Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Supine]

That's 78k with a largely vaccinated population.

Luckily they are mostly vaccinated

 

[MickiQ]

What are the death figures compared to this time last year?

 

[Wilf]

It's already has, over 10k more than on the 8th Jan.

My excuse is I'm a daft bastard with the wrong specs on (misread the spike in Jan as being over the 80k line, when it was actually over the 60k):

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Or perhaps I was looking at the figures per specimen date.

 

[StoneRoad]

Just looked at the dashboard.

Yikes !

 

[StoneRoad]

What are the death figures compared to this time last year?

15th Dec - today 165 compared to 506 last year [459 within 28 days]

 

[Flavour]

Ok I think it's time to cancel my plans to come to the UK for christmas. just way too risky

 

[teuchter]

London:




Lambeth (south London):

 

[Wilf]

Question for the Prime Minister: would you still recommend people to go ahead with their Christmas parties?

Prediction for 5.00 (or whenever he turns up): he'll wibble his way round to saying 'up to individuals, make your own assessment about risk, fart, bloop, whimper...'

 

[MickiQ]

15th Dec - today 165 compared to 506 last year [459 within 28 days]

Thanks! that's a hell of a drop, I know that's just one days figure but my take away from that is vaccinations are a brilliant wheeze but sadly not quite the universal solution we were led to believe they might be.

 

[Wilf]

Thanks! that's a hell of a drop, I know that's just one days figure but my take away from that is vaccinations are a brilliant wheeze but sadly not quite the universal solution we were led to believe they might be.

Certainly gives the lie to the tory's notion that vaccination + minimal restrictions does the trick.

 

[cupid_stunt]

What are the death figures compared to this time last year?

15th Dec - today 165 compared to 506 last year [459 within 28 days]

Daily numbers are always up & down, better to look at a 7-day period up to 15th Dec.

This year 805, last year 2,975.

 

[two sheds]

Thanks! that's a hell of a drop, I know that's just one days figure but my take away from that is vaccinations are a brilliant wheeze but sadly not quite the universal solution we were led to believe they might be.

Don't let elbows catch you saying that

 

[elbows]

Argh my eyes...

 

[redsquirrel]

You don't like hula hoops elbows ?

 

[gentlegreen]

 

[LDC]

Whitty giving the realistic view on all the 'it's milder' chatter.

 

[elbows]

Observe the extent to which the authorities are so much more comfortable when they can just point to a vaccination programme at the expense of focus on all the other things. Obviously politicians take this even further and the likes of Whitty still mention some of the other aspects, but this sort of response is the default establishment response here and the lack of vaccines in the first waves forced them into territory that was far less comfortable for them. Not that they have truly escaped the other difficult territory this time around.

 

[T & P]

Argh my eyes...

View attachment 300952I

If I had Photoshop on my computer I'd so stick a goatsee there...

 

[xenon]

Can someone explain, the hospitalisation rate. Is that right it was 22% for Delta? Meaning one in five people who are infected go to hospital? That seems much higher than I thought. How many did we have in hospital maximum, at the peak? It doesn’t seem to tally.

 

[elbows]

Well one big problem with those rates is it depends on how much testing, and therefore number of cases, a country manages to detect. More reliable estimates will need to be based on a more nuanced approach to how many cases there really were.

 

[elbows]

Also some figures are not presented as proportion of cases hospitalised, but rather increases or reductions in the personal risk of hospitalisation from one strain vs another strain. I'm afraid I dont have time to get into specific figures in specific studies right now.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Can someone explain, the hospital a ties Asian rate. Is that right it was 22% for Delta? Meaning one in five people who are infected go to hospital? That seems much higher than I thought. How many did we have in hospital maximum, at the peak? It doesn’t seem to tally.

I think (from the Omicron thread) that 22% is delta cases who have been hospitalised needing ICU treatment, not 22% of delta cases being hospitalised.

 

[_Russ_]

The website that you input your test results to will go down soon

 

[tommers]

Can someone explain, the hospital a ties Asian rate. Is that right it was 22% for Delta? Meaning one in five people who are infected go to hospital? That seems much higher than I thought. How many did we have in hospital maximum, at the peak? It doesn’t seem to tally.

that was over 65s I think.

 

[elbows]

Given the very many millions of infections we've had since June in the UK, I dont think Whitty managed to make his point about immunity in South Africa compared to immunity in the UK properly today.

 

[elbows]

If this wave is a total disaster for the NHS then we'll look back on this press conference with the same contempt as the press conferences before the second half of March 2020.

 

[MickiQ]

Daily numbers are always up & down, better to look at a 7-day period up to 15th Dec.

This year 805, last year 2,975.

So that's an average of 115 vs an average of 425 a 70%+ drop. I don't think anyone could think that 300 people a day NOT dying is anything other than a good thing.

 

[Flavour]

If this wave is a total disaster for the NHS then we'll look back on this press conference with the same contempt as the press conferences before the second half of March 2020.

pretty sure it will be. those case numbers are going to continuing going up while the message is not "stop socializing"

 

[elbows]

pretty sure it will be. those case numbers are going to continuing going up while the message is not "stop socializing"

Lots of behaviours will change even when the central messaging has dodgy aspects.

There are many uncertainties about the exact scale of hospitalisations to come for a whole bunch of reasons. I have a broad range of possibilities in mind but many parts of that range are terrible. I've mostly been expecting an intense catastrophe. Other outcomes are not impossible but will require rather a lot of different sorts of good news to come true in order to stand a chance of coming to fruition.

 

[Artaxerxes]

If this wave is a total disaster for the NHS then we'll look back on this press conference with the same contempt as the press conferences before the second half of March 2020.

Any press conference held by Johnson is, by definition, worth nothing but contempt.