Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

As expected when I talked about the NHS releasing the figures that break down covid admissions/diagnoses into two categories, the Telegraph has gone ahead and made a crappy front page out of it.

Never forget their pandemic attitude. Their attempts to distort and mislead are numerous and disgusting. They took the stance below long before any numbers were available, and they were going to say it whatever the numbers turned out to be. They are divorced from practical reality. Indeed as I said earlier, the NHS already took steps to address some of this shit when they released the figures. Stuff I wont repeat right now but suspect I will have further cause to repeat at some point.

 

[elbows]

Oh maybe I should quote it again so that it sits next to their shit.

The majority of inpatients with Covid-19 are admitted as a result of the infection. A subset of those who contract Covid in the community and are asymptomatic, or exhibited relatively mild symptoms that on their own are unlikely to warrant admission to hospital, will then be admitted to hospital to be treated for something else and be identified through routine testing. However these patients still require their treatment in areas that are segregated from patients without Covid, and the presence of Covid can be a significant co-morbidity in many cases. Equally, while the admission may be due to another primary condition, in many instances this may have been as a result of contracting Covid in the community. For example research has shown that people with Covid are more likely to have a stroke (Stroke Association); in these cases people would be admitted for the stroke, classified as ‘with’ Covid despite having had a stroke as a result of having Covid.

The headline published numbers in publications to date have been “inpatients with confirmed Covid” without differentiating between those in hospital “for” Covid and those in hospital “with” Covid. Recognising the combination of high community infections rates, with the reduced likelihood of admission for those who contract Covid in the community and are fully vaccinated, the Covid SitRep was enhanced to add a requirement for providers to distinguish between those being primarily treated ‘for’ Covid and those ‘with’ Covid but for whom the primary reason for being in hospital was non-Covid related. In practice this distinction is not always clear at the point of admission when the patient’s record has not been fully clinically coded. In light of this trusts have been asked to provide this “for” and “with” split on a ‘best endeavours’ basis.

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

 

[StoneRoad]

As expected when I talked about the NHS releasing the figures that break down covid admissions/diagnoses into two categories, the Telegraph has gone ahead and made a crappy front page out of it.

Never forget their pandemic attitude. Their attempts to distort and mislead are numerous and disgusting. They took the stance below long before any numbers were available, and they were going to say it whatever the numbers turned out to be. They are divorced from practical reality. Indeed as I said earlier, the NHS already took steps to address some of this shit when they released the figures. Stuff I wont repeat right now but suspect I will have further cause to repeat at some point.

View attachment 281194

Torygraph have been right shitehawks all through the pandemic, I didn't expect them to change stance.
They twist the stuff to fit their agenda, and always have done.
Personally, I think they fit right in (hand in glove style) with the covid recovery group MPs with all their shite.

 

[Cat Fan]

How plausible is it that the Euros could cause such a prominent spike? I'm not a football person myself...but would a few football matches really cause a large proportion of the population to act significantly differently to what they would have done otherwise? Are there many people whose nervousness about going to a pub is overcome by the desire to go there to watch a football game they could watch at home?

Lots of gatherings to watch it in people's homes, because pubs were strictly limited on numbers.

We know the virus transmits very well indoors so when you have multiple households (or just groups of young men) getting together to watch the football, including 4 high profile knockout games then it does make sense.

 

[Cat Fan]

As expected when I talked about the NHS releasing the figures that break down covid admissions/diagnoses into two categories, the Telegraph has gone ahead and made a crappy front page out of it.

Never forget their pandemic attitude. Their attempts to distort and mislead are numerous and disgusting. They took the stance below long before any numbers were available, and they were going to say it whatever the numbers turned out to be. They are divorced from practical reality. Indeed as I said earlier, the NHS already took steps to address some of this shit when they released the figures. Stuff I wont repeat right now but suspect I will have further cause to repeat at some point.

View attachment 281194

23% - less than 1 in 4
They get it right in the article text by saying "over three quarters... ..."primarily covid"".

More than three quarters is quite a lot. Poor decision by the editorial team to run with that headline. It's the headline that's misleading not the numbers.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Lots of gatherings to watch it in people's homes, because pubs were strictly limited on numbers.

We know the virus transmits very well indoors so when you have multiple households (or just groups of young men) getting together to watch the football, including 4 high profile knockout games then it does make sense.

The bit I don't get about the theory that the football caused a spike is the other side - the downward slope. I can see how you'd potentially get an increase in cases as a result but it's not like all those affected are going to isolate afterwards is it? So a return to normal might see a lower rate of increase but a rapid decrease? I can't see how that happens.

 

[elbows]

We dont even know yet how close to reality the daily positive test figures have been. Still waiting for a bunch of other sources of data about that to emerge fully. Things that look like massive drops via positive test data might be far more gradual in reality, and a plateau in reality might look like something else in the positive case data.

And there are so many factors that combine, none of which I can pick apart with any certainty, so I am mostly left with various forms of speculation. Much as I am happy to speculate about this stuff, I may as well wait and make use of more hindsight.

Certainly theres been rather a lot of self-isolation in certain age groups.

 

[elbows]

The bit I don't get about the theory that the football caused a spike is the other side - the downward slope. I can see how you'd potentially get an increase in cases as a result but it's not like all those affected are going to isolate afterwards is it? So a return to normal might see a lower rate of increase but a rapid decrease? I can't see how that happens.

It would help if we knew what proportion of cases occurred via super spreading. And what proportion of cases were dead ends where the infection was not passed on. Some opportunities that were available to the virus stopped being so available when term ended, euros ended, weather changed, mood music changed, levels of disruption changed etc. And when the virus is around in very large numbers, thats a lot of new victims it has to find all the time to avoid shrinking, it can do it with ease when its highly transmissive and when momentum is on its side via peoples behaviours. When behavioural changes kick in they have their own momentum too, number of close contacts can fall quite quickly, and we end up with a right tug of war I suppose. But as I was saying before we quickly end up with so many potential factors that there seems no reasonable way for me to work out which ones were the actual difference makers, or even what the current difference is exactly. If things keep changing direction then people will probably go on about the weather factor more.

 

[glitch hiker]

29k cases today. Perhaps not the viral apocalypse that had been feared - so far - including by me.

Honestly it's all very strange and hard to know what to think.

 

[elbows]

Starmer demonstrating that he doesnt know what he is doing in this pandemic. And that his interest is in trying to say popular things rather than public health.

End self-isolation for double-jabbed sooner, says Sir Keir Starmer

Labour is calling on Boris Johnson to bring England in to line with Wales on quarantine measures.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[brogdale]

Reicher on evidence of the impact of the footie from Indy SAGE:

 

[elbows]

The BBCs version of the hospital data story includes a quote from fucking Heneghan, but at least it finishes with a quote from Spiegelhalter.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said: "The main role for hospitalisation statistics is to indicate the pressure on the NHS.

"Patients with Covid have to be treated in a resource-intensive way, whether Covid was the primary reason for their admission or not, and even if they caught it in hospital.

"Therefore the total number in hospital with Covid seems an appropriate overall summary statistic, although this new breakdown does provide additional information."

Covid: Up to one in four admitted to hospital for other reasons

The government says counting all patients who test positive is vital because of the impact on the NHS.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

BBC article on the hunt for certainty over case numbers, including bits of info about how slow the ONS study is to reflect changes, and some Tim Spector quotes.

Hunt for certainty over Covid cases continues

Flurry of Covid data does not resolve debate around state of the pandemic in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Cat Fan]

The BBCs version of the hospital data story includes a quote from fucking Heneghan, but at least it finishes with a quote from Spiegelhalter.

Covid: Up to one in four admitted to hospital for other reasons

The government says counting all patients who test positive is vital because of the impact on the NHS.

www.bbc.co.uk

I can't praise Spiegelhalter highly enough.

 

[Cat Fan]

Starmer demonstrating that he doesnt know what he is doing in this pandemic. And that his interest is in trying to say popular things rather than public health.

End self-isolation for double-jabbed sooner, says Sir Keir Starmer

Labour is calling on Boris Johnson to bring England in to line with Wales on quarantine measures.

www.bbc.co.uk

So it's officially Labour policy to end isolation for double jabbed UK people earlier, but keep isolation for double jabbed travelers from other countries for longer? WTF?

What does Labour have against people vaccinated in the EU/US, some of which are British citizens?

Easing travel rules for those vaccinated in US and EU ‘reckless’, says Labour

Angela Rayner warns plan to lift quarantine for arrivals in England could allow in new Covid variant

www.theguardian.com

 

[teqniq]

worth a watch:

 

[cupid_stunt]

Good video, thanks teqniq, even if it did raise my blood pressure.

 

[two sheds]

I hope his papers are beyond dispute otherwise he's going to be out of the country fairly rapidly you'd imagine

 

[zahir]

 

[elbows]

That document is a pretty good primer for the subject in general.

I could pretty much quote all of it for being interesting, but obviously I cannot do that so here is just one thing I've picked out.

Variants can potentially change the transmission of the virus leading to different modes of infection within community or demographies associated with potential novel properties, for example a faecal oral transmission rather than respiratory. Examining other coronavirus in animals and humans show faecal oral transmission can occur as an efficient additional means of transmission as was the cases with SARS-CoV and transmission in the Amoy Garden Complex. There is not yet evidence for alternate routes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 but delta variant has been associated with increased frequency of GI symptoms.

 

[zahir]

Yesterday's Independent Sage briefing with some analysis of case numbers etc from Christina Pagel

 

[elbows]

Here is another SAGE document from July, looking at things in the next few months that concern the SAGE modelling group. Again I find the whole document interesting and I'm just picking out a few things to quote here.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007484/S1325_SPI-M-O_Concerns_for_the_next_few_months.pdf

As the force of infection increases with increasing incidence, it is possible that vaccines could be less effective than is currently estimated2. Vaccine effectiveness to date has been measured in a relatively low prevalence world with infrequent exposures. As infections increase, so will the number and strength of challenges from SARS-CoV-2 that vaccinated individuals will face. If vaccines protect against a given percentage of challenges, rather than a percentage of individuals, the effectiveness estimated to date may be overly optimistic.

Data gaps continue to limit SPI-M-O’s view of the pandemic and could mean that important signals are missed, or their detection is delayed. In particular, SPI-M-O are missing timely and linked data on vaccination status and hospital admissions. There is no national database of infection control measures used across different hospital trusts.

I know we get some hospital-vaccine status data, but as I've pointed out before the numbers included have only been covering a small fraction of the hospitalisations seen.

 

[Wilf]

worth a watch:

Brilliant.

 

[elbows]

Covid: Pulse oxygen monitors work less well on darker skin, experts say

Pulse oximeters, which spot falling oxygen levels, may work less well on darker skin, experts warn.

www.bbc.co.uk

I remember getting quite upset at how relatively little press coverage the warning in March seemed to get at the time, but I dont think I mentioned it here. I kept a link to this article from March:

Blood oxygen devices could be giving ‘seriously misleading’ results to Black people, experts warn

Factor may contribute to increased Covid-19 mortality rates of ethnic minority patients, researchers say

www.independent.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not a bad headline from the Sunday People.



Yes, they are going to offer inducements to increase the uptake in vaccines amongst younger people, which could motivate some that just haven't been arsed yet, or who are a little hesitate, but I fear it will feed into the paranoia of the anti-vaxxers.

Companies including ride-sharing app Uber and food delivery service Deliveroo have been recruited to drive vaccine uptake among younger age groups.

Ministers are hoping the push will help overcome hesitancy in 18-29 year-olds in England after it was revealed that just 67 per cent of the age bracket have received a first dose, compared with the UK total of 88.5 per cent of all adults.

As part of the campaign, Uber will send reminders to users to get the jab in August, along with discounts on rides and Uber Eats meals for those who get vaccinated. Meanwhile, Deliveroo and Pizza Pilgrims are offering discounts and incentives to customers who protect themselves from Covid-19.

Double-jabbed ‘half as likely’ to suffer long Covid symptoms - follow live

Latest developments as they happen

www.independent.co.uk

 

[gentlegreen]

I feel cheated

Though I would have wanted broccoli vouchers...

 

[kabbes]

It’s a great way of teaching younger generations that you should only do things if there is an immediate personal consumer reward for it, and you should never do anything communally minded straightaway because that means you won’t be rewarded for it. What wonderful lessons.

 

[existentialist]

It’s a great way of teaching younger generations that you should only do things if there is an immediate personal consumer reward for it, and you should never do anything communally minded straightaway because that means you won’t be rewarded for it. What wonderful lessons.

TBF, maybe it would have been more in keeping with current government policy if they'd structured it as some kind of pyramid selling scam...

 

[LDC]

TBF, maybe it would have been more in keeping with current government policy if they'd structured it as some kind of pyramid selling scam...

Yeah, or have a jab and get exclusive access to some of your friends personal data to enable you to promise to deliver kebabs to them in the near future made by someone with no cooking experience via an offshore company.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It’s a great way of teaching younger generations that you should only do things if there is an immediate personal consumer reward for it, and you should never do anything communally minded straightaway because that means you won’t be rewarded for it. What wonderful lessons.

It's not ideal, but if it helps in this particular unique situation, I am more comfortable with inducements than the threat of passports for clubbing, which I've never been convinced will happen, I prefer the carrot to the stick approach.

It seems to be working in other countries, and Washington state is even offering “Joints for Jabs”.

On Monday, the Washington state liquor and cannabis board announced the promotion, aptly called “Joints for Jabs”, that will run until 12 July. During the initiative’s run, state-licensed dispensaries can give age-appropriate customers, 21 and older, a pre-rolled joint when they receive their first or second dose.

LINK