Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[LDC]

It had a point, and it still does, as an important part of dealing with infection rates.

The minister isn't being gormless, but calculating. The government (or at least elements of it) are now angling to push everything and everyone 'back to normal' as quickly as possible, and fuck the consequences for people's health. And part of that is what the minster did, sow the idea that people can decide not to isolate if they get notified by the app.

 

[Petcha]

Oh and now Downing St is hanging that guy out to dry

No 10 insists it is 'crucial' for people to isolate when pinged, in rebuke to minister who implied otherwise​

Downing Street has effectively slapped down Paul Scully, the business minister, for suggesting it is acceptable for people to ignore a request from the NHS Covid app to isolate. (See 9.25am.) A No 10 spokeswoman said:

Isolation remains the most important action people can take to stop the spread of the virus.
Given the risk of having and spreading the virus when people have been in contact with someone with Covid it is crucial people isolate when they are told to do so, either by NHS Test and Trace or by the NHS covid app.
Businesses should be supporting employees to isolate, they should not be encouraging them to break isolation.

This suggests that Scully, and his business minister colleague Lord Grimstone, were freelancing when they started pointing out that people could ignore the app, and not peddling an agreed No 10 line.
At his press conference yesterday Boris Johnson stressed the importance of isolation as a means of controlling Covid, saying it was “one of the few shots we have got left in our locker”.

 

[xenon]

How do NHS test and trace contact people. As distinct from the app I mean.
The app, as I understand works like:
Person A, feels a bit rough, tests positive. If they're using the app they enter this and it pings phones that were nearby for 15 minutes within a specific date range.


NHS test and trace.
Persoan B feels rough, tests positive. Then what, NHS call them and ask for a list of contacts they've been near in the last few days?

 

[existentialist]

It had a point, and it still does, as an important part of dealing with infection rates.

The minister isn't being gormless, but calculating. The government (or at least elements of it) are now angling to push everything and everyone 'back to normal' as quickly as possible, and fuck the consequences for people's health. And part of that is what the minster did, sow the idea that people can decide not to isolate if they get notified by the app.

Plausible deniability, innit?

I wonder how Scully feels now, having been given the "fall guy" gig?

 

[LDC]

Business will love him. I fully expect some people now to be asked if they got told to isolate by the app or by T&T, and if the answer is the app, then their employer will tell them to come in anyway as it's only guidance.

 

[killer b]

NHS test and trace.
Persoan B feels rough, tests positive. Then what, NHS call them and ask for a list of contacts they've been near in the last few days?

Yeah

 

[cupid_stunt]

Plausible deniability, innit?

I wonder how Scully feels now, having been given the "fall guy" gig?

They should be getting used to it, TBH.

I can't remember who the minister was, doing the TV & radio rounds, on the morning the story broke about Johnson & Sunak not self-isolating, over 2 hours trying to defend the indefensible on various stations, and literally within minutes of getting the job done, Downing Street, seeing the outrage, issues a press statement saying they would be self-isolating.

Fucking classic.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It had a point, and it still does, as an important part of dealing with infection rates.

The minister isn't being gormless, but calculating. The government (or at least elements of it) are now angling to push everything and everyone 'back to normal' as quickly as possible, and fuck the consequences for people's health. And part of that is what the minster did, sow the idea that people can decide not to isolate if they get notified by the app.

Yep. Next round - stories about how many people are not isolating to promote the 'well nobody else is doing it so why should I' feeling that gives people the mental excuse to ignore it.

I think you could actually make a case for it as a more targeted alternative to lockdowns tbh - it might or might not be a good case depending on the numbers but it would at least be a coherent idea. They're just treating it as an annoying fly in their 'freedom' ointment at this stage though aren't they.

 

[Petcha]

They should be getting used to it, TBH.

I can't remember who the minister was, doing the TV & radio rounds, on the morning the story broke about Johnson & Sunak not self-isolating, over 2 hours trying to defend the indefensible on various stations, and literally within minutes of getting the job done, Downing Street, seeing the outrage, issues a press statement saying they would be self-isolating.

Fucking classic.

That was Jenrick. One of their better performers. The guy this morning - I love the description of his comments being 'freelance'. I wonder if Boris will ever actually do the media rounds himself instead?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here comes more travel chaos, Spain and Greece could soon follow France onto the ‘amber-plus’ list.

Data shows that cases of the Beta variant in Spain are nearly three times as high as France. According to the Gisaid Research Centre, 9.3 per cent of coronavirus cases in Spain were the Beta variant, compared to 3.7 per cent in France.

In Spain, the 14-day infection rate has now reached 377 cases per 100,000 people, and 613 in the Balearic islands, which include popular UK tourist destinations Ibiza, Mallorca and Menorca. France’s rate is far lower, at 63.3 per 100,000.

Whether Spain could be added to the 'amber plus' list as cases rise

Spain and Greece could soon follow France onto the 'amber-plus' list, throwing thousands of summer holiday plans into chaos

inews.co.uk

 

[editor]

Yep. Next round - stories about how many people are not isolating to promote the 'well nobody else is doing it so why should I' feeling that gives people the mental excuse to ignore it.

I think you could actually make a case for it as a more targeted alternative to lockdowns tbh - it might or might not be a good case depending on the numbers but it would at least be a coherent idea. They're just treating it as an annoying fly in their 'freedom' ointment at this stage though aren't they.

I've had the dullest 8 days of my life staying in to self isolate and it's not over yet, even though I've felt absolutely fine for days.

But the mixed messages the govt are giving out right now really makes me wonder how many people will bother to see it through.

 

[editor]

It's not looking good for a lot of other countries.

 

[IC3D]

Wish Id called in sick that week Ibiza was on the green list

 

[Raheem]

Not long ago, we had more cases than the rest of the* EU combined, so it looks like we're improving fast.

* Acid flashback.

 

[IC3D]

Its not going to happen, people will not isolate at personal cost if there is doubt anyone else is complying. The only measures that work are unvirsal. We are basically untrusting of others.

 

[gentlegreen]

Not long ago, we had more cases than the rest of the* EU combined, so it looks like we're improving fast.

* Acid flashback.

Brits going to Spain on holiday ?

 

[Brainaddict]

View attachment 279561

It's not looking good for a lot of other countries.

I'm assuming most countries are now going to have their own delta waves as India and the UK have. I don't see how it can be prevented without extremely strict border measures - implemented by only a few countries.

 

[editor]

I didn't realise that the Netherlands was doing so badly too.

 

[magneze]

The Netherlands PM apologised for opening up too early.

 

[gentlegreen]

Surely by now they should have some data about how people are catching it - i.e. public transport / workplace / children bringing it home from school ?

 

[elbows]

Its not going to happen, people will not isolate at personal cost if there is doubt anyone else is complying. The only measures that work are unvirsal. We are basically untrusting of others.

Large numbers of people will continue to self-isolate despite the bullshit of recent times.

 

[Cat Fan]

I didn't realise that the Netherlands was doing so badly too.

View attachment 279568

They opened bars and nightclubs just before the big surge. Reminds me of somewhere else...

 

[Raheem]

Surely by now they should have some data about how people are catching it - i.e. public transport / workplace / children bringing it home from school ?

I think it's just impossible to determine where someone has caught it, in the vast majority of cases, so no. I think there are some attempts to score different environments, but these are based on in-theory opinions of epidemiologists, rather than real-world data.

 

[existentialist]

I didn't realise that the Netherlands was doing so badly too.

View attachment 279568

At least the rate of increase is slowing quite sharply for the Dutch. Right now, Spain's looking like the place with the biggest problem in terms of rate - even the UK's looks as if it's slowing a bit.

 

[elbows]

Surely by now they should have some data about how people are catching it - i.e. public transport / workplace / children bringing it home from school ?

Their analysis of such matters is crude and simplistic, delivered in a manner where a long list of caveats provide plausible deniability to anyone seeking to defend a particular setting against accusations that it is responsible for a large chunk of the spread.

Part of this is because people do multiple activities that could have been responsible, and unpicking that isnt so trivial.

All the same its quite possible to build some kind of picture. Schools, shops, pubs, restaurants, workplaces, prisons etc etc etc. In the absence of detailed analysis and concrete answers, authorities do pick up on specific outbreaks and a certain proportion of super-spreading events. Some of these we get to hear about via the news.

 

[zahir]

Surely by now they should have some data about how people are catching it - i.e. public transport / workplace / children bringing it home from school ?

I posted this on another thread: General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

Evidence from Australia that with delta there's increased likelihood of catching it outdoors.

 

[IC3D]

I have for some time just assumed its passed on like a common cold. I think it will undramaticly weaken and become one that is less deadly, just how long this takes is unknown. Seeing the rates in Europe confirm what Ive been hearing from Barca and Paris that it is not localised to Countries boarders and is essentially endemic across Europe at roughly the same level and political desisions other than hard lockdowns have little impact

 

[elbows]

I have for some time just assumed its passed on like a common cold. I think it will undramaticly weaken and become one that is less deadly, just how long this takes is unknown. Seeing the rates in Europe confirm what Ive been hearing from Barca and Paris that it is not localised to Countries boarders and is essentially endemic across Europe at roughly the same level and political desisions other than hard lockdowns have little impact

Your bullshit on this matter is unsupported by the data. There are waves, the timing of which varies per country a bit. I already showed you a graph demonstrating that what you said about number of people testing positive was bullshit and that your picture of positive tests in Spain was out of date.

Specifically, your claim that France and Spain werent showing high number of cases becaucse of testing regime differences was shit. It was because their wave timing was slightly different to ours, and Spain and France are more than capable of posting huge numbers when they are actually experiencing large waves. Spains wave is well under way so their numbers are now large. France is a bit further behind but there numbers were starting to go back up again last time I checked.

 

[IC3D]

Large numbers of people will continue to self-isolate despite the bullshit of recent times.

Of course but there are a wide range of pressures at play other than protecting yourself or loved one for a lot of people.

 

[elbows]

Of course but there are a wide range of pressures at play other than protecting yourself or loved one for a lot of people.

Yes there are, and these pressures are evolving as a result of bullshit government policy.

The system is being eroded. I just resist the temptation to stretch that way too far by claiming that the majority of people will give up on the system when in fact the changes will be more gradual than that.