Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

A tale of two front pages

Thanks for posting those.

I suppose an interest in propaganda is one of the reasons I got interested in paying this much attention to pandemics in the first place.

And I could not help but notice that a striking feature of this wave is that the press in England have mostly moved on from the 'pingdemic' and have been content to largely ignore that aspect, creating a misleading impression of how many people who are close contacts of cases have still been told to self-isolate this time.

They made much of the rules change that enabled the vaccinated to self-isolate less, but the updated rules still had a bit about how you are still required to self-isolate if NHS Test & Trace contact you. And recently, I think it was on the Johnson thread, I had a look into the statistics about those. And the recent numbers were rather large:

In the current reporting week, 946,805 (76.8%) were reached and told to self-isolate, an increase from the 777,907 (76.9%) were reached in the previous reporting week. 286,277 (23.2%) were not reached, an increase from 234,135 (23.1%) in the previous reporting week.

Thats from test-and-trace-week-84.pdf

I think this is worth mentioning again because regardless of whether I agree or disagree with peoples perceptions about how easily we may live with covid going forwards, I do think there are distorted perceptions in regards how much intervention has still been required in order to cope with the current Omicron wave.

 

[elbows]

Sorry, elbows, to hear about your brother and nephew. Wishing them well.

Cheers. There are other, more appropriate threads for me to talk about that if I feel the need, but I felt I should point it out here since this is the thread I have been getting overly animated in tonight, and I thought I probably should explain myself briefly. I mostly dont want to talk about it at the moment, I will try to wait till I can hopefully breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[wtfftw]

I dunno if it's been covered but I don't think there's any test and trace for school contacts. I only know that one of ftws crew is off because the dad messaged me.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I dunno if it's been covered but I don't think there's any test and trace for school contacts. I only know that one of ftws crew is off because the dad messaged me.

Not at present no. But we're having to plan for it being brought back in at five minutes' notice so we've still got to keep records of who is sat where in every lesson etc.

e2a: Lack of contact tracing means nobody will tell me if I've been stood six feet from a kid with covid for an hour or two. By a strange coincidence, staff absence rates are so high that there's no short notice cover staff available anywhere in this county. Agencies are ringing around anyone who has ever worked in teaching and still has a valid DBS.

 

[gentlegreen]

I just heard Alan Dove starkly suggest "in 5 years the virus will become its own vaccine" - and it struck me that at some point we may have to consciously de-mask and get exposure or we will be at risk of getting a worse disease outcome with a newly-naive immune system...

I have already mentioned several times that I'm reasonably convinced that at work over 40 years I was self-vaccinating by handling IT equipment in between users - so I had zero colds but annual moderate flu...
After 2 years living as a hermit, I was reluctant to visit my sister for the hostilities and not just because of covid ...

... unless they actually carry on giving older people (combined ?) covid / flu vaccinations ...

Spoiler: TWiV 839: The long and the short of it: get vaccinated

 

[elbows]

We've already seen i this and the previous wave what the general UK response to that sort of thing is - let people with less risk catch it, reduce the risk in vulnerable people via vaccines, antivirals and some of them being careful not to catch it. With a dollop of getting people to wear masks, work from home etc if the numbers game looks like it still runs the risk of overwhelming healthcare.

Some variations on that theme seem likely for the future too - eg yearly vaccination aboe a certain age or with specific clinical conditions. And then the hope is the other stuff wont be necessary to make the numbers work, but some of those other things will still be held in reserve in the event that there is a rather large epidemic wave at some point.

We are only part of the way along that path so far and a lot of my ranting is because of that, I will settle on a better balance eventually, providing we actually get a sizeable period where big waves arent a thing. Some other details will also firm up a bit this year, such as what sort of hospitalisation rates are expected if some levels of immunity wane too quickly for a yearly vaccination programme to have perfect timing. Im not going to guess about those things, I'll wait for more evidence and to see what happens with variants.

 

[Dogsauce]

Sounds like they’re planning to bin off all restrictions next week to try and save the Prime Minister’s skin. Nice to know we’re still ‘following the science’ then.

 

[Wilf]

Sounds like they’re planning to bin off all restrictions next week to try and save the Prime Minister’s skin. Nice to know we’re still ‘following the science’ then.

Just nipped out of work to get a sandwich from Budgens. Less than half of the customers had masks, which isn't surprising given the mood music from government. It's not just the rules that are in place, it's the lack of supportive messaging needed to affect behaviour.

 

[brogdale]

Dec 29th peak now stands at 246,261 cases:

 

[elbows]

Even the self isolation laws could be gone by March. Sounds like guidance would vaguely fill in part of the hole instead. I'll save any rants till nearer the time, and I want more data on various things in the meantime, including the impact of antivirals. The size of the current wave should after all lead to plenty of data on that front.

All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans

Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mation]

Even the self isolation laws could be gone by March. Sounds like guidance would vaguely fill in part of the hole instead. I'll save any rants till nearer the time, and I want more data on various things in the meantime, including the impact of antivirals. The size of the current wave should after all lead to plenty of data on that front.

All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans

Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus

www.theguardian.com

Wow. If that were the case, and my workplace followed it, I'd refuse to teach in class. Pretty sure my union, UCU, would go into bat on that.

 

[gentlegreen]

So "Freedom Day" 2022 is 1st April ...

 

[teuchter]

For those who feel that March will probably be too soon to remove things like mask mandates and self isolation rules - what would be your threshold for when it would be appropriate?

 

[Brainaddict]

For those who feel that March will probably be too soon to remove things like mask mandates and self isolation rules - what would be your threshold for when it would be appropriate?

From what I can tell from previous pandemics there will be a point when the pandemic is over in some sense. Covid will still be around of course, but the massive waves sweeping through the population will not be happening any more. I think it would be crazy to remove self-isolation when sick before that point is reached.

 

[souljacker]

For those who feel that March will probably be too soon to remove things like mask mandates and self isolation rules - what would be your threshold for when it would be appropriate?

I'm not so sure about the isolation rules. But I'd prefer to see mask mandates continued for the rest of the year. If the tubes and trains start ramping up the passenger numbers, there is no way I'm getting on without most people wearing masks.

 

[teuchter]

From what I can tell from previous pandemics there will be a point when the pandemic is over in some sense. Covid will still be around of course, but the massive waves sweeping through the population will not be happening any more. I think it would be crazy to remove self-isolation when sick before that point is reached.

Sure, but how do you determine when that point is reached?

 

[teuchter]

I'm not so sure about the isolation rules. But I'd prefer to see mask mandates continued for the rest of the year. If the tubes and trains start ramping up the passenger numbers, there is no way I'm getting on without most people wearing masks.

Why the end of the year?

 

[platinumsage]

I'm not so sure about the isolation rules. But I'd prefer to see mask mandates continued for the rest of the year. If the tubes and trains start ramping up the passenger numbers, there is no way I'm getting on without most people wearing masks.

If you're wearing an FFP2/3 then it's pretty much irrelevant whether other people have bits of cotton over their mouths, especially if you aren't talking to them.

 

[gentlegreen]

I imagine I will stop masking in shops when unvaccinated people my age are not going to hospital - in other words when it's no worse than a cold - or at least when yearly or six-monthly boosters are proved to do the job in preventing even moderate disease.
I'm fairly confident based on experience that my immune system will be making good use of vaccination ...

 

[souljacker]

Why the end of the year?

Because I like to think (and hope) that by then deaths and infection rates will be down to practically nothing. I'd also hope that in the event of a new surge, the gov can move quickly and reinstate the mask mandate.

 

[Spandex]

For those who feel that March will probably be too soon to remove things like mask mandates and self isolation rules - what would be your threshold for when it would be appropriate?

I'd just like there to be some kind of threshold for removing mask mandates and isolation rules, somthing we can look at and say 'yes, that makes it look like a sensible time for these things to end'.

Instead we've got a date thrown out there along with a flurry of other eye catching policies - acadamy hospitals, end of the TV licence, the military dealing with refugees and all the rest - just to encourage people to talk about something else, anything else, than Johnson and his lockdown parties.

Is March too soon? I dunno. Look at data not dates, as someone once said.

 

[teuchter]

But even if you "look at data" you still have to decide what data satisfies you that the time is right. >100 deaths a day? >50? >10? Or go by hospital numbers, or prevalence in the population?

I don't think anyone can make a very strong argument for any particular threshold, other than perhaps those related to hospital pressure.

For me I think it therefore has to somehow take into account what most people seem to be prepared to put up with. That's obviously something the govt will be trying to judge and make a call on. My feeling (which can never be an accurate or objective measure) is that "most" people are now moving towards a position where they don't think compulsory restrictions are appropriate. Obviously this could change if the numbers started going in a different direction.

 

[Wilf]

But even if you "look at data" you still have to decide what data satisfies you that the time is right. >100 deaths a day? >50? >10? Or go by hospital numbers, or prevalence in the population?

I don't think anyone can make a very strong argument for any particular threshold, other than perhaps those related to hospital pressure.

For me I think it therefore has to somehow take into account what most people seem to be prepared to put up with. That's obviously something the govt will be trying to judge and make a call on. My feeling (which can never be an accurate or objective measure) is that "most" people are now moving towards a position where they don't think compulsory restrictions are appropriate. Obviously this could change if the numbers started going in a different direction.

In terms of masks, there's certainly a decline in wearing them. But I don't see that as any kind of weariness, more a natural response to government drift, mood music, parties and the rest. Masks remain the easiest 'win' in the whole set up and wearing one should have been normalised by now. I'm not getting at more regulations or saying they should be worn forever, just that they are a clear public health measure that has attracted support, not least for the degree of protection they provide for the vulnerable. The government have fucked about with the culture of public protection, not least because they can't conceive of a public good, full stop (as we seeing with this big dog shite).

 

[gentlegreen]

In terms of masks, there's certainly a decline in wearing them. But I don't see that as any kind of weariness, more a natural response to government drift, mood music, parties and the rest. Masks remain the easiest 'win' in the whole set up and wearing one should have been normalised by now. I'm not getting at more regulations or saying they should be worn forever, just that they are a clear public health measure that has attracted support, not least for the degree of protection they provide for the vulnerable. The government have fucked about with the culture of public protection, not least because they can't conceive of a public good, full stop (as we seeing with this big dog shite).

I will never forget the crazy advice that was flying around at the start of this.
How can "cover your face" not have been the rule from the start ?
I did anyway, but based on advice I also built a MASH-style scrub-up station just inside the front door and very soon ended up having to sleep in rubber gloves full of coconut butter ...

 

[teuchter]

In terms of masks, there's certainly a decline in wearing them. But I don't see that as any kind of weariness, more a natural response to government drift, mood music, parties and the rest.

I don't think this is entirely true. Most of people hate wearing masks, and their willingness to carry on is affected by more than these things.

I hate wearing masks and am becoming weary of it. I don't personally care about all the no. 10 parties nonsense. It has zero effect on my willingness to wear a mask, which is affected by my perception of risk to me, my public health responsibility to others and whether or not I am becoming the mug who's the only person bothering in certain circumstances. The parties stuff is just a handy excuse for people who have already decided they don't want to wear a mask, or comply with certain rules.

 

[elbows]

But even if you "look at data" you still have to decide what data satisfies you that the time is right. >100 deaths a day? >50? >10? Or go by hospital numbers, or prevalence in the population?

I don't think anyone can make a very strong argument for any particular threshold, other than perhaps those related to hospital pressure.

For me I think it therefore has to somehow take into account what most people seem to be prepared to put up with. That's obviously something the govt will be trying to judge and make a call on. My feeling (which can never be an accurate or objective measure) is that "most" people are now moving towards a position where they don't think compulsory restrictions are appropriate. Obviously this could change if the numbers started going in a different direction.

I'll share my thoughts gradually rather than end up doing some really mammoth post.

In the longer term I am more interested in whether there are any permanent changes to the culture of working when ill, the amount of sick pay we offer in this country, and whether forms of mass testing are used to tackle other common illnesses so that we have a 'test not guess' system that could both improve public health and reduce the burden on the NHS.

I say this now because the talk of changes in March relates to the law, and that isnt the only aspect - guidance and advice also influences the behaviour of a fair proportion of the public. And people may be surprised at just how much we initially (and briefly) relied upon guidance as opposed to formal rules with consequences.

For example, take a trip back to February 2020 and marvel at how self-isolation guidance was initially presented:

Coronavirus (COVID-19): What is self-isolation and why is it important? – UK Health Security Agency

The official blog of the UK Health Security Agency, providing expert insight on the organisation's work and all aspects of health security

ukhsa.blog.gov.uk

Then note that much of the formal stuff and fines relating to self-isolation was done in September 2020, in conjunction with mass testing, a test & trace system, and some payments for some people forced to self-isolate:

New legal duty to self-isolate comes into force today

From today, people in England will be required by law to self-isolate if they test positive or are contacted by NHS Test and Trace.

www.gov.uk

Obviously that isnt the entire story of these fronts in 2020, we ended up with a bunch of other rules in March 2020 and a lot of those were focussed on much broader lockdowns, and we lacked the capacity to actually test the masses during the first wave. And there are other bits of the history that I havent looked up yet. eg I expect there were self-isolation rules of a vaguer sort for a period of 2020, relying on symptoms rather than formal testing.

But certainly at this stage I expect a bunch of guidance to remain after March this year, and that guidance will feed into what peoples sense of 'the right thing to do is'. Obviously I dont have high hopes for how high a priority the UK establishment will put into changing work culture in regards illness, or properly funding peopel being in a position to always do the right thing. But I dont expect all of this stuff to toally vanish in March, but it will move to a different phase and the extent to which a mass tst & trace system remains will influence the other details.

 

[brogdale]

Blimey.



& that's from a fairly hefty 30k+ British Electoral study sample (Wave 21) which was big enough to yield 478 REFUKers.

 

[elbows]

In regards the 'incidental' deaths conversation of the other week:

It turns out the ONS death certificate deaths for England & Wales do actually include some further analysis which I hadnt spotted before.

From the bulletin dated 3 November 2020, we have added two additional analyses.

This weekly release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions.

If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the coronavirus pandemic.

Deaths "involving" a cause include all deaths where the cause was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, as a main cause of death or a contributory cause. Deaths "due to" a cause are a subset of "involving", and only include deaths where the cause was the underlying (main) cause of death.

I doubt such things are a totally precise guide but they are some kind of guide nonetheless.

The most recent figures:

• The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 857 in Week 1, compared with 557 in Week 52 2021; for Wales, deaths involving COVID-19 increased to 61 in Week 1, compared with 24 in Week 52 2021.
• Of the 922 deaths involving COVID-19, 77.2% (712 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death compared with 78.0% in Week 52 2021.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region.

www.ons.gov.uk

I will go back and graph the figures from the start of this data being available when I get the chance.

I only noticed this additional data because the BBC reported on it. Some of their wording would not quite be my choice of words, as 'caused by' can be slippery territory, but anyway this is from the 10:42 entery of their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60035427

Some 23% of deaths “involving” Covid in England and Wales in the first week of the new year were not “caused by” Covid, according to figures just published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Doctors registering a death record all the factors that contributed to the death as well as the ultimate cause.

If Covid contributed, the death “involved” Covid.

The figure of 23% is basically unchanged from the last week of 2021 when 22% of deaths involving Covid were not caused by it.

However, it is sharply down on most of Autumn and the weeks leading up to Christmas when about 15% of deaths involving Covid were not caused by it.

There is a worry that Omicron (which is milder but infecting many more people) will change what the death figures mean: with fewer people dying from their infection but more people happening to catch Covid before they die.

These figures suggest that, so far, this has had some effect but that the large majority of people whose death involves Covid were killed by it.

 

[teuchter]

Did I imagine that there was a plan to start breaking down the hospital and deaths numbers on the main gov.uk dashboard into "with" and "for", quite soon?

 

[quimcunx]

In terms of masks, there's certainly a decline in wearing them. But I don't see that as any kind of weariness, more a natural response to government drift, mood music, parties and the rest. Masks remain the easiest 'win' in the whole set up and wearing one should have been normalised by now. I'm not getting at more regulations or saying they should be worn forever, just that they are a clear public health measure that has attracted support, not least for the degree of protection they provide for the vulnerable. The government have fucked about with the culture of public protection, not least because they can't conceive of a public good, full stop (as we seeing with this big dog shite).

There might also be a sense for a lot of people that this might be a good time to risk getting it while it's relatively mild if you are freshly boosted.