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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Also prepare for the possibility that a range of services in London including transport may be badly disrupted by then.

Yup, I'd advise people to be extra careful with all sorts of stuff now - driving, travel, house stuff, accidents, etc. Not the time to be having any emergency the next 2-3 months. Expect disruption and possibly a much lower level of effective services in a whole load of areas - not just health.
 
nyone have any idea how risky it would be for me to travel through London to my sister's place in Chatham on the 22nd? What would be an appropriate level of caution for such an undertaking? I'm double-jabbed but haven't had my booster yet.

Personally, if you're not driving, I'd get a taxi. Astonishing cost I know. Wipe down the surfaces, get a proper medical grade mask, and keep the windows open.

My eldest is coming down from uni in Glasgow - she was happy to fly or get the train (300 miles), but fuck that, I'm going up there to pick her up. It's a drag, and the full 1200 mile, 4 leg trip is going to take 4 days, but getting on PT seems about as close a way to guarantee getting it as you could dream up.
 
How would I monitor this? Seems like it could be the real heartbreaker.
If it gets bad enough it will show up in the news, but also keep an eye on service information for the relevant transport authorities.

Its hard to know at this moment quite how bad that side of things will get, and even if it goes to complete shit you may still dodge that bullet.
 
Once again I read a subtext - perhaps Whitty being resigned to the inevitable - that there now follows a period of "informal innoculation" with live omicron as the biotope - with the seatbelt of triple vaccination ...
 
Does anyone have any idea how risky it would be for me to travel through London to my sister's place in Chatham on the 22nd? What would be an appropriate level of caution for such an undertaking? I'm double-jabbed but haven't had my booster yet.

I take the HS1 from st panc a couple of times a week. Probably the best covid safe train I use :)
 
Personally, if you're not driving, I'd get a taxi. Astonishing cost I know. Wipe down the surfaces, get a proper medical grade mask, and keep the windows open.

My eldest is coming down from uni in Glasgow - she was happy to fly or get the train (300 miles), but fuck that, I'm going up there to pick her up. It's a drag, and the full 1200 mile, 4 leg trip is going to take 4 days, but getting on PT seems about as close a way to guarantee getting it as you could dream up.
It's the coexistence of this (entirely sensible) level of caution vs the number of works parties that will still be going ahead with something like government approval* that displays the madness of where we are at.

* At least an unwillingness to say 'no, pubs and clubs are a very bad idea at the moment'.
 
Is there a point at which the number of active infections makes mitigation measures close to pointless?
Not in my book. Such situations reduce the potential for what mitigation can achieve at best, but will still help some people avoid infection that would otherwise have been infected.

It is possible that the very peak part of this wave will be a quick one, going up quickly and coming down quickly, but there are still a lot of cases to be expected either side of the most prominent peak.

Also note from the UK handling of Delta what happens when few measures and behavioural changes are in place - high numbers of cases can persist for ages. Better to dampen that down even if the opportunity to significantly shrink the very peak has passed.

There will also be regional variations in timing, so even if some stuff comes too late to make a really massive difference to London for example, other places may see stronger results in terms of peak reduction.

Also the peak of overall detected case numbers may be built off of younger people, and older groups peaks may come later, so better to squish those as much as possible even if the opportunity to squish the younger peoples peak had already gone.
 
Is there a point at which the number of active infections makes mitigation measures close to pointless?

No, simply because there's no reasonably solid probability that the one infection that gets each individual won't be a bad one.

We're going to get right up to the limit of what the NHS in full war mode can cope with, and quite possibly over it - each, singular, non-infection/non-hospitalisation could be genuinely be the coin toss between both an individual's life, and the effective collapse of NHS capacity.

I wouldn't be surprised if by new year the hospitals are full, primary care is operating in the car parks of hospitals, and Ambulances are simply not an asset that leaves the front of A&E units. If you have a road accident, you'll be on your own...
 
This is an excellent point



It shouldn't be 'everyone get infected to support hospitality industry'


Is anyone really going out because they want to support the hospitality industry though? They're going because they want to surely - I don't see the numbers of people going 'I really don't want to go out due to Covid but I feel a moral responsibility to fund my local pub' being significant.
 
It might feel like that, but as has been said, no. Every case avoided is one possible death or needing hospital treatment less.
Yep. It wasn't my question but when she asked me i felt stumped for a moment. What you say makes total sense.
If i can just do a decent attempt at stopping my own self from catching it that's at least one less person who might be fighting for a bed and that's enough of a reason to steer away from the nihilism. It's not complicated when you look at it case by case like that, its just the huge numbers get in the way sometimes.
 
Yep. It wasn't my question but when she asked me i felt stumped for a moment. What you say makes total sense.
If i can just do a decent attempt at stopping my own self from catching it that's at least one less person who might be fighting for a bed and that's enough of a reason to steer away from the nihilism. It's not complicated when you look at it case by case like that, its just the huge numbers get in the way sometimes.
"One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic"
 
It might feel like that, but as has been said, no. Every case avoided is one possible death or needing hospital treatment less.
And in that context, what a fucking coward johnson is - came out with this at a vaxx centre today:
If you want to go to an event or a party, then the sensible thing to do, if that’s a priority... is to get a test and to make sure that you’re being cautious.

But we’re not saying that we want to cancel stuff, we’re not locking stuff down, and the fastest route back to normality is to get boosted.

I'm not suggesting there was ever some glorious age of public service, but he's not even bothering to 'lead', just navigate a path that keeps the loons in his party quiet.
 
The kids are due to finish school at 12 tomorrow, we've just had the email to say the church service has been cancelled - we're currently having a WhatsApp chat about whether we should just not bother to send them in tomorrow...

It ups the chance of being able to see my folks over the Xmas period, so I think we'll do it.
 
The kids are due to finish school at 12 tomorrow, we've just had the email to say the church service has been cancelled - we're currently having a WhatsApp chat about whether we should just not bother to send them in tomorrow...

It ups the chance of being able to see my folks over the Xmas period, so I think we'll do it.
In your shoes boots, I'd definitely be giving that idea serious consideration.
 
Is anyone really going out because they want to support the hospitality industry though? They're going because they want to surely - I don't see the numbers of people going 'I really don't want to go out due to Covid but I feel a moral responsibility to fund my local pub' being significant.
I don't think they are but I think it's the line implied by the government. They won't shut down but support these places which have high infection risk, but are saying 'Oh do stuff, but be careful' , largely because they don't want to have to support these businesses and want the public to put themselves at risk to do that for them.
 
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