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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

zahir said:
www.theguardian.com

Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study

IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Hmmm. This makes no sense at all. Ok setting aside the UK stats, the rest of their figures don't make any sense.

Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date [4 August], Italy 20,300 and France 15,058.
Click to expand...

Now even just taking the reported figures, which will go up for similar reasons why the UK's current figures will go up, Spain currently stands at 14,000 with 550 today, Italy at 17,000 with 600 today, France 10,000 with 1,400 today. Will they have just 6,000, 3,000 and 5,000 more deaths respectively on current trends?

These figures are obviously way out. :confused:

Sorry, the more I look at that the more I'm scratching my head. The Guardian has basically just chosen to publish something that is obviously utter drivel. France will pass its '4 August' figure by the end of the week. I had to check the date - yes, they published that today. Fuck me.
 
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David Clapson said:
Do the models assume that everyone will be exposed to the virus before a vaccine is found?
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Yes, but not that many of the models we are currently hearing about run off that far into the future anyway. And even if they do, they try to take account of the lockdowns etc that countries have done, so they are tending to focus on the upcoming period and this first peak in countries, and the subsequent decline we expect to see because of lockdown. The models that ran much further into the future were mostly used to estimate total possible deaths if countries did nothing or did much less than full lockdowns. Some were done to try to estimate what might happen over the medium term if we switch lockdown on and off at certain times, or if we only have one lockdown and then relaxed things totally, how a 2nd wave could emerge. The one we are currently talking about runs up to August but seems to be based on the idea that the deaths per day will fall to a trickle fairly quickly.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Hmmm. This makes no sense at all. Ok setting aside the UK stats, the rest of their figures don't make any sense.



Now even just taking the reported figures, which will go up for similar reasons why the UK's current figures will go up, Spain currently stands at 14,000 with 550 today, Italy at 17,000 with 600 today, France 10,000 with 1,400 today. Will they have just 6,000, 3,000 and 5,000 more deaths respectively on current trends?

These figures are obviously way out. :confused:

Sorry, the more I look at that the more I'm scratching my head. The Guardian has basically just chosen to publish something that is obviously utter drivel. France will pass its '4 August' figure by the end of the week. I had to check the date - yes, they published that today. Fuck me.
Click to expand...

I've not had time to look, but you might be able to find people online moaning about how previous real data for the USA quickly required them to adjust their model, because the daily death rate in the USA exceeded their maximum predicted range on a particular day.

When criticising this model, we do have to consider the data they are feeding into it. For example the figures you are using for deaths in France that have already been reported, are not the same as theirs. Theirs lags behind and contains numbers each day that I am not familiar with, I dont know where they got them from. They might be better than my numbers for all I know. Or they might be worse. And Frances daily numbers were complicated recently by the arrival in the daily figures of large amounts of deaths in care homes being reported in very large batches. If they have some data that assigns deaths in France to the proper date, like I was going on about all day in regards the NHS England numbers, then I would have at least one reason to be confident about their stuff.

I'll keep looking at their model to see how much they have to correct it, not sure which countries I will pick to keep up with yet. Even if they are way off with the actual numbers, I will be interested to see if their dates of predicted peaks in various countries are ever close to the mark.
 
elbows said:
I've not had time to look, but you might be able to find people online moaning about how previous real data for the USA quickly required them to adjust their model, because the daily death rate in the USA exceeded their maximum predicted range on a particular day.

When criticising this model, we do have to consider the data they are feeding into it. For example the figures you are using for deaths in France that have already been reported, are not the same as theirs. Theirs lags behind and contains numbers each day that I am not familiar with, I dont know where they got them from. They might be better than my numbers for all I know. Or they might be worse. And Frances daily numbers were complicated recently by the arrival in the daily figures of large amounts of deaths in care homes being reported in very large batches. If they have some data that assigns deaths in France to the proper date, like I was going on about all day in regards the NHS England numbers, then I would have at least one reason to be confident about their stuff.

I'll keep looking at their model to see how much they have to correct it, not sure which countries I will pick to keep up with yet. Even if they are way off with the actual numbers, I will be interested to see if their dates of predicted peaks in various countries are ever close to the mark.
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Sure but even with all those caveats, they still are way off. Just those people who are seriously ill right now and are going to die will pretty much make up those totals. More than 6,000 in intensive care in Spain right now, for instance. Sadly they can't even be close to right. The reporter should have picked up on that before publishing it.

Even on the most optimistic ideas about where transmission is at now and the outcomes of those already ill, they're out, but if they were right and a sudden stop in deaths were about to happen in these countries, then why wouldn't it also happen in the UK post-peak? Clearly they can't think it will if the UK is going to end up with triple these numbers. It's just drivel.
 
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littlebabyjesus said:
Sure but even with all those caveats, they still are way off. Just those people who are seriously ill right now and are going to die will pretty much make up those totals. More than 6,000 in intensive care in Spain right now, for instance. Sadly they can't even be close to right. The reporter should have picked up on that before publishing it.
Click to expand...

I suppose I'm more interested in the shape and the timing their model gives than the exact totals, though obviously there is quite a relationship between those things. Certainly its not hard to see how they are coming up with such a 'low' figure when you see the shape of their prediction for Spain. And at least I recognise the daily figures they've put into the Spain one. And me being interested in it doesnt mean I think it will turn out to be right, but the shape does interest me.

Since this is the UK thread I will post their UK and the Spanish one rather than just the Spanish one that I was talking about. But I havent even really given the UK one any thought yet.

UK first:

Screenshot 2020-04-07 at 21.12.50.png

Spain:

Screenshot 2020-04-07 at 21.08.31.png
 
Deaths down to 0 or so by earlyish June in both UK and Spain??

And that IMHE modelling is supposed to be a bad projection (possibly even an unrealisticly bad one)? :confused:

I think I must be missing something very important.
Apologies for any stupidity on my part .... :oops:
 
Petcha said:
The WHO has advised people not to wear them. I can see it's a natural human reaction to want to wear them but the cynic in me suggests most people are wearing them to protect themselves, not others. They're not protecting themselves, in fact putting themselves more at risk.
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I wear one when I go to the supermarket and it is totally to protect others cus of working in an acute hospital department. I get pretty cagey cus people get too close......I had to explain this to a staff member working on the scab tills.....I asked her to give me notice when she was getting close so I could distance myself (she sidled up to me and removed a can of butter beans from my bag cus I had 1 more then my permitted 3. I had a go at her for touching my stuff) I apologised for being harsh but honestly........ :rolleyes:
 
William of Walworth said:
Deaths down to 0 or so by earlyish June in both UK and Spain??

And that IMHE modelling is supposed to be a bad projection (possibly even an unrealisticly bad one)? :confused:

I think I must be missing something very important.
Apologies for any stupidity on my part .... :oops:
Click to expand...

No comment on the shape or timing but presumably it only goes to 0 if social distancing stays in force and followed. The reality is the rules will get reduced as nhs capacity becomes free to process more casualties. It's all about controlling the flow into hospital.
 
William of Walworth said:
Deaths down to 0 or so by earlyish June in both UK and Spain??
And that IMHE modelling is supposed to be a bad projection (possibly even an unrealisticly bad one)? :confused:

I think I must be missing something very important.
Apologies for any stupidity on my part .... :oops:
Click to expand...

Supine said:
No comment on the shape or timing but presumably it only goes to 0 if social distancing stays in force and followed. The reality is the rules will get reduced as nhs capacity becomes free to process more casualties. It's all about controlling the flow into hospital.
Click to expand...

OK, thank you.
I was actually assuming that full lockdown will end up being extended (and maybe made stricter?) for a good while longer, at least until the end of May -- and probably longer.
It does seem a bit weird though to model projections that suggest a fully successful -- 0 deaths by June!? -- isolation and distancing regime doesn't it?
But as I said, I expect I'm missing something vitally important

(Would be interested to hear elbows ' take on my question too, when he has time)
 
Three and a bit months Wuhan was in lockdown, about the same size as London, just emerging from lockdown now. (details in worldwide thread). Their lockdown was more stringent than London's is thus far.

So, could be 3 months perhaps more in London.
 
William of Walworth said:
OK, thank you.
I was actually assuming that full lockdown will end up being extended (and maybe made stricter?) for a good while longer, at least until the end of May -- and probably longer.
It does seem a bit weird though to model projections that suggest a fully successful -- 0 deaths by June!? -- isolation and distancing regime doesn't it?
But as I said, I expect I'm missing something vitally important

(Would be interested to hear elbows ' take on my question too, when he has time)
Click to expand...

I've already said nearly everything I had to say about that model for now.

Two reasons why articles calling that model a bad projection:

There are parts to the model that show estimated number of hospital and ICU beds. Some of those might sounds rather high, I dont know, I've been completely ignoring that side of things so far from that model.

The shaded areas on their graphs represent the range of uncertainty of their models forecast. If journalists focus on the upper bounds of that range, the number will usually be rather high, and if they focus on the lower bounds the numbers may be rather low.
 
And as for whether its got anything right about the timescales involved, thats why I said I was interested in the shape and timing of this model, and will be interested to see how it compares to the reality. The clues will likely come most obviously and quickest from the actual numbers we get from Italy and Spain, and UK hospital data. This next week isnt just likely to be a grim week, its also one which could give us more clues about the future than we've had before. But I dont know, maybe it will take a week longer than that, it depends what trends emerge and their pace.

Now, I have severely overloaded on data today so thats it from me on that model for some days.
 
kalidarkone said:
I wear one when I go to the supermarket and it is totally to protect others cus of working in an acute hospital department. I get pretty cagey cus people get too close......I had to explain this to a staff member working on the scab tills.....I asked her to give me notice when she was getting close so I could distance myself (she sidled up to me and removed a can of butter beans from my bag cus I had 1 more then my permitted 3. I had a go at her for touching my stuff) I apologised for being harsh but honestly........ :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm sorry for the callousness of my original post there. I was just a bit frustrated because I already had enough on my plate trying to buy things without someone butting their beak in at me.

You work in the hospitals so you'd know much more about this than me. I'm just going on what they say on TV. I'm also a bit sick of people increasingly swerving me because I'm on crutches as if having a broken ankle marks me out as a carrier! Before all this people certainly werent making room for me. This thing has sent the whole world insane.

What are the scab tills btw?
 
Why the fuck are we prioritising tests when the majority of the population is left unable to be tested spreading the shit and the deterioration comes around 8-10 days into the infection so we have to isolate then wait until we’re nearly fucking dead before they’ll admit us and test us uk is bullshit
 
Annonymouse1 said:
Why the fuck are we prioritising tests when the majority of the population is left unable to be tested spreading the shit and the deterioration comes around 8-10 days into the infection so we have to isolate then wait until we’re nearly fucking dead before they’ll admit us and test us uk is bullshit
Click to expand...

I'm not convinced that "we" are .... :hmm:
 
David Clapson said:
Given that 9 London bus drivers have already died, I have zero faith in any of the models.
Click to expand...

I find this odd. Of all inside essential workers i'd have thought bus drivers were fairly well protected behind a screen and most buses I see going past on my busy bus route have 0 1 2 maybe 3 people at most on them.

I wonder then how many shop workers are affected. I would expect it to be many thousands with hundreds of deaths. I havent seen anything about it.
 
quimcunx said:
I find this odd. Of all inside essential workers i'd have thought bus drivers were fairly well protected behind a screen and most buses I see going past on my busy bus route have 0 1 2 maybe 3 people at most on them.

I wonder then how many shop workers are affected. I would expect it to be many thousands with hundreds of deaths. I havent seen anything about it.
Click to expand...
The explanation is that they contracted the virus before the lockdown. Most of the people dying at the moment will have done so. tbh I hate to think how many people caught it on the Tube pre-lockdown.

That's one of the most frustrating things at the moment - we can't know for sure how well the changes made two weeks ago have worked even now.

There's a very good interview with a South Korean doctor on the Science thread where he explains how the virus can be transmitted in closed environments via aerosols, but also, crucially, how it can survive for days on certain kinds of hard surfaces. People tapping in on the bus, then the driver touching that surface any time that day or even the day after could do it. Not like buses were ever being disinfected.

It did occur to me that they should just make the buses free at the moment to avoid any tapping in. Not like it would even cost much given how few people there are on them.
 
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Petcha said:
This is an absolutely stunning piece about this whole shitstorm we find ourselves in and the repercussions on the global psyche

www.theguardian.com

'The impossible has already happened': what coronavirus can teach us about hope

The long read: In the midst of fear and isolation, we are learning that profound, positive change is possible
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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It's comforting to read but I feel it's way, way too early for these big think pieces. Editors cannot resist commissioning them because they are accustomed to the usual rapid fire news cycle where disasters are familiar within a few hours of them starting. With this pandemic the news cycle lasts for a year or two. These articles are like trying to review a rollercoaster when you're still on the first climb. Too many people are subscribing to the notion that things are known and controlled. I would say we are still at the 'flailing around in chaos' stage. Nine London bus drivers dead already! We're stuck in a horror movie...but it's real.
 
I’ve not read this thread since yesterday. It was nice to have a break. I’ve skipped ahead so I may have missed some useful / important stuff.

Anyway, I wanted to add this new detail. I’m putting on this thread because it seems to get most traffic and I think it’s important.

Pink eye, conjunctivitis, is now recognised as an early symptom of COVID-19.

It’s not common, so not getting conjunctivitis does not mean you don’t have the virus.

But it’s common enough that it needs to be recognised as a possible symptom of the coronavirus.

The virus is definitely found in tears, and we can catch the virus by touching our eyes with contaminated hands.
 
David Clapson said:
It's comforting to read but I feel it's way, way too early for these big think pieces. Editors cannot resist commissioning them because they are accustomed to the usual rapid fire news cycle where disasters are familiar within a few hours of them starting. With this pandemic the news cycle lasts for a year or two. These articles are like trying to review a rollercoaster when you're still on the first climb. Too many people are subscribing to the notion that things are known and controlled. I would say we are still at the 'flailing around in chaos' stage. Nine London bus drivers dead already! We're stuck in a horror movie...but it's real.
Click to expand...

I kinda agree but the writer here is probably the best placed person I can imagine to write about it at this point having written extensively about the effects of disasters on society.

en.wikipedia.org

Rebecca Solnit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

She's a truly wonderful writer.
 
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