Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Azrael]

The gvt fucked it right up. Shows they cannot govern, only throw out slogans. They cannot catch up with testing now as the infrastructure is not there to do it and the whole world is now competing for the available resources to do it with.

They look more and more incompetent by the hour and this cannot be blagged as per their usual MO. I'm no expert by any means but everything I have read points to mass testing as being a very basic requirement for managing this epidemic and they're failing.

Reports of lack of ppe in hospitals are consistent and disgusting, yet all they do is parrot out pre-prepared lines on numbers of items issued,with no context.

It doesn't wash and even the tory press are now questioning their competance. These tory shits have always wanted their Battle of Britain legacy and now they have one are fucking it up big time. Guess what , it's not so easy to manage is it you fucks.

In a chink of light, university labs are saying they're ready to step in to help massively increase testing, and companies are offering the relevant products. Germany's decentralised approach has certainly helped (why I've lamented the '70s local govt reforms that destroyed our old independent public health departments).

Greatest block ATM appears to be policy, and the pressure to change that is ferocious.

Churchill's catalogue of errors is legendary, but at least he was willing to change course when it went wrong, fire advisors when they messed up, and for all his ranting, take criticism onboard. Frozen Johnson's the anti-Churchill.

 

[Smangus]

Johnson is no Churchill. Any delusions about that should have been well and truly expunged.

There will be a big political reckoning after this, it's at the start of his tenure too. He will not be remembered for Brexit now but for his response to Covid.

 

[keybored]

I thought the expiry date issue was sorted a while back? We have loads of mothballed masks that are officially out of date but they were tested and found to still be effective? The date thing was raised very early on in the pandemic as far as I remember.

I don't doubt that (and if I needed PPE in my job I'd certainly sooner have some out of date masks than no protection at all) . I just thought it a bit suss that his 6 year old account disappeared not long after very publicly complaining about his PPE, in light of the post I quoted.

 

[Petcha]

Does anyone (informed) have any actual idea of when the social distancing will be stopped?

I get that schools won't be open until sep/oct, that comes from informed sources but when can I go the pub?

 

[Raheem]

Tbf, Churchill didn't go into WW2 with the idea you could just leave it to sort itself out and that talk of investing in aeroplanes was OTT.

 

[Wilf]

Does anyone (informed) have any actual idea of when the social distancing will be stopped?

I get that schools won't be open until sep/oct, that comes from informed sources but when can I go the pub?

My guess is that pubs + entertainments and large gatherings will be just about the last thing to go back to normal.

 

[Petcha]

My guess is that pubs + entertainments and large gatherings will be just about the last thing to go back to normal.

Ok, when can I have my mates over for a bbq? Like 5 people.

 

[Dogsauce]

Lockdown will become difficult once many people have had (or think they have had) the illness - how can people justifiably be kept in when they are immune? Yet if you let recovered individuals go about their business, how do you enforce who should or shouldn’t be out? ID cards or something? Certificates? People will start claiming they’ve had it just to get back out in the world, to get back to the pub. If it goes on long it will just breakdown in this way.

 

[Sue]

Ok, when can I have my mates over for a bbq? Like 5 people.

No-one knows.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Ok, when can I have my mates over for a bbq? Like 5 people.

Just make sure you cook them all the way through.

 

[zahir]

Remarkable really.

Just 2,000 key NHS staff have been tested, UK government admits

Health officials urged to drop strict rules hampering introduction of mass testing

www.theguardian.com

'Absolutely wrong': how UK's coronavirus test strategy unravelled

Ministers shrugged off warnings a lack of tests could cost lives, until they were forced to change tack

www.theguardian.com

 

[SpookyFrank]

Lockdown will become difficult once many people have had (or think they have had) the illness - how can people justifiably be kept in when they are immune? Yet if you let recovered individuals go about their business, how do you enforce who should or shouldn’t be out? ID cards or something? Certificates? People will start claiming they’ve had it just to get back out in the world, to get back to the pub. If it goes on long it will just breakdown in this way.

Or people will just get sick of it. The police, having now done nearly a whole week's work and all without the vital support normally provided by the nation's kebab shops, must be near to complete collapse already.

 

[Raheem]

Ok, when can I have my mates over for a bbq? Like 5 people.

Funerals are still allowed, and I'm not sure there's a specific rule against drinking, so that might be your earliest opportunity for something close.

 

[treelover]

Hope cafes at least can be opened again at some point.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Emergency hospital wards have today been set up in abandoned schools and gyms across Cumbria by the military, presumably due to our way above average infection/death rate.

Work on Tuesday was more organised/more to my liking due to actual suit-wearing, bald-headed bouncers arriving to police admittance/social distancing of the queues. Didn't even bother getting my usual weekly shop when I finished, as I am well stocked up (long in advance - paranoid, cynical, overly cautious nature not recent panic-buying). Still not wearing mask or gloves until work tells me I can dress as Scorpion.

 

[Azrael]

Johnson is no Churchill. Any delusions about that should have been well and truly expunged.

There will be a big political reckoning after this, it's at the start of his tenure too. He will not be remembered for Brexit now but for his response to Covid.

Gotta admit, even someone who loathes Al as much as I do am surprised he isn't doing a better impression. As shown by his Fleet Street run and wins in the mayoralty and election, the one skill he has is gift of the gab and the charisma to sell it. Instead, we get a perverse mix of frivolity and fatalism.

Even from the most cynical POV, he could've used this to bolster his national sovereignty rhetoric by imposing flight bans and quarantine at the borders. Instead he left passengers streaming in from hot spots, bunked off work for his monthly holiday, and hoped it'd all work itself out. Woeful, even judged by his own sorry terms.

 

[Raheem]

Hope cafes at least can be opened again at some point.

Don't see how you can get to a situation where anything can open again without a ton of testing.

 

[William of Walworth]

My guess is that pubs + entertainments and large gatherings will be just about the last thing to go back to normal.

You're right, but a lot (generally) depends on how soon the Government end up being kicked to test people much, much more widely. Including antibody testing.
And on when or whether the death rate starts to drop and the new infections rate starts to drop.

No-one knows how long that will take to happen, but I still remain sceptical about six whole months of lock-down, let alone about wild talk of right until Xmas etc.

Some have even suggested eighteen months to two years! Probably with earlier talk of 'eighteen months until a vaccine' in mind, as if that's synonymous with a full-on lock-down for the same period, which IMO it isn't.

A full-on lock-down for periods as long as that seems virtually impossible to sustain.
Some form of relaxation of the rules will have to happen sooner.

 

[Azrael]

Lockdown will become difficult once many people have had (or think they have had) the illness - how can people justifiably be kept in when they are immune? Yet if you let recovered individuals go about their business, how do you enforce who should or shouldn’t be out? ID cards or something? Certificates? People will start claiming they’ve had it just to get back out in the world, to get back to the pub. If it goes on long it will just breakdown in this way.

Singing stops in Italy as fear and social unrest mount

Three weeks on from start of lockdown, Italians are seeing that everything is not all right

www.theguardian.com

Under severe strain in Italy.

Country after country's copied Beijing like dominos falling, without noticing that lockdown wasn't their preferred solution, but a stopgap to buy time while they put in place a test-trace-isolate regime. Knowing its ruinous effect on people and the economy, they rushed to end mass quarantine as soon as possible.

If a government's reached the stage where a lockdown's necessary, they're already failed catastrophically.

 

[gosub]

Lockdown will become difficult once many people have had (or think they have had) the illness - how can people justifiably be kept in when they are immune? Yet if you let recovered individuals go about their business, how do you enforce who should or shouldn’t be out? ID cards or something? Certificates? People will start claiming they’ve had it just to get back out in the world, to get back to the pub. If it goes on long it will just breakdown in this way.

Met someone on 17th March who had just recovered. He can't be happy at the mo

 

[Smangus]

Gotta admit, even someone who loathes Al as much as I do am surprised he isn't doing a better impression. As shown by his Fleet Street run and wins in the mayoralty and election, the one skill he has is gift of the gab and the charisma to sell it. Instead, we get a perverse mix of frivolity and fatalism.

Even from the most cynical POV, he could've used this to bolster his national sovereignty rhetoric by imposing flight bans and quarantine at the borders. Instead he left passengers streaming in from hot spots, bunked off work for his monthly holiday, and hoped it'd all work itself out. Woeful, even judged by his own sorry terms.

Winning elections and governing countries are 2 different skillsets though. As is being amply demonstrated.

 

[Azrael]

You're right, but a lot (generally) depends on how soon the Government end up being kicked to test people much, much more widely. Including antibody testing.
And on when or whether the death rate starts to drop and the new infections rate starts to drop.

No-one knows how long that will take to happen, but I still remain sceptical about six whole months of lock-down, let alone about wild talk of right until Xmas etc.

Some have even suggested eighteen months to two years! Probably with earlier talk of 'eighteen months until a vaccine' in mind, as if that's synonymous with a full-on lock-down for the same period, which IMO it isn't.

A full-on lock-down for periods as long as that seems virtually impossible to sustain.
Some form of relaxation of the rules will have to happen sooner.

The eighteen month-two year thing comes from the Imperial paper, which didn't plug mass testing and contact tracing into their magic modelling machine. To be fair, they did suggest rolling lockdowns, not continuous detainment.

Even contemplating mass house arrest for that length of time's madness born of panic. I daren't think of the ruinous cost to people's physical and mental health, their finances, and national infrastructure. It'd also have a terrifying mortality rate from ill health exacerbated by being cooped up, diseases undiagnosed, and suicide.

I'm not worried about it: the media were furiously pushing the government on their planned exit strategy today; and it'll be impossible to sustain as summer arrives and surrounding countries end their own lockdowns.

 

[Azrael]

Met someone on 17th March who had just recovered. He can't be happy at the mo

As mentioned on the other thread, I've probably had it (right time and place to be infected, symptoms and course closely tracked, including ones not publicised at the time), but being allowed out wouldn't do much good while the rest of society's shut down.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Singing stops in Italy as fear and social unrest mount

Three weeks on from start of lockdown, Italians are seeing that everything is not all right

www.theguardian.com

Under severe strain in Italy.

Country after country's copied Beijing like dominos falling, without noticing that lockdown wasn't their preferred solution, but a stopgap to buy time while they put in place a test-trace-isolate regime. Knowing its ruinous effect on people and the economy, they rushed to end mass quarantine as soon as possible.

If a government's reached the stage where a lockdown's necessary, they're already failed catastrophically.

Yep. So during lockdown you need to have two priorities, which are both equally important, but only one of which is immediately urgent. Gearing up the health services to deal with the onslaught is the immediately urgent thing, but doing that is futile if you're not also working as hard on the second thing, which is the exit strategy. Surely that needs two basically separate teams to lead them. I don't see that at the moment. I just see chaos from a bunch of people trying to coordinate everything at once and inevitably favouring the immediately urgent thing. No lessons learned.

 

[gosub]

As mentioned on the other thread, I've probably had it (right time and place to be infected, symptoms and course closely tracked, including ones not publicised at the time), but being allowed out wouldn't do much good while the rest of society's shut down.

Oh this bloke had had it, tested and everything and been in the paper

 

[Azrael]

Oh this bloke had had it, tested and everything and been in the paper

Envy him the test: even if I got one privately now, it could well come back negative; and very worrying if there's something else out there that's so similar!

 

[Azrael]

Yep. So during lockdown you need to have two priorities, which are both equally important, but only one of which is immediately urgent. Gearing up the health services to deal with the onslaught is the immediately urgent thing, but doing that is futile if you're not also working as hard on the second thing, which is the exit strategy. Surely that needs two basically separate teams to lead them. I don't see that at the moment. I just see chaos from a bunch of people trying to coordinate everything at once and inevitably favouring the immediately urgent thing. No lessons learned.

Multiple commentators saying they need to appoint a minister to oversee mass testing. Since they'd inevitably appoint Grayling, after their swift work throwing up a hospital at the ExCel, lean towards letting the Army organize it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Multiple commentators saying they need to appoint a minister to oversee mass testing. Since they'd inevitably appoint Grayling, after their swift work throwing up a hospital at the ExCel, lean towards letting the Army organize it.

They've been so fucking slow on every single aspect of this. They do the right thing a few days or weeks after it became painfully obvious that it was the thing to do. Still. They're still fucking useless.

Letting the army lead any aspect of this would be the ultimate failure. It would mean we lose any pretence of a democratic system. Help out, sure. But it is not their job to organise it - handing to them is dereliction of duty. It's what Viktor Orban would do.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Emergency hospital wards have today been set up in abandoned schools and gyms across Cumbria by the military, presumably due to our way above average infection/death rate.

I am quoting myself here, but I find it odd and troubling that the two new hospitals in London and Birmingham get so much press attention when Cumbria with less than 5% of the population of those two cities combined get 500 extra hospital beds overnight.

 

[Azrael]

They've been so fucking slow on every single aspect of this. They do the right thing a few days or weeks after it became painfully obvious that it was the thing to do. Still. They're still fucking useless.

Letting the army lead any aspect of this would be the ultimate failure. It would mean we lose any pretence of a democratic system. Help out, sure. But it is not their job to organise it - handing to them is dereliction of duty. It's what Viktor Orban would do.

One more ultimate dereliction to add to the sordid list, but yes, someone elected should be the figurehead, however nominal their authority is in reality.