Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Numbers]

Dr David Nabarro on Sky News after the presser hasn’t exactly filled me with encouragement.

 

[LDC]

Totally fucking wild we're not having a 2 week tight lockdown to slow growth a bit and to get the data we're waiting on. Could do a 48 break over Xmas even.

People are dying now cos the NHS is fucked, what do they think it'll be like in 2-6 weeks time?!

 

[elbows]

Fucking Nick Triggle alert:

His dodgy analysis is currently included in this piece:

Covid: New UK cases record as Whitty warns worse to come

Prof Chris Whitty says Omicron is moving at a phenomenal pace, after 78,610 people test positive in a day.

www.bbc.co.uk

Questions about whether restrictions should be introduced are going to grow the more cases rise.

That is understandable. But it is also important to remember restrictions don't stop the epidemic - they just prolong it.

Fuck off Triggle you lying piece of pandemic shit.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

Fucking Nick Triggle alert:

His dodgy analysis is currently included in this piece:

Covid: New UK cases record as Whitty warns worse to come

Prof Chris Whitty says Omicron is moving at a phenomenal pace, after 78,610 people test positive in a day.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fuck off Triggle you lying piece of pandemic shit.

Fucking hell.

 

[Brainaddict]

Totally fucking wild we're not having a 2 week tight lockdown to slow growth a bit and to get the data we're waiting on. Could do a 48 break over Xmas even.

People are dying now cos the NHS is fucked, what do they think it'll be like in 2-6 weeks time?!

My guess is it will happen after christmas, if it happens at all. Which will be too late, but they've done that every time and poll well afterwards so....
I think what they'll do won't be total lockdown either, more like closing hospitality venues and forcing workplaces to close and limiting gathering size. I don't think they'll tell people to stay home and not visit friends and relatives. We'll see.

 

[kebabking]

We've chinned off a visit to the Panto in Worcester next week - it's the latest in a long line of planned stuff we've binned because a) planning for stuff that's likely to get binned anyway is a bit disheartening, and b) it just looks like begging for chaos with your bowl out.

I'm still 80/20 on the Fat Clown resisting any restrictions until after Christmas, but given that I'll be placing my John Thomas in the hands of a madwoman with a pair of scissors long before I take steers on what's wise from that drooling fucknugget, we're circling the wagons...

 

[Sue]

I'm still 80/20 on the Fat Clown resisting any restrictions until after Christmas, but given that I'll be placing my John Thomas in the hands of a madwoman with a pair of scissors long before I take steers on what's wise from that drooling fucknugget, we're circling the wagons...

Each to their own, we're all adults etc .

 

[LDC]

My guess is it will happen after christmas, if it happens at all. Which will be too late, but they've done that every time and poll well afterwards so....
I think what they'll do won't be total lockdown either, more like closing hospitality venues and forcing workplaces to close and limiting gathering size. I don't think they'll tell people to stay home and not visit friends and relatives. We'll see.

I'm not sure. Basically I think they're hoping to do what they wanted to do right at the start of the pandemic, that is have a 'rough' few weeks/months and then back to normal as quickly as possible. And the vaccine is a bit giving them the cover to try that now. I think they're also hoping the curve going up will go down as quickly, so as soon as numbers come down they'll be saying 'no need for restrictions, things are getting better' kinda thing.

That and all the internal Tory party stuff which means it'd be a huge struggle to get tougher measures through.

 

[xsunnysuex]

We've chinned off a visit to the Panto in Worcester next week - it's the latest in a long line of planned stuff we've binned because a) planning for stuff that's likely to get binned anyway is a bit disheartening, and b) it just looks like begging for chaos with your bowl out.

I'm still 80/20 on the Fat Clown resisting any restrictions until after Christmas, but given that I'll be placing my John Thomas in the hands of a madwoman with a pair of scissors long before I take steers on what's wise from that drooling fucknugget, we're circling the wagons...

Same here with the theatre tonight. As much as I wanted to see Ramin Karimloo. Not taking any chances.

 

[Sue]

I'm not sure. Basically I think they're hoping to do what they hoped to do right at the start of the pandemic, that is have a 'rough' few weeks/months and then back to normal as quickly as possible. And the vaccine is a bit giving them the cover to try that now. I think they're also hoping the curve going up will go down as quickly, so as soon as numbers come down they'll be saying 'no need for restrictions, things are getting better' kinda thing.

That and all the internal Tory party stuff which means it'd be a huge struggle to get tougher measures through.

What a fucking shit show. Ffs.

 

[elbows]

I'm not sure. Basically I think they're hoping to do what they wanted to do right at the start of the pandemic, that is have a 'rough' few weeks/months and then back to normal as quickly as possible. And the vaccine is a bit giving them the cover to try that now. I think they're also hoping the curve going up will go down as quickly, so as soon as numbers come down they'll be saying 'no need for restrictions, things are getting better' kinda thing.

That and all the internal Tory party stuff which means it'd be a huge struggle to get tougher measures through.

Yeah, a more extreme version of 'learning to live with the tory regime, oops I mean Covid-19' that we've been dealing with via the Delta wave since June.

 

[elbows]

Fucking hell.

I should have quoted the rest of it really. He mixes in a little more reality than he did at the start of the first wave, but is still a disgrace that ends up being one of the faces of UK PLCs cold, calculated pandemic shit.

It can be used to buy you time. Last winter the lockdown allowed the rollout of vaccines.

With more than 80% of the most vulnerable boosted the benefits of a lockdown are much lower this time.

The costs are the same, perhaps greater considering what people have endured so far in terms of the harm to jobs, mental health and education.

What would change the equation significantly is if the NHS is going to be overwhelmed, which would deny people basic life-saving care.

Clearly the NHS is struggling, doctors are pointing out care is suffering, but the situation is very different from last winter when over a third of beds were occupied by Covid patients.

Will that happen again? The modelling released so far is unclear as there is so much uncertainty.

Hospital cases could peak at half the level of last winter, or approaching double the level seen.

Some of those words may come back to haunt him again, just like they did the first time. In future, look back and remember where you heard 'the benefits of lockdown are much lower this time'.

Just for reference, this was what I went nuts at him about the first time around, back on Friday 13th March 2020: #1,164

 

[ska invita]

Totally fucking wild we're not having a 2 week tight lockdown to slow growth a bit and to get the data we're waiting on. Could do a 48 break over Xmas even.

Worth considering that a third of the Tory party just voted against Plan "Basically Do Fuck All" B, and are threatening to mount a leadership challenge off the very suggestion.

I appreciate that vote was filled with a range of messages to Johnson, but these swivel eyed loons would have an aneurism at the suggestion of a lockdown....until of course the situation gets out of hand and it has to happen way too late anyway.

 

[blameless77]

Everything about the situation is messier and even harder to predict this time, including the immunity and disease burden picture. The ridiculously low doubling time seen so far does rebalance things somewhat towards government taking action, but they always find a way to be late.

it's disappointing that they're not more on point regarding policy and nudging behaviour. It makes the job of those on the ground protecting from the fallout much harder.

 

[blameless77]

Todays version:



Also I expect problems with the test system data to start to affect the picture available via this data. This may take the form of people struggling to get tested but also increasing lag between tests and results being reported:

The website that you input your test results to will go down soon

No, it won't

 

[Supine]

Worth considering that a third of the Tory party just voted against Plan "Basically Do Fuck All" B, and are threatening to mount a leadership challenge off the very suggestion.

I appreciate that vote was filled with a range of messages to Johnson, but these swivel eyed loons would have an aneurism at the suggestion of a lockdown....until of course the situation gets out of hand and it has to happen way too late anyway.

And eight members of the Labour Party. I’ve still not managed to understand where they are coming from with that vote.

 

[ska invita]

And eight members of the Labour Party. I’ve still not managed to understand where they are coming from with that vote.

Hardline approach to "covid passports" i think?

Id rather not have those passed but its a nonsense really as ive been to a few music events this year and all but one asked for some form of covid passport thing.

 

[Wilf]

Well, the biggest threat to public health in a hundred years - and almost certainly the worst bit of that crisis - and we are trapped in a cunt off between boris johnson and the scumbag ultras in his party.

 

[killer b]

Id rather not have those passed but its a nonsense really as ive been to a few music events this year and all but one asked for some form of covid passport thing.

I've been to loads in the last couple of months and only one has asked for proof of testing - most places up here are just glad to have you through the door.

 

[elbows]

The Triggle 'analysis' I was ranting about earlier is now part of a longer Triggle article. The rest of the article doesnt generate more rants from me, and I am too tired to pick at some of the details I could pick at. I am about to mention one of them in another thread though, relating to future timing of case numbers.

Covid-19: A record day for cases - what does it tell us?

Two epidemics at once and the threat to the NHS - three takeaways on the effect of Omicron.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[bluescreen]

Dr David Nabarro on Sky News after the presser hasn’t exactly filled me with encouragement.

<snip>..."It is a very serious situation indeed. The rise you are seeing in the UK today is just the beginning of an extraordinary acceleration. There are two epidemics going on: Delta and Omicron, and it is an emergency situation for the British health service. It will get extremely serious within the next two weeks, perhaps quicker. [...] It's serious in the UK, it's serious for Europe, and it's serious for the world...."

COVID-19:

Dr Nabarro says that this is a 'very serious situation' for the NHS, adding 'today is just the beginning of an extraordinary acceleration'.

news.sky.com

 

[elbows]

Cases by age group for the London region using todays data. Keep in mind that these are cases by specimen date so the downward ticks, if you can see them, at the very end of the data represent data that is incomplete.

Also note the lack of testing in the first wave, which is why that wave is not well represented in this data but since testing was done on various hospital patients, older age groups case numbers show up a bit more for that wave.

 

[weepiper]

elbows you may find this interesting in light of your noticing how the media reported this (thread)

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the info weepiper

 

[Cloo]

My guess is it will happen after christmas, if it happens at all. Which will be too late, but they've done that every time and poll well afterwards so....
I think what they'll do won't be total lockdown either, more like closing hospitality venues and forcing workplaces to close and limiting gathering size. I don't think they'll tell people to stay home and not visit friends and relatives. We'll see.

Yeah, that's my guess - hospitality and club shut-down for January, maybe February too at most, to 'give more time for boosters'. For what that'll be worth.

 

[Raheem]

If this wave is a total disaster for the NHS then we'll look back on this press conference with the same contempt as the press conferences before the second half of March 2020.

We probably will. But will people?

 

[kebabking]

We probably will. But will people?

I think it's got cut through - every single one of the people from work, or who I bump into in the village or walking the dog, or at the school gate (Uber safe Tory shires seat) thinks that Johnson is repeating the mistakes he's made before - leaving it too late, full of misplaced bluster, and it will all come crashing down like it has done several times, and in exactly the same way, has it's done before.

Literally the only conversation is whether restrictions will come in before Christmas or after.

 

[bimble]

I’m thinking, get a large pile of logs and food today and batten down the hatches, again.

 

[bimble]

I still want to know why the whole Xmas party scandal was dropped just in time to make it even more impossible for him to try to announce any serious changes before turkey day.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I still want to know why the whole Xmas party scandal was dropped just in time to make it even more impossible for him to try to announce any serious changes before turkey day.

What's the new angle though? Johnson still a perfidious cunt? We all know that and apparently it's fine so what else is there to say?