Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I suspect that Manchester is an example of a good number of northern cities. The imposition and removal of lockdowns remains focused on London and the SE, rates here never got as low in the summer as they did in London, combine that with more people having to go out to work then you have the current situation.
Is lockdown wearing off in Greater Manchester?
The latest data shows Greater Manchester's rate remains much higher than England'swww.manchestereveningnews.co.uk
Anyone got any thoughts on why this is happening?
Most of the reason given in the article would probably apply to large parts of London as well.
Nurses’ uniforms should be professionally cleaned as COVID-19 survives for 3 days, finds study
NHS uniform and workwear guidelines state it is safe to wash healthcare workers’ uniforms at home, provided the temperature is set to at least 60°C.
nursingnotes.co.uk
Interesting. Nurses obviously have a lot more exposure to the virus than the public of course. Just gives another insight into transmission.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Conversely here in Devon many areas have got within touching distance of zero covid. Another few weeks of lockdown, combined with a shoot-on-sight tourist welcoming strategy, could have the fucking thing purged altogether.
Supine
Newt Member
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
The first part is clearly true.
But it is the second is basically the same as the claims made in the article that I am unsure about, I would think similar factors are at work in London? One of the issues raised in the article is overcrowded housing. Yeah not an issue in London at all.
The only thing I can think of is that London is much more mixed?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I cannot find it now but I saw some decent evidence that mobility/% of people not working from home was higher in the north than London.
EDIT: This is from April 2020 so bit out of date but London has a much higher proportion of people working from home than anywhere else
London is a very mixed picture itself though due to its size. There are boroughs were there are rates notably lower than the country average but walk a few miles and you'll be in a borough with rates much much higher than the country average. If you average it out across the city things probably give a misleading impression.
It doesn't take a data scientist to spot the trends around the country and how those trends are replicated again and again...
It doesn't take a data scientist to spot the trends around the country and how those trends are replicated again and again...
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Not sure democracy isn't already fucked, but decent article by Little Owen Jones
If the UK government isn't held to account for its Covid failures, our democracy may not recover | Owen Jones
If the UK government isn't held to account for its Covid failures, our democracy may not recover | Owen Jones
andysays
Love and solidarity
That appears to say that the % of people in employment doing some home working in London is 57.2, whereas in the North West (which I assume includes Manchester) it's 49.4.
There are clearly significant differences between parts of each region, but on the face of it, it doesn't seem like a huge difference, not enough on its own to explain significant differences in the rate of infection falling compared to the average for England
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Also is that people who live in London or work there?
Could me more of furlough I guess?
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Figures from July would suggest not much if attack all proportally.
Region/Country Employments furloughed
London 1,291,600
South East 1,216,600
North West 974,500
East 830,800
West Midlands 820,200
South West 771,400
Yorkshire And The Humber 711,700
East Midlands 654,600
North East 329,500
Northern Ireland 240,200
Scotland 736,500
Wales 378,400
Unknown 417,700
andysays
Love and solidarity
It's residents of London, not those who normally work there.
I agree that furlough levels are another factor, and it's not clear to me whether/how those people are included in the figures there.
But just to be clear, the original story you posted is saying that infection levels are remaining high in Greater Manchester compared to the average in England, not in comparison to London and/or the South East.
Yorkshire & Humber and West Midlands both have significantly lower levels of home working than the North West, but apparently their infection levels are falling faster than Manchester.
lazythursday
Averagely-Known Member
Well this part of Yorkshire & Humber is not dropping any more - we have had rates around 180 per 100,000 for around a month now. It feels like this is the minimum floor with this level of restrictions / support for some reason.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Today's figures -
Vaccinations - 1st dose almost 18.7m & 2nd dose over 700k - after a few days of very low numbers, they seem to have bounced back somewhat, with around 480k jabs yesterday.
New cases - 9,985, down -15.7% in the last week, bringing the 7-day average down to under 10,200, a figure we haven't seen since early Oct.
New deaths - 323, down -30.4% in the last week, bringing the 7-day average down to around 383, a figure we haven't seen since early Nov.
Patients in hospital - 16,059 on Tue 23rd, down from over 39,000 at the peak in Jan.
Vaccinations - 1st dose almost 18.7m & 2nd dose over 700k - after a few days of very low numbers, they seem to have bounced back somewhat, with around 480k jabs yesterday.
New cases - 9,985, down -15.7% in the last week, bringing the 7-day average down to under 10,200, a figure we haven't seen since early Oct.
New deaths - 323, down -30.4% in the last week, bringing the 7-day average down to around 383, a figure we haven't seen since early Nov.
Patients in hospital - 16,059 on Tue 23rd, down from over 39,000 at the peak in Jan.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
My "local" area has been back at the data suppressed as "less than 2 cases" level for a couple of weeks now, I'm pleased to say.
Looking at the "rates" map on the .gov dashboard, the number of areas showing white for similar reasons has continued to increase - despite one or two back-sliders.
Looking at the "rates" map on the .gov dashboard, the number of areas showing white for similar reasons has continued to increase - despite one or two back-sliders.
Yes the case rate has seemingly levelled to a degree which kind of gets you wondering whether it is reaching a level that this type of lockdown (and compliance) can achieve at this time of year.
souljacker
innit
They are always two weeks behind so will probably level off at around err.... 8th March
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I think I would be inclined to agree with that conclusion.
The current lockdown rules are, maybe, not strong enough to push cases down much further or do so very quickly.
What might happen next, apart from any seasonal drop in the case rate, is that when the vaccination rollout reaches into large swathes of the under 60 age group - provided the jabs do affect transmission - we should see a further reduction in cases.
Unfortunately, IMO, that could well be off-set by the greater mixing that having schools back (and other unlockening measures) actually results in some increase in cases.
The drop in the death rates is, I think, becoming due to the higher proportions of the vaccinated in the older, more vulnerable groups of the population.
Yes but many, huge amounts even , will absolutely, definitely, no doubt about it be quarantining at home.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I wish the UK would take the Manx attitude to this ... and sling the non-compliant into the slammer.
(and their version of TT&I seems to work !)
teuchter
je suis teuchter
If the straight-ish deaths line continues on that trajectory then it is only about two weeks away from hitting zero.They are always two weeks behind so will probably level off at around err.... 8th March
So Mark Harper had it right all along? Typical Johnson, far too cautious and sensible.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
There is a little bit of a shallowing in the curve, but this drop in deaths can't be quick enough for me. There's been far too many already.
End of March, maybe, should see that rate down to nearly zero.
Unfortunately, I think there'll still be a few deaths most days this year.
souljacker
innit
August-September 2020 we were getting around 10 deaths a day. I'm sure I remember Scotland having a period of 0 deaths a day for a bit.
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