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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

You think that people make decisions because of statistics?

Tbf that was very much how the article framed it. It made a direct link between a change in the stats, and people misunderstanding the reasons for that, and a recent development of increasing numbers of people refusing ventilation.

What Wilf said went also through my head while reading it, and an almost 50/50 chance of not waking up anymore from ventilation is of course terrifying.

The doctor quoted in the article (an ICU consultant) made the point though that patients who are being offered ventilation will be close to 100% likely to die without it. She attributed the increasing refusal directly to people's fear that the ventilator itself (rather than the severity of their illness) would make them more likely to die which she thought was in turn based on misunderstanding the facts.

So whilst the emotional component will of course be an important factor in the decision-making process, that emotional component will also be influenced by the perception of risk which can be influenced by an alarming (mis)representation of stats.
 
You know that having mobile hair dressers and cleaners etc in your home is legal, right?

Yeah, it was a bit daft, but legal at the time, so I can't blame him & his family for taking up the offer of free flights from BA to Barbados.

(Snip)

Unlike Petcha who's so vain his doesn't think lockdown applies to him.

* Yeah, let's bring a potential super-spreading mobile barber into my home, because my hair is looking a bit wild in zoom meetings. Seriously, WTF? :facepalm:
 
My parents have booked theirs for this week. They're in Lincolnshire and the vaccination centre is at the county showground which is miles outside Lincoln in the middle of nowhere. They have a car so no problem for them but I've no idea how they think it will work for anyone who doesn't drive. There aren't any buses.

My Dad's been giving lifts to vaccine appointments for the local old timers who can't drive. Great unless he, or any of them, have the covid. But getting a lift with a known person is probably the least worst option. Unlike a cabbie my dad's not driving around with other randoms sat in his car the rest of the time. Also a cab ride, with the kind of distance involved and in that part of the world, would cost a fortune. And there's maybe only one cab driver in a five mile radius anyway.
 
Hmm ok. This is a problem isn't it, previously they were aligned with cleaners but the details of the rules change so much it is hard to keep track!
Pretty sure mobile hairdressers have always been banned during lockdowns. Cleaners and nannies were allowed.
 
If by some miracle all of the vaccines worked as planned and prevented onward transmission, there's a chance that might be true (though it certainly wouldn't be from March as the 18-50 year olds won't have been vaccinated by then). All of that is of course unlikely to be true. But even more its the stupidity of saying it as it adds to the chorus of 'open the economy' coming from mad tory MPs. As you say, :facepalm:
 
In a close run and difficult competition he has always managed to be very near the front for first against the wall.

What a fuckwit! Spain have said they're unlikely to let people in on any sort of scale until they have vaccinated most of their population which, according to the minister announcing it, won't be until autumn.
 
My Dad's been giving lifts to vaccine appointments for the local old timers who can't drive. Great unless he, or any of them, have the covid. But getting a lift with a known person is probably the least worst option. Unlike a cabbie my dad's not driving around with other randoms sat in his car the rest of the time. Also a cab ride, with the kind of distance involved and in that part of the world, would cost a fortune. And there's maybe only one cab driver in a five mile radius anyway.
How has this been organised SpookyFrank ?

I'd be happy to mask up, fumingate my car and drive an elderly person to a vaccine centre, but the Red Cross won't allow me to carry someone in my car and I guess the risk is too high for charities to get involved. If I tried to organise this kind of thing, I'd get completely drowned in heath & safety stuff.

One lady I have been shopping for managed to struggle to the GP in a taxi with a sympathetic driver, another has cancelled her appointment as she is too ill at the moment. It's not just about transport, it needs someone to turn up with an umbrella, a fold up chair and a hot water bottle. The pictures of 80 year olds queuing in the rain are upsetting.
 
Yeah, I'm worried about that. Why do they not lockdown those areas under a very strict regime and do household testing door-to-door? A few weeks of that and might have a chance of getting on top of it.
I now know why the Kent hospital treating my 90YO FiL, who became Covid +ive whilst in there, discharged out so quickly to clear the bed.
 
Yeah, I'm worried about that. Why do they not lockdown those areas under a very strict regime and do household testing door-to-door? A few weeks of that and might have a chance of getting on top of it.

There will be some moves in that direction but they will be more about being seen to be doing something, and discovering the extent to which this strain is already present, than actually containing this strain.

In some regards this reminds me of the situation a year ago, where some were reassured about the governments noises about cases we were tracking down. But this was tip of the iceberg stuff, and the authorities knew it, there was no prospect of stopping things with their methods.

They should really try with these new strain cases anyway, but people will understand better how unlikely this is to be enough, when they discover more about the timing of the cases that are in the news today. I dont have a full picture of the timing yet but I would expect some of the detected cases to be from quite some time ago, and I have found this on the Guardians updates page which tends to confirm my suspicion:

1h ago 13:25

The person who tested positive for the South African strain was actually tested in December, the council said. This suggests that it was spreading within the community some weeks ago. (It can take a while for the new variant to be identified because, although test results can be turned around within 24 hours, the genomic sequencing which determines which variant of the virus has been found is more complicated and takes longer.)

Ealing council is asking residents living and working in parts of Hanwell and West Ealing to get a Covid-19 test, whether they have symptoms or not, after a local resident tested positive for the South African strain of the virus.

The individual is understood to have been tested for the virus at the end of December despite not having travelled to South Africa or been in contact with anyone else who had. The person, who is not being identified, is being praised for following all public health guidance and self-isolating. They have now made a full recovery.
 
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It's also much, much better for patients of that age to be discharged asap though (assuming medically fit for it), as every day in a hospital bed is detrimental for their long term health and mobility. There's even an equation in a study or something somewhere.
Yeah, good point...but he was discharged within 48 hrs of testing +ive and returned to a home exposing his wife (my MiL 88 YO) and the myriad of paras, care workers, assessments teams etc. that are required.
 
Pretty damning article in the Telegraph today about a great
Yeah, I'm worried about that. Why do they not lockdown those areas under a very strict regime and do household testing door-to-door? A few weeks of that and might have a chance of getting on top of it.
The Committee of Destruction Maximisation has rejected it today and are recommending some super spreader events in that region.
 
Fergus knows better than to listen too closely to lip service paid to containment, he seems to understand the purpose of the surge in testing for those areas.

 
Yep that's exactly what my wife's company are doing. It would be normal not to have a job booked in here or there, but now they furlough her for the day. When she started at the company a few months ago, they actually claimed furlough for her whole training period even though she was on site assisting (she didn't need to train per se as she was doing the same job she's done before, but companies still need to have a sign-off process).

Last night she did a night shift, now today they're trying to say she's furloughed again, even though it should be a rest day from last night! Very cheeky.

On top of this my wife's company have just told her they claim furlough for bank holiday and annual leave!!! (But top up to 100%, how generous).
 
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