Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Since I got onto these total mortality graphs again, while the subject has come up I will likely compare the latest winter spike and earlier covid wave spikes to other notable waves of death from the last 50+ years soon. I've got daily deaths for England & Wales for every day from 1 Jan 1970 onwards, and on Friday I think Decembers data will be published in that format so I'll be able to make some direct comparisons. I probably did a version of this comparison some years ago, but obviously we now have more data since then and a rather messy picture of different factors to consider for 2022.

 

[teuchter]

Excessive heat.

Ah right, yes of course.

 

[elbows]

The data in the monthly report I mentioned stopped at an awkward moment so I dont be doing the thing with total deaths that I said I would, it will have to wait till next month.

Todays weekly ONS deaths report has a rather high number of deaths in it, but this is laggy and is also deaths by registration date rather than by date of death, so its just reflecting what we'd already seen in other graphs/data, the spike at the end of last year.

 

[2hats]

UK first/autumn open booster campaign to close on 12 February.

Thereafter an annual autumn booster may be offered for 50+ and the clinically vulnerable, with highest risk groups perhaps also being offered a spring booster as well.

JCVI advises an autumn COVID-19 vaccine booster

JCVI makes interim recommendations to government on the COVID-19 vaccination programme for 2023.

www.gov.uk

 

[kabbes]

This “open booster” was also only for the 50+ and clinically vulnerable, though, wasn’t it? If it wasn’t then I want my booster!

 

[2hats]

This “open booster” was also only for the 50+ and clinically vulnerable, though, wasn’t it? If it wasn’t then I want my booster!

For the under 50s it is closing down the offer of the first booster ie third dose.

 

[CH1]

Sorry - this is not UK - but here is the USA S.A.D. lobby (Sudden Adult Death)
Mark you the MSNBC presentation is as shrill as the loons.

 

[elbows]

Covid situation seems to be at the typical tipping point moment again. Lots of data still showing falls but other data implying we reached the bottom of the trough after the last wave, and that things have started going back up again. ZOE estimates have started to show rises, hospital data is a mixed picture of falls but also some rises, apparently including in 'infections likely caught in hospital' data which is often a good indicator of a new wave as far as I'm concerned.

A lot of expectations stated earlier in January were that the XBB1.5 variant (AKA Kraken) would cause a wave, and the school holiday effect will also have worn off by now.

 

[elbows]

Ah right, yes of course.

By the way I was looking at various data again and it was probably not a good idea for me to simply attribute that death spike to the hot weather alone. It would probably have been better to think of it as a combination of factors, since in addition to the weather there was a covid wave peak around that time too, and associated strain on hospital services. And when multiple factors overlap this obviously increases the problems and the amount of deaths.

Likewise the unpleasant amount of death in December is probably best looked at in terms of hospital pressure, covid wave peak, flu wave peak, and to varying extents cold weather.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Possibly a stupid question and almost certainly already answered in this thread, but how does anyone compiling data for cases around the country know how many current cases there are given nobody has to record their positive result any more?

 

[maomao]

Possibly a stupid question and almost certainly already answered in this thread, but how does anyone compiling data for cases around the country know how many current cases there are given nobody has to record their positive result any more?

They must still be taking random samples and extrapolating from that.

 

[maomao]

I've got it today. Recognised the sore throat and dry cough right away so dug out a test. At least my third round and three vaccines too. Comparatively mild so far.

 

[cesare]

I've got it today. Recognised the sore throat and dry cough right away so dug out a test. At least my third round and three vaccines too. Comparatively mild so far.

GWS

 

[elbows]

They must still be taking random samples and extrapolating from that.

Yes the ONS infection survey, done using sampling from private households, is the main reliable way to estimate case numbers these days. Other data never captured the full picture and has been especially useless since routine free mass testing ended.

Some articles about how the ONS thing works:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey methods article

blog that explains why we trust the data from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Most recent ONS survey results:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in private residential households in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, including regional and age breakdowns. This survey is delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health...

www.ons.gov.uk

The ONS results are often laggy by several weeks though, which is why an alternative, the ZOE survey, is useful for a more timely indication. Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

 

[elbows]

Covid indications in various data did show an increase, but thankfully it hasnt exactly exploded at giddy pace so far. For example various hospital indicators are showing an increase week on week, but so far resembling a linear increase rather than an exponential one. As usual, its impossible to predict quite how this will evolve in the coming weeks, and there is also substantial regional variation. There has been an increase in number of reported outbreaks in care homes compared to the previous week, but its been a very long time since such matters were dwelt on in the media etc. Proportion of 'Kraken' cases continues to increase but in published official surveillance that story is still quite a way away from the point where this variant would be called dominant. But there might be other data sources about that which are more timely that I havent looked at. It hasnt caused a wave of high significance within the timescale some originally predicted, but I dont know as that offers all that many clues about the future either, its still a bit early to reach conclusions.

 

[elbows]

I was a bit out of date when going on about 'Kraken' (X.B.B.1.5). Because there is also 'Orthrus' (CH.1.1). Both of these have growth advantages that are causing them to increase in terms of total proportion of detected cases, and are expected to drive ongoing increases in infection incidence rates in the UK. They havent got enough data to determine with good confidence whether there is any change to hospitalisation risk yet. They think there may be signals of further decreases to vaccine effectiveness when met with these variants, but again they havent got enough data to put very useful numbers on that yet.

When reading the recent variant technical briefing to learn about the above, I couldnt help but notice this bit, which we probably need to include int he list of explanations for why the deaths from all causes picture wasnt much fun to look at in the 2nd half of 2022:

An increase in infection hospitalisation risk was observed over the summer of 2022; however, the most recent estimates have shown signs of a plateau. The latest estimate will not yet reflect any changes in severity from the recent growth in XBB.1.5.

In a sane society with fully functional, well rounded media, public health communications etc we might hope that this might have actually gained some reasonable attention in 2022, but I dont think it really did in the grand scheme of things. I dont spend all that many hours per week on the pandemic these days so I'm not too surprised I didnt explicitly notice official info about this factoid till now. I might have seen a different version of it tentatively acknowledged but expressed in slightly different terms, that one of the previous Omicron variants that popped up part way through 2022 increased the hospitalisation risk. But what often happens is that early indications of that sort of thing arent stated with high confidence, pending further data, and then by the time the picture solidifies the firmed up version doesnt end up generating news headlines.

The quote is from this document which I will probably discuss for some additional reasons on the Covid mutation thread shortly:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1135877/variant-technical-briefing-50-10-february-2023.pdf

 

[cuppa tee]

i read about a few cases of marburg virus the other day in equatorial guinea and cameroon which is not great news.
today i see this on twitter....



note there is no link to thhe actual story but some peeps seem to think it refers to london zone 3

the thread is both hilarious and deeply disturbing in terms of peoples stupidity.



* i think this might be the guy from stock aitken waterman.

 

[iona]

i read about a few cases of marburg virus the other day in equatorial guinea and cameroon which is not great news.
today i see this on twitter....

View attachment 363797

note there is no link to thhe actual story but some peeps seem to think it refers to london zone 3

the thread is both hilarious and deeply disturbing in terms of peoples stupidity.



* i think this might be the guy from stock aitken waterman.

Fucksake I clicked on that twitter link and just a few posts down in the replies there's already someone linking the zone 3 thing to 15 minute cities, complete with random infographic thing from Canterbury

 

[gentlegreen]

What is it with people in the music business ?
cocaine and meth ?

I was initially confused with "the Wagner group" ...

 

[CH1]

What is it with people in the music business ?
cocaine and meth ?

I was initially confused with "the Wagner group" ...

George Bernard Shaw apparently thought the Ring of the Nibelung was Marxist (which he as a socialist approved of).
On the other hand the Wagner group is so called because the founder/CEO thinks Wagner inspired Hitler.

Possibly there might be room for an exploration of PROJECTION. I have a real tendency to paranoia myself, and I think people actually find conspiracy theories enjoyable. I would say that Brexit and the situation about Gay Marriage in the Church of England are both situations where mass support for polarised positions was easily mobilised playing on natural paranoia - on both sides.

I will see both things in play perhaps tomorrow. I'm on an official ward visit to a SLAM hospital tomorrow - followed by a performance of the Rinegold (English version at ENO),
Will there be mass Covid testing tomorrow morning?
And will ENIOs Wagner be neo Marxist?

The Rhinegold review – witty and insightful, Jones’s production delivers an emphatic win for ENO

The Rhine shimmers, the gold dazzles and the gods posture – Richard Jones has by and large gone back to Wagnerian basics for his assured and cogent staging. In the pit, Martyn Brabbins and ENO’s orchestra add lustre

www.theguardian.com

I want to know what the Rhine maiden is doing looking in Alberich's shorts!

 

[elbows]

Because even I have limits as to how much I want to talk about the pandemic 3 years later, and because its the fucking Telegraph with their own agenda, I dont know how much I'm going to cover their 'lockdown files' and the very many articles they will be publishing as a result of getting all those Whatsapp messages.

I guess I'll pick on a few here and there. And I'll try to be clear to put the timing of the messages in context.

So here for example we have a story that shows Johnson in his typical mode. This is from the period in between the two really bad waves, when complacency was setting in again, when the NHS wasnt under terrible strain, and when Johnsons 'conversion' after getting seriously ill himself seems to have worn off.

Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance raised concerns about shielding - y…

archived 1 Mar 2023 12:24:54 UTC

archive.ph

Some of Johnsons shit:

“If you are over 65 your risk of dying from Covid is probably as big as your risk of falling down stairs. And we don’t stop older people from using stairs. What do you think ?” said Mr Johnson.

Over two weeks later, Mr Johnson again brought up the topic, this time after reading an article in the Financial Times.

He claimed that if he was an 80-year-old told to choose "between destroying the economy and risking my exposure to a disease that I had a 94 per cent chance of surviving I know what I would prefer".

Yes we know you love the mayor from Jaws you useless fucking shit.

Sir Chris backed the idea of personal choice as “entirely reasonable at a personal level”.

“People can rationally make an informed choice they would rather take a small increased risk of dying and hug their grandchildren / go clubbing. Personally I would think twice before shielding unless it threatened the NHS,” he said.

However, he added that “one of the problems with shielding Mark 1 was that some (maybe many) people thought they were shielding to protect the NHS and others when, other than at the peak of the first wave, they were mainly doing it to protect themselves.”

So when it comes to timing and context, its important to note that Whitty can only make that last remark because the 2nd wave hadnt massively ramped up and put the NHS under strain again when he said it. His tune will have evolved again later. And the other stuff he said is pretty consistent with the impression he gave all along, that he was often reasonable but that his sense of balance was typical UK establishment stuff, found wanting during certain crucial periods of this pandemic.

 

[elbows]

I dont want to have to keep going on about the Telegraphs agenda and how they will try to have it both ways in these stories. So I'll try to get it out of the way quickly.

This article featuring fucking Telegraph readers responses rather underlines the contradictions. Some of them are idiots who thought the response was an overreaction. Some focus on the care home deaths. Others think lockdowns were a huge crime against humanity. And the Telegraphs spin is much the same, they want to have their cake and eat it when it comes to all this stuff. Featuring the same fallacies as we heard all the way along, the idea that we should have been able to magically protect the vulnerable and actually care about saving them from death, without inconveniencing everyone else. In reality you cant do that, and we saw what lengths actual shielding required when it came to the Queen, with her staff living in a bubble on site.

'The messages show a blatant disregard for human quality of life'

archived 1 Mar 2023 15:09:54 UTC

archive.ph

 

[pogofish]

Am I really seeing on the news that the Tories are now trying to blame their masks/distancing in schools decision on Boris and Co being feart of getting into a row with Nicola Sturgeon?

 

[elbows]

Thats one of the angles and again its being driven by how the Telegraph are choosing to report on the trove of messages.

But even that narrow angle wasnt just about avoiding a fight with Sturgeon. It was about avoiding fighting a losing battle for other reasons including public perceptions once Scotland had taken that stance. eg concerns about how it would look if England carried on with its original plan regardless, worries about nervous parents, a sense that a u-turn would probably become inevitable yet again at some point.

And the Telegraph today are leading with another angle to the Jan 2021 schools policy, that of the struggle between Hancock and Williamson about whether to have kids return to school at all.

For me that mess was the consequence of letting that second wave grow so large, a situation that made a lockdown that included school closures rather inevitable given the pressure that wave was exerting on the NHS. Again shitheads like the Telegraph that make out that their focus is on the damage done to children were actually part of the problem, they helped set that sorry scene. Because they were not in favour of the sort of pandemic policies in other policy areas that could have hoped to create conditions that would allow schools to operate rather than fostering conditions for the virus in the preceding months that made school closures far more inevitable. That winter was always going to be a challenge, and those who set the scene by resisting circuit breakers and other sensible policies in September 2020 made the challenge even greater with their stubborn ignorance.

We can see from certain other countries what it took to minimise school disruption. It required not only all sorts of sensible and timely mitigating policies within schools themselves, and an appropriate sense of timing, priorities and funding, but also to keep the overall wave numbers down by taking early action in other areas, nipping things in the bud in a way that made lockdowns of the toughest variety shorter, made it possible to close schools for less time than the UK had to. Denmark is one example where reports on the detail of that are available.

So its no good just focussing on the areas where evidence of the effects of a particular schools policy werent that strong, on areas where the likes of Whittys sense of balance led to lukewarm comments about how much difference a particular masking policy would make. Because its also about the total effect that other forms of quibbling at key moments and failures over many months had on the situation, forcing UK PLC to belatedly slam on the breaks in a crude manner that had implications for the wellbeing of children and everyone else. Some of the spin and reporting of this stuff now is a sign that this country has learnt previous little from that and will repeat those same cold, ultimately counterproductive calculations again if faced with a similar situation.

I've also been saying for years that the impact on pandemic waves of shutting schools isnt just about transmission in children, its also about what effect shutting schools has on adult mixing patterns and the behaviour of people during broader lockdowns. That school closures affected peoples ability to carry on with normal work routines and any sense of normalcy is likely one of the reasons such closures have such a notable impact.

Also in all the subsequent waves we can see the same patterns over and over again, whenever there is a school holiday it tends to show pretty clearly up in the data and people have got used to seeing waves diminish once school holidays kicked in. So I think it is reasonable to suggest that schools being closed does act as a circuit breaker.

 

[elbows]

But no, as far as the Telegraph is concerned its just another opportunity to indulge in their broader agenda and the usual crap personality-based soap opera angle...

Hancock is a fucking knobhead who made some bad mistakes in the first wave but did at least represent the camp that 'got it' later on and understood that history would repeat itself in the second wave unless strong action was taken to do things differently that time. So its hardly surprising that he was battling against the 'keep it open' brigade, one of whom was Williamson at this particular moment. That brigades claims to be putting kids first were superficial and were actually dooming those kids to a long period of disruption, and are still superficial and self-serving now.

 

[elbows]

The state of Johnsons maths, enabled by somewhat sloppy journalism and his own stupid bias.



There are 4 images in that tweet but I think I'll just highlight the first one:



In one of the later ones it is left to Cummings to point out that the 0.04 figure is actually 4%.

 

[2hats]

Though it really shouldn't be that surprising that de Pfeffel has a degree of maths literacy and reasoning that most 11 year olds could better.

 

[elbows]

Nor is it surprising that his attitude boiled down to:

 

[SpookyFrank]

The state of Johnsons maths, enabled by somewhat sloppy journalism and his own stupid bias.



There are 4 images in that tweet but I think I'll just highlight the first one:

View attachment 365181

In one of the later ones it is left to Cummings to point out that the 0.04 figure is actually 4%.

Johnson's fans will just wave this away by saying that maths has gone woke now.

 

[Artaxerxes]

When is the next round of boosters likely? Or have the government given up on those as well