Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[ska invita]

No. It's when shit goes really bad for a while.

The use of the word peak seems meaningless to me... Im taking it to mean within two weeks they'll press the lockdown button

 

[LDC]

Saw that. What does peak mean in this case? Surely not that cases will go down after that two week period

Start of the peak. The beginning of the curve upwards.

 

[LDC]

The use of the word peak seems meaningless to me... Im taking it to mean within two weeks they'll press the lockdown button

I think that's about right. As it starts going up measures will start to try and flatten the curve and push it into the future. My understanding is that's the reason for not doing the lockdown now but waiting.

 

[LDC]

Cheers, I'd really like to see the detail.

Posted it in the Italy thread ska invita

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Start of the peak. The beginning of the curve upwards.

Yup.

The start of the UK peak of the coronavirus epidemic is expected within the next fortnight, England’s deputy chief medical officer has said.

Of course you really want to start serious measures before that.

 

[DotCommunist]

If they close the schools I can't go to the one I clean for money and clean it (for money). Coronavirus dipping my pockets now.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Given the way things have gone so far...at a rate of 30% increase daily and fatalities at the current 1.5%, by the end of March we're looking at over 78,000 cases and over 1100 deaths. Obviously a lot might alter those numbers but it's not the blah blah jokey joke it was a month ago, is it

 

[elbows]

It wasnt a blah blah joke to everyone on December 31st or January 20th, let alone on February 10th.

 

[elbows]

In a move similar to that announced in Italy, UK taxpayer-owned bank RBS will allow people affected by the coronavirus outbreak to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.

The bank, which runs the RBS, NatWest, and Ulster Bank brands, also said savers could close fixed-term savings accounts early with no charge.

This is designed to allow people to access cash if they need it as the impact of the virus is felt.

from BBC live updates page at 12:50 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51811969

 

[treelover]

Not sure where else to put this, but i am getting very worried, not just about contracting Covid, but what i can see is a lack of preparation for disabled and sick people, all slots for tesco delivery are booked next couple of days, the help lines are jammed and long wating times, already i have carers who are saying they wont be working for me much longer, this is before it gets severe, also wondering what happens if ISP's are affected, the internet is essentail for DASP.

just looked online, hardly any pasta at tescos

 

[chilango]

I wonder, especially as we approach the two week Easter holidays, if - should things escalate further - we'll see a default "self-managed" lock down of schools preempting any Government announcement.

1) I suspect we'll see significant numbers of parents keeping their children home. I know of one example where after a case was diagnosed in a nearby school dozens of (extra) children were absent from school the following day with unspecified minor illnesses.

2) I know the Government and School leaders have talked of how to run schools if a % of staff are off...but the reality is the moment any gets it the rest of the school will be self-isolating anyway.

 

[andysays]

A sixth death reported by BBC

 

[8ball]

Honestly the numbers now will seem like a puddle compared to the torrents later.

Yes, I am trying to get that across to the team.

The spread here is roughly half the Italian rate, meaning if we follow their tactics, we would still not be locked down (quite) by end of month. That’s a lot of assuming, though, and I expect us to be sunk on ticket sales anyway (they tend to come through about now).

Feel bad for the guys who have been working really hard on it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not to turn the thread into a maths discussion but here are the figures for Italy on a daily basis (this is the time being used on which the exponential growth calculation would be based) since the first death. It might be me but I do not see except for the first 4 days any pattern of exponential growth ie the growth is not increasing at a constant rate whatever that might be (I am aware it does not have to be double but initially here it was) - for the first 4 days it was doubling so exponential - but then the total went up by 4/8 followed by 5/12, 5/17, 2/11 etc.....so considering this data on a daily basis I cannot see how the growth is exponential but then as someone said maths was a long time ago and i have forgotten most of it. Given this is a medical outbreak though it would be very odd if it was exponential growth.

Date

21​

22​

23​

24​

25​

26​

27​

28​

29​

1​

2​

3​

4​

5​

6​

7​

8​

9​

Nos of deaths

1​

1​

2​

4​

4​

5​

5​

4​

8​

11​

11​

27​

22​

47​

49​

36​

133​

97​

Total

1​

2​

4​

8​

12​

17​

22​

26​

34​

45​

56​

83​

105​

152​

201​

237​

370​

467​

Given the relatively small numbers involved, there's going to be a fair bit of variation in the daily number while still fitting the overall pattern. Taking groups of four days, you have:

8 ... 18 ... 57 ... 154 ... then 231 for just first two days of last period, being conservative, double that to make 462

The underlying pattern there would appear to be about a tripling of deaths every four days, so yes, exponential growth.

 

[8ball]

just looked online, hardly any pasta at tescos

What is it with bog roll and pasta?

 

[Steel Icarus]

What is it with bog roll and pasta?

Pasta keeps. Bog roll for sneezes

 

[killer b]

What is it with bog roll and pasta?

everyone heard bog roll and pasta were in short supply, so they bought extra

 

[Numbers]

Usual 2pm update of numbers delayed.

 

[8ball]

Usual 2pm update of numbers delayed.

No more cases, I expect.
Panic over.

 

[Numbers]

No more cases, I expect.
Panic over.

I’ll fill in as today’s Numbers until the official release.

 

[8ball]

I’ll fill in as today’s Numbers until the official release.

1,978?!??

 

[sheothebudworths]

Number of cases

As of 9am on 10 March 2020, 26,261 people have been tested in the UK, of which 25,888 were confirmed negative and 373 were confirmed as positive. Six patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Cases identified in England
Change between chart and table

NHS region	Cases
East of England	29
London	91
Midlands	36
North East and Yorkshire	24
North West	37
South East	51
South West	41
To be determined	15
Total	324

 

[sheothebudworths]

Coronavirus sufferers symptom-free for five days on average – study

Findings suggest the 14-day quarantine period used around world strikes a good balance

www.theguardian.com

 

[Steel Icarus]

Fewer than I expected. Thought we might hit 400-415 today.

 

[Steel Icarus]

About 17%

 

[cupid_stunt]

Given the way things have gone so far...at a rate of 30% increase daily and fatalities at the current 1.5%, by the end of March we're looking at over 78,000 cases and over 1100 deaths. Obviously a lot might alter those numbers but it's not the blah blah jokey joke it was a month ago, is it

But, we are not seeing a 30% increase daily, yesterday it went from 273 to 319 cases, today it went from 319 to 373 - both around the 17%.

 

[Steel Icarus]

But, we are not seeing a 30% increase daily, yesterday it went from 273 to 319 cases, today it went from 319 to 373 - both around the 17%.

At that rate it's 10,000 by the end of March.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

At that rate it's 10,000 by the end of March.

Thing is we can't have much certainty about future rates. People have already changed their behaviour since the start of this, and we don't know yet what effect that will have, particularly given that there will be a delay between changing behaviour and its effect coming out in the numbers.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Of course. Any predictions come with in-built caveats