Hospitalisations in Bolton are concerning, according to that link, yet either the BBC or Sky had a report from there and their reporter said there was no evidence of a spike in hospitalisations from the Indian variant, just a few admissions reported. So which is it? Or is there more information that was not reported on the news, such as that the hospitalisations were of fully-vaccinated people, for example?
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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Hospitalisations in Bolton are concerning, according to that link, yet either the BBC or Sky had a report from there and their reporter said there was no evidence of a spike in hospitalisations from the Indian variant, just a few admissions reported. So which is it? Or is there more information that was not reported on the news, such as that the hospitalisations were of fully-vaccinated people, for example?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
As for this bit, you make the assumption that the vaccine has been responsible for numbers falling. But Portugal has followed a very, very similar path to the UK this year with far fewer vaccinations. We had a massive wave, which has since subsided. That's what waves of infection do. How long might it take the SA variant to take hold after such a wave and cause another one? Quite possibly many months if it hasn't been seeded that many times.
I'll say it again. The real fuck up as I see it has been complacency about border control. That lesson still isn't being learned.
Supine
Newt Member
so what are you trying to conclude from one study with not much data in young people? You can’t conclude AZ is useless against it as far as I know.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I didn't conclude that AZ is useless against it. Read my post again more carefully. But those are very bad results whichever way you cut it and ought to undermine high levels of confidence in it such that it would stop 90 per cent of deaths from the SA variant, which is the idea I was responding to.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well waves do that when the virus has trouble coming into contact with enough susceptible individuals to maintain its growth. Many factors influence that, including people with immunity due to natural infection, due to vaccines, due to behavioural changes, lockdowns, infection control procedures, people reducing their number of contacts. Have you come to terms with the relevance of some of those factors since we last argued a lot about whether there was any point to lockdowns, restrictions, masks?
But as was pointed out by Whitty in the press conference, the rise in cases in Bolton etc are happening NOW. Vaccinating everyone there will still not prevent a further rise in cases because the vaccines take a few weeks to work, so nor will bringing forward the second jabs, surely, as well as potentially reducing the effectiveness of the second jab?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I don't want an argument with you about that. Again, I was responding to a very specific idea, one that gave credit to the vaccines for the fall in numbers. I very much hope that the vaccines have been a big factor, but you cannot just ignore the fact that Portugal's wave has been almost identical to the UK's this year with a very, very different vaccine roll-out.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I expect BJ & Co to behave as before - too little, too late - and whilst the vaccines will help, they can only do so when the jabs are in arms.
With this Indian variant - it will have been around for a while, but now seems to be a bigger risk - so i think that the "Road Map" Steps 3 & 4 should be postponed until the vaccine rate is much higher.
In the meantime, I have had my two Oxfords, but I'm still taking other measures ...
With this Indian variant - it will have been around for a while, but now seems to be a bigger risk - so i think that the "Road Map" Steps 3 & 4 should be postponed until the vaccine rate is much higher.
In the meantime, I have had my two Oxfords, but I'm still taking other measures ...
Supine
Newt Member
Oh FFS - you posted “There is very sadly evidence that the South African variant may be almost entirely resistant to the AZ vaccine.”
I was trying to understand why you said that. I have better to do than talk silly bollox with you on a Friday night. Last post from me on this subject.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Why did I say that? Because that study produced results that are consistent with it, that's why.
Note what I said: ' there is evidence that the vaccine may be almost entirely resistant'. You then translated that into me trying to conclude that AZ is useless. I also went on to say that, despite these bad results, the vaccine may still prevent serious cases and death. So who is misrepresenting whom here?
One of the study's limitations is that it has little to say either way about serious covid and death. I stated that. But as a preliminary result, it's very bad.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I'll take that as a no then, and move away from that area. Its a shame though because I cannot take any conclusions you form by comparing waves in different countries very seriously given that you have a long track record of preferring to attribute declines to factors not involving human behaviour, number of contacts people are having with each other etc.
As far as studies looking into the effects of vaccines go, they do tend to make my brain hurt when it comes to some of the detail. I expect that in many cases their methodologies are not bad, although not without limitations that the authors tend to acknowledge. Those limits may include the period covered often including a marked decrease in viral prevalence overall, which limits the scope of really being able to test things to the fullest extent possible via 'the proof of the pudding being in the eating'. In other words in order for me to form solid and long-lasting conclusions about the protection offered, I require the vaccines to prove that they will prevent sizeable waves from occurring over a sustained period of time. And even then, unknowns about variants and how long immunity lasts before waning mean that I will struggle to find really solid ground to rest on for prolonged periods of time.
In the meantime, that does not mean I utterly reject reports that show very high percentages, the likes of which are probably what infomed platinumsages stance on the modelling which I took issue with. I'm just a bit cautious of taking the very highest numbers shown as being the gospel, and feeling them into modelling exercises. I tend to hold the view that central modelling scenarios should use more conservative numbers, although I would of course be happy to see further exercises that explore a broader range of different numbers so we can explore a wider landscape of possibilities.
Here is an example of a Pfizer study from Israel that seems quite recent and came up with very high numbers:
Covid-19: Two doses of Pfizer vaccine are “highly effective” against infection, hospital admission, and death, study finds
Two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech covid-19 vaccine provide more than 95% protection against infection, hospital admission, and death, including among older people, a peer reviewed study from Israel has found. A single dose of the Pfizer vaccine was associated with 58% protection against...
When it comes to variants of concern, apart from the Kent variant, I am even more cautious due to a lack of data or lack of enough time and/or quantity of variant infections with which to draw solid enough conclusions. In terms of this particular India variant my expectations are almost completely blank, and it sounds like authorities here will have to find out the hard way in the coming weeks. If it takes a very long time to deduce things via real world hospital data then I'll take that as potentially being a very good sign, as opposed to bad news on that front which may be expected to arrive far more quickly via the sorts of means I quoted documents about earlier. Although another reason why it might take far longer than ideal to find out would be if the sorts of data the modelling groups have said they needed is not able to be provided reasonably quickly. Until then we may just go round in circles a lot and it would be entirely wrong of me to speak with any certainty.
An example of what I am on about in terms of the sort of data/analysis the SAGE modelling group say they need:
(from https://assets.publishing.service.g.../986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf )
We are certainly in a period where people need to take care not to interpret "no evidnece to suggest" type statements as offering proof that something is not the case. And so as I am alert to this, I am also interested in whether I should read anything into the different use of language at the start of that paragraph, "insufficient evidence" as opposed to the more frequently seen "no evidence".
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
You should take that as what I said, no more, no less. The rest of this paragraph is an example of why I said it, frankly.
It was a response to a very particular point. I'm well aware of the very encouraging signs that the vaccine has been reducing infection in vaccinated cohorts. But at the same time, the idea I was responding to was 'why hasn't the SA variant taken off here if the AZ vaccine is ineffective'. Counterexamples from places with much lower vaccination levels that also haven't seen a surge in the SA variant are very relevant when trying to work out if the lack of a surge of SA variant is evidence that the AZ vaccine is working against it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
You get entirely what you deserve when it comes to that. You've expressed the view on this forum that masks didnt do much, that lockdowns didnt do much, and you've never acknowledged a change of heart. I was dearly hoping on numerous occasions that youd seen the light but youve given no indication that this is the case, and so I do not apologise for holding you in contempt during this pandemic. Why wouldnt I? A bloody disgrace, inexcusable ignorance and irrationality. In some other areas of pandemic discussion I found you reasonable, which is probably why I am infuriated by your ignorance on the lockdown etc front. If you'd like to claim that my hostility has robbed you of the opportunity to improve your reputation amongst your peers here, by virtue of me failing to give you sufficient room to save face, then tough shit.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And yes even when I dont say it, I am always somewhat sorry about the nature of some of my outbursts. I have found this week to be highly distressing, on top of much distress about the scenes from India in recent times. I will try to chill out in the coming days, sorry.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Yes, it's from 15/09/20, to be specific -
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
JFC, could you be any more pompous?
You do post loads of really valuable information, but does it have to come with all of your tedious opining?
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Dp.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
little harsh to one of the main poster reporting this stuff for the best part of a year
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its part of the package, its not optional, it is my nature. I warned people at the start that coming across as pompous was not on my list of things I gave a shit about, and was not going to prevent me from saying what I felt needed to be said during this pandemic. I'm pretty sure the post I made about that at the time was in itself quite pompous.
I do have a plan for dealing with this side of my personality in the long term, but it involves permanently retiring from being a smartarse. Thats not going to happen whilst the pandemic is still in effect, but I am giving serious consideration to retiring that side of myself once the pandemic is done. In the meantime I can understand various frustrations and unpleasant feelings towards me and/or some of what I come out with. Believe it or not I share only a fraction of my frustration with the opinions of others, imagine what the whole of that scene is like in my mind!
I do have a plan for dealing with this side of my personality in the long term, but it involves permanently retiring from being a smartarse. Thats not going to happen whilst the pandemic is still in effect, but I am giving serious consideration to retiring that side of myself once the pandemic is done. In the meantime I can understand various frustrations and unpleasant feelings towards me and/or some of what I come out with. Believe it or not I share only a fraction of my frustration with the opinions of others, imagine what the whole of that scene is like in my mind!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Possibly one contributor to my current distress is the sheer quantity of unknowns with the current situation. I do not need anything approaching complete certainty to cope with the pandemic and its detail, but it seems there are limits to just how much uncertainty I can cope with without being rudely flung some distance from my comfort zone.
In the past when we have been faced with bad news and government dragging its heels, there has been a pretty strong sense of inevitability about what horrors were soon to unfold. The current concerns about the variant may all be valid and we will go down that well trodden path, but other possibilities also exist as far as I can tell. It would be going too far to suggest that it could yet turn out to be a false alarm in every sense, but certain fears may not come to pass. And it really does my head in that various sorts of lag to our data & surveillance means our appreciation of situations tends to to reflect the picture weeks ago rather than the current reality outside our doorsteps. In my case I might be feeling this extra strongly because this variant has been detected in my neighbourhood and surge testing looms for my local ward. I'd feel better if I had some idea of how much these local infections have spread since some cases here were discovered to be the new variant, especially as it is likely that it took quite some time for those original cases to have their genomes sequenced. And of course next time we get to see a new version of this picture, it will probably be out of date too.
Anyway I will put some extra effort into trying harder not to have a go at the opinions of others at the moment, especially whilst I am in my current frame of mind. Sorry for the disruption and ill-feeling.
In the past when we have been faced with bad news and government dragging its heels, there has been a pretty strong sense of inevitability about what horrors were soon to unfold. The current concerns about the variant may all be valid and we will go down that well trodden path, but other possibilities also exist as far as I can tell. It would be going too far to suggest that it could yet turn out to be a false alarm in every sense, but certain fears may not come to pass. And it really does my head in that various sorts of lag to our data & surveillance means our appreciation of situations tends to to reflect the picture weeks ago rather than the current reality outside our doorsteps. In my case I might be feeling this extra strongly because this variant has been detected in my neighbourhood and surge testing looms for my local ward. I'd feel better if I had some idea of how much these local infections have spread since some cases here were discovered to be the new variant, especially as it is likely that it took quite some time for those original cases to have their genomes sequenced. And of course next time we get to see a new version of this picture, it will probably be out of date too.
Anyway I will put some extra effort into trying harder not to have a go at the opinions of others at the moment, especially whilst I am in my current frame of mind. Sorry for the disruption and ill-feeling.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
Never really worked out what exactly you do (epidemiologist? virologist? statistician?) but you always seem to be the one on Urban who knows what they're talking about WRT the pandemic, and your posts are much appreciated.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks. I'm just a computer nerd with too much time on my hands who was able to apply amateur knowledge of previous pandemics and less than ideal establishment responses to them to the current pandemic. As such I am reliant on all the accrued knowledge and opinion of people who actual study and work in the relevant disciplines, and other interested laypeople who pay attention and communicate details and their thoughts. And things like analysis of previous failings and awareness of the blind-spots that aspects of orthodox thinking and establishment priorities tend to encourage. I have enjoyed being useful to other peoples understanding from time to time but have very much not enjoyed the pandemic and the experiences we've had to go through as a result. I was really hoping that what I learnt about pandemics 15 years or so ago would not become so relevant in our lifetimes, but I suppose I wouldnt have bothered in the first place if I didnt think there was a fair chance of such matters becoming one of the stories of this century. I'm not a big fan of some of my interactions with people though, I easily overheat and it all goes wrong. It is a shame I cant do the useful bits without the shit, but then again I suspect that some of my analysis wouldnt have materialised if I didnt have an awkward relationship with certain aspects of the human condition and the limitations of our species/the way we are currently ordered.
bimble
floofy
Quite interesting, & encouraging i think:
Basically looks like vaccination may not stop infections but does stop people getting seriously ill, which is the only thing that really matters isnt it.
edition.cnn.com
Basically looks like vaccination may not stop infections but does stop people getting seriously ill, which is the only thing that really matters isnt it.
The Seychelles is 60% vaccinated, but still infections are rising. That's not as bad as it sounds | CNN
On face value, the fact the Seychelles, with such high vaccination coverage, is still facing an outbreak calls into question whether countries can inoculate themselves out of the pandemic.
maomao
普費斯
Unless having that big pool of virus always there provides more opportunities to mutate. Or do a flu style recombination with SARS or MERS.Quite interesting, & encouraging i think:
Basically looks like vaccination may not stop infections but does stop people getting seriously ill, which is the only thing that really matters isnt it.
The Seychelles is 60% vaccinated, but still infections are rising. That's not as bad as it sounds | CNN
On face value, the fact the Seychelles, with such high vaccination coverage, is still facing an outbreak calls into question whether countries can inoculate themselves out of the pandemic.
I follow the daily updates that some academic hero posts daily (and has done throughout!) on r/CoronavirusUK (reddit). It's pretty comprehensive.
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