Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Plumdaff]

I say this respectfully but do you not think it might just be that it’s really fucking hard doing that job? People are so quick to jump in damning others, but it’s the man in the arena that counts. It’s like on the frontline of the NHS, mistakes will be made, but if your standing on the sidelines criticising, well...

I’m no Tory but I don’t think they are evil or completely incompetent. And I absolutely definitely think their aim is to preserve life.

It's a fucking hard job, no doubt, and any government of any political stripe would struggle. But they have been in power for ten years and are wholly responsible for the poor state our services were in going into this, the fact that we couldn't lockdown as fast as other places because not only ideologically our politicians weren't up for it but our welfare state isn't either, and that we should have had orders in for ventilators and PPE months ago. They know what state the NHS is in. They knew before the GE that the stories about it were true. They've known that austerity has killed 100,000 plus people in this country. Their politics is, by default, callous.

 

[elbows]

Since deaths are 100 times less likely for the low-risk 80%, and the overall death rate is about 2% of infections (without any measures), I think we would see a death rate of 0.02% or one infected person in 5000. We will probably see a death rate higher than that under the current policy, because although the short term death rate may be crashed by the lock-down, the lock-down will be relaxed before herd immunity has been achieved so there will be a non-negligible lingering fatal disease plus re-infections from overseas.

Do you think the sort of hospitalisation and intensive care rate estimates in the table below are in any way compatible with going for the herd immunity/minimal mitigation approach?

 

[Edie]

I'd be interested in how you can look back at the last 10 years of Tory rule and not describe them as evil and callous. I know that you're not blind to what they have done to communities, workers, unwaged people and those that need help so how would you describe them? "Not very nice" doesn't really cut it does it?

They are fucking horrendous.

I know it’s hard to believe but they just have a different idea of what is good for people. Of how to run a country. Of the role and size of the state. Of personal freedoms, independence, and responsibility. Many of their views are shared by the majority of people in this country.

Your right in that I don’t share all right wing views, and my opinion on social security and health care is left wing. But this odd insistence that anyone who isn’t a big state socialist is evil is frankly absurd. This black and white thinking is a real problem.

 

[planetgeli]

so much as a technocratic 'long view' which tried to take in the damage to lives that closing down the economy might do.

Have the Tories had a fundamental change in ideology since the Miner's strike then?

but where is the PPE, ...There’s a global shortage.

Documents show that officials working under former health secretary Jeremy Hunt told medical advisers three years ago to “reconsider” a formal recommendation that eye protection should be provided to all healthcare professionals who have close contact with pandemic influenza patients.

Advice on protective gear for NHS staff was rejected owing to cost

Exclusive: DoH dismissed call for eye protection – now needed for coronavirus – in 2017

www.theguardian.com

 

[Edie]

It's a fucking hard job, no doubt, and any government of any political stripe would struggle. But they have been in power for ten years and are wholly responsible for the poor state our services were in going into this, the fact that we couldn't lockdown as fast as other places because not only ideologically our politicians weren't up for it but our welfare state isn't either, and that we should have had orders in for ventilators and PPE months ago. They know what state the NHS is in. They knew before the GE that the stories about it were true. They've known that austerity has killed 100,000 plus people in this country. Their politics is, by default, callous.

They knew before the general election that there would be a global pandemic that would overwhelm our ICU capacity and therefore we should bulk order vents. Is that what you’re saying? (Surely not, thats batshit mate, have I misunderstood ?!!!).

 

[agricola]

They knew before the general election that there would be a global pandemic that would overwhelm our ICU capacity and therefore we should bulk order vents. Is that what you’re saying? (Surely not, thats batshit mate, have I misunderstood ?!!!).

Probably not, but there are contingency plans and exercises are run to identify what problems will occur if something like that happens. Having an exercise, learning from it and then doing nothing about it isn't on.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I fucking hate the tories, don't get me wrong - but I think it's necessary to try and understand their motivations in a way that goes beyond 'bad man hate poor people', otherwise you miss stuff.

More like 'bad men (and women) don't give a shit about poor people and will see them suffer in order to keep the rich rich'. That's what they have been doing for years. The idea that such a thing isn't a callous disregard for life is absurd. You yourself have pointed out that these are choices.

 

[klang]

Seb, it’s a fucking pandemic.

i'm aware of that.
calling me out doesn't have legs

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anyhow, I get it. The urge to rally round is strong. But let's not forget what they are like when this is over.

 

[Taphoi]

Do you think the sort of hospitalisation and intensive care rate estimates in the table below are in any way compatible with going for the herd immunity/minimal mitigation approach?
View attachment 203940

Yes. Because these figures are only using the age-dependence factor. When you take out all the people in each age group who have medical susceptibilities (transplant patients, type 2 diabetes etc) you are left with vey low hospitalisations at all ages up to at least 70 in what are then the government-defined low risk groups. I personally suspect that age-dependence is only a proxy for a smoking history. Five times as high a proportion of the elderly smoked as for current generations and twice as many elderly men smoked as women, thus explaining just why severe cases are twice as common among men and why severe cases are almost unknown among children. The Chinese data shows a strong smoking risk, but not enough people historically smoked in affected parts of China to see the full horror of this.

 

[Treacle Toes]

Of the role and size of the state. Of personal freedoms, independence, and responsibility. .....

Your right in that I don’t share all right wing views, and my opinion on social security and health care is left wing.

These things are on so many levels fundamentally at odds, health care and social security are the most obvious examples but it impacts so much more.

Many of their views are shared by the majority of people in this country.

I simply don't believe this.

Many people vote for other parties or don't vote at all. Those figures make up the majority surely? Also basing my opinion on how many people seem to change their hard line Tory minds when stuff affects them personally (directly or indirectly)


Maybe I'm ears hard....

 

[planetgeli]

Anyhow, I get it. The urge to rally round is strong. But let's not forget what they are like when this is over.

I'm not forgetting what they're like while it's still here. Fuck giving them a holiday.

 

[treelover]

Lol. Good luck with that.

I wonder if they realise how lucky they are to be able to out everyday if they want, many disabled and sick people are now completely housebound, isolated, due to minimum care, etc.

 

[treelover]

I say this respectfully but do you not think it might just be that it’s really fucking hard doing that job? People are so quick to jump in damning others, but it’s the man in the arena that counts. It’s like on the frontline of the NHS, mistakes will be made, but if your standing on the sidelines criticising, well...

I’m no Tory but I don’t think they are evil or completely incompetent. And I absolutely definitely think their aim is to preserve life.

Try telling David Clapson that, or the bloke who cut his own throat before christmas, the many others not now with us due to the brutal welfare regime.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not forgetting what they're like while it's still here. Fuck giving them a holiday.

Yeah well with the likes of Gove now trying to blame China. ffs. No humility. Just a tiny bit of contrition would go a very long way right now.

 

[BristolEcho]

I know it’s hard to believe but they just have a different idea of what is good for people. Of how to run a country. Of the role and size of the state. Of personal freedoms, independence, and responsibility. Many of their views are shared by the majority of people in this country.

Your right in that I don’t share all right wing views, and my opinion on social security and health care is left wing. But this odd insistence that anyone who isn’t a big state socialist is evil is frankly absurd. This black and white thinking is a real problem.

Just as an example they knew exactly what would happen from their approach to benefits and they stoked the fire via the media that allowed it to happen. I don't think anyone who isn't a big state socialist is evil, in fact I'd argue many big state socialists can be evil too, but many Tories don't give a shit about people of certain demographics, economical status and will continue to exploit us as they always have.

It's not black and white thinking it is thinking that has been learned through the things we have experienced, and are experincing today. We have every right to be angry, to resist them where we can, and to call them evil when they are. Just because we are in a crisis at the moment it doesn't mean that has to stop and it won't be forgotten. It's important to remember it even more now so we can prepare for what comes next.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Even if they largely get away with their botched timing and messages, I dont think they will get off the hook for the massive PPE scandal and the damage of the austerity years. I dont yet know how history will judge them regarding testing because so many other countries were similar, EC documents include plenty of testing caveats related to limited test capacity, etc.

Anyway there are now signs that they are going to try to blame China as much as possible. More thoughts and quotes on that shortly.

You're probably getting bored from hearing this now mate but I'm so grateful for your posts on this, its given me a source I can trust for balanced analysis and it's the reason why I got my parents to isolate over a week early which could save their lives.

It also meant I could make out I knew all about this at work and knew what was coming days before it happened which meant they listened when I said we needed to put in place procedures to keep people safe. Wasnt as much fun being right as it usually is for obvious reasons but there you go.

Thanks, after all this we should have an elbows party where everyone buys you a pint

 

[Tankus]

I'm glad for anyone who dodges the worst of Covid-19, even Johnson, but now he's apparently escaped with the mildest of mild cases, fear he'll be even more Woosterish about taking it on the chin. Thankfully the public won't be in the mood to take lessons from someone preaching about what a breeze the celeb strain is.

Maybe the lords will drop like flys might put a bit of impetus on gov responses

 

[prunus]

By the way due to data reporting delays, UK figures for deaths released each day does not mean all those deaths actually happened during that period.

eg:

Hospital deaths falling at fastest rate yet

Deaths from covid-19 in England's hospitals are declining at the fastest rate yet, as the whole South West region sees one death in seven days.

www.hsj.co.uk

Oh good. I hope at least the official modellers have decent date-aggregated data to work with.

 

[little_legs]

Hard to see what other word would be appropriate; the messages they are sending out still contradict the advice they are giving out. Look at those photos of him videoconferencing with a room full of people yesterday, for example.

Friend lives next door to a Tory MP and his wife, who are supposedly self-isolating. On Friday night the MP had visitors who drove over, spent a few hours having dinner and hanging out with them and then left because government guidance on a pandemic can be ignored if you're a smug Tory.

 

[Brainaddict]

tfl emails are saying public transport is for essential workers only. Interesting that they are so openly refusing to be on the same page as the government - presumably under Khan's direction.

 

[treelover]

These things are on so many levels fundamentally at odds, health care and social security are the most obvious examples but it impacts so much more.



I simply don't believe this.

Many people vote for other parties or don't vote at all. Those figures make up the majority surely? Also basing my opinion on how many people seem to change their hard line Tory minds when stuff affects them personally (directly or indirectly)


Maybe I'm ears hard....

yes, plenty of Tories out applauding on Thursday

though could be hypocrites.

 

[treelover]

Just as an example they knew exactly what would happen from their approach to benefits and they stoked the fire via the media that allowed it to happen. I don't think anyone who isn't a big state socialist is evil, in fact I'd argue many big state socialists can be evil too, but many Tories don't give a shit about people of certain demographics, economical status and will continue to exploit us as they always have.

It's not black and white thinking it is thinking that has been learned through the things we have experienced, and are experincing today. We have every right to be angry, to resist them where we can, and to call them evil when they are. Just because we are in a crisis at the moment it doesn't mean that has to stop and it won't be forgotten. It's important to remember it even more now so we can prepare for what comes next.

it was partly political arguments and debates during the war that led to the welfare state

 

[elbows]

Yes. Because these figures are only using the age-dependence factor. When you take out all the people in each age group who have medical susceptibilities (transplant patients, type 2 diabetes etc) you are left with vey low hospitalisations at all ages up to at least 70 in what are then the government-defined low risk groups. I personally suspect that age-dependence is only a proxy for a smoking history. Five times as high a proportion of the elderly smoked as for current generations and twice as many elderly men smoked as women, thus explaining just why severe cases are twice as common among men and why severe cases are almost unknown among children. The Chinese data shows a strong smoking risk, but not enough people historically smoked in affected parts of China to see the full horror of this.

It is really easy to overstate the impact of smoking. Its likely a factor, but I highly doubt it explains the whole picture or is sufficient to completely explain the age and gender related aspects.

COVID-19 and smoking: A systematic review of the evidence

www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It is really easy to overstate the impact of smoking. Its likely a factor, but I highly doubt it explains the whole picture or is sufficient to completely explain the age and gender related aspects.

COVID-19 and smoking: A systematic review of the evidence

www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org

Yep. The initial figures coming out of China and S Korea with their massive bias by sex did indicate the possibility that smoking might be a big factor, but those numbers are now being replicated across the world where smoking differences by sex are far less pronounced. It does appear that 'being male' is a risk factor in and of itself.

 

[Plumdaff]

They knew before the general election that there would be a global pandemic that would overwhelm our ICU capacity and therefore we should bulk order vents. Is that what you’re saying? (Surely not, thats batshit mate, have I misunderstood ?!!!).

No, maybe I wasn't clear. They didn't know that, but they knew that the public services were on their knees and that has consequences. Even without the pandemic austerity has killed many people, they know about that. They also knew in January and February that a global pandemic was likely, and didn't act quickly enough. We're seeing a massive historic crisis, but smaller, more mundane crises were playing out across the country before this. Look at the response (or lack of it) to the recent flooding for example.

I think you're wrong tbh about Tories thinking their way of doing it is best for everyone. Most Tories I know think it isn't possible to have a system that is best for everyone, that it's inevitable that there are winners and losers. They think that the cost exacted on the losers is worth paying because they are, or are likely to be, the winners. Some of them also believe the losers largely deserve it.

 

[xes]

It still could be ACE2 related even without smoking, males have higher levels (IIRC) and they increase with age. So older males would be more at risk IF ACE2 receptors or whatever they are, have anything to do with it.

Or am I way off?

 

[elbows]

You're probably getting bored from hearing this now mate but I'm so grateful for your posts on this, its given me a source I can trust for balanced analysis and it's the reason why I got my parents to isolate over a week early which could save their lives.

Its not boring, it helps with my energy levels, but it is embarrassing to me and I think there are a bunch of other people who contributed significantly to the running commentary on this virus since the original thread started on Jan 20th.

Thanks, after all this we should have an elbows party where everyone buys you a pint

If I liked pints then I might have had a social life and wouldnt have ended up learning enough about pandemics in the past to be of some use during this one!

If I make it through this pandemic (I dont like to make assumptions and my own survival is no exception to this) then perhaps I can come up with something that people could do to help me get a life! In the meantime, does anyone know sihhi and what happened to them? They dont seem to have posted for 10 days, and although people may have been inclined to ignore some of the stuff they said because it seemed a bit alarmist, it was correct to raise the alarm about some of the details they kept going on about.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It still could be ACE2 related even without smoking, males have higher levels (IIRC) and they increase with age. So older males would be more at risk IF ACE2 receptors or whatever they are, have anything to do with it.

Or am I way off?

I read something that talked about the various possibilities, including men being vulnerable as they don't have two X chromosomes and so their immune response is prone to being weaker as a result of lacking backup copies of important genes, and that perhaps oestrogen might have some protective quality. All firmly in the realm of hypotheses atm.

 

[elbows]

It still could be ACE2 related even without smoking, males have higher levels (IIRC) and they increase with age. So older males would be more at risk IF ACE2 receptors or whatever they are, have anything to do with it.

Or am I way off?

A bunch of ACE2 issues and implications are on the list of things that need urgent research.

Some recent mentions of this stuff in the latest ECDC Risk Assessment:

Vulnerable groups: Data from Italy corroborate previously identified population groups at higher risk for having severe disease and death. These groups are elderly people above 70 years of age, and people with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer [8,18,20,56,57]. Men in these groups appear to be at a higher risk than females. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular diseases, and hypertension have been identified as strong predictors for ICU admission [20].

Higher ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzyme II) gene expression may be linked to higher susceptibility to SARS- CoV-2. It has been shown that ACE2 expression in lung tissues increases with age, tobacco use and with some types of antihypertensive treatment. These observations might explain the vulnerability of older people, tobacco users/smokers and those with hypertension; they also highlight the importance of identifying smokers as a potential vulnerable group for COVID-19 [54,58-60].

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-seventh-update-Outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-COVID-19.pdf