Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

At this particular stage my stance is to be deliberately unsure about everything and not to have a strong opinion on what will happen next.

I suppose there are ways that football can start a fire which diminishes once the football socialising ends, as opposed to just carrying on buning ever greater numbers of people. Some percentage of spread involves dead ends, as we see when particular versions of this virus end up going extinct. So the underlying realiies are likely far more complex and messy than the simplified pictures we usually think about.

I only rely on positive test numbers during certain stages of waves, and we are into the period where for England my attention starts to shift far more to hospital figures instead. So far hospital admissions are still following the usual pattern (eg 2 days a week numbers in the North East drop and then go higher again), The next 3 days of admissions data will be my first proper opportunity to start looking for any signs of a peak in admissions, but it may take longer.

 

[glitch hiker]

Ok this is nuts

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

That's more than twice the official figure!

 

[teuchter]

Ok this is nuts

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

That's more than twice the official figure!

You're not comparing like with like. The Zoe study is an estimate of infections (tested or not) that is extrapolated from their sample of the population. The official figures only tell us the number of positive tests.

 

[elbows]

Yeah ZOE is trying to do the same sort of things as the weekly ONS infection survey and the REACT study.

Plus ZOE changed their methodology not so long ago and I dont currently know what to make of their figures really.

 

[LDC]

Ok this is nuts

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

That's more than twice the official figure!

My completely unproven suspicion is that the ZOE figures are in part picking up the upsurge in non-covid respiratory illnesses that are widespread at the moment as they have much wider symptom criteria than just the cough/smell/fever ones.

 

[elbows]

My completely unproven suspicion is that the ZOE figures are in part picking up the upsurge in non-covid respiratory illnesses that are widespread at the moment as they have much wider symptom criteria than just the cough/smell/fever ones.

But that upsurge started ages ago including in a period where their figures were too low, forcing them to change their methodology. Maybe I am wrong about this though, its just my first thought.

And actual testing forms some part of their study.

Problems they have certainly include the fact they dont have enough users from every part of society, and they have so many vaccinated users that they may struggle to have enough data from the unvaccinated population.

 

[elbows]

I know percentage positivity came up here in the last day or so. Its started dropping more obviously in the data now.

 

[elbows]

Updated analysis of vaccines and hospitalisations, based on the data that came out last week.

RProducts -

 

[elbows]

Probably not. The fall is across all age groups.

By the way falls in older age groups are happening a little later than younger ones, which is expected.

This is probably seen most clearly on the dashboard via the graphs they have for cases above and below 60, once you drill down to England, its regions, or individual places in England. Those graphs are laggy because they wait to make sure positive results data from the last 5 days of specimen dates are pretty much complete first. So in some places the over 60s still shows a rise or a plateau, the drop is starting to show in some places graphs but not others.

 

[Aladdin]

I find this a bit confusing

People shielding five times more likely to die of Covid, Scottish study finds

High-risk individuals were still much more vulnerable to catching virus and dying in first wave of pandemic

www.theguardian.com

So caught it from family members or delivery people or ...?

Frightening.

Were many of them in nursing homes?

 

[BillRiver]

Frightening.

Were many of them in nursing homes?

I'm guessing also some were in their own homes but with paid care staff coming in?

My mate has that. She is visited by carers 3 times a day. In the first few months of the pandemic last year her carers were given no PPE, and were travelling around the Borough of Camden by bus, visiting vulnerable clients. Eventually they were given some PPE, but they remained reliant on buses.

Her carers can't distance from her as she needs them for personal care.

 

[Yossarian]

Quarantine rules now eased for fully vaccinated arrivals from the US and EU, though the G20 country with the highest vaccination rate is being excluded for some reason.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-not-exempt-uk-quarantine-1.6120715

 

[editor]

It's still shockingly but at least it's going in the right direction

 

[_Russ_]

Petrol station and local shop by me now have staff not wearing masks, none of them.
Isnt it still the law that they should in Wales?, about 50% of customers also maskless and my area now has over 200 cases per 100,000 daily...pisses me right off I want to punch someone

 

[_Russ_]

It's still shockingly but at least it's going in the right direction

View attachment 280950

I still think its mostly down to reduced testing and other shenanigans but its hard to tell the Welsh figures only show cumulative testing so unless you make a note of figures every day you cant see the daily/weekly/monthly numbers

 

[Cloo]

It seems to me that at least 50% of people are not launching back into 'life as usual' - I gather 'worst case' figures were more based on everyone doing that. There's probably a certain amount of unconscious, natural lag in getting back to normal socialising, and there's definitely no mass return to office. I think a lot of people are going 'I won't do X while cases are so high' - especially as people are wanting to go on holiday, and I think quite a lot people are semi-isolating in the weeks before, as in avoiding the tube, crowded situations etc before going. People can be stupid, but I think most are smart enough to see cases are still high and if they can avoid certain situations, they should.

Notably seen a few friends offering theatre tickets for sale this week - I'm guessing they bought back in May and are maybe thinking better of it sitting in a theatre for two hours (daughter & sacrificed a trip last night for this reason).

 

[editor]

I still think its mostly down to reduced testing and other shenanigans but its hard to tell the Welsh figures only show cumulative testing so unless you make a note of figures every day you cant see the daily/weekly/monthly numbers

There's still plenty of testing going on. In fact the UK are one of the world leaders in terms of daily testing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Testing is down, from around 1m a day to around 800k a day in the last week or so, much of that will do with schools breaking-up & pupils not doing the regular tests, so that must play a role in the number of new reported cases dropping.

I was cautiously optimistic about the numbers dropping, but I am more suspicious now, the 7-day averages dropped by -15.4% on Sunday, and yesterday it was down by -36.1%, more than double the rate in just 4 days.

And, I am not the only one -

The decrease in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases released by the government each day "looks a bit fishy", according to a leading symptoms researcher whose study has shown infections are on the rise.

Professor Tim Spector, who co-founded the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, said a "sudden drop" in people testing positive for the virus in the government's data is "very suspicious".

His study has shown around one in 84 people are contracting the virus every day, which is roughly 60,000, whereas latest government figures released on Wednesday suggest 27,734 tested positive in the last 24 hours.

I believe the ZOE app has proven itself over time, so I think it's worth reading the full report.

COVID-19: UK's daily coronavirus data 'looks a bit fishy' - as major symptom study suggests cases on the rise

Professor Spector, the man behind the ZOE COVID Symptom Study, says reduced coronavirus testing and the impact of the "pingdemic" could be behind the "suspicious" drop in the number of daily cases recorded by the government.

news.sky.com

 

[hattie]

elbows Your updates on this thread have become essential reading for me - I really appreciate the time and effort you put into keeping us informed

 

[teuchter]

Testing is down, from around 1m a day to around 800k a day in the last week or so, much of that will do with schools breaking-up & pupils not doing the regular tests, so that must play a role in the number of new reported cases dropping.

I was cautiously optimistic about the numbers dropping, but I am more suspicious now, the 7-day averages dropped by -15.4% on Sunday, and yesterday it was down by -36.1%, more than double the rate in just 4 days.

And, I am not the only one -



I believe the ZOE app has proven itself over time, so I think it's worth reading the full report.

COVID-19: UK's daily coronavirus data 'looks a bit fishy' - as major symptom study suggests cases on the rise

Professor Spector, the man behind the ZOE COVID Symptom Study, says reduced coronavirus testing and the impact of the "pingdemic" could be behind the "suspicious" drop in the number of daily cases recorded by the government.

news.sky.com

Rubbish journalism in that article as usual - it says

His study has shown around one in 84 people are contracting the virus every day, which is roughly 60,000, whereas latest government figures released on Wednesday suggest 27,734 tested positive in the last 24 hours.

Of the roughly 60,000 testing positive according to ZOE data, 36,000 of those are unvaccinated and 24,000 have received at least one dose.

The "60,000 testing positive" according to ZOE aren't that - that's the ZOE estimate of how many people are infected, and that will include some people who've not had a test.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Rubbish journalism in that article as usual - it says



The "60,000 testing positive" according to ZOE aren't that - that's the ZOE estimate of how many people are infected, and that will include some people who've not had a test.

Yep, that was sloppy, ZOE's figures are always an estimate.

 

[Wilf]

The government are not releasing the age profile of the people taking Covid tests? Is that what he means? If so, astonishing.

He said: "Looking at our own data, there's a suggestion that we are seeing a reduction in the cases of the young and so they have been largely driving these figures for the last month or so, and that could be that less young people are getting tested.

"We are not able to easily get those government figures, but if the proportion of young people being tested is going down and older people is going up, that could explain this change."

 

[elbows]

elbows Your updates on this thread have become essential reading for me - I really appreciate the time and effort you put into keeping us informed

Thanks very much!

I have temporarily run low on things to say. But there are probably a couple of things I can come up with today. Nothing thats going to change peoples sense of the current picture though I dont think.

 

[elbows]

The government are not releasing the age profile of the people taking Covid tests? Is that what he means? If so, astonishing.

Data is available for the ages of those testing positive, as opposed to those tested. And can see percentage positivity in different age groups via things like the weekly surveillance report. More on this later.

 

[Wilf]

Data is available for the ages of those testing positive, as opposed to those tested. And can see percentage positivity in different age groups via things like the weekly surveillance report. More on this later.

Ta.

 

[elbows]

Spector is right in the sense that you shouldnt rely on the standard testing regime alone to give a sense of the picture.

I'd rather look for other sources for his words to see if the journalists left anything out. But before having done that, things I would add are:

The other population survey testing surveillance is important and fulfils a similar role to ZOE - weekly ONS infection survey and REACT studies.

I would listen to these people more if they talked more about Scotland and what has happened there, since Scotlands numbers also plummeted but are backed to a certain extent by later hospital admission figures.

Where is the campaign calling for the wastewater surveillance data for England to be made public? Scotland make some of this public. In SAGE and other documents from November last year they talked about putting a version of this data on the dashboard, but it hasnt happened. And this is important surveillance data that can provide something much closer to the true picture without having to worry about the extent to which the testing regime and peoples use of it has changed over time.

 

[elbows]

Data is available for the ages of those testing positive, as opposed to those tested. And can see percentage positivity in different age groups via things like the weekly surveillance report. More on this later.

This weeks surveillance report is available.

Here are percentage positivity by age group charts. I'm only showing the pillar 2 ones here, but pillar 1 is also available in the report.

That it fell in the 20-29 group and most other ages higher than that should provide a bit of reassurance that there is a real change beyond that which can be attributed to the testing system alone. Although clearly testing system stuff in relation to people under 20 is demonstrated by their positivity rates continuing to climb in this period.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007250/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w30.pdf

 

[elbows]

From the same report we can see the effect of school holidays but also an increase in care home outbreaks. And although its not easy to see in this graph, an increase in hospital outbreaks.

 

[ska invita]

From the same report we can see the effect of school holidays...

I forgot about school hols...the sudden drop off overlays very neatly on school break ups - must be a factor

 

[teuchter]

I forgot about school hols...the sudden drop off overlays very neatly on school break ups - must be a factor

But it appears to drop off in age groups older than school pupils, and it appears to drop off somewhat before end of term.

If school hols were the main factor (suddenly stopping transmission between under 20s) then you'd expect to see a drop off mainly in that age group first, and probably slightly after than the actual end of term. I think.