapore etc.
Yeah, and there are a lot of contradictory opinions out there. Some of the more consistent opinions relate to the proper wearing of masks and the nullifying of their benefit to you if you don't use them correctly, while even a badly worn mask may protect others from you somewhat by intercepting at least some of your breath. Singapore is currrently reversing its advice, but the general thrust of its previous advice seemed about right to me - unless you're going to follow very strict procedures, don't think of a mask when you're out and about as protecting you from others, but rather as protecting others from you.
 
I just noticed this (loathe as I am to link to this twitter account, but the points about masks made by Openshaw are relevant):

Watching the video, all makes sense to me. I’m wondering about the dose of the virus too, does this determine how severe your symptoms are? I think the lack of availability is the biggest problem really.... if it wasn’t, arguments like “only professionals can use them properly” wouldn’t hold water if these guidelines were widely available. Lower skilled workers will have to use them too, myself included- when we get them, if we get them :mad:
 
Pretty grim graph from the NRS figures released today. Nicola Sturgeon has been at pains in every press conference I've watched to say the figures they're announcing every day are lower than the true figures because of the way deaths are registered but this is stark.

EVFF0VlXQAIocPP.jpeg
 
My tesco is all screened up, no gloves on anyone tho. They've just introduced one way aisles as well, tho no one notices until they're at least half way round and the staff dont mention it at all

I find that touch screens don't react when I'm wearing gloves. Might that be why checkout staff aren't wearing them?
 
Pretty grim graph from the NRS figures released today. Nicola Sturgeon has been at pains in every press conference I've watched to say the figures they're announcing every day are lower than the true figures because of the way deaths are registered but this is stark.

Thanks for the heads up about that.


Screenshot 2020-04-08 at 13.04.45.png
 
oh. Police and councils all over are encouraging us to report on our neighbours. :facepalm:
Probably mostly being done to reduce the amount of arseholes phoning 999 to because the woman across the road has gone to the shop again.
eg)
 
Their site shows yesterday's 0900 figures it's 30 hours on from that.

The dashboard? I dont use it. Depending on which figures you want, there is usually not much point looking anywhere till 2pm.

A bit more on the corrected hospital data for england, comparing yesterday to today.

So yesterday the corrected data gave this:

Fixed-070420.png
Now with the deaths that have been reported and added to the data today, it looks like this:

Fixed-080420.png
Because the deaths in England that were announced today were actually distributed across time like this:

Diff-2nd.png
So a similar story to yesterdays update really - the deaths announced on a day are actually a fraction of the deaths that happened the day previously, lots of deaths from the several days prior to that, and still a small quantity of much earlier deaths, in this case including a few additional hospital deaths as far back as March 4th-6th.
 
I think today's figure is 896, FWIW.
I've barely followed the stuff on the different ways Corvid deaths are counted, the non-inclusion of care home deaths etc. However, in broad brush strokes does this mean we can say over/well over 1000 people a day have been dying from the virus all in for the last week or 10 days? And maybe even more if we include those with the virus but getting something else as cause of death on the death certificate?

Edit: I really should read the stuff that's even on this page, from elbows. :oops: But still the question stands, are we able to make a 'valid generalisation' as to how many might be dying each day?
 
I've barely followed the stuff on the different ways Corvid deaths are counted, the non-inclusion of care home deaths etc. However, in broad brush strokes does this mean we can say over/well over 1000 people a day have been dying from the virus all in for the last week or 10 days? And maybe even more if we include those with the virus but getting something else as cause of death on the death certificate?

Edit: I really should read the stuff that's even on this page, from elbows. :oops: But still the question stands, are we able to make a 'valid generalisation' as to how many might be dying each day?

The ONS data lags even further behind than the hospital data, which is why I've only focussed on the hospital data so far. I need at least one more week before the ONS stuff will begin to be ripe enough to have a guesstimate, and it will still be firmly stuck in the past rather than the current rate. Although I will look at it later just in case I can make something of what is already available.

As my graphs show, for English hospital deaths I do not yet have the data to say that we have reached 600 deaths per day. But over the coming days I wont be surprised if further data pushes some days rate over 600. But that is only England, I havent been able to do exactly the same thing for Wales or Scotland or Northern Ireland yet. And as I said, I dont have a guesstimate for community deaths in mind.
 
The ONS data lags even further behind than the hospital data, which is why I've only focussed on the hospital data so far. I need at least one more week before the ONS stuff will begin to be ripe enough to have a guesstimate, and it will still be firmly stuck in the past rather than the current rate. Although I will look at it later just in case I can make something of what is already available.

As my graphs show, for English hospital deaths I do not yet have the data to say that we have reached 600 deaths per day. But over the coming days I wont be surprised if further data pushes some days rate over 600. But that is only England, I havent been able to do exactly the same thing for Wales or Scotland or Northern Ireland yet. And as I said, I dont have a guesstimate for community deaths in mind.
Ta, appreciated. Part of my interest is just a kind of 'how should we be thinking about it', but its also a before and after effect. Before the outbreak it would have been staggering to think that perhaps 20,000 people might die, particularly at the point where johnson started off singing happy birthday and doing just about zilch in terms of testing and contact tracing. We're now in the middle of it and there's relatively little sign that there's any widespread criticism of the government, though that's understandable as people have yet to really focus on the issue of blame and information is still rather fragmented. Also of course people are more worried about sorting their shop for the week or symptoms that a relative might have. But afterwards there will be a battle for the narrative. That won't be defined by the figures but the figures will be an important part of it.
 
There will be a massive political reckoning after this I think when people have had time to recover and think.
 
Ta, appreciated. Part of my interest is just a kind of 'how should we be thinking about it', but its also a before and after effect. Before the outbreak it would have been staggering to think that perhaps 20,000 people might die, particularly at the point where johnson started off singing happy birthday and doing just about zilch in terms of testing and contact tracing. We're now in the middle of it and there's relatively little sign that there's any widespread criticism of the government, though that's understandable as people have yet to really focus on the issue of blame and information is still rather fragmented. Also of course people are more worried about sorting their shop for the week or symptoms that a relative might have. But afterwards there will be a battle for the narrative. That won't be defined by the figures but the figures will be an important part of it.
tbh 'about the same as Italy' doesn't even feel like a bad result from where we were. Elbows' stats are consistent with that. Three weeks ago, as we tracked Italy day-for-day, I was struggling to think of reasons why we might not continue to track them. Still am.

By the end of this, it is likely that there will be a very stark compare and contrast between the UK (and others) and the likes of Germany, Austria and even Switzerland. Problem there may be that the UK won't be the only 'Italy' by a long chalk. The reckoning should be that the UK had two weeks on Italy and still did as badly. But that will be the reckoning in a lot of places.
 
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