Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
on march 15 2020 i would have poo-pooed the notion i put forwards. but after all the deaths and all the corruption and the decision to go full steam ahead at that iceberg i think it is - as you say - all too believable
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Less a deliberate policy than a general strategy of using every disaster or upheaval that comes along to push their agenda in ways that might not work in peacetime.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Things arent going well for my local testing centre. The backstory is they only just moved to this site recently, they were previously in a much larger carpark opposite the current site.
www.coventrytelegraph.net
PCR test centre forced to close over 'health and safety' issues
People were being turned away
andysays
Love and solidarity
I'm still not sure.
They're saying that the pressures on the NHS won't be so severe now that most of the more vulnerable have been vaccinated.
Most sane people recognise that's still a bit of risk to be taking, but it's not impossible that they actually believe it, and aren't that bothered about the potential consequences, rather than going for a deliberate "overwhelm the NHS" policy, which is what you appear to be suggesting.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
for sure, the pressures on the nhs won't be so severe as they would have been without the vaccine. but everything that's coming from the nhs is that they need no extra pressure, that every patient coming in is taking attention and care away from other patients who have serious conditions or need surgery, and that this pressure is particularly acute in icu beds. and that was a little time ago, it must be worse now. so acting as the government are in deliberately ignoring the concerns of nhs staff and warnings of super-high waiting lists indicates, to me anyway, that they are not wholly unhappy to see these things.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
This Govt has proven both its ability to let its optimism trump reality and its inability to do much planning. When they originally picked the date of 19th July for 'Freedom Day', the science was probably telling them that there was a good chance that things would be largely under control by then. Along came the Delta variant which doesn't have to answer to either Parliament or the voters and completely f*cked up things up.
So they are now in a position of either having to change their plans and extend/deepen lockdown with all the public blowback that will entail since they have been trumpeting 19/07 for weeks or just go ahead and hope for the best.
They've gone for the second and are just hoping for the best. It's not so much a case of being sure that the NHS can cope as just hoping it can. When you've staked something high on an outcome (in this case their reputation) then people can get fairly obssesive about wishing for the outcome they want.
So they are now in a position of either having to change their plans and extend/deepen lockdown with all the public blowback that will entail since they have been trumpeting 19/07 for weeks or just go ahead and hope for the best.
They've gone for the second and are just hoping for the best. It's not so much a case of being sure that the NHS can cope as just hoping it can. When you've staked something high on an outcome (in this case their reputation) then people can get fairly obssesive about wishing for the outcome they want.
elbows
Well-Known Member
They originally picked June 21st for freedom day and it was Delta that made them delay it till July. Delta realities have also forced them to change the mood music, and delay the removal of certain self-isolation rules.
A proper response to Delta would have involved going much further than this, picking some brakes to slam on, or at the very least not being utter arseholes over mask policy.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Not to forget that last year they apparently deliberately chose 4th July ...
I wonder what other notable dates are left ...
I wonder what other notable dates are left ...
Supine
Newt Member
Bonfire night
elbows
Well-Known Member
Remember, remember the fifth wave of Covember.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Just missed Bastille Day, which was apparently used to protest against Covid restrictions:
www.theguardian.com
France protests: clashes with police on Bastille Day amid anger at tighter Covid rules
Demonstrations in Paris and other cities over plan for mandatory vaccinations for health workers and vaccine pass for public places
miss direct
misfungled
I was pleased to find everyone (of adult age) in Lidl wearing masks today, but bemused by the local forest nursery who seemed to be on a "school trip" which involved parading a crocodile of toddlers up and down the aisles, weaving in and out of elderly couples/people in wheelchairs. What happened to "shop alone"? (And are there not more exciting places to take the children on a lovely sunny day like today?)
bimble
Scammy twats get out of public woods and pay some rent. Doesn't suprise me one bit they shop at Lidl
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes I should have been clearer that the knowledge about the risk is not new.
Whats new now is that they are concerned about vaccine uptake and so are doing a campaign about this.
bimble
floofy
did you @ me because I live in the woods? Was just having a nap in a hollow tree not bothering a soul.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In the North East of England the number of positive cases detected in the under 30's is pretty similar to the totals for all age groups seen there in previous peaks.
These graphs feature 7 day averages, the raw daily numbers are actually much closer to 4000 now than these averages can indicate.
And here I attempt to show what percentage of cases each of these age groups (which I simplified by combining lots of 5 year sized age groups) provide over time.
These graphs feature 7 day averages, the raw daily numbers are actually much closer to 4000 now than these averages can indicate.
And here I attempt to show what percentage of cases each of these age groups (which I simplified by combining lots of 5 year sized age groups) provide over time.
ska invita
back on the other side
so cases are starting to come down ?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cant make that claim from this sort of data, its positives by specimen date so the most recent ones are incomplete and also the length of time to get test results has worsened due to stress on the system.
There has certainly been a slowdown in growth speeds, which have also fluctuated in the past.
I will continue to make people aware that things could peak sooner than government, media, modelling etc have tended to imply, but that I wont be able to demonstrate that such a thing has actually happened until some time after the event.
All of the daily test-based indicators continue to imply that Scotland peaked a while ago. Then have to start looking at detail to see if these trends are the same for all age groups (last time I checked their cases in older people were not falling with the same timing).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Changing behaviours, the virus struggling to find ever larger numbers of people to infect.
Changing behaviours include football, weather, people reacting to the grim news and number of cases, the number of people being told to self-isolate and doing so, the number of pubs, school year groups etc etc that end up getting closed by local public health teams, university students having finished with their end of term parties etc, and other things that are not leaping readily to mind as I type this.
Changing behaviours include football, weather, people reacting to the grim news and number of cases, the number of people being told to self-isolate and doing so, the number of pubs, school year groups etc etc that end up getting closed by local public health teams, university students having finished with their end of term parties etc, and other things that are not leaping readily to mind as I type this.
ska invita
back on the other side
the vaccine roll out meaning a limit to numbers it can infect and spread onwards
elbows
Well-Known Member
But certainly at this moment, issues with test system capacity affecting the data cannot be ruled out. That sort of thing can be judged later by comparing the number of hospitalisations in a week or so to the case numbers at the time. Or getting clues from the percentage positive data.
ska invita
back on the other side
...may be coming down in the NE, but still a way to go to peak in the south, from what i can gather. The NE had a big head start IIRC
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
I don't buy that the government is trying to run the NHS into the ground so they can privatise it. Any government that ruined the NHS would be committing electoral suicide. The one thing that stopped the government from running with a herd immunity strategy from day 1 was the threat of the NHS being overwhelmed.
They can (and are) privatising it anyway regardless.
They can (and are) privatising it anyway regardless.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes the timing varies per region and even more when we zoom in on individual locations, and thats expected to be even more relevant in this wave because in previous waves the peak timing was largely down to lockdown timing, which was the same across England.
The North West was ahead of everywhere else but their growth wobbled around at various points compared to the North East which was more obviously explosive and dramatic, overtaking the North West in some ways not so long ago.
LeytonCatLady
Well-Known Member
By rights, just about everything they've done since 2010 should've caused their electoral suicide but it doesn't stop people being daft enough to vote them in.
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