Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cloo]

It does look, especially with the 'push to 2nd vaccinate the over 50s', that the gov is really going for keeping things at Monday 17th rules for longer if it has to, cope with infections rising but hope hospitalisation/death rates stay manageable. Keeping going but keeping those things in tolerable bounds is not a deplorable aim IMO and one we have to accept at some point, but it does seem it's a bit soon and a bit experimental and finger-crossing to go with that approach this year.

 

[NoXion]

It does look, especially with the 'push to 2nd vaccinate the over 50s', that the gov is really going for keeping things at Monday 17th rules for longer if it has to, cope with infections rising but hope hospitalisation/death rates stay manageable. Keeping going but keeping those things in tolerable bounds is not a deplorable aim IMO and one we have to accept at some point, but it does seem it's a bit soon and a bit experimental and finger-crossing to go with that approach this year.

I suspect the problem is that their definition of what are "tolerable bounds" is rather different to mine.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Quite interesting, & encouraging i think:
Basically looks like vaccination may not stop infections but does stop people getting seriously ill, which is the only thing that really matters isnt it.

The Seychelles is 60% vaccinated, but still infections are rising. That's not as bad as it sounds | CNN

On face value, the fact the Seychelles, with such high vaccination coverage, is still facing an outbreak calls into question whether countries can inoculate themselves out of the pandemic.

edition.cnn.com

I've always assumed by serious illness, they mean not ending up in a ICU, and that appears the case here, as the quote is 'almost none of the critical and severe cases requiring intensive care had been vaccinated', so you can still end-up in hospital putting a strain on the NHS.

Plus, of course, even mild cases can end-up with 'long covid', although hopefully the vaccines will reduce or prevent it in those unlucky to still get mild cases, to me that's a pretty severe illness.

 

[bimble]

true.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I watched the press briefing, and as usual the messaging seemed confused, saying they are concerned, but haven't seen a substantial increase in hospital admissions, leaving some people wondering why the concern.

If they had used Bolton as an example, and said that 'there was 11 admissions in the last week, which although isn't a big number, it represents a 57% increase on the pervious week, which is concerning, and could become a problem if that increase continues to grow', I think people would have a better understanding.

 

[LDC]

I watched the press briefing, and as usual the messaging seemed confused, saying they are concerned, but haven't seen a substantial increase in hospital admissions, leaving some people wondering why the concern.

If they had used Bolton as an example, and said that 'there was 11 admissions in the last week, which although isn't a big number, it represents a 57% increase on the pervious week, which is concerning, and could become a problem if that increase continues to grow', I think people would have a better understanding.

Johnson has a speaking style that doesn't lend itself to clarity and detail, he tries for the 'big picture' sub-par fight them on the beaches kinda thing, hoping the bluster and inspiration will overcome the lack of exact information. Whitty is better though, but I agree it wasn't exactly clear from what they said, but the language used was very good at giving away what they're concerned about 'behind the scenes' as it were (especially if you look at detailed data and have followed this whole thing closely) but that's less easy to pick up on. IME most people think it's all over now and it's a one way street to normality...

 

[Riklet]

I think they're crazy to open things up more than they are now, what with the numbers 15-20 times higher in some areas than others, the second highest confirmed number of Indian cases in the world (wonder why), under 40s not vaccinated yet and the numbers going up again for the past week.

Compare this to cautious and sensible approaches taken by countries like NZ and Australia. Fuck all the people who want a summer holiday abroad frankly.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

So if I've understood the last few pages correctly it is SNAFU and there is a handbrake turn up ahead of us.

 

[Petcha]

I think they're crazy to open things up more than they are now, what with the numbers 15-20 times higher in some areas than others, the second highest confirmed number of Indian cases in the world (wonder why), under 40s not vaccinated yet and the numbers going up again for the past week.

Compare this to cautious and sensible approaches taken by countries like NZ and Australia. Fuck all the people who want a summer holiday abroad frankly.

Yep. I have friends in Australia and NZ who think this is bonkers. Well they think the whole approach from our govt has been nuts from the very start. Thankfully the UK has deigned to put those countries on our 'green list' so we can escape down there. But, oh. There's a small issue there.... there's not a snowball's chance in hell they're opening their borders to the likes of us anytime soon.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

This means that they are allowing holidays abroad as promised, it's not their fault that those countries won't let you in...

 

[Sunray]

Indian people have multigenerational households so all the people returning went to houses with 50+ and school children age groups.

I watched the press briefing, and as usual the messaging seemed confused, saying they are concerned, but haven't seen a substantial increase in hospital admissions, leaving some people wondering why the concern.

If they had used Bolton as an example, and said that 'there was 11 admissions in the last week, which although isn't a big number, it represents a 57% increase on the pervious week, which is concerning, and could become a problem if that increase continues to grow', I think people would have a better understanding.

It takes a while for those people to get sicker and end up in trouble so the increase we are seeing comes with an unknown component that only time will tell.

The point of this 5 week gap was to watch out for things like this. Nobody apart from pubs and restaurants will care much if we go on like we are for a couple of weeks more. Boris Johnson's government is just paying lip service to science with no intention of actually doing anything they say to protect the public.

 

[elbows]

It does look, especially with the 'push to 2nd vaccinate the over 50s', that the gov is really going for keeping things at Monday 17th rules for longer if it has to, cope with infections rising but hope hospitalisation/death rates stay manageable. Keeping going but keeping those things in tolerable bounds is not a deplorable aim IMO and one we have to accept at some point, but it does seem it's a bit soon and a bit experimental and finger-crossing to go with that approach this year.

I'd say thats only their temporary position, whilst awaiting data or events that lean more strongly in one direction or the other and provide a higher degree of confidence about whether the current approach is expected to keep things within those bounds or not.

They could still push ahead with the June relaxation, or they could be forced to slam on the brakes more comprehensively. I dont think there is any way for me to deduce the answer to that more quickly, we just have to wait and see what happens on a number of fronts over the next few weeks. Bad news/data/evidence that triggers a new position could come within days, or might take weeks to emerge, whereas good news/data/evidence will not come within days and will be weeks away if not longer.

 

[elbows]

The point of this 5 week gap was to watch out for things like this. Nobody apart from pubs and restaurants will care much if we go on like we are for a couple of weeks more. Boris Johnson's government is just paying lip service to science with no intention of actually doing anything they say to protect the public.

Perhaps we could speculate as to why there was no Vallance in yesterdays press conference. I could easily come up with a story that he does not agree with the approach taken yesterday, eg that he wanted a pause to the step 3 May relaations, or take some other action now, and so did not appear. But of course I am just inventing this story, based on nothing more than some of the things SAGE said in their documented meeting this week, and the fact he seemed to become less happy with Johnsons approach as the pandemic went on, somewhat positioning himself as someone who was calling for quicker/stronger lockdowns at various moments previously.

 

[baldrick]

I follow the daily updates that some academic hero posts daily (and has done throughout!) on r/CoronavirusUK (reddit). It's pretty comprehensive.

Isn't that just copied from the PHE dashboard?

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[glitch hiker]

Isn't that just copied from the PHE dashboard?

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I imagine so. But whoever it is compiles a pretty thorough list of facts

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hospitalisations in Bolton are concerning, according to that link, yet either the BBC or Sky had a report from there and their reporter said there was no evidence of a spike in hospitalisations from the Indian variant, just a few admissions reported. So which is it? Or is there more information that was not reported on the news, such as that the hospitalisations were of fully-vaccinated people, for example?

Just catching up on the thread, there's only been 11 hospital admissions in Bolton during the 7-day period to 2nd May, the latest date on the government's covid dashboard, so a reporter wouldn't see a 'spike in hospitalisations'. However, that was a 57% increase on the 7-days before, so that's where the concern is.

But as was pointed out by Whitty in the press conference, the rise in cases in Bolton etc are happening NOW. Vaccinating everyone there will still not prevent a further rise in cases because the vaccines take a few weeks to work, so nor will bringing forward the second jabs, surely, as well as potentially reducing the effectiveness of the second jab?

Vaccinating everyone there will not prevent a further rise in cases in the short term, but would start impacting in 2-3 weeks time, so I can see some logic to doing that.

Trouble is, is it worth buggering about with the logistics of moving vaccines from other areas, when it's already seeded over a fairly wide area, so extra doses are going to be needed everywhere fairly soon.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here's a handy graph as to where they have found the Indian variant so far, and to what degree it is becoming the most dominant one.


And, we know from the Kent variant how quick a situation like that can spread across the whole country, and fill up hospitals.

Talking about hospitals, I better go and see how my mother is getting on.

 

[elbows]

Just catching up on the thread, there's only been 11 hospital admissions in Bolton during the 7-day period to 2nd May, the latest date on the government's covid dashboard, so a reporter wouldn't see a 'spike in hospitalisations'. However, that was a 57% increase on the 7-days before, so that's where the concern is.

Admissions data per trust on the dashboard currently goes up to 9th May, numbers in hospital goes up to the 11th. The hover-over on those graphs sometimes struggles to show the most recent dates info, so I usually click on the data tab to see the raw figures. Per-trust weekly data is also available in spreadsheet form at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[Petcha]

I've said it before maybe on this thread, but I live in a largely (like 80%) British Asian area and mask take up, social distancing and presumably vaccine take up has been very very low. I'd be interested in a totally amnesty on political correctness failures discussion on why this might be. I love the area, the people, but I'm usually the only guy wearing a mask, to the point where I actually think whats the point myself. This ignorance, for whatever reason, of what the fuck is going on in the country plus the fact a highly virulent strain has arrived from India spells very very big trouble. Oh and let's open everything up on Monday too, just for the added kicks.

 

[baldrick]

I've said it before maybe on this thread, but I live in a largely (like 80%) British Asian area and mask take up, social distancing and presumably vaccine take up has been very very low. I'd be interested in a totally amnesty on political correctness failures discussion on why this might be. I love the area, the people, but I'm usually the only guy wearing a mask, to the point where I actually think whats the point myself. This ignorance, for whatever reason, of what the fuck is going on in the country plus the fact a highly virulent strain has arrived from India spells very very big trouble. Oh and let's open everything up on Monday too, just for the added kicks.

Yeah I imagine it's quite area/demographic specific because I also live in a majority British Asian area and the vast majority of people here have been wearing masks. Social distancing not so much, but it's a very busy/crowded area so I tend to give people a pass on that if I'm honest. It bothers me less than mask wearing, I tend to think that's the major thing to get right, it's a visible signal that you're taking this seriously if nothing else.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I've said it before maybe on this thread, but I live in a largely (like 80%) British Asian area and mask take up, social distancing and presumably vaccine take up has been very very low. I'd be interested in a totally amnesty on political correctness failures discussion on why this might be. I love the area, the people, but I'm usually the only guy wearing a mask, to the point where I actually think whats the point myself. This ignorance, for whatever reason, of what the fuck is going on in the country plus the fact a highly virulent strain has arrived from India spells very very big trouble. Oh and let's open everything up on Monday too, just for the added kicks.

Because social distancing is such a social thing, I'd expect random fluctuations in behaviour to be amplified. If you have two otherwise similar neighbourhoods which started off at 49% and 51% mask wearing, over time the one might tend towards 0% and the other 100% for no other reason than people modelling their behaviour on those around them.

That's an entirely baseless theory of course. We'll likely never know for sure. If anyone does any research it'll probably be survey-based with all the sampling/uptake problems that drags in. Any data could also be skewed by some of the same factors being investigated in the first place.

 

[glitch hiker]

I think what depresses me most about the incoming third wave, if it's asinevitable as the models say, is that I don't see a way out of this. Hopefully vaccines, but as the Guardian article says,wave three will happen in spite of vaccines. Perhaps I have misunderstood.
It's not that Johnson has, again, fucked up. It's that he, and his clown car posse, are about as capable of understanding this situation as a dog understands geometry. It's that he will never ever grasp this and nothing, it seems, will change. This is hardly going to be the last VOC after all, and his cack handed viral stupidity ensures more will breed.
Stir that petri dish with your union jack!

 

[glitch hiker]

Insane, isn't it? But based on Johnson's record so far, hardly surprising.

Not even localised lockdowns.

I really won't be surprised if there's a turn arounad early next week. But all the local pubs are gearing to open next week as well. They haven't even opened outdoors so far. One poor couple opened a new bistro last summer, they've had a hell of a time. I don't know them but god knows how they've managed not to go under.

 

[elbows]

Yeah I imagine it's quite area/demographic specific because I also live in a majority British Asian area and the vast majority of people here have been wearing masks.

Same here, although I'm not really going out so this impression is based largely on looking out of my window, and it does seem to vary a bit over time.

As for vaccinations, here are figures from the latest weekly surveillance report at https://assets.publishing.service.g...986168/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w19.pdf

 

[The39thStep]

Masks and social distancing are compulsory here in Portugal everywhere and for everyone until at least August. . They've just issued the rules for the beach, wear mask , find a spot a metre and a half away, remove mask. Wear it as you leave the beach. Patrolled by Maritime Police and council and fines starting at 100 euro.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Admissions data per trust on the dashboard currently goes up to 9th May, numbers in hospital goes up to the 11th. The hover-over on those graphs sometimes struggles to show the most recent dates info, so I usually click on the data tab to see the raw figures.

Cheers for that tip, I wasn't aware of the glitch with the 'hover-over' function.

 

[Petcha]

Masks and social distancing are compulsory here in Portugal everywhere and for everyone until at least August. . They've just issued the rules for the beach, wear mask , find a spot a metre and a half away, remove mask. Wear it as you leave the beach. Patrolled by Maritime Police and council and fines starting at 100 euro.

I laud this but I can't see that flying here. I've seen half-hearted attempts by lone bobbies walking up to groups and politely suggesting they move on, break up, whatever, but really what the fuck is the cop gonna do? There's no way Boris is gonna bring in laws like that. Our supermarkets here have big signs saying masks must be worn. And half the staff are strolling around without them.

 

[souljacker]

Isn't that just copied from the PHE dashboard?

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

The dashboard has an API and some decent and well written developer guides so he may even just be running a script at 4pm every day and publishing the response. You could then script posting that to reddit. It's possible that this person is posting every day without doing anything at all

 

[kabbes]

Vaccination take-up is vastly complicated. It will be affected by a lot of things, including the subjective sense of obedience to authority, the subjective sense of trust in the institution asking you, the subjective sense of safety, social identity and the impacts from cognitive bias and, I suppose to some degree, rational information. (The last being the least.)

The BAME community have a lot of reasons to distrust authorities that have, historically, been genuinely out to get them. That’s not paranoia, it’s real, seen in everything from Windrush to Tuskegee. The other factors I mention are built on top of that, but I would expect the baseline trust to be much lower. I’m therefore not surprised that the vaccination rate is accordingly also lower.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I laud this but I can't see that flying here. I've seen half-hearted attempts by lone bobbies walking up to groups and politely suggesting they move on, break up, whatever, but really what the fuck is the cop gonna do? There's no way Boris is gonna bring in laws like that. Our supermarkets here have big signs saying masks must be worn. And half the staff are strolling around without them.

It seems to vary so much, around Worthing it's very rare to see anyone not wearing a mask in shops, including staff behind plastic shields.