Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Wilf]

Amid the impressive overall vaccine rollout figures, care homes still a mess, amid a lot of vaccine hesitancy.

As a libertarian communist type, the 2nd word has come to the fore for me in the pandemic. I'm not up for coercion on the vaccine refuseniks, certainly, but the idea of unvaccinated carers working in homes/people's houses ain't great. Vaccine hesitancy draws on our unwillingness to trust governments, but also a swirling inability to trust anything/anybody. In part that comes back to the need to build vaccine messages (and the wider strategy) into real functioning communities. Got to be about persuasion but, crucially, from people you trust.

Half of care home staff at UK's largest provider have not had Covid vaccine | Society | The Guardian

 

[Looby]

Travel restrictions. And we can get Ed Sheeran to do a charity song. "Hurry Up Africa" or something.

I hear he’s having a break and we absolutely must not encourage him to come back any sooner than he has to.

 

[editor]

Sigh...

Covid social distancing rules on the Isle of Man have been scrapped by the government following a 25-day lockdown.
Restrictions were lifted at 00:01 GMT after the island recorded 20 days without an unexplained community case.
Healthcare services have returned to normal, all schools have reopened, and all shops and pubs have been allowed to welcome customers again.

Covid-19: Isle of Man ends second lockdown

The island scraps all social distancing measures after 20 days without an unexplained case.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Wilf]

Sigh...

Covid-19: Isle of Man ends second lockdown

The island scraps all social distancing measures after 20 days without an unexplained case.

www.bbc.co.uk

Right, I'll crank up the jet ski...

 

[Espresso]

I see we're getting another talking to this afternoon. Hancock today, apparently.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Daily reported figure are out.

18,607 new cases.

406 new deaths, that's down 186 on last Monday, bringing the 7-day average down to 1,147, from the 1,248 on the 23rd Jan.

Total first dose vaccinations now on just under 9.3 million.

 

[Wilf]

Daily reported figure are out.

18,607 new cases.

406 new deaths, that's down 186 on last Monday, bringing the 7-day average down to 1,147, from the 1,248 on the 23rd Jan.

Total first dose vaccinations now on just under 9.3 million.

Needless to say I'm delighted the vaccine programme is going well. Politically though, when we get to the point where the vaccine is really damping the figures down, the tories will be milking it for all it's worth. Despite their massive failure in every other aspect of the pandemic, they'll be trumpeting a hard slog, British ingenuity, the vaccination programme and getting the economy open. And with a current tory lead in the polls, fuck knows where that will take us. They almost certainly will open things up late Spring or early Summer, though cases and deaths will remain stubbornly high.

All of that assumes the South African variant or a further strain don't escape the vaccines, but we are certainly in for some triumphalism over vaccine delivery.

 

[cupid_stunt]

4-week comparison of the SE corner, is looking good.



Those three small areas of purple (Eastbourne, East Sussex + Crawley, West Sussex + Rushmoor, Hampshire) are on between 400 & 416.5 cases, so probably will show up as dark blue tomorrow, when the map is updated to the 28/1/21.

Worthing, highlighted on the south coast, is now down to 245 from a high of 720, still can't believe that happened when we were on only 25 at the start of Dec.

 

[StoneRoad]

Sigh...

Covid-19: Isle of Man ends second lockdown

The island scraps all social distancing measures after 20 days without an unexplained case.

www.bbc.co.uk

They do have the advantage of being a real island, with policies & contact tracing that work, plus enforced punishments for those breaking quarantine ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

They do have the advantage of being a real island, with policies & contact tracing that work, plus enforced punishments for those breaking quarantine ...

Aye, 2 or 3 months in prison for breaking quarantine.

 

[elbows]

Pretty damning article in the Telegraph today about how lockdown could last for yonks.. based on modelling from University of Warwick..

Exclusive: Social distancing may have to remain in place all year

View attachment 252233

The modelling done in that paper is also of great interest to anyone that wondered what would happen if all measures were scrapped and all behaviours went back to normal. The authors of the paper point out that these are extreme worst case scenarios that are thought to be incompatible with reality because when deaths rise peoples behaviours, and government decisions, inevitably change.

This for example is what they model as happening if all measures ended in April. Huge numbers well beyond anything we've seen so far.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdf

 

[StoneRoad]

Aye, 2 or 3 months in prison for breaking quarantine.

Even in the first lockdown, the Manx government were definitely not messing about with their requirements around quarantine - the few imported cases seen recently were thoroughly contact traced etc.

Unlike in the UK, business travel was not facilitated, even by government officials - someone I know was planning a meeting on the mainland in late July, but would have had to take unpaid leave for minimum of two weeks, and test -ve, on their return home. Meeting was held by email !

 

[2hats]

The modelling done in that paper is also of great interest to anyone that wondered what would happen if all measures were scrapped and all behaviours went back to normal.

The choice of modelled transmission blocking steps is quite illuminating.

 

[brogdale]

4-week comparison of the SE corner, is looking good.

View attachment 252337View attachment 252338

Those three small areas of purple (Eastbourne, East Sussex + Crawley, West Sussex + Rushmoor, Hampshire) are on between 400 & 416.5 cases, so probably will show up as dark blue tomorrow, when the map is updated to the 28/1/21.

Worthing, highlighted on the south coast, is now down to 245 from a high of 720, still can't believe that happened when we were on only 25 at the start of Dec.

Let's hope that the S.African community spread can be checked otherwise, in 4 weeks time, the map might not look so promising.

 

[editor]

Aye, 2 or 3 months in prison for breaking quarantine.

Could be worse

Inside UK's best little prison - where you're jailed for stealing rice krispies

Isle of Man's nick is known as the Jurby Hilton and you can serve time for hitting your mum on the head with a rolled up copy of Hello!

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

i see the government's buying new vaccines

UK Covid: Hancock says 'we need to come down hard' on South African variant after 105 cases identified - as it happened

Latest updates: UK records 18,607 further cases and 406 deaths; 9.2 million people have now had at least one vaccine dose

www.theguardian.com

i suppose they'll go to carefully selected individuals

 

[brogdale]

i see the government's buying new vaccines
View attachment 252345

UK Covid: Hancock says 'we need to come down hard' on South African variant after 105 cases identified - as it happened

Latest updates: UK records 18,607 further cases and 406 deaths; 9.2 million people have now had at least one vaccine dose

www.theguardian.com

i suppose they'll go to carefully selected individuals

It could be you!

 

[2hats]

i see the government's buying new vaccines
View attachment 252345

UK Covid: Hancock says 'we need to come down hard' on South African variant after 105 cases identified - as it happened

Latest updates: UK records 18,607 further cases and 406 deaths; 9.2 million people have now had at least one vaccine dose

www.theguardian.com

i suppose they'll go to carefully selected individuals

Phase I/II trials are still underway.

 

[Spandex]

4-week comparison of the SE corner, is looking good.

View attachment 252337View attachment 252338

Those three small areas of purple (Eastbourne, East Sussex + Crawley, West Sussex + Rushmoor, Hampshire) are on between 400 & 416.5 cases, so probably will show up as dark blue tomorrow, when the map is updated to the 28/1/21.

Worthing, highlighted on the south coast, is now down to 245 from a high of 720, still can't believe that happened when we were on only 25 at the start of Dec.

It is really good that case rates are falling, but "looking good" is a relative value.

Kent has been on the tightest level of the various restrictions in place since the second lockdown started on 5th November, when the map looked like this:



We've got a way to go yet

 

[David Clapson]

Right, I'll crank up the jet ski...

My confidence in the IoM government was dented when the road safety officer, who lives on the TT race course, backed his tipper truck on to the course while the racers were flying past. He'd forgotten the race was on.

 

[Pickman's model]

It is really good that case rates are falling, but "looking good" is a relative value.

Kent has been on the tightest level of the various restrictions in place since the second lockdown started on 5th November, when the map looked like this:

View attachment 252347

We've got a way to go yet

let's see what happens when we get the third wave

 

[Artaxerxes]

I see we're getting another talking to this afternoon. Hancock today, apparently.

Hancocks Half Arsed

 

[Spandex]

let's see what happens when we get the third wave

 

[Red Cat]

Colleague is off ventilator after 3 weeks. Apparently doing well, is stable. I don't really know what that means though.

 

[BigMoaner]

I see we're getting another talking to this afternoon. Hancock today, apparently.

He was only operating on a middling 80% Partridge, not his usual 97%+.

 

[BigMoaner]

let's see what happens when we get the third wave

If it weren't for my kids etc, if we get fifth sixth wave deep, I'd probably throw myself out of the car on the M1 thinking fuck this bullshit, Ive had enough.

 

[maomao]

Colleague is off ventilator after 3 weeks. Apparently doing well, is stable. I don't really know what that means though.

Stable means vital signs within normal levels.

 

[Pickman's model]

If it weren't for my kids etc, if we get fifth sixth wave deep, I'd probably throw myself out of the car on the M1 thinking fuck this bullshit, Ive had enough.

by the fifth or sixth wave the motorways will be jammed with people fleeing cities so the worst that would happen to you are some nasty abrasions from hitting the concrete

 

[two sheds]

.

 

[Red Cat]

Stable means vital signs within normal levels.

Yes, sorry I expressed myself poorly. I guess I mean I don't know what that means in terms of prognosis, whether she might get more poorly again, with infection or other illness, but she is communicating and has had contact with family. I didn't work as closely with her as others but its a huge relief and I'm not dreading opening work emails anymore, especially on a Monday (although I'm sure any more serious news would've been through teams not email).