Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
oops, wrong thread!
Meanwhile, back to covid in the UK...
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
I would expect an increased chance of catching Delta in all situations where there are other humans present compared to previous versions of the virus.
I approve of Australia being far keener to point out specifics.
So the data is now showing hardly any difference across europe which was what I suggested anacdotatly. That post has been confirmed. I went on to question data collection and posed another theory. There is always varience in different cohorts and methods of collection. I am questioning even if it sounds like Im making a statement often.
bimble
floofy
Yes. Some just won’t be able to, some will not bother. But your idea that nobody will do it if they know others aren’t doing it is bollocks. As all the voluntary mask wearers prove. You’re just wrong.
Theres not much to suggest other European populations are behaving very differently. They have same protests, young cohorts getting infected, rule breaking. The virus globally is winning this apart from rich isolated countries in southern hemisphere who thought better of joining in
I didn't nobody, just compliance will be limited now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Wave timing still varies and your attempt to roll back on the claims you were quite prepared to argue with people about the other day makes a mockery of your position. Do not invite me to believe the stuff you are coming out with now about behaviours etc, much of which is true, is the same as your position the other day, which was based on other countries not showing as high a level of infections as the UK because of flaws in their testing system. The differences were down to differences in Delta wave timing, because the UK wave of that started earlier, with a larger amount of seeding.
Whether any of those countries have as big a wave as us will come down to variations in vaccination rates and prior infections and behaviours and rules, eg at what stage of the wave authorities impose new restrictions.
Whether any of those countries have as big a wave as us will come down to variations in vaccination rates and prior infections and behaviours and rules, eg at what stage of the wave authorities impose new restrictions.
bimble
floofy
You said people won’t do it. So I thought you meant people in general. Compliance always was limited. Your idea humans generally rush to do as little as we think we can get away with is where I think you’re wrong.
Yes. All that. I would think. Basically any place where there are mixed groups of people in fairly close proximity and poor to no ventilation.
Data accuracy varies enormously, don't really get why you think I'm rolling back. You have discussed this yourself before. If anything the data presented today has vindicated my point that it is laggy and inaccurate depending on origin and method.
Where Im not strong is my criticism of this countries financing of private business compiling testing data.
Where Im not strong is my criticism of this countries financing of private business compiling testing data.
RileyOBlimey
Well-Known Member
4 million excess deaths in India: Covid-19: India excess deaths cross four million, says study
elbows
Well-Known Member
Testing systems do not pick up close to every case, in that sense they are inaccurate.
They are pretty good at picking up overall trends and what stage of a wave countries are at. You picked a moment to make your point where the UK was well into its Delta wave, and the other countries in question were at an earlier stage of that journey.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Can see vaccine data for EU as a whole and individual EU countries using this website:
COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
The extent to which we will notice the implications of these differing rates play out in hospitalisations and deaths is currently unknown to me. Because that will depend on other factors too, such as how well protection of care home residents is going, hospital infection control, general population behaviours and what rules are in place at different stages.
Plus we dont yet know the extent of how bad hospitalisations will get in the UK.
elbows
Well-Known Member
After rather a long period of not wanting to claim too strongly that Scotland was past its peak, speaking at most of seeing a 'levelling off', Sturgeon is now ready to go further:
From the BBC live updates page at 12:53 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57898328
From the BBC live updates page at 12:53 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57898328
prunus
Tick tock.
Beginning of July.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And purely looking at positive test numbers by specimen date, Scotlands peak was June 28th-30th. Hence my comments about how long its taken the authorities to fully acknowledge this peak.
Impacts of schools closing on the testing system does need to be factored in, so when combined with other forms of infection surveillance the true peak may be somewhat unclear or may vary somewhat from the peak in positive tests.
Hospital admissions peak still to be determined, in part because they are only releasing that data weekly, with next set of daily admissions figures due tomorrow I believe. Peak of number of patients in hospital and ICU will lag still further behind, as will deaths.
Impacts of schools closing on the testing system does need to be factored in, so when combined with other forms of infection surveillance the true peak may be somewhat unclear or may vary somewhat from the peak in positive tests.
Hospital admissions peak still to be determined, in part because they are only releasing that data weekly, with next set of daily admissions figures due tomorrow I believe. Peak of number of patients in hospital and ICU will lag still further behind, as will deaths.
elbows
Well-Known Member
So those things are a big factor in my mind when I ponder the possibility that England could peak now, or certain regions could peak now or soon.
But obviously there are some differences between England and Scotland. Scotland did not reopen nightclubs at the same moment that schools were finishing, to give a really obvious example.
And we dont know how much difference the change in mood music over the last 2 weeks has made to behaviour. I expect its made quite a bit of difference, but there are so many things changing at the same time that I dont know how it will all stack up. If things keep soaring then nerves will grow in government and the media. I havent got too many means to predict, the modelling gave such a wide range of possibilities that me talking about Englands potential peaks right now might turn out to be a very bad joke, or may not end up so far away from the reality.
But obviously there are some differences between England and Scotland. Scotland did not reopen nightclubs at the same moment that schools were finishing, to give a really obvious example.
And we dont know how much difference the change in mood music over the last 2 weeks has made to behaviour. I expect its made quite a bit of difference, but there are so many things changing at the same time that I dont know how it will all stack up. If things keep soaring then nerves will grow in government and the media. I havent got too many means to predict, the modelling gave such a wide range of possibilities that me talking about Englands potential peaks right now might turn out to be a very bad joke, or may not end up so far away from the reality.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
But that's up to the 19th, when Johnson and Sunak decided to let it rip...
My mum was at a small picnic on Saturday with 8 other people. All over 70 yrs old, all double jabbed. Two of them (a married couple) tested positive yesterday (PCR), have symptoms, and are isolating.
They told my mum and the others this last night.
My mum has today decided, after a long phone chat with me, to isolate. Only one other attendee is isolating.
My mum wants data/research to share with them all, about how Delta variant is not just more transmissible in general (I've given her that) but about how it seems to be more transmissible outdoors, and with briefer exposure/contact times.
I have found some stuff about it but would be grateful for any other links on this anyone has please.
They told my mum and the others this last night.
My mum has today decided, after a long phone chat with me, to isolate. Only one other attendee is isolating.
My mum wants data/research to share with them all, about how Delta variant is not just more transmissible in general (I've given her that) but about how it seems to be more transmissible outdoors, and with briefer exposure/contact times.
I have found some stuff about it but would be grateful for any other links on this anyone has please.
This one of the reasons I trust what you say, and appreciate you taking the time to say it here, so very much. You are clear about what you know and what you can't yet know.
Also you seem to be proved right over time, every time, when you do say something decisive.
Massive respect.
there's this I guess
Covid Delta variant is ‘in the air you breathe’: what you need to know about Sydney outbreak strain
Delta strain is significantly more infectious but it spreads the same way as the original virus – including by ‘fleeting’ encounters and respiratory aerosols
COVID-19 Vaccines
Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.
www.webmd.com
There was also an open air event in Denmark iirc that prompted the government to rethink opening up after the virus spread. Unfortunately I have no links. It was an article posted just before Monday iirc warning about what happened there happening here.
elbows
Well-Known Member
You may be thinking of the Netherlands. It was well publicised that a festival there ended up being linked to 1000 positive cases. And they also saw soaring rates more generally that caused them to u-turn on having nightclubs open.
I believe the festival did feature large dance tents so it wasnt purely fully open air.
Australia has made quite a bit deal of pointing out the outdoor transmission risks from Delta, but part of the reason their public hear so much about that from them is that they are trying to squash infections there more comprehensively than most European countries have tried to, and so they go hard with their messages to the public.
I'm not that good at following every scientific paper that tries to look at things like how transmissible Delta is, because the limitations and timing of such studies tends to frustrate me. Its useful to do these studies but they often arent that compelling on their own, they dont manage to cover all the questions people have or thoroughly convince them, I think people often respond better to real world examples.
Personally I understand the importance of ventilation and how the risk increases when the quantity of virus increases, but I'm not too complacent about outdoor situations with people in close proximity. Especially not as variants have arrived with improved spreading capabilities.
I could put it like this: The number of infected people out there is the biggest deal when it comes to my sense of risk of picking up the virus. At really high levels, reassurances from being outdoors end up meaning far less to me. The relative safety of the setting cannot fully compensate for the higher chance of someone infectious being present, during peak periods where a significant proportion of the population are infectious. So at the current stage England is at, now is not a time I can make many reassuring comments about safety of certain activities. ie the opposite of what I was moaning about in regards the limitations of 'mass events' trials that were held during times of relatively low viral prevalence.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks very much
I dont know how to respond to such praise, normally I want to point out some of my mistakes, blow my trumpet a little, point out all the other people who have made valuable contributions throughout the pandemic, etc. But its warm, so I wont explore those things again now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I usually focus on positive cases by specimen date rather than reporting date.
So I note that whilst todays number of positive cases reported in the UK is not going to break any records, the UK has now managed to report 60,031 positives for the test specimen date of July 15th (last Thursday)!
It is currently unclear whether subsequent dates will be able to rival and exceed that number. I would rarely like to bet either way at this stage.
So I note that whilst todays number of positive cases reported in the UK is not going to break any records, the UK has now managed to report 60,031 positives for the test specimen date of July 15th (last Thursday)!
It is currently unclear whether subsequent dates will be able to rival and exceed that number. I would rarely like to bet either way at this stage.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And especially not betting based on figures that come out on a Tuesday, since Tuesdays numbers are sometimes a cause for relative optimism but then Wednesdays and Thursdays numbers lead to a reality check as case reporting catches up from weekend effects. And I wont be abe to tell the difference between that and genuine signs of a slowdown until a while after the event.
Thanks lots glitch hiker and elbows
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