Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

But the speed of the reduction in deaths especially is down to the vaccine. That's seen clearly in the rates dropping faster in older age groups, i.e. those which have been vaccinated (unless that has changed recently?). The blond buffoon's own fucking slides showed that, guess he's already forgotten what his scientists presented us with a few weeks ago. Why is he trying to play down the success of his own vaccine rollout, the one thing he seems to have got right in the last year?

I think two things are in play, firstly, the message is mainly directed at younger people who are more likely going to mix in larger groups, and return to workplaces earlier.

Secondly, concerns over variants, such as the South African and Brazilian ones, and their impact on how effective the vaccines are, in Brazil there're rising number of young people who are critically ill in hospital with Covid-19.

 

[Badgers]

Good thread this from a good source.

 

[SpookyFrank]

So, as I prepare to take my place in the queue for PCR testing in Lambeth, what do we know about the AZ vaccine and the South African variant? I ask as on Monday I had my first vaguely 'normal' day since March 2020 - three weeks and two days after my vaccination, I went out for a walk and did a bit of casual shopping (got some bits and bobs from Morleys and popped into Boots and Sainsbury's). Then the next day I find out there's a cluster of South African variant in Lambeth and we all have to get tested. Just when I thought the day of liberation had arrived, are we back to square one? Do I close the door of my flat and never venture out again? What to do? Help!

What we do know is that reducing restrictions while there is still significant community transmission and the people responsible for most transmission events have yet to be vacccinated is a great way to increase the chances of antigenic escape.

 

[Brainaddict]

Good thread this from a good source.

Not nice to read that we are creating perfect conditions for mutating but it rings true. In particular the dangers while we can't vaccinate kids and young people. I've given up talking about a zero covid strategy to people though. Everyone has bought into the idea you can vaccinate and open up, to the point that I find myself going along with it and have to catch myself. I am happy to move about a bit more now, though on the basis of lower transmission rather than the vaccine. But I'm not under the illusion it will necessarily stay this way. We might get lucky and get no nasty mutations. But it will be luck, because the government strategy appears not to be thinking about it at all.

 

[maomao]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

No one knows how long the vaccines last, they haven't been around long enough to know.

 

[LDC]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

Yeah, on a solely pragmatic level I'm going to try and have the conversation about what the PCN (a number of GP surgeries grouped together) I am volunteering giving vaccinations for have as a long term work plan. They're relying on volunteers and people that work for them doing extra days, and they're just managing to hold it together and get it all done, but I think they'll be a drop off in volunteers soon, and no let up in numbers of people needing vaccine doses, plus come the autumn the flu vaccine round will start, and likely booster cv doses. Plus all their usual work of course, and maybe cv related backlogs. It's a bit hard to see how it'll be possible tbh.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

Yes AFAIUI cupid_stunt is right - they know they last at least 8 months because they haven't tested beyond that due to them not having existed any longer. So the science can't show anything beyond that. That doesn't mean that's the limit though.

I think the language around this can be a little unhelpful to be honest - similarly with effects on transmission. They don't know the effects on transmission from the vaccines so the scientifically correct thing is not to assume any. Which I get, but a lot of people hear as 'there aren't any' which I think is unlikely to be true.

 

[andysays]

Not nice to read that we are creating perfect conditions for mutating but it rings true. In particular the dangers while we can't vaccinate kids and young people. I've given up talking about a zero covid strategy to people though. Everyone has bought into the idea you can vaccinate and open up, to the point that I find myself going along with it and have to catch myself. I am happy to move about a bit more now, though on the basis of lower transmission rather than the vaccine. But I'm not under the illusion it will necessarily stay this way. We might get lucky and get no nasty mutations. But it will be luck, because the government strategy appears not to be thinking about it at all.

We can vaccinate children (once vaccines have been approved) and younger people, but obviously we haven't got to that point yet.

Providing the vaccines work long term, and a new variant which vaccines don't work on doesn't emerge, we should reach a point where most people are vaccinated and life can return to something like normal.

We're not there yet though, and there are still some questions to be answered about the longer term.

 

[Badgers]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

Just a heads up on this.

The ongoing vaccination contract has been outsourced from the NHS on a 6 year contract.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Just a heads up on this.

The ongoing vaccination contract has been outsourced from the NHS on a 6 year contract.

Of course it has

 

[Badgers]

Of course it has

Sadly the company I work for (needs must) and have been offered a job on this. Understand they are recruiting for 2800 staff to book appointments.

 

[Border Reiver]

The vaccine lasts for eight months right? So do we have to start the vaccination cycle again in September? For ever? Or do they round it off to a year and we lose 20-30,000 people in the last few months every year? I'm happy the death rate is down but I don't get the long term plan.

At least eight months. We do not know how long as not enough time has passed. It is likely to have a longer effect but like influenza vaccines will probably need an annual update as new variants emerge.

 

[Border Reiver]

Of course it has

Possibly in England but here in Scotland it seems to be NHS in house.

 

[elbows]

I think two things are in play, firstly, the message is mainly directed at younger people who are more likely going to mix in larger groups, and return to workplaces earlier.

Secondly, concerns over variants, such as the South African and Brazilian ones, and their impact on how effective the vaccines are, in Brazil there're rising number of young people who are critically ill in hospital with Covid-19.

Thirdly that people dont seem all that clued up about the likely impact of the fact the vaccines dont ofer 100% protection to all, the wave modelling discussed the other week, etc.

And also that some people still have weird attitudes in regards how much lockdowns have achieved.

The Johnson quote in question is certainly an example which isnt about Johnson blurting out whatever pops into his head, its exatly the sort of thing that I expect to match up with some SAGE etc discussions from recent times, once such papers are published and I've had time to notice and read them.

His claim was oversimplified in that vaccination is thought to have some impact on various data curves. So if it had been me making the point, I would have said that the overall shape of the epidemic curve has been set by the virus and our behavioural response to it including lockdown. And that vaccination has likely provided some additional modification to the shape in recent months, its made the decline phase more impressive, but it didnt drive the overall shape. If all goes well then the balance will shift and at some point I would make a different claim that gives vaccination a bigger slice of credit.

 

[SpookyFrank]

...the long term plan.

The last long term plan in this country petered out in about 1948.

 

[elbows]

Providing the vaccines work long term, and a new variant which vaccines don't work on doesn't emerge, we should reach a point where most people are vaccinated and life can return to something like normal.

I dont think that ideal scenario is really what the authorities expect, hence them going on for a long time already about variants and booster shots and the ongoing nature of things.

Not that experts & authorities have all the answers, and the level of genomic mutation surveillance for this pandemic virus offers a more detailed view than humanity is used to seeing. There are a range of default assumptions that remain to either be reinforced or obliterated by what happens in subsequent chapters, so I dont like to make concrete predictions.

All the same, it is reasonable to expect immunity to wane over time, and for some mutations, including some that are already out there in various countries, to have an impact on vaccine effectiveness. So some of the best case scenarios almost resemble a miracle to me, although I wont go so far as to totally rule them out.

Assuming there is some trouble with vaccine escape mutants ahead, causing the pandemic to drag on, a slightly different set of hopes could still emerge round the corner. For example there might be a somewhat limited number of key mutations that make the biggest differences to this viruses relationship with humans, their immune systems and vaccines. So we might have to struggle on for longer than people are hoping, with some sizeable setbacks, but still eventually reach a point where the key bases are covered. Even then, when there is talk about 'learning to live with the virus' this also includes some expectation that this includes learning to to let some die with the virus. A lesson the UK establishment doesnt need because they've been somewhat comfortable with that from the start, and for them its more a question of finding a level where the numbers add up both in terms of practical impact on the NHS etc, and what level of death is politically acceptable for the long term.

I dont rule out a much happier and quicker end to matters, but I dont put much faith in that outcome unless its actually demonstrated for real over a reasonably long period of time.

 

[pogofish]

Signs that I’m too used to all this:

I was half way through that cigarette before I realised. I stiil had the face mask on!

 

[Pickman's model]

More insults.

I’ll see you all back here on the 13th of October and we’ll see if we are at 50,000 cases and on track for 200 deaths a day.

When it we’re not perhaps people will be thanking the government for the measures that were put in place today.

God help us to find a vaccine soon

October 13 this year?

 

[glitch hiker]

No one knows how long the vaccines last, they haven't been around long enough to know.

I guess we'll only know if/when cases rise again.

Which, if the bus into town earlier was indicative, won't be long. Seriously, how do people not understand how masks workafter a year of this?

Saying that probably makes me sound like an arse, but there are people wearing it around their chin, pulling it down constantly, to eat food and chat. It's all so surreal

 

[Pickman's model]

I guess we'll only know if/when cases rise again.

Which, if the bus into town earlier was indicative, won't be long. Seriously, how do people not understand how masks workafter a year of this?

Did they have them over their eyes?

 

[glitch hiker]

Did they have them over their eyes?

No, they had them around their chins leaving their mouths and noses (and eyes) completely clear.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It pisses me off when I see people wearing masks below their nose.

I took a mate to a serious hospital appointment yesterday, and I couldn't believe it when we went into to see the consultant, and he was wearing his mask below his nose, FFS a hospital consultant.

I had to hold back saying anything, which was very hard, as it was not my appointment, I was only there as my mate's 'emotional support animal'.

 

[Teaboy]

It pisses me off when I see people wearing masks below their nose.

I took a mate to a serious hospital appointment yesterday, and I couldn't believe it when we went into to see the consultant, and he was wearing his mask below his nose, FFS a hospital consultant.

I had to hold back saying anything, which was very hard, as it was not my appointment, I was only there as my mate's 'emotional support animal'.

I don't use them but those common disposable masks always seem to be slipping down below the nose. Anyone wearing them (and who gives a shit) seems to be fighting an endless losing battle to keep their nose covered.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't use them but those common disposable masks always seem to be slipping down below the nose. Anyone wearing them (and who gives a shit) seems to be fighting an endless losing battle to keep their nose covered.

You mean this sort?

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah. Constantly being readjusted or just hanging below the nose.

 

[Orang Utan]

Yeah. Constantly being readjusted or just hanging below the nose.

I don’t know how people manage them for whole days. Hard on the ears. The best ones have straps that go round your head instead

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yeah. Constantly being readjusted or just hanging below the nose.

Well, that's weird, because they come with a flexible plastic strip embedded in them, so you can mould them around your nose. Wearing cloth masks I found would result in my glasses steaming up, wearing these prevent that problem, because they give a snug fit around the nose.

They have been used by hospital staff & dentists for years, long before covid, I've never seen anyone constantly adjusting them.

 

[MJ100]

I think two things are in play, firstly, the message is mainly directed at younger people who are more likely going to mix in larger groups, and return to workplaces earlier.

Secondly, concerns over variants, such as the South African and Brazilian ones, and their impact on how effective the vaccines are, in Brazil there're rising number of young people who are critically ill in hospital with Covid-19.

That's all true and yes, lockdowns obviously brought cases down, but the point is that it sounds like he's saying 'Vaccines hardly change anything.' He's then directing that at younger people, who are the most likely to be vaccine hesitant anyway. It's his choice of words and phrasing that is pissing a lot of people off from what I've seen because it could cause increased hesitancy if people think the vaccines hardly make any difference ("No point me being vaccinated if lockdowns did everything"). He should be promoting their benefits at every turn, not seemingly undermining their effectiveness and only mentioning them in passing.

 

[miss direct]

What was the highest ever number of cases per day in the UK?